Making the Playoffs Would Change the Twins’ Offseason

[LastOnePicked]

9 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

They should absolutely be trying to make the postseason at this point, but pretending like they're forcing the postseason possibility by winning a bunch of games is nonsense.

100% agree. Since "going for it" at the trade deadline, they have been borderline embarrassing.

This organization has become incapable of rising to a challenge. They don't do the kinds of things that would make this happen. That's why they're again whithering under a spotlight.

[LastOnePicked]

2 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

so they should invest in this team for 2027, not because they might make the post season in 2026, but because you never know the competitive landscape for 2027 and beyond, and you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take

This 2027 team will need at least two top-tier starters, a closer and a 30+ bomb slugger to even sniff contention, though. The cost of those contracts will be far, far more than the Pohlads will pay.

Anything less leads you right back to .500 baseball. And that's not going to put butts back in seats. And then you've got the same revenue problems all over again.

You miss 100% of the shots you try to take when you can't even see the basket.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

If the Twins had moved Buxton, Lopez, Ryan and Jeffers on top of the bullpen trades, that's what a true rebuild looks like. It's totally a valid strategy to maximize value.

No team had ever traded away 10 major leaguers at the deadline before. It was and still is, historic.

no hyperbole, literal history

trading excess value for future value is a strategy to maximize value. When you don’t have excess value, trading away said value is actively making your team worse.

Cutting off your nose to spite your face is bad business.

[Major League Ready]

6 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Free agency isn’t THE answer, development isn’t THE answer, trades aren’t THE answer. A good team uses all three acquisition tools to assemble a team. The payroll budget needs to be high enough that the GM can use all three tools to be competitive. A mid-range budget (20th to 15th ranked payrolls in baseball were $150m to $175m roughly) gives the gm the free agency tool that can acquire good free agents and trade prospects for veterans already on a contract.

The league quality as a whole is volatile and really hard to predict.

the prediction models nailed the Twins record, but I never saw a preseason prediction with a below .500 team making the post season.

i think the lesson learned from this season is that a scorched earth rebuild is never a good strategy. Sure, we could have learned that from Pittsburgh and Colorado and their decades of futility, but Falvey and The Pohlads did their budget slashing veteran trading do nothing offseason waffling in indecision and lost a golden opportunity to be an actually good team in a season of really bad teams.

so they should invest in this team for 2027, not because they might make the post season in 2026, but because you never know the competitive landscape for 2027 and beyond, and you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take

I disagree.  If you are going to rebuild, tear it down to the studs.  Going half-way like the twins did just promotes perpetual mediocrity.    The strategy to go for it or rebuild both look to concentrate assets in a given period of time.  So, the question is ... would the twins have a better shot at post season success by investing in this Team as they did or building for the future. 

I agree you miss 100% of the time when you don't take a shot.  This includes not taking a shot at amassing assets in a rebuild.  They are going to let Lopez and Jeffers go for nothing.  They might still trade Ryan but they could have had Tolle and Arias.  They would have gotten something like Eyanson or LeGrange for Jeffers having already added Abel and Rojas.  IMO, they would have had a better shot at being good for several years vs being mediocre this year and next.  They were in a position last year to rebuild quickly and contend for several years and they blew it.  Milwaukee and Tampa would have never missed this opportunity. 

Speaking of Milwaukee.  They have 17 players that are going to produce greater than 1.5 WAR.  One somewhat established player (Contreras) was acquired via trade.  The were eight others that were acquired via trade but they were prospects/unproven players.  They don't have any players that were acquired via  free agency that will produce 1.5 WAR..

Tampa has one player (Martinez) that was acquired via free agency.  They have no players that were traded for as established players.  By established I mean ever produced 1.5 WAR or greater in a season.

Now, no doubt, smart free agent signings are advantageous.  At times the Rays have gotten great production for modest investment.  The same for the Brewers.  Their role however is far less essential that developing players acquired through drafting and prospect trades.  The value of Trading for established players is tweaking a roster and filling a hole but it's only valuable if a team like the twins can develop young/inexpensive talent.

[LastOnePicked]

34 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

When you don’t have excess value, trading away said value is actively making your team worse.

This is a head scratcher. The Twins didn't have excess value at DH when they traded Nelson Cruz. They bet on future value. And they won.

Players are drafted on future value. Four tiers of baseball exist to develop future value. If you don't have a roster that can win or ownership that can effectively sign free agents, future value is really your only wise investment.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

3 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

This 2027 team will need at least two top-tier starters, a closer and a 30+ bomb slugger to even sniff contention, though. The cost of those contracts will be far, far more than the Pohlads will pay.

Anything less leads you right back to .500 baseball. And that's not going to put butts back in seats. And then you've got the same revenue problems all over again.

You miss 100% of the shots you try to take when you can't even see the basket.

Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez, Taj Bradley, Kremer and Prelipp are still on the team (as is Ober, but he looks cooked). A good mid-rotation starter would be ideal, but not a necessity.

they can and should extend Ryan

agreed, they need a really good reliver

they need hitting, but they don’t need elite, they need someone better than Brooks Lee to play third.

[TheLeviathan]

3 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

No team had ever traded away 10 major leaguers at the deadline before. It was and still is, historic.

no hyperbole, literal history

trading excess value for future value is a strategy to maximize value. When you don’t have excess value, trading away said value is actively making your team worse.

Cutting off your nose to spite your face is bad business.

In a very narrow, immediate sense...yes.  Maybe, that's not even a given.  In the case of the players listed you are responding to...Jeffers has started 14 out of 20 games we've played since the deadline, Ryan has been basically non-existent, and Buxton has been terrible.  Throw Trevor "I'm hitting like peak Pedro Florimon" Larnach on the pile too.

I could absolutely make the case the team would've been better having dealt all of them.  Plus they would've recovered assets and payroll room to supplement any assets acquired in the deals.  

So I fail to to see how this blanket statement applies the way you seem to be applying it?  What am I missing?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

2 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

This is a head scratcher. The Twins didn't have excess value at DH when they traded Nelson Cruz. They bet on future value. And they won.

Players are drafted on future value. Four tiers of baseball exist to develop future value. If you don't have a roster that can win or ownership that can effectively sign free agents, future value is really your only wise investment.

Before the Trade deadline 2021 Cruz put up 1.9 WAR April to July. After the trade deadline Donaldson put up 1.2 WAR as the DH August to September. Per game they got more production and got a prospect.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

10 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

In a very narrow, immediate sense...yes.  Maybe, that's not even a given.  In the case of the players listed you are responding to...Jeffers has started 14 out of 20 games we've played since the deadline, Ryan has been basically non-existent, and Buxton has been terrible.  Throw Trevor "I'm hitting like peak Pedro Florimon" Larnach on the pile too.

I could absolutely make the case the team would've been better having dealt all of them.  Plus they would've recovered assets and payroll room to supplement any assets acquired in the deals.  

So I fail to to see how this blanket statement applies the way you seem to be applying it?  What am I missing?

2025 deadline was a firesale and scorched earth rebuild, of which last offseason the team did not address until 2026 trade deadline. They did jack last offseason, and if they had actually tried to field a good team, 2026 was non-competitive for half of the AL. If 2026 had been a better team out of the gate, we wouldn’t be looking at a 64 win team. The bullpen is still a bottom 5 pen in the league and there are only 2 players from opening day still in it.

The point for 2027, is make the team better, not worse, because they can compete in the AL again next year just by fielding a mid-range payroll.

 

[TheLeviathan]

1 hour ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

2025 deadline was a firesale and scorched earth rebuild, of which last offseason the team did not address until 2026 trade deadline. They did jack last offseason, and if they had actually tried to field a good team, 2026 was non-competitive for half of the AL. If 2026 had been a better team out of the gate, we wouldn’t be looking at a 64 win team. The bullpen is still a bottom 5 pen in the league and there are only 2 players from opening day still in it.

The point for 2027, is make the team better, not worse, because they can compete in the AL again next year just by fielding a mid-range payroll.

 

I think there are some things I agree with here and one deeply problematic assumption.  I agree - if you wanted to be an actual contender the time to do that was not August 2nd of 2026 or even March of 2026.  It was right from the end of 2025.  But they didn't do that and, for me, chasing something you never even tried to build is silly.

But it is a really unlikely assumption to think the 2027 AL is going to look like this because, statistically, this year is a huge aberration.  I mean, this year isn't anything like last year is it?  I don't think assuming another field this weak is at all a fair take.  

Part of my argument is that you're not good in this crappy AL field.  When regression kicks in....how far are you behind on Opening Day 2027 with all else being the same?  To me, you're already behind where you are right now.  Now you're down Jeffers.  You won't have two months of Larnach being hot.  Who knows what we should count on Buxton for.  Even if some other things go right (Lopez, Keaschall, Jenkins, etc.) you've still got an uphill battle to climb.

One which I personally would've rather had more assets in the tank to help with rather than wasting them on this doomed-from-the-start pipedream.

And again...the re-emphasize....all the folks that the pipedreamers were SO adamant we had to keep have been non-factors, terrible, or part-time players on this supposed contention run of ours.  We passed on peak value for this slog.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

56 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

I think there are some things I agree with here and one deeply problematic assumption.  I agree - if you wanted to be an actual contender the time to do that was not August 2nd of 2026 or even March of 2026.  It was right from the end of 2025.  But they didn't do that and, for me, chasing something you never even tried to build is silly.

But it is a really unlikely assumption to think the 2027 AL is going to look like this because, statistically, this year is a huge aberration.  I mean, this year isn't anything like last year is it?  I don't think assuming another field this weak is at all a fair take.  

Part of my argument is that you're not good in this crappy AL field.  When regression kicks in....how far are you behind on Opening Day 2027 with all else being the same?  To me, you're already behind where you are right now.  Now you're down Jeffers.  You won't have two months of Larnach being hot.  Who knows what we should count on Buxton for.  Even if some other things go right (Lopez, Keaschall, Jenkins, etc.) you've still got an uphill battle to climb.

One which I personally would've rather had more assets in the tank to help with rather than wasting them on this doomed-from-the-start pipedream.

And again...the re-emphasize....all the folks that the pipedreamers were SO adamant we had to keep have been non-factors, terrible, or part-time players on this supposed contention run of ours.  We passed on peak value for this slog.

Fair, I have no idea what 2027 will look like, I didn’t mean to say that 2027 will be the same as 26. agreed, it will likely be more competitive than 2026.
 

7 of the last 10 WS winners won it with a $150m to $175m payroll. Yeah, roster construction matters more than spend, but mid payroll teams are competitive year in and out.

while I’m glad this team added at the 27 deadline, I do very much agree on trading Larnach, this team is loaded with outfielders. It’s the position that they can trade away veterans for prospects and not get worse.

 

[LastOnePicked]

1 hour ago, TheLeviathan said:

all the folks that the pipedreamers were SO adamant we had to keep have been non-factors, terrible, or part-time players on this supposed contention run of ours.  We passed on peak value for this slog.

Sad that so many - including team ownership - just cannot understand this. It's very possible that this '26 team could have traded and promoted wisely - could be without Jeffers, Ryan, Lopez and Buxton - and still be in this same WC hunt. All while watching other high-end prospects work their way into 2027 plans.

But there's no vision here for building a real contender. There's just hope, an overprotectiveness of a mid roster and some vague notions of "winning now" from an owner who admitted that he knew nothing about baseball as recently as eight months ago.

[LastOnePicked]

2 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

The point for 2027, is make the team better, not worse, because they can compete in the AL again next year just by fielding a mid-range payroll.

This I agree with, only because there is no other choice. There's no offseason value in Lopez, Ryan, Ober or Buxton. Jeffers will walk for nothing. There's no one left to trade.

However, there will be a work stoppage next year, even if it just impacts Spring Training. When free agency finally begins, the Twins will be slow on the trigger as they always are, and will be seen as a much less desirable landing place than competitive teams like the White Sox and Guardians. 

[bean5302]

15 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Fair, I have no idea what 2027 will look like, I didn’t mean to say that 2027 will be the same as 26. agreed, it will likely be more competitive than 2026.
 

7 of the last 10 WS winners won it with a $150m to $175m payroll. Yeah, roster construction matters more than spend, but mid payroll teams are competitive year in and out.

while I’m glad this team added at the 27 deadline, I do very much agree on trading Larnach, this team is loaded with outfielders. It’s the position that they can trade away veterans for prospects and not get worse.

 

Teams rebuilt before they went to the World Series. I've done this before. Nobody GAF about deadline trash like middle relievers or relievers on expiring contracts. 

Jhoan Duran and Carlos Correa were the only two assets moved with cachet. That's it. The rest (including middle reliever Louie Varland were meh)

Does the entire rebuild have to happen at the deadline? No. But rebuilds are almost always in the near past for non-elite market payroll teams who make it deep into the playoffs.

Diamondbacks. Rangers. Royals, Blue Jays, Astros, Braves. In the case of the Astros, they literally build the tank/rebuild model starting in 2010. It's worked pretty well for them...