Article: The Case for Stephen Drew

[Reider]

Given the Twins current roster, what other position can you find a better bang for buck than shortstop?

 

C - Pinto - sink or swim, not going to add value here

1B - Mauer

2B - Dozier, backed up by Rosario in 2015

SS - Florimon

3B - Plouffe, backed up by Sano

LF - Willingham

CF - Scrub Player X, backed up by Hicks and later, Buxton

RF - Arcia

DH - Parmelee/Arcia/Willingham/Plouffe

 

Looking at that lineup, there isn't much room for improvement that doesn't involve either trading a player to make room or blocking a young player coming through the system.

Center field is wide open, so that would be a good place to start. What about 3rd base, when's the last time we had a bona fide 3rd baseman? Plouffe is not even close to as good of a defender as Florimon. Plouffe hits home runs, but if he's not hitting home runs, he can go. We don't have a DH, unless you do DH by committee. Parmelee, like Plouffe, is at the end of his rope. We don't have a good Catcher anymore. Suzuki doesn't bring much to the table offensively, yet there isn't a peep being said about him.

 

The Twins could also sign one more starting pitcher considering Deduno might not be as healthy as we want him in 2014.. What about Garza?

 

Florimon is the only positional player on the team who is within striking distance at being #2 in the MLB defensively at his position and he just came off his first full season in the MLB. Considering his price tag and the fact that the Twins aren't going anywhere next year, I think he's earned at least one more season to show some sort of improvement.

 

I'd rather the Twins upgrade Center Field (empty), 3rd base (Plouffe is at the end of his rope), DH (empty), Catcher (Suzuki?), 1 more starting pitcher (Deduno's health is a ?) before SS. I think when you have a guy who has the tools to potentially be the #2 SS next year @ $500,000, you give him an opportunity to improve both this defense and his hitting.

 

I was just fine with JJ Hardy as our SS. It's unfortunate that the FO didn't see him as a long term solution. The Twins are going through a transition so there are going to be some tough decisions. Do you sign someone or do you give X player a chance. Do you sign someone or do you put filler out there until x prospect is ready? There are a lot of tough decisions and I would prefer if the Twins didn't make too many knee jerk reactions. So far, I think they are doing a pretty good job this off season.

[jokin]

My point clearly went over yours and Mikes' heads. It's not about saving money or keeping the payroll as low as possible. It's about value, opportunity cost, and getting the most improvement for your dollar. For instance, at the start of the season, everyone was in agreement that the easiest way to improve the team was to sign FA SP's. That made complete sense, when doing a cost-benefit analysis. I placed signing starting pitchers at the top and signing Stephen Drew at (or near) the bottom of the priority list based on how much improvement the team will have compared with how much $ is spent. And based on how the Twins have been spending this off season, they are in complete agreement with my cost-benefit analysis and not yours.

 

Florimon is the only positional player on the team who is within striking distance at being #2 in the MLB defensively at his position and he just came off his first full season in the MLB. Considering his price tag and the fact that the Twins aren't going anywhere next year, I think he's earned at least one more season to show some sort of improvement.

 

How is it a "fact" that the Twins aren't going anywhere next year? More significant improvements are still doable and you might get your prime prospects producing by June 1.

 

 

I think everyone was in complete agreement that the SP issue needed to be dealt with. Most fans have been calling for what TR finally did this offseason since he came out of retirement, and before then.

 

The problem with you being right in line with Twins management is that they've been so wrong before in overestimating what their existing talent can actually deliver. At this point, the offense for 2014 looks to be even more anemic than 2013. The cost-benefit analysis in my book is dropping the team ERA for lets say, $40M/yr with the addition of Garza and subtraction of Correia, by, let's say one run/gm. means nothing but a shot at .500 if the GM stands pat with the bats and the offensive RPG drops by 0.5/gm. The money is most certainly available, the player is available (Drew or Hardy). Now throw in the what-if..... Sano and Meyer join the team by May-June and put up ROY-level numbers, you now have a fighting chance to get towards being a wild-card contender.

[Physics Guy]

Swisher was actually above average for a first baseman offensively. He was also worth 3.8 WAR.

 

Those stats are about what his career averages are. You are paying for defense and speed with Bourn. He was still worth 2.4 WAR.

 

I know this is off topic a bit, but indulge me. I don't get it. fWar for Swisher and Bourn were 2.4 and 2.0 respectively. I saw the number for Swisher and was really doubtful he could be so high. bWar and fWar can have significant differences.

 

Look at this comp:

Swisher 634 PA (mostly at 1B), .246/.341/.423 3.8 bWar

Morneau 635 PA, .259/.323/.426 2.0 bWar

It even looks as though Morneau get penalized more for defense than Swisher although his stats are better at 1B and Swisher was below average in the OF.

[Reider]

At this point, the offense for 2014 looks to be even more anemic than 2013.

I agree with you wholeheartedly. I'm happy the Twins signed starting pitchers, but I'm concerned about the offense just as much as everybody else. I don't know what the solution is because it seems like we are waiting on a bunch of the young guys to come up and take over. That would explain why nobody expects the Twins to go anywhere for at least a year or two.

[jokin]

I agree with you wholeheartedly. I'm happy the Twins signed starting pitchers, but I'm concerned about the offense just as much as everybody else. I don't know what the solution is because it seems like we are waiting on a bunch of the young guys to come up and take over.

 

Drew or Hardy @ SS...Sign Michael Young (for cheap) or Morales to DH, Trade for Jason Castro to C. You instantly improve your positional OPS numbers at each position to the upper third in the league or better.

[Physics Guy]

How many people here actually thought after last year's offseason the Twins might be considering such things as signing Drew and Garza after already signing Nolasco, Hughes and Pelfrey? It's nice to be discussing this with a hint that the Twins might even be considering it. I realize that a great deal of it has to do with salary that was cleared from last year and the extra $25M from MLB, but it's nice to at least have more hope going in to the upcoming season.

[Physics Guy]

Now we need our first wave of young guys to step up and improve!

[jokin]

It makes me happy that I'm not the only who who keeps mistakenly thinking/saying/typing J.D. Drew instead of Stephen Drew.

 

I wont be surprised if the Twins pass on Drew, but I sure would be tickled pink if they could ink him to a deal.

 

I mentioned it in passing and as a throwaway in a different thread, but would the Drew family be enticed to sign here in a Drew reunion scenario in Minnesota, with JD coming out of retirement and assuming the Jim Thome role?

[Reider]

Drew or Hardy @ SS...Sign Michael Young (for cheap) or Morales to DH, Trade for Jason Castro to C. You instantly improve your positional OPS numbers at each position to the upper third in the league or better.

I don't disagree with you about those guys improving the offense at all. And I would be quite pleased if signing those guys (in addition to the SP's the Twins already signed) resulted in a +.500 record and / or a chance at the playoffs.

 

As much as I like Florimon, I would be fine if the Twins took an "all in" approach and replaced him as I am sick and tired of watching the Twins fight for last, just like every other fan. However, if the Twins don't take the all-in approach offensively, i'd rather Florimon be given a chance to improve his numbers from last season.

 

As a side note, Plouffe and Parmelee have had plenty of opportunities already and they are still around. Replace those guys and then we'll talk about replacing Florimon.

[jokin]

How many people here actually thought after last year's offseason the Twins might be considering such things as signing Drew and Garza after already signing Nolasco, Hughes and Pelfrey? It's nice to be discussing this with a hint that the Twins might even be considering it. I realize that a great deal of it has to do with salary that was cleared from last year and the extra $25M from MLB, but it's nice to at least have more hope going in to the upcoming season.

 

Now we need our first wave of young guys to step up and improve!

 

I'm pumped for both sets of possibilities that you pose and want for the Twins to feel the fan pressure to avoid taking Half Measures when the time appears to be right to take Full Measures. I think the Twins have become fully acceptant that significant measures must be taken to wash away the bad taste of the last 3 years- and try to capitalize on trying to return to relevancy while their future HOFer can still produce (I learned that important "measures" principle from watching Mike Ehrmantraut:o):fenforcer:

[Brock Beauchamp]

Center field is wide open, so that would be a good place to start. What about 3rd base, when's the last time we had a bona fide 3rd baseman? Plouffe is not even close to as good of a defender as Florimon. Plouffe hits home runs, but if he's not hitting home runs, he can go. We don't have a DH, unless you do DH by committee. Parmelee, like Plouffe, is at the end of his rope. We don't have a good Catcher anymore. Suzuki doesn't bring much to the table offensively, yet there isn't a peep being said about him.

 

No third baseman is going to sign with the Twins in 2014. Not with a certain manchild named Sano in the minors.

 

The catcher and centerfield ships have sailed. The only reasonable catcher on the market was Salty and he took a hometown discount in Miami.

 

The only centerfielder that would sign with the Twins would be on a one year deal, which means that you're not getting a terribly good player. Free agents aren't stupid. They're not going to sign a 3 year deal with a team at a position where the team has a top five prospect.

 

I'd rather the Twins upgrade Center Field (empty), 3rd base (Plouffe is at the end of his rope), DH (empty), Catcher (Suzuki?), 1 more starting pitcher (Deduno's health is a ?) before SS. I think when you have a guy who has the tools to potentially be the #2 SS next year @ $500,000, you give him an opportunity to improve both this defense and his hitting.

 

I was just fine with JJ Hardy as our SS. It's unfortunate that the FO didn't see him as a long term solution. The Twins are going through a transition so there are going to be some tough decisions. Do you sign someone or do you give X player a chance. Do you sign someone or do you put filler out there until x prospect is ready? There are a lot of tough decisions and I would prefer if the Twins didn't make too many knee jerk reactions. So far, I think they are doing a pretty good job this off season.

 

I don't see how replacing Florimon, a 27 year old who hasn't hit anywhere in almost a decade, with a proven MLB player is a "knee jerk reaction" but advocating a replacement in CF, a position where the Twins have both Hicks and Buxton, isn't. I'd argue the inverse. As Hicks matures, he will turn into a valuable defensive asset at an up-the-middle position and he has a career MiLB OPS of nearly .800. He's 24 years old. Then there's Buxton, who is just about as sure a thing as there is in the minor leagues.

[JP3700]

I know this is off topic a bit, but indulge me. I don't get it. fWar for Swisher and Bourn were 2.4 and 2.0 respectively. I saw the number for Swisher and was really doubtful he could be so high. bWar and fWar can have significant differences.

 

 

Unfortunately it would take too long to break down exactly how each site determines WAR. If you are interested and have the time, they each do a full breakdown on their sites on how they determine WAR.

 

The differences are in the metrics they use. For example, Fangraphs uses UZR as their defensive metric when measuring WAR while BR uses both DRS and TZ(Total Zone).

 

I generally use both sites for various things, but BR is my preferred site for WAR. It's much more extensive, especially since it's been updated. There are metrics that I prefer on Fangraphs though. For example, I prefer wRC+ a lot, lot, lot more than OPS+ and also UZR over TZ as an individual defensive metric.

 

Look at this comp:

Swisher 634 PA (mostly at 1B), .246/.341/.423 3.8 bWar

Morneau 635 PA, .259/.323/.426 2.0 bWar

It even looks as though Morneau get penalized more for defense than Swisher although his stats are better at 1B and Swisher was below average in the OF.

 

Morneau only slugged .411 and although OPS is an easy stat to look at, it is a very flawed metric when truly measuring a player's offensive value. OBP% assumes all hits and walks are equal. SLG% doesn't weigh hits properly (e.g., a double is not worth twice as much as a single). Then OPS combines the two into one metric, assuming both are equal. When in reality 1 OBP% is worth close to double 1 SLG%.

 

That's why it's better to look at wOBA(weighted On Base Average). wOBA takes each offensive outcome and weighs them in proportion to their actual run value. The weights change year to year as well, adjusting to the run scoring environment. So unlike OPS, wOBA properly values the player for that individual year. Unfortunately, like OPS, wOBA is not park adjusted.

 

Fangraphs and BR both use wOBA as their offensive metric for measuring WAR, but they convert it to wRAA (weighted Runs Above Average). wRAA takes wOBA and gives it a plus/minus run value to better quantify how good a player is/was compared to league average. After being park and league adjusted BR has Swisher at (+15) and Morneau at (+2). Add on the fact that Swisher is a better baserunner and better defensively and you get the difference in WAR.

 

Hope all this helps

[oldguy10]

All these fancy advanced stats give me a headache. Just tell me two things - can the get a hit when you really need it and can he pick it also when that is needed? Pretty basic, isn't it?

[Brock Beauchamp]

All these fancy advanced stats give me a headache. Just tell me two things - can the get a hit when you really need it and can he pick it also when that is needed? Pretty basic, isn't it?

 

Neither is a trait that any player is capable of doing on a regular basis.

[Brock Beauchamp]

As a side note, Plouffe and Parmelee have had plenty of opportunities already and they are still around. Replace those guys and then we'll talk about replacing Florimon.

 

Both of those guys have one foot out the door. They haven't been replaced because their MiLB replacements aren't ready yet. That's hardly a reason to stop improving everywhere else.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Definitely wouldn't trade Hardy for a high prospect. But i would like to see them make a legitimate playoff run, should they crap out, they always would have the chance to recoup the prospect in a deadline trade or make a QO at season's end. The Orioles are looking for SP depth (a #4-5 and a #2 type), a LF, a DH and a closer. The Twins potentially line up here for a trade of major leaguers (Plouffe plus somebody below their 5 best pitching prospects...or Correia + lower prospect?)

 

If you can get Hardy for... Let's say Kevin Correia and Josh Willingham, that will absolutely improve the SS position.

 

But has the team actually improved at that point? Questionable, at best. Hardy is a better player than either but the loss of both probably offsets any gain from JJ.

[Guest USAFChief]

If you can get Hardy for... Let's say Kevin Correia and Josh Willingham, that will absolutely improve the SS position.

 

But has the team actually improved at that point? Questionable, at best. Hardy is a better player than either but the loss of both probably offsets any gain from JJ.

Dealing for Hardy also all but guarantees SS is an issue again going into 2015.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Dealing for Hardy also all but guarantees SS is an issue again going into 2015.

 

Yep. If he has a good season, you're looking at a Stephen Drew 3+ year contract to keep him. If he has a bad/mediocre season, you've missed the playoffs again and it doesn't really matter and you have to do it all over again.

 

I just don't see the point, really.

[JP3700]

In regards to a possible J.J. Hardy trade. To give everyone an idea on what it would take, the Orioles asked for Shelby Miller in trade talks with the Cardinals. So the conversation probably starts with Meyer.

[Major League Ready]

Swisher was actually above average for a first baseman offensively. He was also worth 3.8 WAR.

 

 

 

Those stats are about what his career averages are. You are paying for defense and speed with Bourn. He was still worth 2.4 WAR.

 

 

 

I believe it was the accumulation of many things that helped their turn around. Pitching was a big part of it, but so were Bourn and Swisher.

 

You also have to consider who do they have to replace that production. They lose 2 more games they are not in the playoffs. They lose 1, they would have played game 163. Pretty sure Swisher and Bourn helped them win at least two more games.

 

 

You make a valid point that without Swisher and Bourne they don't make the playoffs. The point many are missing here is that the Twins are simply not in that position. They are not going to contend with the addition of Drew. Therefore, selling low on Florimon and giving up a draft pick is a questionable. I am not saying we absolutely should not sign drew but we should recognize it is not the best strategy if the goal is to build a contender. We can't talk about all these statistics and then ignore that drew has virtually 0% chance of being part of a contending Twins team. We might get a complete bust with that pick but we could get Taijuan Walker. Berrios and Eades have ceiling of a #3 or according to some even a #2 starter. Six years of control for such a player is a valuable asset to give up when the benefit is winning 81 games in stead on 78 or 79.

 

This is a somewhat similar situation to when KC traded Meyers. Npt specifically, but in concept. Had they made their decision based on longer term criteria, they would have been much better off. They could have kept Meyers and traded Gordon. Gordon is a great player but they could have gotten back a couple of near major league ready parts including a very good young pitcher. They could have then used the money saved from Gordon and Shields to sign Garza and had money left over to cover the raise necessary for Santana.

 

Garza is not quite Shields but they would have had him for 4 years. Meyers will be Gordon's equivalent and they would have whatever they got in the Gordon trade which would have been substantial plus Jake Odorizzi and the other two assets they gave up for Shields. And, they have two top 40 SPs in Zimmer and Ventura close. They are still going to be a contender soon but having Will Meyers, Odorizzi and whatever they got for Gordon for 6 years would have made them a considerably better team for several years.

[Brock Beauchamp]

You make a valid point that without Swisher and Bourne they don't make the playoffs. The point many are missing here is that the Twins are simply not in that position. They are not going to contend with the addition of Drew. Therefore, selling low on Florimon and giving up a draft pick is a questionable. I am not saying we absolutely should not sign drew but we should recognize it is not the best strategy if the goal is to build a contender. We can't talk about all these statistics and then ignore that drew has virtually 0% chance of being part of a contending Twins team. We might get a complete bust with that pick but we could get Taijuan Walker. Berrios and Eades have ceiling of a #3 or according to some even a #2 starter. Six years of control for such a player is a valuable asset to give up when the benefit is winning 81 games in stead on 78 or 79.

 

You simply don't know that. Say the Twins get rebound years from Willingham, Plouffe, and Hughes while Hicks and Sano post solid campaigns. This team goes from also-ran to borderline contender almost immediately.

 

Going into a season, you either punt or give yourself the best opportunity to win that doesn't cripple your long-term plans. Drew doesn't hurt the Twins' longterm plans in a meaningful way. He costs a bit of money and a second round pick. That's hardly a king's ransom.

 

This is a somewhat similar situation to when KC traded Meyers. Npt specifically, but in concept. Had they made their decision based on longer term criteria, they would have been much better off. They could have kept Meyers and traded Gordon. Gordon is a great player but they could have gotten back a couple of near major league ready parts including a very good young pitcher. They could have then used the money saved from Gordon and Shields to sign Garza and had money left over to cover the raise necessary for Santana.

 

The fourth best prospect in baseball (which Myers was at the time) and a guy who is MLB-ready is nothing like a hypothetical second round pick. Nothing at all like it, actually.

 

In the past ten years, here are the Twins' second round picks:

 

Ryan Eades, Mason Melotakis, JT Chargois, Madison Boer, Niko Goodrum, Billy Bullock, Tyler Ladendorf, Danny Rams, Joe Benson, Paul Kelly, Kevin Slowey, Drew Thompson, Anthony Swarzak.

 

Is this what we're really concerned about losing? Combined, those guys have a career WAR of 6.6. You have to go back 11 years to find the last Twins second round pick that really impacted the MLB franchise in Scott Baker.

[Willihammer]

I for one haven't written off 2014 yet. Stuff happens, teams go on runs, players get hurt, other players get hot, rookies from nowhere, lightning in a bottle. That's why you play the games.

 

I'd rather give up the ~45th pick now, and have a better chance to win in 2014, than wait till we're "ready" to compete, and give up the 15th pick.

 

Besides, the Twins have a top 10 pick next year. Automatically they should do better than most teams.

[Major League Ready]

You simply don't know that. Say the Twins get rebound years from Willingham, Plouffe, and Hughes while Hicks and Sano post solid campaigns. This team goes from also-ran to borderline contender almost immediately.

 

 

No, I don't know with CERTAINTY but I can assess the PROBABILITY. Have you looked at Detroit's roster? What kind of odds will Vegas give the Twins of winning the division? Let's say the Tigers are riddled with injuries. They likely don't beat KC or Cleveland. And, if that somehow happened, what kind of Odds would we have against the A's, or Rangers or several other teams for the wildcard.

 

You missed the entire point with the KC scenario which was managing assets beyond a 1 or even two year window.

[Brock Beauchamp]

No, I don't know with CERTAINTY but I can assess the PROBABILITY. Have you looked at Detroit's roster? What kind of odds will Vegas give the Twins of winning the division? Let's say the Tigers are riddled with injuries. They likely don't beat KC or Cleveland. And, if that somehow happened, what kind of Odds would we have against the A's, or Rangers or several other teams for the wildcard.

 

There is a lot of inconsistent rhetoric here. There is page after page of how bad we suck and commentary on the ineptitude of our players. Then, when it suits a given argument we can contend.

 

You missed the entire point with the KC scenario which was managing assets beyond a 1 or even two year window.

 

I didn't miss the point at all. You're comparing giving up a bonafide impact MLB player for two years of another MLB player to giving up a second round pick, which rarely pan out to be impact players. In the past ten years, the Twins' biggest second round success story has been Anthony Swarzak.

 

No one is arguing that the Twins will contend in 2014. We're simply saying that given a couple of breaks, this team could be a fringe contender and that Stephen Drew could help that scenario come to fruition. Besides, it's not as if Stephen Drew goes away after 2014. He could easily help this team return to relevance in 2015 and 2016. He's not an old man and he doesn't hamstring this team's payroll significantly. What you're paying Drew in 2015 is offset by Willingham and Correia leaving after 2014, which still gives the Twins payroll flexibility going into next offseason.

 

What it boils down to is this:

 

1. Pedro Florimon is not a good baseball player. He is at the age where improvement is very unlikely.

 

2. The Twins have no internal prospects on the horizon that will improve the position significantly.

 

3. The Twins need better baseball players. Stephen Drew is a better baseball player than Pedro Florimon.

[Brock Beauchamp]

For comedy's sake, here are the most similar batters to Pedro Florimon through age 26:

 

 

1. Virgil Stallcup (974)
   
2. Benji Gil (972)
   
3. Reid Brignac (964)
   
4. Ken Hamlin (960)
   
5. Jose Valdivielso (959)
   
6. Andre Robertson (953)
   
7. Ron Gardenhire (950)
   
8. Steve Huntz (949)
   
9. Artie Clarke (949)
   
10. Marty Perez (949)
    

[nicksaviking]

The Twins need better baseball players. Stephen Drew is a better baseball player than Pedro Florimon.

 

The arguement could be made that Eduardo Escobar is a better baseball player than Pedro Florimon, but if he was a free agent no one would give him a 3/30 deal simply because he's an upgrade.

 

Drew needs to platoon, he is one of the worst hitters against left handed pitchers in the league and it wasn't a one year anomoly, his splits from 2012 were just as bad: .198/.260/.302. This guy should never play against lefties, no way should a team commit mulitple years to him.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The arguement could be made that Eduardo Escobar is a better baseball player than Pedro Florimon, but if he was a free agent no one would give him a 3/30 deal simply because he's an upgrade.

 

Drew needs to platoon, he is one of the worst hitters against left handed pitchers in the league and it wasn't a one year anomoly, his splits from 2012 were just as bad: .198/.260/.302. This guy should never play against lefties, no way should a team commit mulitple years to him.

 

Again, calling Drew a platoon player is ignoring that he's very strong against RHP. 70% of a typical player's PAs come against RHP. Platoons are not equal. The RHP-masher is far more valuable than the same guy against LHP.

 

And if it's that big of a concern, platoon Escobar and Drew. That way everybody stays fresh and there is no significant defensive drop-off between the two players. It doesn't even force the Twins to carry an additional player. Escobar is probably there anyway.

[Willihammer]

For comedy's sake, here are the most similar batters to Pedro Florimon through age 26:

 

 

1. Virgil Stallcup (974)
   
2. Benji Gil (972)
   
3. Reid Brignac (964)
   
4. Ken Hamlin (960)
   
5. Jose Valdivielso (959)
   
6. Andre Robertson (953)
   
7. Ron Gardenhire (950)
   
8. Steve Huntz (949)
   
9. Artie Clarke (949)
   
10. Marty Perez (949)
    

 

This answers so, so much

[cmathewson]

I didn't miss the point at all. You're comparing giving up a bonafide impact MLB player for two years of another MLB player to giving up a second round pick, which rarely pan out to be impact players. In the past ten years, the Twins' biggest second round success story has been Anthony Swarzak.

 

Kevin Slowey says Hi. I know Scott Baker was 2003, but he was a good second-round pick. Also, since the team has been picking high the last two years, I have high hopes for the guys they selected in those years. And that does make a difference. The 35th pick is a lot better than the 65th pick. Or, in the age of long sandwich rounds, the 120th pick.

[Guest USAFChief]

I hope that if the Twins signed Drew, that he would NOT have "virtually 0 % chance" of being on a contending Twins team.

 

Or is it your belief that we can't hope for a contending team before 2017?