AFL notes

[TheDean]

Yeah--I'm mostly just encouraged to see Meyer doing so well. We had full, impressive minor league seasons from Buxton and Rosario, so I'm not terribly worried about their AFL performances. It'd be nice to see Kepler do something, but as previously pointed out, he'd be expected to be over his head in the AFL.

 

My biggest question I was hoping the AFL could answer is how Meyer is looking, and if he's bouncing back from his shoulder injury. The positive results we're seeing there are far more encouraging to me than the subpar performancese of the hitters are disheartening.

 

This is pretty much exactly how I see it. I'm too new to this all to understand what most organizations use the AFL for, but it seems to provide an opportunity to save some of what could have been a lost year for Meyer. The hitters on the other hand get to see some more advanced approaches from pitchers. Even if they struggle a bit, I feel like it's a low-risk sneak peak at what they might see from pitchers next year.

The sample size is so small that the statistics probably don't mean much. My guess is that it helps with some "intangibles" in terms of pitch recognition. I wonder if those kinds of skills are the type that take some time to present themselves in statistics, whether the results are positive or negative.

[gunnarthor]

This is pretty much exactly how I see it. I'm too new to this all to understand what most organizations use the AFL for, but it seems to provide an opportunity to save some of what could have been a lost year for Meyer. The hitters on the other hand get to see some more advanced approaches from pitchers. Even if they struggle a bit, I feel like it's a low-risk sneak peak at what they might see from pitchers next year.

The sample size is so small that the statistics probably don't mean much. My guess is that it helps with some "intangibles" in terms of pitch recognition. I wonder if those kinds of skills are the type that take some time to present themselves in statistics, whether the results are positive or negative.

 

Yeah, the stats don't mean much but the approach, stuff etc is what the scouts are looking for when facing higher talent than before and playing a longer season. And teams also push players to either highlight for possible trades (I think the Twins could be doing this for both Rosario and Kepler) or to make a decision on rule v protections.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The Rays are also good because they shift and platoon and do other things well. Success is driven by end to end processes working in unison.

 

Sure, they do a lot of little things right that add up to a quality MLB team.

 

But I see people talk about drafting and development... Are the Rays really that good at drafting and developing players? We simply don't know because they hit it big in a couple of drafts and they had the luxury of picking in the top five for almost a decade straight.

 

If, in two years, they're producing loads of good players from the 08 and beyond drafts, then we'll know that their system truly is superior.

[VandyTwinsFan]

Anyone have some stats available for any of the twins representatives? I didn't think they kept track but even some basic stuff such as "2 HR in 30 AB" would be nice.

[Ricola]

Anyone have some stats available for any of the twins representatives? I didn't think they kept track but even some basic stuff such as "2 HR in 30 AB" would be nice.

Stats are kept on the MiLB website

Winter Leagues: Arizona Fall League: Statistics | MLB.com: Events

[Steve Penz]

Brock- nice point on Tampa. That is something to think about.

 

Question for the group- Why is May getting so little playing time? Have I missed something? He has 1 start and has appeared in 3 games for 5 total innings. Jones and Achter have more innings than May. It seems like he should have more time on the mound or why go?

[VandyTwinsFan]

Thanks. I believe I was thinking of the instructional league. I was going to copy the stats to get them in the thread but I got a character limit. Now I feel like a noob and will go find a nice corner to think about what I've done.

[gmarais66]

Brock- nice point on Tampa. That is something to think about.

 

Question for the group- Why is May getting so little playing time? Have I missed something? He has 1 start and has appeared in 3 games for 5 total innings. Jones and Achter have more innings than May. It seems like he should have more time on the mound or why go?

 

May has a sore arm (tendinitis)... He may not pitch the remainder of the AFL...

[Steve Penz]

May has a sore arm (tendinitis)... He may not pitch the remainder of the AFL...

 

Thank you.

[Oldgoat_MN]

...

although they constantly picked in the top 10...

 

Good response to my post, though above I am only highlighting one of your reasonable points.

 

I was thinking about these guys:

Rays pitchers 2000 Draft & later

Pitcher >100 ERA+

James Shields 6 of 7 years

David Price 4 of 5 years

Matt Moore 3 of 3 years

Jeremy Hellickson 2 of 3 years

Alex Cobb 2 of 3 years

 

But it is also true that every MLB team has struck out on their first round draft pick more than once.

[gunnarthor]

Good response to my post, though above I am only highlighting one of your reasonable points.

 

I was thinking about these guys:

Rays pitchers 2000 Draft & later

Pitcher >100 ERA+

James Shields 6 of 7 years

David Price 4 of 5 years

Matt Moore 3 of 3 years

Jeremy Hellickson 2 of 3 years

Alex Cobb 2 of 3 years

 

But it is also true that every MLB team has struck out on their first round draft pick more than once.

 

I have no idea where you were able to find or do that search. How'd you do it?

[MC]

I went to the AFL game on the 15th and it was a treat. Buxton went 2/4, Kepler had a couple of hits and got to see Meyer, May, and Achter pitch... Here was my overall impressions:

 

1) Buxton's got great ++ speed. His first hit was in IF single to the short... in his second at bat, he beat out a double play hit to the third baseman with runners on first and second. Both were sure outs by less gifted ball players. His homer was a no-doubter... We're all going to be very happy to watch this guy play when he makes the show.

2) Meyer made Pro's look silly... He struck out all 3 in the first with Swing and Miss stuff and he induced weak contact to get outs in the next inning. None of the hitters really looked like they had a chance. I know it's SSS but I walked away thinking he's our best starter, right now.

3) May was hit hard, even on his outs.

 

Overall, it was a great experience... there were less than 400 people there... you could sit anywhere and just absorb the game. We sat right next to the on deck circle and just soaked it all in. I can't recommend it enough... although, don't plan to eat there. Due to limited attendance, there was also limited offerings for concessions... Thinking I'll visit my inlaws more often in October going forward. The golf was great too (pre-peak season so not as highly price as it is in Nov-March)!

[cmb0252]

I went to the AFL game on the 15th and it was a treat. Buxton went 2/4, Kepler had a couple of hits and got to see Meyer, May, and Achter pitch... Here was my overall impressions:

 

1) Buxton's got great ++ speed. His first hit was in IF single to the short... in his second at bat, he beat out a double play hit to the third baseman with runners on first and second. Both were sure outs by less gifted ball players. His homer was a no-doubter... We're all going to be very happy to watch this guy play when he makes the show.

2) Meyer made Pro's look silly... He struck out all 3 in the first with Swing and Miss stuff and he induced weak contact to get outs in the next inning. None of the hitters really looked like they had a chance. I know it's SSS but I walked away thinking he's our best starter, right now.

3) May was hit hard, even on his outs.

 

Overall, it was a great experience... there were less than 400 people there... you could sit anywhere and just absorb the game. We sat right next to the on deck circle and just soaked it all in. I can't recommend it enough... although, don't plan to eat there. Due to limited attendance, there was also limited offerings for concessions... Thinking I'll visit my inlaws more often in October going forward. The golf was great too (pre-peak season so not as highly price as it is in Nov-March)!

 

Thanks for first hand account. Always enjoy reading them.

[big dog]

Buxton 1-4 last night w/ an RBI and hit by a pitch. Also had an error. I don't really care how he does (as long as he doesn't get hurt), it won't change my opinion and it's great for him to get the experience.

 

Kepler 1-3 with a double, an RBI and a walk.

 

Meyer started, went 5 innings with 4 runs (3 earned) on 6 hits, 2 walks, 6 strikeouts. 77 pitches in 5 innings.

 

5 batters HBP in the game. Wildness or interesting back story?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Do I recall correctly that the AFL is traditionally known as a hitters' league, with the hitters assigned generally being higher level prospects than the pitchers? If so, then I might have hoped to see the hitters put up a little better numbers. Achter and Meyer, though, are very encouraging.

 

Don't know that I had heard that previously, but it seems to make intuitive sense. By the time pitchers reach AA and striking distance of MLB, innings limits seem to be more attractive than expanded seasons. Seems like only special circumstances (like Meyer's shortened season) would put a quality advanced starting pitching prospect in the AFL.

 

Looking at Wikipedia, only one pitcher has won the AFL MVP award, and only 3 of the 26 players in the AFL "Hall of Fame" are starting pitchers (and none of those 3 pitched in the AFL after 1998).

[Chance]

Buxton hit a homerun today (3) while going 2-5.

 

Rosario added another hit and has posted a .277 average, thus far.

 

Zach Jones continued to struggle. He failed to complete one inning of work. Jones gave up 2 hits, 2 walks and 2 homeruns. He also had one strikeout.

 

AJ Achter pitched another perfect inning with a strikeout. He now has 7 shutout innings in the AFL.

[Oldgoat_MN]

I have no idea where you were able to find or do that search. How'd you do it?

 

It was a bit tedious.

I thought the Rays seemed to have good pitchers so I went through them.

At Baseball-Reference.com I entered 2006 Rays. Picked the ones I remembered did well (Kazmir as a 22 YO, Shields as a 24 YO), counted their ERA+ years >100, then skipped ahead a couple of years.

Also checked to make sure they were actually drafted by the Rays.

 

I may have missed one or two.

Not saying the Rays are the best ever and everyone else sucks. I just believe they have done an excellent job in their pitcher selections.

 

Most teams get lucky once in a while with a late round draft pick. I think they do that more than most others.

[Shane Wahl]

Yeah Jones is imploding in almost every appearance.

[Steve Penz]

Yeah Jones is imploding in almost every appearance.

 

Is this simply case of being over matched due to the AFL being hitter-rich and that he is used to A-ball talent? Dude was dominating in the FSL so one would not think it would be this bad.