Sickels: Top 20 Twins prospects for 2014

[kab21]

Harrison neither stumbled nor excelled this season. It was a nice season and scouts love his swing but questions remain. Looking at John's rankings, there is not anyone below him that I would move up above him.

 

He kind of reminds me of this guy - Matt Davidson - Matt Davidson » Statistics » Batting | FanGraphs Baseball - A HS 3Bman with questionable defense and a good bat that hasn't failed nor dominated yet.

[Mike Sixel]

Thanks for coming by, john. Love your work.

[John Bonnes]

For those wondering about Lewis Thorpe (and I'll admit - this guy totally snuck up on me), check out his Adopt-A-Prospect page here:

 

http://twinsdaily.com/adopt-prospect-2013/6288-lewis-thorpe.html

 

Shout out to 2Twins87 who has done a really nice job on this page, including video from a Melbourne TV station when he signed, updates from his minor league season and even an update from the World Cup tournament in Taiwan. Outstanding stuff.

[mnfanforlife]

monstrous

[diehardtwinsfan]

Thorpe's numbers at GCL for a 17 year old are ridiculous. He it up and I can see why he'd give him a higher ranking. Not solely based on his 44IP, however. 5 mph more on his fastball is very significant and perhaps he'll add even more to it. A lefty with big upside is very valuable. I like the Stewart over Meyer decision. Given a choice between the two, I'd rather have Stewart.

 

I really can't disagree with anything in this, but I think it's about that time where Harrison should slip a little bit until he can prove himself.

 

I really wonder if Thorpe will get to skip Elizabethon altogether and start in CR. With that added velocity, his handedness, and his age, he could be a top 100 prospect next year if he does well in Cedar Rapids. Scary thing is that at that age, he could still add a few ticks.

[diehardtwinsfan]

For those wondering about Lewis Thorpe (and I'll admit - this guy totally snuck up on me), check out his Adopt-A-Prospect page here:

 

http://twinsdaily.com/adopt-prospect-2013/6288-lewis-thorpe.html

 

Shout out to 2Twins87 who has done a really nice job on this page, including video from a Melbourne TV station when he signed, updates from his minor league season and even an update from the World Cup tournament in Taiwan. Outstanding stuff.

 

It's because you don't spend enough time in the minor league forums

[lightfoot789]

Harrison certainly the capacity to develop into a pretty good OBP guy. Walker is lacking there, though the slugging makes up for a lot of that. I still don't really understand why the Twins didn't push Walker to get a month or so at Fort Myers, though. That might have given us a somewhat clearer picture.

 

I agree with the thought that Walker should have been given the chance at Ft. Myer, but I also conclude that despite his low OBP - He was 2nd in the entire league in Runs scored. That just tells me that he is a special player. Most guys who lead the league in Runs scored have great a OBP. He has been one of his leagues best in each of his professional levels in Runs scored. That would mean that he scores more than others on his team (whom have a higher OBP) and he drives in more runs than others on his team (whom have a higher OBP). Which prospect would you want on your team?

[lightfoot789]

1st HRs - LEAGUE LEADER

1st RBIs - LEAGUE LEADER

2nd Runs Scored - 2nd in LEAGUE

10 for 10 in SB's - NOT CAUGHT as a PROFESSIONAL

The above stats are what baseball is all about in my mind.

Damn Sabermetrics - Who is getting it done!!

Oh yeah - The Kernels had the best record in Minor League Baseball too.

[twinsfan34]

As good as Ibarra's 2013 season was, he has done little to distinguish himself the previous years. When you are 24 and starting the season at AA one season isn't enough to get you ranked.

 

That said, I think we all hope that his 2013 season translates to the Twins in 2014, regardless of how he is viewed as a prospect!

 

And he's walking half a batter per inning.

[kab21]

I agree with the thought that Walker should have been given the chance at Ft. Myer, but I also conclude that despite his low OBP - He was 2nd in the entire league in Runs scored. That just tells me that he is a special player. Most guys who lead the league in Runs scored have great a OBP. He has been one of his leagues best in each of his professional levels in Runs scored. That would mean that he scores more than others on his team (whom have a higher OBP) and he drives in more runs than others on his team (whom have a higher OBP). Which prospect would you want on your team?

 

I want the one that projects better at the MLB level. Poor plate discipline has derailed too many prospects that had great MiLB stats.

[Jim Crikket]

Re: Harrison & Walker.

 

First, I really like both guys as players and as people. Both of them worked hard at improving their defense during the 2013 season. I suspect, however, that Harrison was being taught to play 3B as a back up plan in case Sano didn't progress at the position defensively. With Sano apparently passing that test, I'd be pretty surprised if Harrison wasn't back in a corner OF spot in 2014.

 

Harrison and Walker both have very good power potential. I think the theory that Harrison, as a HS draftee, had less experience at long seasons than a college draftee like Walker has a bit of merit.

 

At the same time, Harrison's superior plate awareness came back to bite him in the butt some the final month or two of the season. He got rung up on outside corner (or off-the-outside-corner) strike 3s frustratingly often late in the season. I believe some of his productivity drop is that MWL West Division opponents pounded him outside and he didn't get the pitches to pull that he did the first half of the season. It will be interesting to see whether he figures out a way to hit those pitches enough that he'll start getting some inside pitches again.

 

Walker was far less selective, especially with 2 strikes, so yes his Ks were higher, walks were lower and he also didn't see his hitting stats fall off the way Harrison did because he kept putting the ball in play with about the same consistency he had earlier in the season, too.

 

Regarding the question of whether Walker, et al, were being encouraged to drive runs in rather than focus on OBP, the answer is, "I hope so." Walker took a great deal of pride in his ability to drive in runs. His focus was on contributing to his team winning games, not putting a higher OBP so he'd impress a bunch of people who only have his baseball-reference.com page on which to evaluate him.

 

Similarly, I don't think the Twins really cared whether promoting Walker, or anyone else, would allow "us" to have a clearer picture of where he should rank among the organization's prospects. Between Ft Myers and CR, there were 6 starting OF spots to fill and promoting Walker would have resulted in the Miracle trying to find innings and PAs for 4 guys (Buxton, Williams, Kvasnicka, Walker), while leaving CR even more shorthanded than they were already. And for what? Walker wasn't going to start 2014 at AA anyway.

[lightfoot789]

I want the one that projects better at the MLB level. Poor plate discipline has derailed too many prospects that had great MiLB stats.

Do and would you feel that way if Walker had a better K% than Harrison? Or is it simply OBP? You talked about plate discipline. Not balls in play right?

[lightfoot789]

Re: Harrison & Walker.

 

First, I really like both guys as players and as people. Both of them worked hard at improving their defense during the 2013 season. I suspect, however, that Harrison was being taught to play 3B as a back up plan in case Sano didn't progress at the position defensively. With Sano apparently passing that test, I'd be pretty surprised if Harrison wasn't back in a corner OF spot in 2014.

 

Harrison and Walker both have very good power potential. I think the theory that Harrison, as a HS draftee, had less experience at long seasons than a college draftee like Walker has a bit of merit.

 

At the same time, Harrison's superior plate awareness came back to bite him in the butt some the final month or two of the season. He got rung up on outside corner (or off-the-outside-corner) strike 3s frustratingly often late in the season. I believe some of his productivity drop is that MWL West Division opponents pounded him outside and he didn't get the pitches to pull that he did the first half of the season. It will be interesting to see whether he figures out a way to hit those pitches enough that he'll start getting some inside pitches again.

 

Walker was far less selective, especially with 2 strikes, so yes his Ks were higher, walks were lower and he also didn't see his hitting stats fall off the way Harrison did because he kept putting the ball in play with about the same consistency he had earlier in the season, too.

 

Regarding the question of whether Walker, et al, were being encouraged to drive runs in rather than focus on OBP, the answer is, "I hope so." Walker took a great deal of pride in his ability to drive in runs. His focus was on contributing to his team winning games, not putting a higher OBP so he'd impress a bunch of people who only have his baseball-reference.com page on which to evaluate him.

 

Similarly, I don't think the Twins really cared whether promoting Walker, or anyone else, would allow "us" to have a clearer picture of where he should rank among the organization's prospects. Between Ft Myers and CR, there were 6 starting OF spots to fill and promoting Walker would have resulted in the Miracle trying to find innings and PAs for 4 guys (Buxton, Williams, Kvasnicka, Walker), while leaving CR even more shorthanded than they were already. And for what? Walker wasn't going to start 2014 at AA anyway.

.

 

Well said!

[kab21]

Do and would you feel that way if Walker had a better K% than Harrison? Or is it simply OBP? You talked about plate discipline. Not balls in play right?

 

I'm talking about plate discipline and it's not just K rate. BB rate and K:BB rate are other important Harrison does K a little too much for me to really like him but he walks more than twice as often as Walker. In the majors there are even more plate discipline stats to look at. My favorite stat is swing% on ball out of the strike zone (is he looking for his pitch or helping the pitcher out) but that isn't available in the minors.

[kab21]

Regarding the question of whether Walker, et al, were being encouraged to drive runs in rather than focus on OBP, the answer is, "I hope so." Walker took a great deal of pride in his ability to drive in runs. His focus was on contributing to his team winning games, not putting a higher OBP so he'd impress a bunch of people who only have his baseball-reference.com page on which to evaluate him.

 

This is a nice little shot at the stat geeks. Of course you want somebody up there that wants to drive in the run but Walker has a 4:1 K:BB ratio and that is showing that he is expanding the strike zone quite a bit and not making the pitcher come inside to him. I'm not sure I really want a hitter up there that is swinging at bad pitches or swinging through good pitches to hit. I will take a walk over an out.

 

Like I have said before this kind of plate discipline (4:1 K:BB) does not project well especially for a college player that has played a half+ appy league season and a full low A ball season. The Twins don't need to promote him but as long as he moves slowly he will be discounted on prospect lists (not important to the Twins).

[diehardtwinsfan]

Regarding the question of whether Walker, et al, were being encouraged to drive runs in rather than focus on OBP, the answer is, "I hope so." Walker took a great deal of pride in his ability to drive in runs. His focus was on contributing to his team winning games, not putting a higher OBP so he'd impress a bunch of people who only have his baseball-reference.com page on which to evaluate him.

 

 

This strikes me as a double edge sword. I get your point about winning games and driving in runs, and if the pitcher gives him a hitable pitch, then absolutely swing away. The problem is that his underlying stats say he's swinging away too much and that pitchers (especially ones higher up the chain) are going to take advantage of the fact that he expands the zone and not give him anything worth hitting... What then?

 

I get the ultimate goal is to drive in those runs, but he's not going to be doing nearly as much of that as he could if he doesn't learn to lay off bad pitches. This has nothing to do with inflating OBP and everything to do with him becoming a solid major leaguer.

[nicksaviking]

This strikes me as a double edge sword. I get your point about winning games and driving in runs, and if the pitcher gives him a hitable pitch, then absolutely swing away. The problem is that his underlying stats say he's swinging away too much

 

Especially considering that 20-year-olds in Low A have historically struggled to regularly hit the strike zone. Additionally, the league HR leader generally gets pitched around, you'd think this extra likely after the promotions of Buxton and Hicks.

[nicksaviking]

Do and would you feel that way if Walker had a better K% than Harrison? Or is it simply OBP? You talked about plate discipline. Not balls in play right?

 

Players at all levels are much more likely to succeed with a high strikeout rate than they are with a low OBP.