2 Lessons Learned from the Twins 2023 Draft

Before we dig into some reflections on the Twins 2023 draft class, I wanted to provide a few notes on the second annual Consensus Draft Board. I ranked 311 players using nine industry boards and added 115 player write ups in what I believe to be the first and only board of its type available for the MLB Draft. Through six rounds of the draft (around 200 picks), 90% of players drafted were on the Consensus Board. By the end of the draft, only six college players I listed weren't drafted. I'm working on a more robust look at where prospects were drafted in relation to their consensus position compared to their ranking on others boards, but that's a work in progress. Thank you to everyone who used and engaged in it.

The Twins ‘Preferring College Players’ is a Myth Busted
For multiple years now, we’ve heard the refrain ‘Twins prefer college bats’ from draft analysts and in draft content (including here at Twins Daily, and including me). It’s time to put that narrative to bed. The Twins drafted prep players at 5 (Jenkins), 34 (Soto), 82 (Winokur), and 150 (Questad). High school players comprised four of the Twins first six picks.

Indeed, looking at the past 25 years of MLB Drafts, the Twins have taken college players on average 61.6% of the time, the fourth smallest percentage in MLB. By contrast, the Twins have taken high school players on average 38.1% of the time, the fourth highest percentage in MLB over that same span.

The transferable takeaway, then, is that trying to simplify the Twins preferences to a particular demographic is a far too reductionist approach. In a pre-draft interview with Darren Wolfson, Twins VP of Amateur Scouting Sean Johnson stated that the organization's goal is always to ‘lean into the strength of the draft’. That's a much more useful principle to center when considering Twins draft picks in future cycles.

The Twins Leaned into What They Excel at, Developing Arms
In addition to leaning into the strength of the Draft, MLB organizations with excellent talent recognition also lean into their player development strengths. The Marlins took Noble Meyer and Thomas White with their first two picks, for example. In the case of the Twins, it’s developing pitching and adding velocity to arms. 

Another misapplied principle in Twins organizational parlance is the idea of ‘Falvey’s pitching pipeline’, as we tend to fixate on arms who have contributed to the major league team, and in an even more hyper-focused fashion, on starting pitching. The Twins organization is flush with pitching in a variety of roles that has been exceptionally developed since the beginning of the Falvey regime.

At the major league level up to 40% of the Twins rotation this season has at times been pitchers the Twins drafted and developed in or after the 12th round (Bailey Ober and Louie Varland). Other pitchers at least partially developed in house that have contributed include Joe Ryan, Jhoan Duran, Jordan Balazovic, Brent Headrick, Griffin Jax, Jovani Moran, Brock Stewart, and Caleb Thielbar. Look through other levels of the minor leagues and you’ll find many more promising arms at various stages of the development continuum from David Festa and Marco Raya, to Cory Lewis and C.J. Culpepper. The Twins know how to develop arms.

In the 2023 draft, The Twins went on a college pitching run, selecting college pitchers in 12 consecutive picks between rounds seven and 18. Many of those pitchers are from smaller schools and colleges and have a pitch, a feature, or a quirk the Twins feel like they can meaningfully develop. To inspire confidence in this approach, we only need look back at the Twins 2022 draft, and the performance to date of arms drafted in similar rounds:

Zebby Matthews, RHP, 8th round (234th overall pick)
70.1 IP, 3.71 ERA, 77 K, 7 BB (A and A+ combined)

Cory Lewis, RHP, 9th round (264th overall pick)
63 IP, 2.29 ERA, 81 K, 21 BB (A and A+ combined)

C.J. Culpepper, RHP, 13th round (384th overall pick)
57.1 IP, 1.88 ERA, 61 K, 16 BB (A and A+ combined)

All three of these pitchers were drafted outside the top 200 picks, but have added velocity, have already been promoted to A+ Cedar Rapids in their first full professional seasons, and have excellent production. An extremely promising start to their careers with the organization.

While it's easy to look at an outlets pre-draft rankings and struggle to see why the Twins may not take a player ‘still on the board’, this is both the nature of the later rounds of the MLB draft and an excellent example of the Twins leveraging their strengths. After the outstanding early returns on 2022’s college pitching class, the Twins talent identification and player development should have the full confidence of fans in their ability to develop useful arms to contribute or trade for other assets.

Stay tuned in the next few weeks for an announcement from Jeremy Nygaard and me about how we’ll be expanding our coverage of the draft for the 2024 cycle. Thanks for reading and engaging since February. The Draft community at Twins Daily is the best.

Do you have any reflections or trends to share from the 2023 draft cycle? join the discussion with a comment below.

Check out our 2026 mock draft board, updated regularly, and with detailed player write-ups!