Twins 1, Blue Jays 3: Big Walks Keep on Turning, Blue Jays Keep on Burning (the Twins)

Let's face the facts.  Nothing much has changed the past two seasons and now this one.  Same boring team, same boring manager, same boring results.

11 hours ago, jkcarew said:

Blue Jays were 2-8 in their last ten…not exactly rolling.

The pinch hitting for Kirilloff (while he’s been hitting fine and showing power, no less) with the likes of Solano and now Castro…and early in games as well…Is this not inexcusable? Or just embarrassing? Or is it just me?

It's not just you... it has become a golden rule not to be broken, only club in the bag type move that is being consistently made and I openly question it along with ya. 

Let's look at everyone involved. 

Tim Mayza - Left Hander - The Only Left hander in the Jays Bullpen. Mayza has been real good this year primarily as a left handed specialist.

This Year - Sample Size 18.2 Innings

.543 OPS (40 AB's) vs Left Handed Batters - .573 OPS (30 AB's) vs Right

Mayza has been real tough against both sides of the plate this year. It's a small sample size but based on this year... It doesn't matter if he is facing a lefty or righty. He's been equally lights out good against both but you can see by facing more lefties than righties... he is deployed to take on left handed hitters. That is his role.   

Over his career... his splits are much more pronounced and they suggest he is indeed a left handed specialist with a .772 OPS against right compared to a .565 OPS against left. 

This year says it doesn't really matter but his career will suggest that your odds are better with a right handed hitter facing him. Rocco is justified to match up.  

However... Willi Castro?  

Willi Castro - Switch hitter

This Year - Sample Size 89 AB's 

Vs. Left - 38 AB's - .237 BA - .694 OPS 

Vs. Right - 51 AB's - .255 BA - .688 OPS

Career - Sample Size 1,096 AB's

Vs. Left - 329 AB's - .271 BA - .709 OPS

Vs. Right - 767 AB's - .235 BA - .660 OPS

His career numbers suggest that Castro is slightly better against left handers but... let's be clear... His 2023 numbers and his career numbers suggest that he isn't really a good hitter against either hand. 

Let's look at Alex Kirilloff:

He has had 9 AB's this year against lefties... 2 hits including a home run off of Matt Moore in California. But... let's not draw any conclusion on 9 AB's. So let's go straight to his career numbers which as we all know has been complicated by injuries. 

Career numbers:

Vs. Left - 111 AB's - .248 BA - .721 OPS 

Vs. Right - 340 AB's - .256 BS - .716 OPS

Kirilloff is a wash but still better than Castro against left handers. 

I'll concede that Mayza by himself is a reason to bring in a right hander but doesn't it still matter if that right handed bat has any talent. 

Some additional questions: 

1st Question: If you are concerned at all about Mayza and his deployment against your lefties and Rocco clearly is because he pinch hit a worse hitter standing on the correct side of the plate. Why that batting order?

Why was Kirilloff hitting 4th and Julien hitting 6th. Wallner and Gallo didn't start, Castro a switch hitter was also on the bench. There were only two left handed hitters in the starting lineup last night and you had one of them 4th and the other 6th so they both could be impacted by the left handed specialist coming out of the bullpen. Wouldn't it make more sense to bat Julien 8th in the order to make Mayza go through 3 right handers before getting to the next lefty. In other words he wouldn't. 

2nd Question: Why does platoon split data seem to over ride all of the other metrics that should be making it's way down to field level? There are a gaggle of analysts working for your organization gathering data, they shouldn't be repeating work so therefore lots of analysts should equate to lots and lots of different data.

Why does the hand of the pitcher seem to be the only thing that causes an adjustment in the batting order. An 0 for 25 streak won't cause an adjustment to the batting order so why does the left handed pitcher/right handed pitcher standing on the mound seem to trump every single data point. I'm going to assume that there are a lot of other data points that suggest that Kirilloff is a better hitter than Castro. Why does that data get over ruled?  

Bunch of questions: Are there minor league splits that suggest that Kirilloff should be platooned? Are you training him to only face right handed pitching? If the Twins make the playoffs... is it your plan to have Kirilloff sit against left handed pitching?  

I'm not anti-platoon... I'm anti blind strict adherence to the platoon and it appears to be what is happening. 

BTW... Because I find it funny... and not to imply that it was Nostradamus-ish. In another thread... I was joking around with @chpettit19 and I said... that deploying Mayza early would deplete the options early so Garlick would have to face a right hander at the end of the game.  

And it happened... Turns out it wasn't Garlick... It was Castro who came around in the order again after facing the masterful Mayza.

Garlick started the game against a right hander surprise surprise which never happens. He drove in the only run of the game against a right hander and Castro... was able to single to keep the game alive against a right hander in the 9th after coming in as a specialist to battle the left handed dragon. So... basically none of these lefty/righty shenanigans mattered in a situation by situation sample. 

I'm going to continue to support my team and front office and coaching staff but I'm going to continue to ask. Are we just platooning for the sake of platooning. What is going on? Can we just start looking for hitters that can hit.   

Sincerely,

Riverbrian

I remain concerned about the hitting but I actually saw last night as positive. They didn't chase that much, they worked the count. 

In the end... it didn't work out but if they can keep that up... things will get better. 

I was not a big proponent for automated strike zones and always told the kids I coached to adjust to the ump's zone, but this has become borderline ridiculous. Last night's home plate umpire graded out at 1.93 runs in favor of Toronto. The Twins were working the count and laying off of bad pitches, only to be called out looking several times on pitches out of the zone. How does a team adjust to an inconsistent umpire? While 5 hits is not a good game, an umpire rewarding wild pitching with strike calls literally took the bat out of the team's hands.

1 hour ago, Ricky Vaughn said:

If the lack of hitting keeps up the pitchers will start feeling like they have to be perfect. Then the mistakes will start. suddenly the score will be 8-1 instead of 3-1

That’s a great point. I start missing four footers and the pressure on my short game ramps up considerably. What you suggest re our pitchers is absolutely a real thing.

1 hour ago, wornsmooth said:

Good post.

It is also hard to both beat a good team AND the umps.

Taylor had an RBI walk changed by fiat to a K.

A game changer. Instead of a one run game with bases still loaded, well, we had what we had.

The Twins have been flat since umpiring took a well played game from them in LA, then changed a well pitched game by Lopez into a mess.

Yeah, I know, good teams get over it etc.

But this is getting old watching flagrant umpiring flubs.

Sorry, yes the umps have had their moments, but c’mon we can’t blame our ineptitude on the the umps. Next it will be injuries. Then it will be something else.  Good teams win; bad teams make excuses. 

7 hours ago, Mark G said:

I am.  Crap, right now I would settle for Refsynder (..286 with a .409 OBP).  😏

Somewhat tongue in cheek; but seriously, enough of the OPS being the gold standard.  Our two power hitters are slashing (and I use that term loosely) .211 and .231.  Gallo has 24 hits and 17 are for extra bases.  The other almost 4 out of 5 times?  Buck has just over half his hits for extra bases.  Between the 2?  Just over 35% strike out rate.  As h2oface points out walks just load the bases, so walking them doesn't necessarily hurt a pitcher, and if any of the 21 home runs between them had come with the bases loaded..........I can't let myself think about it.  Enough of the all or nothing golf swings.  Just hit the ball.  Then we will talk about average with balls put in play.  To some of us that beats the solo home run every 3 or 4 (or 5.......) games.  Between Louis, Gio, and Ref, I would take their numbers right now over virtually anyone on this roster.  For all our slugging percentage, we have scored TWO runs or less in exactly 1/3 of our games as of now, and 3 or less not counting extra innings (where you get a ghost runner) over half, so what has it done for us?  Give me the hitters; you can keep the sluggers.  

You would have hated Harmon Killebrew.

Gio Urshella doesn’t make the team better. He  might make it funner to watch for some here. More wins? No.