Grading Terry Ryan

[Willihammer]

I also notice... Not much talk about Edwin Jackson or Dan Haren right now. Deduno is matching Greinke right now... We seem to be focusing on the one guy who is working out.

 

I think we're focusing on the one guy who made the most sense. But, if you want to bet on Deduno and the hodgepodge of talents that Jr is likely to field over the next 6 years outproducing Greinke or Jackson or even Haren, I will take that bet in a heartbeat.

[Riverbrian]

I think we're focusing on the one guy who made the most sense. But, if you want to bet on Deduno and the hodgepodge of talents that Jr is likely to field over the next 6 years outproducing Greinke or Jackson or even Haren, I will take that bet in a heartbeat.

 

Can I take Deduno... without the hodgepodge of talents?

[drjim]

Thanks for the Marcum mention, both he and Jackson have to a large extent, been victims of circumstances. According to Fangraphs, Marcum has already represented $6.3M worth of value, far outstripping his contract, while Jackson still has a good chance in coming close to matching his contract value.

 

I would personally take those results as a symbol of a flaw in the methodology of Fangraphs valuation.

[jokin]

I would personally take those results as a symbol of a flaw in the methodology of Fangraphs valuation.

 

Please consult each pitchers' underlying statistics before you make such a blanket statement.

[ThePuck]

I would personally take those results as a symbol of a flaw in the methodology of Fangraphs valuation.

 

Please explain why the value Fangraphs assigns is flawed. If you're gonna say it is, then we should know why.

 

Edited by me

[Brock Beauchamp]

Marcum hasn't been nearly as bad as the initial glance at his stats suggest. I still believe that he was worth the relatively small risk required to sign him.

[ThePuck]

The Dollar Value Of A Win | FanGraphs Baseball

 

good reading

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think the argument has much more to do with whether or not signing a player LIKE Sanchez would have been a smart move or not. He just happens to be the example.

 

Of course they'd choose a player "LIKE Sanchez"... he's succeeding. This argument would never be framed in terms of a player like Edwin Jackson or Dan Haren. It never has, nor will it ever be. It's all a hindsight guess. Me personally, I had hoped for one of two big moves... trading Slama for Haren so they could offer him arb or signing Jackson... One would have made me look smart (this year at least)... and the other not so much.

 

Truth be told, at this point, I suspect Ryan's choice to avoid the big contract may have been the right thing to do.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

edit: I think Ryan would have traded Santana. His history with Lohse and Milton show that to be the case... But I think he would have demanded pitching in return had he been GM. Also, Ryan deserves a lot of fault for leaving Smith in a really crappy situation with Hunter and Santana. But given Ryan's history, I can't see a situation where he trades Johan and Garza in the same offseason. That was utter madness.

 

Smith did demand pitching in return when he traded Santana... The problem was that he got 3 crappy pitchers, and the irony is that most people were upset that they didn't get some kid named Mike Pelfrey.

 

Truth be told, had Ryan been at the helm, I don't think he would have accepted the deal the Mets gave us. The one thing he has shown is that he does not execute a trade until he gets what he feels is fair value, which means we'd have kept Santana and offered him arb.

[jay]

I think we're focusing on the one guy who made the most sense. But, if you want to bet on Deduno and the hodgepodge of talents that Jr is likely to field over the next 6 years outproducing Greinke or Jackson or even Haren, I will take that bet in a heartbeat.

 

Can I take Deduno... without the hodgepodge of talents?

 

I might have to get in on that bet. I'd assume we get some sort of a significant multiple on the payout to account for the 367 times larger contract that Greinke got? And smaller multiples for Jackson and Haren?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Smith did demand pitching in return when he traded Santana... The problem was that he got 3 crappy pitchers, and the irony is that most people were upset that they didn't get some kid named Mike Pelfrey.

 

Truth be told, had Ryan been at the helm, I don't think he would have accepted the deal the Mets gave us. The one thing he has shown is that he does not execute a trade until he gets what he feels is fair value, which means we'd have kept Santana and offered him arb.

 

There's a good chance that's the way it plays out. If anything, people complain that Ryan is too bullish on his assets... I don't think anyone would have been terribly surprised to see him sit on Santana if he didn't get an offer he liked. After all, people complain that's what he has done with multiple free agents over the past 18 months.

[ThePuck]

Of course they'd choose a player "LIKE Sanchez"... he's succeeding.

 

No, no...only taking into account the kind of pitcher he had been prior to this year, not the kind he has been this year. Just like I don't think we should take into account his injury this year (talk about hindsight) yet that's been used. I'm not taking into account his results so far accept to say he's been worth it so far, but that's beside the point and not really what the debate is about anyway.

[jay]

Here's what I don't get:

a) Most of us claim the "budget" for this year was higher than the current payroll number and Terry Ryan gets blamed for not spending the rest of that "budget" on a free agent.

Most of us also claim that any "budget" not spent this year is forever lost with no rollover effect.

 

If a core portion of TR's job as the General Manager is to field a winning team, why in heavens would he ever not spend every last cent of his budget? The two statements just flat out don't jive.

[ThePuck]

Here's what I don't get:

a) Terry Ryan gets blamed for not spending the rest of his "budget" on a free agent, which most of us claim is/was higher than the current payroll number.

Most of us also claim that any "budget" not spent this year is forever lost with no rollover effect.

 

If a core portion of TR's job as the General Manager is to field a winning team, why in heavens would he ever not spend every last cent of his budget? The two statements just flat out don't jive. We might need to question the things that many of us hold as fact.

 

To respond to your B comment, the Twins have said that they won't take money saved and use it in future years. Payroll is based on projected revenue for that year, period.

 

I don't really understand what you're saying in A.

[launchingthrees]

misread

[drjim]

Here's what I don't get:

a) Terry Ryan gets blamed for not spending the rest of his "budget" on a free agent, which most of us claim is/was higher than the current payroll number.

Most of us also claim that any "budget" not spent this year is forever lost with no rollover effect.

 

If a core portion of TR's job as the General Manager is to field a winning team, why in heavens would he ever not spend every last cent of his budget? The two statements just flat out don't jive. We might need to question the things that many of us hold as fact.

 

Ryan himself has said he has budget space left. It is possible that he is covering for his owner but a more logical explanation is he didn't find any free agent contracts he liked and didn't want to hamper future flexibility with overpays (either real or imagined).

[Kwak]

Here's what I don't get:

a) Terry Ryan gets blamed for not spending the rest of his "budget" on a free agent, which most of us claim is/was higher than the current payroll number.

Most of us also claim that any "budget" not spent this year is forever lost with no rollover effect.

 

If a core portion of TR's job as the General Manager is to field a winning team, why in heavens would he ever not spend every last cent of his budget? The two statements just flat out don't jive. We might need to question the things that many of us hold as fact.

 

GMs are like other business executives--they are paid to do many things. Their compensation is quite incentive-based. Profit to an owner is likely more important than a few more "wins" in a season.

[drjim]

Please explain why the value Fangraphs assigns is flawed. If you're gonna say it is, then we should know why.

 

Edited by me

 

So Marcum is now out for the year. He pitched less than 80 innings and had an era in the mid 5s. I understand that Fangraphs looks at underlying stats but I think there has to be something said for actual basic results of outs and runs. To quantify those results into over $6 mil of value seems a little generous.

 

Underlying stats speak to expected future performance for sure but I would hesitate to use them to quantify value in the present. I know of "random variation" and "luck" and would expect those to even out in time but they cannot tell a great story value in a sample size as small as 80to innings. That is why I question the methodology because it doesn't seem to capture the value of actual basic results.

 

On a side note I am not criticizing Marcum. I wanted the Twins to sign him but it seems they dodged one. For all our weeping and gnashing of teeth it seems the FO might have known what they were doing on this specific transaction.

[jay]

Ryan himself has said he has budget space left. It is possible that he is covering for his owner but a more logical explanation is he didn't find any free agent contracts he liked and didn't want to hamper future flexibility with overpays (either real or imagined).

 

I haven't seen that quote, but I'll take your word. If your theory is true, that may not be reasonable, but at least there's a rationale.

[TheLeviathan]

So we have come to the point with excuses that we are brazenly suggesting that the Twins current payroll is at its ceiling?

 

My god. I have now heard it all. THat is truly looking for excuses.

[launchingthrees]

GMs are like other business executives--they are paid to do many things. Their compensation is quite incentive-based. Profit to an owner is likely more important than a few more "wins" in a season.

 

I can assure you that the owners are not happy with the season despite their profit. The key is winning enough to keep the fans in the dark about how much payroll they are cutting. Fans are pretty upset, not to mention players like Mauer who were given promises that the FO would try to build a winner.

[ThePuck]

I can assure you that the owners are not happy with the season despite their profit. The key is winning enough to keep the fans in the dark about how much payroll they are cutting. Fans are pretty upset, not to mention players like Mauer who were given promises that the FO would try to build a winner.

 

Along with the fans being given promises, especially the season ticket holders, that Ryan would do everything possible to significantly improve the rotation on the big club this year.

 

It's been as bad as last year so far, if not worse when looking at all the stats.

[ThePuck]

So Marcum is now out for the year. He pitched less than 80 innings and had an era in the mid 5s. I understand that Fangraphs looks at underlying stats but I think there has to be something said for actual basic results of outs and runs. To quantify those results into over $6 mil of value seems a little generous.

 

Underlying stats speak to expected future performance for sure but I would hesitate to use them to quantify value in the present. I know of "random variation" and "luck" and would expect those to even out in time but they cannot tell a great story value in a sample size as small as 80to innings. That is why I question the methodology because it doesn't seem to capture the value of actual basic results.

 

On a side note I am not criticizing Marcum. I wanted the Twins to sign him but it seems they dodged one. For all our weeping and gnashing of teeth it seems the FO might have known what they were doing on this specific transaction.

 

Have you read how they come up with the numbers?

[jay]

Fans are pretty upset, not to mention players like Mauer who were given promises that the FO would try to build a winner.

 

The illustrious, phantom FA top starting pitcher would be great, but to suggest they aren't trying to build a winner seems to ignore plenty of positives.

[jay]

GMs are like other business executives--they are paid to do many things. Their compensation is quite incentive-based. Profit to an owner is likely more important than a few more "wins" in a season.

 

This also makes some sense.

 

However, even if there is no rollover in the sense of a direct dollar amount from one year to the next, not squeezing ownership for every last cent would seem to help build trust in TR. You'd hope this would give ownership more willingness to listen to him when he says it's time to 'go for it'. I hope that time comes, and soon. I realize some will view this as trying to defend TR, but it's more about trying to put a rationale understanding on the decision process.

[PseudoSABR]

Marcum shut down for the season, btw.

[Guest USAFChief]

Have you read how they come up with the numbers?

 

Pray tell...how do they determine that 124 innings of 3.7 ERA pitching for the Brewers in 2012 was worth 1.3 WAR, and 78 innings of 5.29 ERA pitching for the Mets in 2013 was worth...wait for it...1.3 WAR?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Pray tell...how do they determine that 124 innings of 3.7 ERA pitching for the Brewers in 2012 was worth 1.3 WAR, and 78 innings of 5.29 ERA pitching for the Mets in 2013 was worth...wait for it...1.3 WAR?

 

Easy. Nobody wants to pitch for the Mets.

[launchingthrees]

Pray tell...how do they determine that 124 innings of 3.7 ERA pitching for the Brewers in 2012 was worth 1.3 WAR, and 78 innings of 5.29 ERA pitching for the Mets in 2013 was worth...wait for it...1.3 WAR?

 

Well for one, they don't use ERA.

[Guest USAFChief]

Well for one, they don't use ERA.

Perhaps they should.