Ryan Jeffers Sought Consistency, and Found it Through Patience—of Two Kinds

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Brad Rempel-Imagn Images

Perhaps more than anyone else in the Twins clubhouse, Ryan Jeffers trusts the process. He came out of the gates this spring with tough numbers, and after one of the bad bumps a catcher inevitably takes left him with a hurting hand in April, even some of the under-the-hood data (bat speed, most notably) pointed in the wrong direction. However, the veteran backstop never faltered. To make any kind of reactionary change would go against everything he set out to do after the disappointing end to the 2024 season.

"This offseason, I came to them with a goal of mine of wanting to be more consistent," Jeffers said Tuesday, inside the home clubhouse at Target Field. "I’ve been kind of riding the roller coaster, the ups and the downs, a little too much. I was one of the best hitters in baseball for a month and a half, two months last year, and then I was really bad for a couple of months. I’m trying to even that out, and we’ve done that."

Consistency—or the lack thereof—has been a frequent topic among Twins fans over the last few years, as the team seems to alternate surging and sputtering. Jeffers is right, of course: he's been just as prone to that as the club who won 12 games in a row last spring and 13 in a row this year, but finished 2024 12-27 to crash out of playoff position.

To fix that problem, on an individual level, Jeffers brought a new approach at the plate in 2025. His swing rate is dramatically down this year, from 48.5% to 39.2%. He came up as a disciplined hitter who rarely chased, but had gotten more willing to expand the zone in pursuit of power over the last two campaigns. This year, that's abruptly changed; he's swinging at fewer than 25% of pitches outside the strike zone. Even within it, he's been radically selective. The resulting 11.3% walk rate is (by far) a career-best, and that's kept him on base even at times when the rest of the lineup was failing to put any pressure on opposing pitchers or defenses. 

For a while, though, exercising that pitch-to-pitch patience also meant maintaining patience of another kind: emotional, big-picture equanimity, amid bad batted-ball luck that deflated his numbers. This is where it helps to be open to newfangled data.

"You can look at the power numbers being down this year, but that can be deceiving in a way—because my expected numbers are much better than what my real numbers are," Jeffers said. "I’ve been getting unlucky. By a lot of the underlying metrics, if not all the underlying metrics, this is my best offensive season. I’m definitely doing something right. It’s hard to not be slugging like I have in the past, but I think there’s no doubt, I think there’s no hiding the fact that I can be a 20-plus homer guy. I don’t think other teams look at me and go, ‘Oh, he’s a slop hitter now.’"

He said all that just before a series against the visiting Cubs in which he went 5-for-10, with a walk, two doubles and a home run. The actual value has shown up now, but Jeffers never doubted that it would.

"I’ve had two or three homers robbed on me this year, and there’s a couple balls that I hit in certain parks that would have been homers in over half the parks," he said. "There’s been a lot of instances where I’ve had more opportunities, but like I said, all of my underlying numbers are the best they’ve ever been—the hard-hit rates, the launch angles, some of the more intricate, run-value type stats, are the best they’ve ever been. So obviously, I’m doing something right. I’m sacrificing a little bit oif slug, but I don’t feel any less dangerous up there."

That's all well and good, but there's also another factor we should discuss: Jeffers is healthy right now. After taking a foul tip off the hand early in the season, he ran much slower bat speeds than are his wont for the first two months of the campaign. Lately, though, he's swinging as fast as ever—and getting to the ball on plane as well as ever, and pulling the ball more than ever.

Ryan Jeffers, Bat-Tracking Data by Month, 2024-25

Season	Month	Bat Speed (MPH)	Swing Tilt (°)	Attack Angle	Attack Direction	Contact Point (in.)
2024	April	73.2	31.0	11.7	-5.1	31.3
2024	May	73.0	31.1	11.4	-6.4	32.4
2024	June	72.5	27.7	7.0	-1.7	28.4
2024	July	72.1	29.1	7.9	-2.5	29.6
2024	August	73.6	29.1	8.7	-4.7	32.1
2024	September	72.9	28.2	8.8	-3.0	29.8
2025	April	71.4	29.8	8.8	0.6	27.5
2025	May	71.7	28.5	8.8	-1.3	27.4
2025	June	72.6	27.8	11.3	-5.7	30.7
2025	July	73.6	27.5	11.3	-8.2	30.7

The lefthand column jumps out, but don't overlook the more subtle changes happening. Jeffers has traded a bit of the tilt in his swing for that extra tick of bat speed, but in his case (particularly while he's making such good swing decisions), it's a sound trade. He made the conscious choice to let the ball travel more, hitting it less out in front (right-most column) early this year, but as he's tapped into more sheer bat speed, he's been able to catch it earlier even while remaining very patient at the plate.

More of Jeffers's swing acceleration is happening early in his swing. That gives him more bat control through the hitting zone; he doesn't have to rush the barrel to reach the ball. As a result, he's not only chasing less and walking more, but making contact on a career-high rate of swings within the zone (86.6%) and striking out at a career-low rate (17.7%). His surface-level numbers still don't look as good as they did in, say, 2023, but Jeffers is right that the underlying ones all say he's the best he's ever been. That he adopted such an altered approach in search of consistency is admirable; that he's found so much consistency is downright amazing. Here's a rolling chart of his expected weighted on-base average over 50-plate appearance samples, throughout his career. He's never been solidly above-average for this long before, without enduring a slump from which he had to recover. He's tapped into something hugely valuable.

"I think there’s still, I’m a couple homers away from just climbing those numbers higher and higher, but I feel really good with where I’m at," Jeffers said, the afternoon before he hit one of those homers. Indeed, right now, he's a player who should feel really good. He's discovered an approach that can yield not only consistency, but excellence.

View full article

[h2oface]

Striving for consistent mediocrity or less, and siting expected stats instead of actual results to convince yourself you are successful…… baseball has come soooo far. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

8 minutes ago, h2oface said:

Striving for consistent mediocrity or less, and siting expected stats instead of actual results to convince yourself you are successful…… baseball has come soooo far. 

If you are comparing him to Johnny Bench or Joe Mauer, then yes, he’s mediocre.  However, the stats (even the counting ones) say that he has been an above average hitter for his career and even a shade more this season.  If hitting better were easy, everyone would do it. His process seems to be working for him this year so who am I to argue.  If only it weren’t for those pesky pitchers trying every trick in the book to get batters out.

[Doctor Gast]

Jeffers works very hard on both his bat & glove, IMO, he's one of the better hitting catchers; he has a good feel at the plate.  

 "I was one of the best hitters in baseball for a month and a half, two months last year, and then I was really bad for a couple of months. I’m trying to even that out, and we’ve done that."

What I've observed with Jeffers, is his stamina. IMO, his drop off isn't due to his mechanics but more his stamina. When gets worn down his production falls off starting with his defense. So when he said "we've done that",  we can't find out if that is a fact until the season wears down if he can maintain his stamina.

[h2oface]

On 7/11/2025 at 7:46 AM, Rod Carews Birthday said:

If you are comparing him to Johnny Bench or Joe Mauer, then yes, he’s mediocre.  However, the stats (even the counting ones) say that he has been an above average hitter for his career and even a shade more this season.  If hitting better were easy, everyone would do it. His process seems to be working for him this year so who am I to argue.  If only it weren’t for those pesky pitchers trying every trick in the book to get batters out.

All batters have to hit against the same MLB pitchers, or AAA temporary replacements. Glad you are happy with a little above average (which still fits the criteria of mediocre in my book -perhaps you are using the “for his position” caveat for comfort?) Grading on the curve always makes overall league performance comparisons easier to swallow. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

45 minutes ago, h2oface said:

All batters have to hit against the same MLB pitchers, or AAA temporary replacements. Glad you are happy with a little above average (which still fits the criteria of mediocre in my book -perhaps you are using the “for his position” caveat for comfort?) Grading on the curve always makes overall league performance comparisons easier to swallow. 

That is certainly true, but isn’t really the point.  If you can have a better than average player at every position, you will likely have a very good team.  Production at first base, now that’s a major problem.  Production when Vasquez catches, that’s an even bigger one.  

It would be awesome to have a top five player at catcher, or every spot on the diamond.  However, that’s not really necessary to have a good team.  Having a player or two in the top five is critical to that as well.  For us, that’s Buxton and should be C4 or Lewis, but that’s not happening right now, and is probably one of the main reasons the offense has underachieved this year.