Keith Law Rankings

[cmb0252]

I'm definitely on the Thorpe bandwagon. If he wasn't from Australia he would be entering into this years draft because of his age. Callis mentioned awhile ago if he was in this years draft he would be a first round grade talent which is high praise. I know most people will be watching AA/AAA this year to follow our hitters but I'm honestly most excited to watch the pitchers in low A. I can't remember the last time I was this excited about a group of young arms.

[cmathewson]

Count me as one on the Thorpe bandwagon. He's in my top 10, ahead of Berrios. I wouldn't have said that before the Australian Winter League. I know it's probably at the level of the Midwest League, but he thoroughly dominated in all but one game. He was pitching against guys in their 20s. Impressive.

[bird]

Count me as one on the Thorpe bandwagon. He's in my top 10, ahead of Berrios. I wouldn't have said that before the Australian Winter League. I know it's probably at the level of the Midwest League, but he thoroughly dominated in all but one game. He was pitching against guys in their 20s. Impressive.

 

Good point about Thorpe's test results from the Aussie winter league, against experienced hitters that know how to swing a wooden bat.

 

I've been thinking about Vielma, particularly in light of how completely meaningless the statistics are from the Dominican Summer League in forecasting success for position players. Maybe we shouldn't be too quick to dismiss him. Let's hope he's that good!

[twinsfan34]

Count me as one on the Thorpe bandwagon. He's in my top 10, ahead of Berrios. I wouldn't have said that before the Australian Winter League. I know it's probably at the level of the Midwest League, but he thoroughly dominated in all but one game. He was pitching against guys in their 20s. Impressive.

 

Wow, me too. Totally forgot about the Aussie Winter League...despite having just visited there a few weeks earlier.

 

Thorpe's game log:

http://web.theabl.com.au/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=l595&t=p_pbp&pid=626929

 

Other Pitchers in the Aussie Lg:

http://web.theabl.com.au/stats/stats.jsp?t=l_pit&sid=l595&lid=595

[Zephrin]

Sano at 8 is ridiculous. Typical KLaw and his Twins hating ways....

 

Baseball Prospectus has Sano at #14, so it seems like his "struggles" to adjust to AA pitching took a bit of shine off. Had he stayed in Ft. Meyers and continued mashing (not unreasonable at his age) he would probably be higher up this list, but less close to playing for the Twins.

[wagwan]

Wow, me too. Totally forgot about the Aussie Winter League...despite having just visited there a few weeks earlier.

 

Thorpe's game log:

http://web.theabl.com.au/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=l595&t=p_pbp&pid=626929

 

Other Pitchers in the Aussie Lg:

http://web.theabl.com.au/stats/stats.jsp?t=l_pit&sid=l595&lid=595

 

Many of those pitchers are in their mid to late twenties... the kid is doing well

[Steve Lein]

I hadn't seen that velo number. I've seen "touches 94 and sits at 92." That's not Radke stuff. That's Hughes stuff.

 

From a velocity standpoint, yes. But it's also his fastball that can become very hittable (the whole height and no downward plane thing), that's my main comment about needing Radke's pinpoint command of all his pitches to be a front-line guy. It's his development in that area that will make or break him, not his stuff, is what I'm saying I guess.

[B Richard]

Is Thorpe going to get any rest at all before the start of full season ball? I would really not like to overwork the kid, especially as he is developing

[Steve Lein]

Is Thorpe going to get any rest at all before the start of full season ball? I would really not like to overwork the kid, especially as he is developing

 

He last pitched on January 2nd, and his Melbourne team didn't make the playoff's (the championship is this weekend), so he's theoretically been resting for a month now.

 

I would suspect, if they have plans to pitch him in Cedar Rapids this year, that he also doesn't start the year on their roster, but stays back in EST for a month or so. Not really any reasoning behind that other than they didn't move him up to E-Town at all in 2013, but it wouldn't surprise me.

[B Richard]

He last pitched on January 2nd, and his Melbourne team didn't make the playoff's (the championship is this weekend), so he's theoretically been resting for a month now.

 

I would suspect, if they have plans to pitch him in Cedar Rapids this year, that he also doesn't start the year on their roster, but stays back in EST for a month or so. Not really any reasoning behind that other than they didn't move him up to E-Town at all in 2013, but it wouldn't surprise me.

 

That sounds like a reasonable plan. I'm very excited to see some of the talent further down in our system get it going this year

[diehardtwinsfan]

I wonder if him not moving up to Etown had something to do with the fact that he was still in high school last season.

[cmathewson]

I wonder if him not moving up to Etown had something to do with the fact that he was still in high school last season.

 

It had everything to do with that.

[Thrylos]

Count me as one on the Thorpe bandwagon. He's in my top 10, ahead of Berrios. I wouldn't have said that before the Australian Winter League. I know it's probably at the level of the Midwest League, but he thoroughly dominated in all but one game. He was pitching against guys in their 20s. Impressive.

 

 

Here are his game logs:

 

Actually he just dominated in one out of 7 games (the 12/8 game; 7 IP, 0BB, 8K, 1H)

He had another very good game (12/13: 6.2 IP, 4 H, 5 K)

He had 3 decent games (11/24, 12/21 & 2/2)

and 2 horrible games (11/30 and 12/27.)

 

Encouraging? Of course. But not "dominating" (other than one game) and the jury is still out. The quality of the Aussie league is below independent leagues at this point...

[cmathewson]

Here are his game logs:

 

Actually he just dominated in one out of 7 games (the 12/8 game; 7 IP, 0BB, 8K, 1H)

He had another very good game (12/13: 6.2 IP, 4 H, 5 K)

He had 3 decent games (11/24, 12/21 & 2/2)

and 2 horrible games (11/30 and 12/27.)

 

Encouraging? Of course. But not "dominating" (other than one game) and the jury is still out. The quality of the Aussie league is below independent leagues at this point...

 

Are we looking at the same thing? I see one bad game. I see several good games and a few dominant games. This is a matter of interpretation, and you seem only too quick to dismiss his efforts. Do you have a thing against foreign prospects not from the Caribbean? You have the same hypercritical attitude about Kepler.

[Thrylos]

Are we looking at the same thing? I see one bad game. I see several good games and a few dominant games. This is a matter of interpretation, and you seem only too quick to dismiss his efforts. Do you have a thing against foreign prospects not from the Caribbean? You have the same hypercritical attitude about Kepler.

 

I think that it is semantics. I have nothing against foreign prospects or players (huge Luke Hughes fan). For me "dominant" was his single 1 hit 8 K effort. The rest are "good", "very good", "ok" and not so good. I cannot say that someone dominated if he pitched 5 innings gave 4 hits and walked 3. Sorry. He needs to show more to say that he is a top 10 prospect at this system. He is still a child. He has a great future potentially, but still some ways to go.

Kepler is a different story. He had one of 4 great seasons. The tools are there, but they need to translate to results for me. If he puts a 900 OPS season at A+ this season, call me a believer. He is the same age as Travis Harrison. Compare their results at CR last season.

[cmathewson]

I think that it is semantics. I have nothing against foreign prospects or players (huge Luke Hughes fan). For me "dominant" was his single 1 hit 8 K effort. The rest are "good", "very good", "ok" and not so good. I cannot say that someone dominated if he pitched 5 innings gave 4 hits and walked 3. Sorry. He needs to show more to say that he is a top 10 prospect at this system. He is still a child. He has a great future potentially, but still some ways to go.

Kepler is a different story. He had one of 4 great seasons. The tools are there, but they need to translate to results for me. If he puts a 900 OPS season at A+ this season, call me a believer. He is the same age as Travis Harrison. Compare their results at CR last season.

 

OK, and I am not interested in arguing about semantics. But I will say your definition is on the stringent side. I was looking at the run column. If you pitch 5 or more innings (in winter ball, where they are trying to protect you) and give up one run or fewer in seven out of eight games, I would say your season was dominant. When you are 18 and playing against a bunch of 24 year olds, many of whom are at high A or higher, it validates dominance.

 

When Johan was winning Cy Youngs, he would have maybe one "dominant" game per month, by your definition. The rest of the time, he'd give up one or two runs over seven innings. His best seasons can rightly be described as dominant, even though he only had a shutout going with double digit strikeouts after seven innings once every five games or so.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think that it is semantics. I have nothing against foreign prospects or players (huge Luke Hughes fan). For me "dominant" was his single 1 hit 8 K effort. The rest are "good", "very good", "ok" and not so good. I cannot say that someone dominated if he pitched 5 innings gave 4 hits and walked 3. Sorry. He needs to show more to say that he is a top 10 prospect at this system. He is still a child. He has a great future potentially, but still some ways to go.

Kepler is a different story. He had one of 4 great seasons. The tools are there, but they need to translate to results for me. If he puts a 900 OPS season at A+ this season, call me a believer. He is the same age as Travis Harrison. Compare their results at CR last season.

 

Which is fair enough, everyone has their own definition of "dominant" or "good".

 

But I think you're being a bit harsh on the kid, if only because he's just wrapping up his age 17 season.

 

Those are some pretty outstanding performances from a kid who couldn't buy a pack of smokes in the US until November of 2013.

 

We have to keep in mind that 2014 is Thorpe's age 18 season. He's over a year younger than Kohl Stewart.

[Nate Haseman]

His BB/K rates are encouraging. So is his fastball. Personally, I would like to see him have success against hitters who are used to the wooden bat for a bit, instead of kids who just made the transition from aluminum to wood (that's what the GCL is) to call him a top ten prospect ahead of pitchers like May, Gonsalves and Eades. Let him have some success in E-town or CR and develop a good out pitch and I will join that bandwagon.

 

The adjustment from aluminum to wood isn't as drastic as it was pre-2011. The BBCOR bats that high school and college level ballplayers use now don't have much more pop than a good stick of maple, just a slightly bigger sweet spot. But I'm with ya, I want to see him face a few guys that can legally buy a beer before I'm calling shotgun on the Thorpe bandwagon.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I get that dominating can be different to different people. But remember the kid just turned 18, and much of his competition has had success at much tougher levels.... Luke Hughes mashed at AA one season. I get the whole league quality thing, but I see a kid who is excelling against competition that is much more advanced... quality of the league aside. To me, that's a great pospect.

 

I know this, I'll be following him this season.

[bird]

Here are his game logs:

 

Actually he just dominated in one out of 7 games (the 12/8 game; 7 IP, 0BB, 8K, 1H)

He had another very good game (12/13: 6.2 IP, 4 H, 5 K)

He had 3 decent games (11/24, 12/21 & 2/2)

and 2 horrible games (11/30 and 12/27.)

 

Encouraging? Of course. But not "dominating" (other than one game) and the jury is still out. The quality of the Aussie league is below independent leagues at this point...

 

You are bound to be challenged, thrylos, when you dismiss the results in the Aussie league by describing the league as underwhelming. You also dismissed his spectacular performance in the GCL by writing it off as competing against a bunch of kids struggling with a wooden bat. And yet, while ranking Thorpe as your #18 prospect because the GCL inflated his numbers, you ranked a virtually unknown GCL teammate Jose Abreu as your #23 prospect based on his marvelous numbers as a relief pitcher. How do you account for this?

 

I guess I'm picking on you here, but you've put your opinion out there. I find 12 rankings of Thorpe, all more favorable than yours. Same with Kepler, by the way: all 12 of the other experts rank him several slots more favorably in their rankings than you do. And with Kepler, you dismiss injuries, age, and inexperience as factors and simply cite the numbers. So that's where I get lost. Why just the numbers in Kepler's and Abreu's cases and then a blatant discounting of the numbers when it comes to Thorpe?

[Oxtung]

I agree with Thrylos for the most part. I don't see his Aussie league numbers as being particularly dominant. He pitched well. That means more than if Hendriks posted the same numbers but the definition of dominant doesn't change based on some bodies age.

 

IMO his numbers mean little when evaluating his future potential at this point. There many guys that post great numbers in the GCL but turn out to be nothing. For me he wouldn't be a top 10 prospect because he is so far away still. Lets talk 2 years from now when he has played at Cedar Rapids.

[Kwak]

I agree with Thrylos for the most part. I don't see his Aussie league numbers as being particularly dominant. He pitched well. That means more than if Hendriks posted the same numbers but the definition of dominant doesn't change based on some bodies age.

 

IMO his numbers mean little when evaluating his future potential at this point. There many guys that post great numbers in the GCL but turn out to be nothing. For me he wouldn't be a top ten prospect because he is so far away still. Lets talk 2 years from now when he has played at Cedar Rapids.

 

Here here! There is a difference between steak and sizzle. We need to temper enthusiasm until a player has progressed to a meaningful level. We can all be hopeful for somebody but when we can't even agree on the definition of "dominant" a step-back is in order.

[righty8383]

 

IMO his numbers mean little when evaluating his future potential at this point. There many guys that post great numbers in the GCL but turn out to be nothing. For me he wouldn't be a top 10 prospect because he is so far away still. Lets talk 2 years from now when he has played at Cedar Rapids.

I definitely agree. But its not the GCL numbers or the Aussie numbers that have raised my interest, recent scouting reports have shown increased velocity since he signed and his overall stuff sounds pretty good. I agree with the notion that we should temper our expectations for the kid, but I'm definitely intrigued.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I definitely agree. But its not the GCL numbers or the Aussie numbers that have raised my interest, recent scouting reports have shown increased velocity since he signed and his overall stuff sounds pretty good. I agree with the notion that we should temper our expectations for the kid, but I'm definitely intrigued.

 

This is the key. If he was American, he would have spent 2013 playing on a high school team somewhere.

 

People are underrating just how young Thorpe is and how being "very good" or "dominant" in any professional league is an accomplishment at age 17.

 

Again, he is 13 months younger than Kohl Stewart, yet nobody has any issue with Stewart being a top ten prospect.

 

And if you look at their meager professional numbers, Thorpe outperformed Stewart in pretty much every way.

 

And, again, 13 months younger.

 

(don't take this as any kind of prediction that Thorpe will be better than Stewart, I'm just pointing out that arguments to keep Thorpe out of the top ten don't hold a lot of water when looked at objectively)

[Willihammer]

If Thorpe were American, finishing his final year of high school and entering the draft this year, where would he go?

[ashbury]

Panama City, for Spring Break?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Left handed, touches 95mph as a 17 year old, still gets to play half a season before the draft...

 

Sounds a lot like a first round pick to me. The only thing going against the kid is that he's only 6'1".

[shs_59]

THorpe at 17 , is probably not going to end up being 6'1" ..... Don't you think closer to 6'3" ? I do. Even if he is 6'1 or 6'2 ...thats juuust enough.

 

Thorpe would probably be a late 1st round pick or 2nd/3rd round pick this upcoming draft.

 

THorpe is really exciting , I currently have him at about #9 in our system behind Berrios and Pinto guys like that..

 

I think Thorpe could rise like Tyler Robertson did a few years ago, only assuming he keeps his weight down and stays healthy, obviously should turn out at least a bit better. Not Clayton Kershaw but maybe Travis Wood or Tommy Glavine lite. Exciting stuff.

[Oxtung]

Thorpe might have ended up as a 1st round pick, but that is anything from a guarantee. Being left handed and touching 95mph is a big advantage but in and of itself doesn't guarantee 1st round status.

 

According to MLB.com's early 2014 draft list Justus Scheffield is a 6'1" lefty who touches 94 but they only rank him 39th. Alex Verdugo same stats, 37th. Mac Marshall they peg at 34.

 

In the 2013 draft Stephen Tarpley was a 6'2" lefty that touched 94mph and ended up going in the 3rd round. The Twins own Gonsalves didn't go until the 4th round.

 

The reason I'm more willing to believe in Stewart right now is simple. He was scouted extremely well by anybody and everybody. The scouts love his mix, velocity and athleticism. It seems that he has the potential to be a frontline starter.

 

On the other hand Thorpe was comparatively unknown out of Australia. He had no where near the number of people watching him play and critiquing him and even less since he added the velocity. From what I've seen scouts think his upside at this point is mid-rotation starter.

 

Right or wrong Thorpe has more hurdles to jump through because he is an international signee. IMO he either needs to be getting unbelievable reports from the scouts or he needs to show me that he is still dominant when he reaches full season ball. Perhaps he'll get to the Twins and be Johan part duex. Perhaps not. At this point it is way too early to tell, which has been my only point all along.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Thorpe might have ended up as a 1st round pick, but that is anything from a guarantee. Being left handed and touching 95mph is a big advantage but in and of itself doesn't guarantee 1st round status.

 

No, it's not guaranteed at all but Thorpe wouldn't be eligible for the draft until 2014 if he was an American citizen. If he comes out in 2014 doing what he did in 2013, he's first round material.

 

Of course, still plenty of time until June for things to go right or wrong.