Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account
  • Twins News & Analysis

    What's A Realistic Timeline For Byron Buxton?


    Nick Nelson
    Image courtesy of Kim Klement, USA Today

    Twins Video

    I made my first trip of the year to Target Field last Friday, and had a fantastic time. It was a beautiful evening and the Twins played a very crisp ballgame, winning 1-0 behind a tremendous start from Kyle Gibson.

    Yet, as I looked around the park from my seats down the first base line, I couldn't help but feel a sense of disappointment with the sparsity of the crowd. The announced attendance of 22,794 -- their second-largest since Opening Day -- seemed overstated, with empty seats littering the lower deck.

    The Twins moved within a game of .500 that night, and by the end of the weekend they had a winning record. In the wake of a dreadful start, this team has been playing good ball, positioning itself for relevancy in the AL Central at least early on.

    But the fans, mired in apathy following a fourth straight 90-loss season, haven't responded by filling the stadium. Already the Twins have drawn fewer than 20,000 on five occasions; last year that happened once, in September.

    Continuing to win games at a solid clip will help bring back some wayward fans, but what this team needs is a spark plug that generates real excitement and gets the entire baseball world buzzing.

    They'll have one soon in Byron Buxton. But how soon?

    Buxton's allure goes beyond the fact that he's arguably the best prospect in the game. His dynamic skill set will make him appointment viewing, because he's capable of doing amazing things on a regular basis. That's been on display at Class-AA Chattanooga over his past 10 games, during which Buxton has batted .415 with five steals, four triples and two homers -- one of them a walk-off shot on Monday night.

    Not only will Buxton's arrival deliver an enormous marketing jolt, it will more importantly provide a huge boost on the field. He offers so many things that the Twins desperately need if they want to hang around as a contender in the AL Central.

    Offering elite speed along with the ability to draw walks and get on base, Buxton is a prototypical leadoff hitter. When you look at the production from the top three spots in the Twins' lineup, it is obvious that they could use one of those, as the struggles of Danny Santana and others have lessened the impact of the two spots that follow in the order (often occupied by Brian Dozier and Joe Mauer):

    No. 1 Hitter: .261/.289/.383

    No. 2 Hitter: .273/.322/.445

    No. 3 Hitter: .297/.374/.386

    Twins leadoff hitters have produced the lowest OBP of any spot in the lineup save for No. 9.

    Capable of running down any fly ball in his zip code and possessing a cannon arm, Buxton profiles as a premium defensive center fielder. The Twins have been trotting out a pseudo-platoon of Jordan Schafer and Shane Robinson in center up to this point, leaving much to be desired. Buxton would fill the biggest hole in the lineup while also substantially upgrading a porous outfield defense.

    Then there's this: In some capacity, Torii Hunter was supposedly brought on to serve in a mentorship role, but presently there aren't really any young players on the roster for him to help along -- not any that speak much English, anyway. Buxton is seemingly one of the players who stands to benefit most from Hunter's influence, but he can't do so in Chattanooga. With Hunter on a one-year deal, the Twins need to get their star prospect up in the somewhat near future if they want Hunter to be able to aid his transition to the majors.

    When you take all these things into account, it's easy to see why the Twins might feel a bit more urgency to bring Buxton along more quickly than they typically would. But of course, all of these factors are superseded by the importance of his development.

    They're not going to do anything that may negatively affect his ability to smoothly and successfully make the jump to the majors, nor should they. And despite his recent blazing hot streak, Buxton remains a 21-year-old coming off a lost season, with just 24 games of experience in Double-A.

    As badly as they were burned by the Aaron Hicks experience, one could understand the Twins opting for a conservative approach with their most prized asset, waiting until September or maybe even 2016 to consider a promotion regardless of his performance in the minors.

    However, I really can't emphasize this enough: Buxton is a different animal. He's a transcendent talent, on another level entirely from prospects such as Hicks or Danny Santana or Kennys Vargas. The Twins won't -- or at least shouldn't -- feel trepidation based on those past examples.

    Buxton's prospect caliber matches that of a young Joe Mauer, who was installed as a big-leaguer at age 21 after just 73 games in Double-A and caught on immediately. It matches Mike Trout, who was in the majors for good at age 20. It matches Kris Bryant, who was called up by the Cubs last month after just 181 total games in the minors, and is now excelling in Chi-town.

    Clearly, Buxton is not in line for an imminent promotion to the big leagues. He needs to continue working in Chattanooga for the time being, to prove that he's fully back on track and to keep building confidence.

    If he does both of those things for a couple of more months, and the All-Star break is approaching, and the Twins still need his services as badly as they do now?

    Why not?


    Want to play the role of Twins general manager? Check out our free-to-use "You're The GM" offseason tool and build your own Twins roster!

    Build Your 2027 Roster
    Want more Twins in your Google results? Add us as a preferred source.

    Follow Twins Daily For Minnesota Twins News & Analysis

    Recent Twins Articles

    Recent Twins Videos


    User Feedback

    Recommended Comments



    Featured Comments

     

    I think Mike is right. The way I understand it is that if they call him up in September (or at any point in 2015), his service odometer won't tick past 6.000 until late in the 2021 season, at which point he will become a free agent after that season. However, if they hold off in calling him up until next April 14th (or so), then his service odometer won't tick past 6.000 until early in the 2022 season. So I agree with Mike's logic - it makes no sense (from an asset management standpoint) to exchange 30-35 games this September when he will be a 21-year-old rookie for the entire 2022 season when he will be a 28 and in the prime of his career. 

     

    Or am I misunderstanding how the system works as well?

     

    That's assuming he comes up in September and never plays in the minor leagues again. Remember the concern that the Twins were losing a year on Hicks when he made the Opening Day Roster?  Heck, Mike Trout debuted in July of 2011 and still spent the first month in the minor leagues in 2012.

     

    The thing about gaining the extra year is the numbers are concrete. If he gets 30 days now. You just have to make sure he doesn't get 142 next year to get that extra year. He gets 141, you get the extra year.

     

    The most extreme - and worst-planned - example is Jose Fernandez. If the Marlins would have kept him down for 12 days, they get an extra year... instead he makes the roster, starts the 6th and 11th games (11 innings total) and they lose a year of him. They could have kept him down, had him start the 13th game and kept him. Pretty costly 5-inning debut.

     

    Overwhelmingly, the consensus of the commenters on this thread is that Buxton will (or should) be up in a matter of weeks.

     

    I wonder what the majority vote would have been four weeks ago. My guess is "a year away." "By September" was a minority vote, don't you think?

     

    Crazy game, this baseball.

     

    Not me.  At the time I said to expect by June to see Buxton in the top ten in multiple hitting categories in the Southern League- he's already eclipsed my timeline .  The dude was, is, and will be, the real deal- people still don't appreciate enough what he had to overcome in the aftermath of a nightmare 2014.   

     

    That's assuming he comes up in September and never plays in the minor leagues again. Remember the concern that the Twins were losing a year on Hicks when he made the Opening Day Roster?  Heck, Mike Trout debuted in July of 2011 and still spent the first month in the minor leagues in 2012.

     

    The thing about gaining the extra year is the numbers are concrete. If he gets 30 days now. You just have to make sure he doesn't get 142 next year to get that extra year. He gets 141, you get the extra year.

     

    The most extreme - and worst-planned - example is Jose Fernandez. If the Marlins would have kept him down for 12 days, they get an extra year... instead he makes the roster, starts the 6th and 11th games (11 innings total) and they lose a year of him. They could have kept him down, had him start the 13th game and kept him. Pretty costly 5-inning debut.

    Based on the Marlins track record, they don't care about this calculation, they just bring up the best players.

     

    Based on the Marlins track record, they don't care about this calculation, they just bring up the best players.

     

    I think this statement needs a caveat.  Not too long ago, they were regarded as the cheapest and/or ownership group with very little integrity and as of lately have made decisions that counter that reputation.

     

    Remember 2012 when he basically traded every player on his team making more than the minimum.

     

    The thing about gaining the extra year is the numbers are concrete. If he gets 30 days now. You just have to make sure he doesn't get 142 next year to get that extra year. He gets 141, you get the extra year.

    But that means if you call him up for September 2015, you have to keep him down until almost June 2016 to get that extra year.  Given the options the Twins currently have, if Buxton plays even modestly well, it might be very difficult to keep him down that long in 2016.

     

    The Angels did not extend their years of control in their demotions of Mike Trout.  (Of course, he was up for about 2 months in 2011, and down for less than a month to begin 2012.)

     

    I think this statement needs a caveat.  Not too long ago, they were regarded as the cheapest and/or ownership group with very little integrity and as of lately have made decisions that counter that reputation.

     

    Remember 2012 when he basically traded every player on his team making more than the minimum.

    That is also true.  But they are not shy about promoting prospects (and they have a very good track record about it).

    Sorry to be echoing some very intelligent responses, but it's not numbers...or even a date...its approach. I don't care if Buxton is only hitting .250, as long as his approach is sound, he's taking walks and not striking out, and playing great defense and not making blunders on the base paths. I mean, what if he's doing everything perfect, with a .400 OB% but just hitting in to tough luck and being pitched around. Would you hold him back because of a low BA?

     

    Likewise, what if he's hitting over .300 but has a .350 OB, is only stealing bases at a 60% clip and making some tracking or throwing errors in the OF. Do you promote him because of his BA and you feel desperate?

     

    Don't mess with Byron. With a name like that, you know he's going to be great. (Wink) I don't know if TR's trip is going to be a decision maker or not, but my guess he gets all or most of May yet, then hits Rochester around June 1st. That would give him...potentially now...2 months of AA, 2 months of AAA, with the idea of coming up to the Twins around August 1st.

     

    I don't want to lose extra service time with Buxton either. And hopefully when he is up, he's up for good. And he probably will be. But if Buxton is close to the player he's expected to be, service time won't be an issue. Do you really think the Twins will just re-up him year to year? Or is it more likely he will be signed to something longer term anyway?

     

    BTW...except for the name thing...this applies almost identically to Sano as well.

     

    The most extreme - and worst-planned - example is Jose Fernandez. If the Marlins would have kept him down for 12 days, they get an extra year... instead he makes the roster, starts the 6th and 11th games (11 innings total) and they lose a year of him. They could have kept him down, had him start the 13th game and kept him. Pretty costly 5-inning debut.

    With a pitching prospect (and to a lesser degree, any prospect), the value of an extra season of control 7 years from now is highly speculative.  If you are confident in your current evaluation of him (and the Marlins track record suggests such confidence is warranted), I'd rather err on the side of present-day performance.

     

    Look at the Twins and Liriano -- they did not play any service time games with him in 2005-2006, and in fact didn't get much value out of his first 3 months service time either (September call-up and then almost 2 months of mop-up bullpen work).  But his later injury (not unexpected, by the way) made it all moot in terms of cost/leverage.

     

    Lo and behold, Fernandez also suffered a not-unpredictable injury.  He hasn't lost any service time due to it yet, but his lost season will likely lower his future cost and leverage (and his recovery may easily warrant a minor league assignment which could gain them that extra year of control anyway), even if he does eventually return to being a star pitcher.

    If Buxton continues to hit like he has the last week in change and its June or mid june I say call him up. His speed alone with his defense will save runs and hes a different animal then Hicks is so skipping AAA shouldn't matter all that much. If he can give the twins a jolt  it will help the team.  

    Let's hope he forces Ryan's hand in 4-5 weeks.......or 6......

     

    So, I'm not totally wrong, or totally right, about the numbers.....but if he does not ever go back down, it looks like calling him up in September is a bad idea.

     

    Would you take that risk? I would not.

     

    thanks to those of you that politely discussed this part. Appreciated.

    Realistic?

     

    Depends on whether the Twins will (gulp) keep contending this season, depends on the performance of the other outfielders, his performance the rest of the season and injuries.  I got to think that Hicks is next in line as he is out of options next season and leads all the Twins' OFs in any level with a .318/.396/.545 slash.  It is boarderline ridiculous that he is not with the Twins at this point.

     

    Don't forget that Arcia will have a spot and Hunter will have another (realistically, pending injuries or trades.)

     

    I just cannot see it happening in 2015. 

     

    Would I mind it if they jettison or bench Hunter for a Hicks-Buxton-Arcia OF?  Nope.  But realistically it's not happening...

    Molitor said it was a temporary stay and Hicks has demonstrated that his confidence at the plate is fragile, at best, in the big leagues. Bouncing him up and down would not serve much purpose.

     

    Buxton's development is surely a crucial var in determining his callup date, but it would be somewhat naive to discount the role his Super Two status plays into his eventual callup. If big market teams like the Angels and Cubs (with regard to service time, not Super Two) play games to tack on a year of player control, it is surely a powerful force in their decision-making process.

     

    However, if the stadium remains less than 67% full after school lets out, I would wager July 24th as the date. He has, with the exception of any lingering injury doubts, proved almost everything he has to in the minor leagues. His only scuffling had to do with freak injuries last season. There is a high probability that he will excel from day one as a major leaguer, especially considering a five tool star can struggle in one or two areas and still have a positive impact on the team.

    Buxton is tearing it up at Chattanooga.  I don't think he is going to be a minor league player for very much longer.  Forget projections, his glove and his speed is elite and major league right now.  Even if he comes up and stinks with the bat, because of the rest of his tools, I can't imagine him not being an improvement over what we have in center field right now.

     

    All winter I've been listening to posters complain about the team not investing in a center fielder.  More and more I'm becoming convinced the team has believed they had one all along.

     

    I'm really loving the way the team is starting to come together and a Buxton promotion would be the icing on the cake.

     

    It is boarderline ridiculous that he [Hicks] is not with the Twins at this point.

     

    There is nothing ridiculous about it.  They gave the guy every chance to succeed.  They traded Span and then Revere to make room for him.  I think Hicks will be back at some point, but not anytime soon.

     

    Buxton is the Twins guy now.  I think Buxton makes his debut before Hicks gets another chance.

    Buxton is the top prospect in baseball and the twins are only 2.5 games out of first. Ya some of that is smoke and mirrors and he may not be the next Mike Trout but I'm surprised more people aren't in favor of pushing him through. No need to slow cook, look whose "blocking" him.

     

    EDIT: meant may NOT be the next Mike Trout 

     

    Buxton is the top prospect in baseball and the twins are only 2.5 games out of first. Ya some of that is smoke and mirrors and he may be the next Mike Trout but I'm surprised more people aren't in favor of pushing him through. No need to slow cook, look whose "blocking" him.

     

    While Buxton is a totally rare talent and I like some soft pushing up through the minors, I do think that a modicum of caution is warranted to make sure that he isn't over his head completely at the plate initially. That is mostly going to have to due with the breaking ball, so I personally would like him moved to AAA pretty quickly just to see the different pitches that those kind of pitchers throw. 

     

    And as far as defense goes, Aaron Hicks was "major league ready" defensively since 2011 or 2012. Well, something is wrong there. I don't want something weird to be the case with Buxton too (about route-taking, I guess).

     

    While Buxton is a totally rare talent and I like some soft pushing up through the minors, I do think that a modicum of caution is warranted to make sure that he isn't over his head completely at the plate initially. That is mostly going to have to due with the breaking ball, so I personally would like him moved to AAA pretty quickly just to see the different pitches that those kind of pitchers throw. 

     

    And as far as defense goes, Aaron Hicks was "major league ready" defensively since 2011 or 2012. Well, something is wrong there. I don't want something weird to be the case with Buxton too (about route-taking, I guess).

     

    These are valid points, specifically about the breaking ball.  We need our scouts to confirm that he won't be exposed against major league breaking balls.

     

    While Buxton is a totally rare talent and I like some soft pushing up through the minors, I do think that a modicum of caution is warranted to make sure that he isn't over his head completely at the plate initially. That is mostly going to have to due with the breaking ball, so I personally would like him moved to AAA pretty quickly just to see the different pitches that those kind of pitchers throw. 

     

    And as far as defense goes, Aaron Hicks was "major league ready" defensively since 2011 or 2012. Well, something is wrong there. I don't want something weird to be the case with Buxton too (about route-taking, I guess).

    Your ideology is probably more rational and I'd be down for a AAA stint before the show. Just that as highly as he's touted, he's much more of a can't miss than Hicks, Arcia, or anyone outside of Joe Mauer has ever been in the Twins system so that's why I'm surprised the majority of posters are a bit leery (if that's the right word) of his talents.

     

    Your ideology is probably more rational and I'd be down for a AAA stint before the show. Just that as highly as he's touted, he's much more of a can't miss than Hicks, Arcia, or anyone outside of Joe Mauer has ever been in the Twins system so that's why I'm surprised the majority of posters are a bit leery (if that's the right word) of his talents.

     

    I think it is just tempered expectations because there have been no success stories out of the system for awhile other than Dozier, Plouffe, and Gibson, and the second one took quite awhile, the third one is getting pretty lucky this year, and Dozier was a bit fluky. 




    Create an account or sign in to comment

    You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

    Create an account

    Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

    Register a new account

    Sign in

    Already have an account? Sign in here.

    Sign In Now

×
×
  • Create New...