Joe Ryan

[Cory Engelhardt]

Ok, I’ll add another name to the pile just for conversation‘s sake; Coby Mayo. Baltimore has needed pitching forever and Mayo took a step forward this year. Is he a bat anyone would be interested in?

[Whammy]

9 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I've liked Santucci quite a bit since his days at Duke. I don't think we would need to send Caratini out in this regard either. 

I view including Caratini in this as a positive for the Twins. 
Swapping Catchers give the Twins the slightly better player (IMO) and gives us a guy who is signed through 2028, which feels like it works with the Lackey timeline. 

[Whammy]

10 hours ago, stringer bell said:

I've never been a huge Ryan fan, but he's been a good acquisition for the Twins. I think his struggles and injury in the second half have lowered his trade value. It would seem to be a hard sell to get good value for Ryan this offseason.

That feels like an argument for when a player has multiple years of control left. 

We’re kind of down to three options (trade him in the offseason, trade him at the deadline, and let him walk) and even though I agree with you that his trade value isn’t as high as it may have been before, what we’d get for him now is almost certainly more than what a team would pay for 2 months of Joe Ryan at the trade deadline. 

I’m not antsy to trade Joe Ryan this offseason, but it seems to me like it’s probably a good (and tough) choice. 

I’m also not opposed to keeping him, giving him the QO after 2027 and getting a draft pick, but that assumes that there will be a QO type system in place. And I would want that strategy to be part of a larger plan to not have so many of our SP have their contracts expiring after next season. 

[bean5302]

Coby Mayo just put up a 2.0 fWAR season at age 24 in just under 500PA, and he's not a free agent until 2032, and he's not even arb eligible until 2028. Projecting Mayo, you have to assume anywhere from 10-15 WAR ($80-120MM) with a salary of about $30MM. So he's +50-80MM of trade value. Joe Ryan has 10MM of surplus value.

Pick any organizational 6-8 (who is not near the top 100). That's what Joe Ryan can get.

[Cory Engelhardt]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Coby Mayo just put up a 2.0 fWAR season at age 24 in just under 500PA, and he's not a free agent until 2032, and he's not even arb eligible until 2028. Projecting Mayo, you have to assume anywhere from 10-15 WAR ($80-120MM) with a salary of about $30MM. So he's +50-80MM of trade value. Joe Ryan has 10MM of surplus value.

Pick any organizational 6-8 (who is not near the top 100). That's what Joe Ryan can get.

See now I think you are under rating what starting pitching costs to acquire 

[Whammy]

22 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

See now I think you are under rating what starting pitching costs to acquire 

Counterpoint: Some people are probably over-rating what one year of Joe Ryan is worth and the number of teams that it would really make sense to acquire him

[bean5302]

25 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

See now I think you are under rating what starting pitching costs to acquire 

I don't think so. 

Joe Ryan's market value AAV right now is $22MM according to Spotrac.

I don't believe it's commonly believed the draft pic compensation for qualifying offers is going to continue after this year.

Joe Ryan is going to make $12MM next year.

That's $10MM of surplus value. That's what Joe Ryan is worth. SWR had $16MM of surplus value this past offseason.

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 hour ago, Whammy said:

Counterpoint: Some people are probably over-rating what one year of Joe Ryan is worth and the number of teams that it would really make sense to acquire him

I know he had a bad August into September. He also averaged about 3 war per season for the last 3 years. 

[Whammy]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

I don't think so. 

Joe Ryan's market value AAV right now is $22MM according to Spotrac.

I don't believe it's commonly believed the draft pic compensation for qualifying offers is going to continue after this year.

I bet the process by which teams get compensated for losing players in free agency will likely remain in some form. 

I wouldn't be surprised at all if loss of a draft pick by the signing team goes away though. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

I don't think so. 

Joe Ryan's market value AAV right now is $22MM according to Spotrac.

I don't believe it's commonly believed the draft pic compensation for qualifying offers is going to continue after this year.

Joe Ryan is going to make $12MM next year.

That's $10MM of surplus value. That's what Joe Ryan is worth. SWR had $16MM of surplus value this past offseason.

So Ryan has a mutual option for 13 million next year. They also could decline that and go to arbitration where he would probably make closer to 9.5 million. 

And then, well, I'd argue if the offers aren't there, then they keep him and see if value can be recouped. This whole link/article was just IF they did trade Ryan, how could they do that and help the roster in other ways.

[nicksaviking]

If the Twins truly are going to spend money (either by choice or league mandate) I don't know why you'd trade Ryan, which would then make the rotation worse. I don't want Ober nor Kramer in the rotation. I want Ryan, Lopez, Bradley and someone their equal or better. Then the high upside younger players. Then, if/when Ryan hit's his second half wall, ideally, the team has already built up it's first half win total and they have depth to give Ryan time off or bullpen work.

This team already has more 'prospects' than they can possibly roster. Trade some, don't trade for more. 2027 is the perfect time to for once attempt to field the best team the Twins can field instead of straddling the fence with a bunch of other teams' cast offs. For one, Tom Pohlad is talking a big game so he's going to want known players over unknown. Additionally the Twins broke the seal on Jenkins, Culpepper and Rodriguez. They can and should get the roster spots that the Twins typically give to bottom tier vets they consider 'depth' that they have to end up rostering.

[bean5302]

53 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

So Ryan has a mutual option for 13 million next year. They also could decline that and go to arbitration where he would probably make closer to 9.5 million. 

And then, well, I'd argue if the offers aren't there, then they keep him and see if value can be recouped. This whole link/article was just IF they did trade Ryan, how could they do that and help the roster in other ways.

I think he'd make closer to $18MM based on Skubals decision and the special accomplishment clause. Joe Ryan was an All Star last year. But that's you vs. me vs. anybody else.

There's certainly no reason for Ryan not to push it in arbitration if the Twins decline the $13MM option and that will carry into the next CBA which is likely to be much friendlier to arbitration winners.

[Cory Engelhardt]

34 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I think he'd make closer to $18MM based on Skubals decision and the special accomplishment clause. Joe Ryan was an All Star last year. But that's you vs. me vs. anybody else.

There's certainly no reason for Ryan not to push it in arbitration if the Twins decline the $13MM option and that will carry into the next CBA which is likely to be much friendlier to arbitration winners.

Agreed. If I'm the Twins I just accept the mutual option and then either keep him into the year or see what's out there on the trade market for him.

[Cory Engelhardt]

On 10/5/2026 at 4:39 AM, Whammy said:

What does Michael Busch give us that 2026 Kody Clemens didn't provide?

I'd rather have Luis Torrens from the Mets than Busch from the Cubs.... assuming Jeffers isn't back

Potential to get more slugging similar to what Busch did in 2025. He certainly is better at getting on base than Clemens is. And if Busch can be closer in slugging to his 2025 numbers, then he is certainly an upgrade.

Plus, it's not like Clemens couldn't get starts at 2B a majority of the time too right?

[Mike Sixel]

Ryan and Lewis for LaLane, Harbor and a throw in from the Giants. Move Harbor to first base. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

11 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Ryan and Lewis for LaLane, Harbor and a throw in from the Giants. Move Harbor to first base. 

I REALLY wouldn't take that deal from the Giants. LaLane is fine, but Harbor is markedly worse than Lewis was at AAA. WAY more strikeouts and WAY less power. 

I don't know what to think of Lewis for next year or not. But this deal is one that I just wouldn't do. The twins don't HAVE to trade Ryan for this. IF they do trade Ryan, they'll get actual value back.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I REALLY wouldn't take that deal from the Giants. LaLane is fine, but Harbor is markedly worse than Lewis was at AAA. WAY more strikeouts and WAY less power. 

I don't know what to think of Lewis for next year or not. But this deal is one that I just wouldn't do. The twins don't HAVE to trade Ryan for this. IF they do trade Ryan, they'll get actual value back.

Harbor has how many AAA at bats? 

If people want a pitcher and first baseman, or one, back.... You need to find a good team, that has someone available, that will trade for one year of Ryan, that isn't in the division. That's like seven teams.... Maybe.

[Cory Engelhardt]

42 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Harbor has how many AAA at bats? 

If people want a pitcher and first baseman, or one, back.... You need to find a good team, that has someone available, that will trade for one year of Ryan, that isn't in the division. That's like seven teams.... Maybe.

He has more strikeouts in 59 aaa games than games played. That’s kind of a non starter for me. He is also the 14th ranked prospect in a bad giants system. He is someone who I would probably take for Royce Lewis, but I’m not sure of that. He isn’t the next part for Joe Ryan with Henry Lalane for me. 
I know Ryan was great for 3+ months and really bad for 1+ months, but the twins can and will get more for him if they do trade him. Otherwise they hold onto him 

[Cory Engelhardt]

Ok, I pulled some data on some recent trades of pitchers traded in the offseason and comparing the previous seasons' baseball reference war, fangraphs war, and the respective returns. All of these pitchers had one year team control remaining, and I ONLY counted the previous season's worth of data. To be clear, almost all of these guys had had better seasons than the one prior to being traded, and arguably some I would take Ryan over now even if some had higher WAR numbers (Sean Manaea at the time comes to mind, as I think good Joe Ryan is better than good Sean Manaea was.) But also, here is the data I found;

Pitcher	Year	FWAR	Bref WAR	Return
Corbin Burnes	2024	2.8	3.5	Joey Ortiz (#63 prospect at the time MLB) DL Hall (former 1st round pick and former top 100 pick) and comp round A draft pick
Freddy Peralta	2026	3.6	5.5	Two top 100 prospects in Jett Williams and Brandon Sproat
Dylan Cease	2024	3.6	2.2	4 players, headlined by #85 overall Drew Thorpe, and an immediate arm for the bullpen. The other players were #5 and #7 in the Padres system
Tyler Glasnow	2023	3.2	2.1	Current major leaguers Ryan Pepiot and Johnny Deluca, both had been top 100 guys.
Chris Bassitt	2022	3.3	4	JT Ginn (near top 100, #4 in the Mets system) and Adam Oller
Sean Manaea	2022	3.2	3.3	Euriebel Angeles (#12 prospect in Padres system according to mlb) and current young major leaguer Adrian Martinez
Sonny Gray	2022	2.5	3.1	Top 100 prospect Chase Petty
Pablo Lopez	2023	3	3	Lopez came with two prospects, Jose Salas and Bryan Chourio, for Luis Arraez
Joe Ryan	2026	2.5	2.1

[Mike Sixel]

57 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

He has more strikeouts in 59 aaa games than games played. That’s kind of a non starter for me. He is also the 14th ranked prospect in a bad giants system. He is someone who I would probably take for Royce Lewis, but I’m not sure of that. He isn’t the next part for Joe Ryan with Henry Lalane for me. 
I know Ryan was great for 3+ months and really bad for 1+ months, but the twins can and will get more for him if they do trade him. Otherwise they hold onto him 

It's moot anyway. Tommy boy is not trading Ryan. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

31 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

It's moot anyway. Tommy boy is not trading Ryan. 

You may be right. I just found it interesting that he announced they would trade veteran starting pitching in his postseason presser. Why make that announcement if you are truly only going to deal Dean Kremer?

That told me they are open to trading Ryan. They certainly have listened before.