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Oswaldo Arcia debuted in the majors in 2013 at the age of 22, and last year he played in 103 games as a sophomore. Between the two campaigns he hit .241/.302/.441, and while his .743 OPS over that span may not seem terribly impressive, it was above average and that's a rare achievement for such a young hitter. Additionally, his 34 home runs were the third-most of any under-24 player in the big leagues, trailing only Mike Trout and Yasiel Puig.
While he certainly had his warts, it was clear that Arcia had the makings of an imposing offensive threat, as his monster numbers in the minor leagues had foretold. The natural assumption was that the slugger would slot into the middle of the Minnesota lineup for many years to come.
Opening the season as the regular right fielder, Arcia was off to a decent start this season, batting .276/.338/.379 through 19 games, but he landed on the disabled list in early May and since then things have deteriorated to the point where his future with the Twins looks extremely murky.
Arcia's hip injury healed up within a few weeks and he was ready to return to the field in late May. He reported to Rochester for a rehab assignment and went 0-for-11 in his first four games, so the Twins -- pleased with the impact of Eddie Rosario in the outfield -- elected to option Arcia and keep him in Triple-A. At the time, that seemed like a temporary move, but two-and-a-half months later, Arcia remains stuck in the minors, and he's doing very little to help his case.
Following a torrid stretch in early July in which he smashed eight home runs in 13 games, pushing himself to the brink of a recall, Arcia has fallen in the tank worse than ever. Since the International League All-Star break ended on July 16th, Arcia is hitting .125/.220/.225 in 24 games, with strikeouts in 30 percent of his plate appearances.
His overall .221/.286/.407 line with the Red Wings would look bad for any 24-year-old corner outfielder, but is almost unfathomable from a guy who has been a successful big-league hitter for two years and had previously torched Triple-A to the tune of .312/.388/.595.
Something's going on here. I can surmise three possibilities:
1) He's hurt. It would hardly be the first time. Injuries have plagued Arcia in recent years, causing him to miss significant time in both 2013 and 2014. Maybe his hip issue from earlier this season has reemerged, or maybe something new is affecting him. Whatever the case, there have been no specific reports of any ongoing health problems for Arcia in Triple-A (although he did leave Thursday's game after getting hit in the knee with a pitch).
2) He's sulking. Arcia is a pretty emotional guy. He pumps his fists enthusiastically after big hits and slams his bat down after strikeouts. Could it be that his frustration with being mired in Triple-A after establishing himself as a big-league hitter is hampering his performance? I tend to doubt it but wouldn't rule it out.
3) He has gotten fundamentally worse as a hitter. Or maybe he's just slumping. He has been a pretty streaky hitter in the past. But this slump is dragging on and on, against pitchers that Arcia should be feasting against, and has in the past. Have opponents figured out new ways to take advantage of Arcia's lacking discipline? Has he gotten in his own head too much or screwed up his mechanics? Whatever the issues, he and Rochester hitting coach Tim Doherty have thus far been unable to solve them.
Given that the Twins are almost completely focused on building toward contention over the next couple years, having a key young piece like Arcia play his way out of their plans is painful. The silver lining here is that Eddie Rosario and Aaron Hicks are doing enough for the Twins right now to position themselves as quality options for entrenchment alongside Byron Buxton in the outfield going forward, while Max Kepler's marvelous season at Chattanooga adds to the encouraging youthful depth.
Still, one has to wonder just what has happened to Arcia's once-promising bat, and what the Twins will do with him this offseason now that his minor-league options have dried up.
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