It's Time for the Twins to Turn Kendry Rojas Loose

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, mark allen said:

Andrew Morris wasn't a failed starter at all

 

33 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

...So I guess I'm also asking  who exactly is a "failed starter"?

Perkins was a failed ML starter.  Duran was not. Just as past examples. Morris is not a failed starter, just a good arm the team can utilize in a new role in which he might excel. Might Rojas MAYBE be a NOT "failed starter" who could have a great career as a powerful reliever? 

I just don't believe in "failed starters" always becoming relievers, unless we're also discussing MILB prospects who also become quality relievers.

A failed starter is a pitcher who is either pitching so poorly in the rotation they're hurting their team's chances at winning without expectations there's much untapped growth or a pitcher who has reached the point of call-up and they don't appear likely to be able to provide quality service in the rotation so they're moved to the bullpen.

Morris certainly wasn't doing a lot to make his case as a starter during his time in AAA. His peripherals and expected metrics looked uninspiring while putting up numbers which often looked a lot like Randy Dobnak. Morris pitching out of the pen has allowed his K rate to come up, but once the scouting reports get out on him, I wonder if that will stick.

 

[BaseballBob]

The only thing holding back this kid is a couple of IL stints. He needs several starts without interruption. I want the LH and his electric stuff in the rotation. The walks dont concern me. He needs to pitch! Could be another Liriano.

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

 

A failed starter is a pitcher who is either pitching so poorly in the rotation they're hurting their team's chances at winning without expectations there's much untapped growth or a pitcher who has reached the point of call-up and they don't appear likely to be able to provide quality service in the rotation so they're moved to the bullpen.

Morris certainly wasn't doing a lot to make his case as a starter during his time in AAA. His peripherals and expected metrics looked uninspiring while putting up numbers which often looked a lot like Randy Dobnak. Morris pitching out of the pen has allowed his K rate to come up, but once the scouting reports get out on him, I wonder if that will stick.

 

You remain consistent, having commented in the past that Andrew Morris was not an MLB pitcher and that his stuff wouldn't play; you don't believe in Morris.

Pitching is not easy to predict for anyone. I have been high on Morris for a couple of years. The numbers will tell the story in time. In the period from 2024- now, I have seen Morris pitch many times .... the majority of his appearances. I don't believe I can state an argument for him in an unequivocal fashion but I do believe in him finding success and his emergence at some point (next year?) as a successful starting pitcher would not be a surprise to me.

I wonder how many times others have watched him pitch prior to his recent Twins gig.

Kendry Rojas has to learn some of the same skills as Morris is learning - what does it take to create outs against the best hitters. While I do trust the Twins to make a good decision for him, I also believe he can benefit from pitching in relief this season.

[HrbieFan]

15 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

This is a pretty pragmatic view.  However,  I generally believe SPs should not be converted to RPs until they fail as a SP.  However, I am somewhat on the fence as to let him continue to develop as a SP in AAA or put him in the Twins BP.   My 1st impulse is that developing the consistency he lacks would be best done in AAA.  Then again, I think this is a very nuanced decision, so I don't have a strong opinion.

If you have trouble throwing strikes in St Paul, a promotion to the bigs isn't going to help. 

[JD-TWINS]

The degree of angst over whether Rojas should be a starter or reliever seems way over the top for a 23 year old that’s been in the organization for 11 months. Santana threw out of the PEN at least 2 1/2 years at MLB level as he refined things and got adjusted to MLB life & MLB hitters.

If Rojas throws in relief (I think he should next 3 months) it doesn’t matter to me whether he’s throwing 1 inning or 2 2/3……….he’s pitching for the betterment of the Team’s chances, and Adams & Lawyerson are not. Him displacing a much less talented guy in the PEN is what I’d like to see in the very near term.

If the Team wants him to get a few starts, stretch him out after they punt due to record & allow him 3-4 starts in September. In the meantime use him in shorter stints to keep his innings down & to help get guys out for the TEAM.

[JD-TWINS]

9 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

You remain consistent, having commented in the past that Andrew Morris was not an MLB pitcher and that his stuff wouldn't play; you don't believe in Morris.

Pitching is not easy to predict for anyone. I have been high on Morris for a couple of years. The numbers will tell the story in time. In the period from 2024- now, I have seen Morris pitch many times .... the majority of his appearances. I don't believe I can state an argument for him in an unequivocal fashion but I do believe in him finding success and his emergence at some point (next year?) as a successful starting pitcher would not be a surprise to me.

I wonder how many times others have watched him pitch prior to his recent Twins gig.

Kendry Rojas has to learn some of the same skills as Morris is learning - what does it take to create outs against the best hitters. While I do trust the Twins to make a good decision for him, I also believe he can benefit from pitching in relief this season.

100% agree with last paragraph. Morris - Rojas - etc. need to mature and learn how to get MLB hitters out ……… starting as a reliever makes that development time easier to handle, IMO. Can gain experience and help team while refining skills that will help them going forward in the Rotation or from the PEN.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, HrbieFan said:

If you have trouble throwing strikes in St Paul, a promotion to the bigs isn't going to help. 

He's not having problems throwing strikes. 2.86 BB/9 is fine. 67% strike rate with a 50.1% zone rate in AAA. He's excellent on the strike rate (because of whiffs/fouls on balls) and good enough on the zone rate. 

[bean5302]

39 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

100% agree with last paragraph. Morris - Rojas - etc. need to mature and learn how to get MLB hitters out ……… starting as a reliever makes that development time easier to handle, IMO. Can gain experience and help team while refining skills that will help them going forward in the Rotation or from the PEN.

Starting as a reliever reduces experience by 70% which makes learning that much harder.

Players start as relievers if they cannot be effective starters. MLB is not for learning how to pitch. That's why Rule 5 guys almost never stick. MLB is for guys who've already figured out their stuff, but need to learn what stuff they have works best against big leaguers, and to polish command. More innings, more pitches = more experience. 

[Andy MacPhail]

Maybe long relief (hybrid) isn't as glamourous as being a SP or a high leverage RP, but IMO, it's just as important. Overextending our SPs & burning out our short RPs is a recipe for going 20 some years w/o a play-off win & not going as far as we could have; because our pitching have been shot, come playoffs,

There are many great SPs that started out in the pen. Put Raya in the MLB pen. Let him get a feel of the MLB, strengthen his arm while not overdoing it. IMO, he'll become a very good SP but keep him in the pen as long relief & some spot starts where we need him.

I'm a firm believer in having our young SPs pitch long relief in the MLB & give them as many innings as they can take & not waste their bullets in AAA. This one thing I like the CWS are doing, they are pitching their young SPs in the pen & winning. They are surprising many pundits but not me.

[mark allen]

22 hours ago, bean5302 said:

 

A failed starter is a pitcher who is either pitching so poorly in the rotation they're hurting their team's chances at winning without expectations there's much untapped growth or a pitcher who has reached the point of call-up and they don't appear likely to be able to provide quality service in the rotation so they're moved to the bullpen.

Morris certainly wasn't doing a lot to make his case as a starter during his time in AAA. His peripherals and expected metrics looked uninspiring while putting up numbers which often looked a lot like Randy Dobnak. Morris pitching out of the pen has allowed his K rate to come up, but once the scouting reports get out on him, I wonder if that will stick.

 

a 1.23 ERA in 2026 for st paul do you even watch baseball.

[bean5302]

12 hours ago, mark allen said:

a 1.23 ERA in 2026 for st paul do you even watch baseball.

I do, which is how I also know 7.1 innings doesn't mean anything.

[nicksaviking]

On 7/3/2026 at 3:52 PM, bean5302 said:

#1 - 5.0 WAR
#2 - 4.0 WAR
#3 - 3.0 WAR
#4 - 2.0 WAR
#5 - 1.5 WAR

Elite RP - 1.75 WAR
Great RP - 1.25 WAR

 

While I’d guess the WAR averages here are largely wrong for the relievers and #3-5 starters, I don’t think this is at all reflective of true value.

Duran, Jax and Varland all returned a better haul than Bailey Ober would have ever brought back. High leverage relievers are more valuable than #4-5 starters despite throwing fewer total innings. Often more valuable than #3 starters.

That said, Rojas is one of the few I like to possibly be a #1-2 starter.

Also, I’m glad this article points out that multi inning relievers are at the absolute bottom of the totem pole. Your most electric failed starters should be pushed to the high leverage situations. Your inning-eating, just-get-me-to-tomorrow pitchers should be the waiver wire fodder you don’t mind casting off in a month. 

[bean5302]

28 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

While I’d guess the WAR averages here are largely wrong for the relievers and #3-5 starters, I don’t think this is at all reflective of true value.

Duran, Jax and Varland all returned a better haul than Bailey Ober would have ever brought back. High leverage relievers are more valuable than #4-5 starters despite throwing fewer total innings. Often more valuable than #3 starters.

That said, Rojas is one of the few I like to possibly be a #1-2 starter.

Also, I’m glad this article points out that multi inning relievers are at the absolute bottom of the totem pole. Your most electric failed starters should be pushed to the high leverage situations. Your inning-eating, just-get-me-to-tomorrow pitchers should be the waiver wire fodder you don’t mind casting off in a month. 

It all depends on what you think a #3 or #4 or #5 starter actually is. If you think a #5 starter is a Chris Paddack who isn't worth a roster spot, but keeps getting trotted out to the mound by an incompetent front office trying to wipe the egg off their face, then you're right. I'm talking about guys you actually want on the mound, not guys you play because you have to.

For relievers from 2023-2025 who pitched 140+ innings (98 total relievers), adjusted for 60 innings
1 averaged 1.9 fWAR or higher
3 averaged 1.7 fWAR or higher
7 averaged 1.5 fWAR or higher
17 averaged 1.2 fWAR or higher
28 averaged 1.0 fWAR or higher

BaseballTradeValues has gotten pretty good with ballparking trade value.

(Expected WAR) * $8.0MM - (Expected SalaryMM) = Surplus Value

There's a little wiggle room on the 8.00 factor, but the end result doesn't vary a lot since relievers don't generate a lot of WAR.

[nicksaviking]

On 7/5/2026 at 10:00 AM, bean5302 said:

It all depends on what you think a #3 or #4 or #5 starter actually is. If you think a #5 starter is a Chris Paddack who isn't worth a roster spot, but keeps getting trotted out to the mound by an incompetent front office trying to wipe the egg off their face, then you're right. I'm talking about guys you actually want on the mound, not guys you play because you have to.

For relievers from 2023-2025 who pitched 140+ innings (98 total relievers), adjusted for 60 innings
1 averaged 1.9 fWAR or higher
3 averaged 1.7 fWAR or higher
7 averaged 1.5 fWAR or higher
17 averaged 1.2 fWAR or higher
28 averaged 1.0 fWAR or higher

BaseballTradeValues has gotten pretty good with ballparking trade value.

(Expected WAR) * $8.0MM - (Expected SalaryMM) = Surplus Value

There's a little wiggle room on the 8.00 factor, but the end result doesn't vary a lot since relievers don't generate a lot of WAR.

Duran had a 3.1 WAR last year and a 2.1 so far this year.

And so what? WAR isn’t a helpful stat, particularly in this case since it’s cumulative and relievers are almost entirely valued based on if, when and how they pitch in the team’s highest leverage situations of the season.

Teams aren’t, or at least shouldn’t be using WAR to compare positional value. You don’t seriously think peak Bailey Ober brings back Abel and Tait?