chpettit19’s 2025 Trade Deadline Blueprint:

[chpettit19]

The prices are based on this year, but the strategy behind my moves would be to set the team up for 2026 and 2027. It's a retool, not a rebuild. I don't want to blow it up, but I don't want to just keep running things back with this roster. I'd use the rest of 2025 to gain information on young/inexperienced guys and give them experience. Then use the information gained to make additional offseason moves.

Alcantara trade package would be centered around Emma.

Harry Ford trade would be centered around Larnach and Castro.

Jenkins, Keaschall, Culpepper, Prielipp, Hill, and Soto prospects that I wouldn't put in those trades. Otherwise everyone is fair game. SWR would be on the table in both negotiations as well.

Clemens is DFA'd as he's turned back into Kody Clemens and has no future here so him being bad serves no purpose while Martin, Julien, McCusker, Miranda, etc. can provide information on if they do have futures here so them being bad can at least serve a purpose.

Bader traded for whatever you can get. 

The infield positions can be rotated. Get Keaschall time at 1B/2B (they said he won't play OF because the medical people said no for this year so I won't argue with the medical folks). Julien at 1B/2B. Miranda 1B/3B.

If Culpepper and/or Gonzalez keep doing what they've been doing they'd get a September callup from me. DFA Miranda, Keirsey, McCusker, Julien, Fitzgerald, or whoever shows they have no future with the team in the mean time if that's what's needed to add them both to the 40- and 28-man rosters at that point.

If Gasper gets his feet figured out, he'd get 3 weeks of real ABs from me to see if he looks anything at all like he does in AAA or if he's getting DFA'd over the winter. Or during the season to try somebody else. 

Coulombe traded for whatever you can get. Wentz DFA'd. Paddack traded for whatever you can get. 

The thought here is that this pitching gives you a chance to be great if you can get the offense to the 10-12th range in baseball the next 2 years. I don't know that this collection of hitters has any shot at that, but spend the rest of this season figuring some things out about a few guys. Because if the answer is that none of the guys sneaking up on, or already reaching, arbitration are guys who can hit in the top 5 of a playoff lineup then you probably need to blow things up during the offseason because you're going to lose all your pitching before the lineup is ready. If you have to blow it up this offseason you can turn around and spin Alcantara into a big time prospect package if he has a great rest of the season as he seems to be getting himself straightened out. You can sell Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Duran, Jax, and Varland for an entire farm system worth of prospects.

I realize many are ready to blow it up now, but truly blowing it up means trading all the pitching. There's no sense in keeping them around for the next 2 years if you don't have any position players. So, I'd like to spend the next 3 months giving all the ABs to guys who may have futures here to see if there's anything there. I know many have given up on them, and are probably right. But unless you're advocating for trading Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Duran, and Jax then I don't know what else you can do the rest of this season besides run with the pre-arb or arb 1 guys and see if there's any signs of life. Unless you're going to blow up your farm system trying to trade for offensive pieces for the next 2 seasons to match the pitching and Buxton/Correa timelines. I think that's an awful idea as the likely outcome is you end up with a playoff series win and then an awful team with an awful farm system come 2028. But it is the other option.

• C: Ryan Jeffers ($4.70M)
• 1B: Luke Keaschall ($.8M)
• 2B: Brooks Lee ($0.80M)
• 3B: Royce Lewis ($2.30M)
• SS: Carlos Correa ($36.00M)
• LF: McCusker ($.8M)
• CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M)
• RF: Matt Wallner ($0.80M)
• DH: Ed Julien ($.8M)
• 4th OF: Dashawn Keirsey Jr ($0.80M)
• Utility: Jose Miranda ($.8M)
• Utility: Austin Martin ($0.80M)
• Backup C: Harry Ford ($.8M)
• NA: Dead Money Here ($0.00M)
• SP1: David Festa ($0.80M)
• SP2: Joe Ryan ($3.80M)
• SP3: Bailey Ober ($4.30M)
• SP4: Sandy Alcantara ($17.3M)
• SP5: Simeon Woods Richardson ($0.80M)
• RP: Jhoan Duran ($3.70M)
• RP: Brock Stewart ($0.80M)
• RP: Griffin Jax ($2.60M)
• RP: Travis Adams ($.8M)
• RP: Cole Sands ($0.80M)
• RP: Justin Topa ($1.30M)
• RP: Louie Varland ($0.80M)
• RP: Cycle through arms ($0.80M)
• NA: Dead Money Here ($0.00M)

Payroll is 28.41% under budget

[Major League Ready]

This all looks good but I don't see Miami trading Alcantara unless the return assumes he is fully healthy / Cy Young level pitcher he has been in the past.  That will cost waaaaay more than Emma.  That's going to be Soto / Jenkins and a couple other top 30 prospects.  He had a clunker last time out but why sell low?   My guess is that nobody is going to pony up what they want unless he is great between now and the deadline.  They will hope that he has a good 2nd half and they can look at trading him over the winter.  

Love the Harry Ford trade.  

[The Great Hambino]

I like this plan.  I don't see the point of trying to win 74 games instead of 68 games

As a general rule, I don't want to trade someone with multiple years of control if you think you can contend while they're still under control.  You can also pivot and trade them in the offseason to kick off a true rebuild if the youngsters don't show you anything when given the opportunity the rest of the year.

 

[chpettit19]

14 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

This all looks good but I don't see Miami trading Alcantara unless the return assumes he is fully healthy / Cy Young level pitcher he has been in the past.  That will cost waaaaay more than Emma.  That's going to be Soto / Jenkins and a couple other top 30 prospects.  He had a clunker last time out but why sell low?   My guess is that nobody is going to pony up what they want unless he is great between now and the deadline.  They will hope that he has a good 2nd half and they can look at trading him over the winter.  

Love the Harry Ford trade.  

I don't expect them to trade Alcantara, but I also don't expect it to take a top 10 to 15 global prospect to get it done if they do. The Athletic had an article yesterday where 40 execs were polled on who the best starters, relievers, and position players they think will get traded are. Alcantara was the player mentioned the most overall. By far, apparently. I wouldn't have guessed that, but that's what the article said which is why I included him here because it's apparently an actual possibility he gets dealt.

I think a top 50 global prospect is enough to build a package around. If Miami sees Emma that way. They may not value him that highly. None of us can know, but Fangraphs (42), MLB (46), and Keith Law (19) all just released rankings with him still in the top 50. I think you can build a package around a top 50 global prospect, SWR, Raya, Morris, pitcher Culpepper, Winokur, DeBarge, Gonzalez, Schobel, etc. that gets Miami listening awfully closely. If they sell at all. They're the hottest team in baseball so they may be the ones calling us about Joe Ryan in 3 weeks trying to sell us on Robby Snelling and Joe Mack.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't expect them to trade Alcantara, but I also don't expect it to take a top 10 to 15 global prospect to get it done if they do. The Athletic had an article yesterday where 40 execs were polled on who the best starters, relievers, and position players they think will get traded are. Alcantara was the player mentioned the most overall. By far, apparently. I wouldn't have guessed that, but that's what the article said which is why I included him here because it's apparently an actual possibility he gets dealt.

I think a top 50 global prospect is enough to build a package around. If Miami sees Emma that way. They may not value him that highly. None of us can know, but Fangraphs (42), MLB (46), and Keith Law (19) all just released rankings with him still in the top 50. I think you can build a package around a top 50 global prospect, SWR, Raya, Morris, pitcher Culpepper, Winokur, DeBarge, Gonzalez, Schobel, etc. that gets Miami listening awfully closely. If they sell at all. They're the hottest team in baseball so they may be the ones calling us about Joe Ryan in 3 weeks trying to sell us on Robby Snelling and Joe Mack.

I have heard and seen a lot of talk about Alcantara too.  You would think their fans would riot if they remain hot and still sell him off.  Their payroll is only $67M but he is by far the highest paid player.  This one will be interesting to watch.

BTW ... The $67M is with $12M retained for Avisail Garcia which drops to $5M next year.  They don't need to save the money but this franchise makes the Twins look like wild spenders.

[Riverbrian]

Did you trade Pablo? 

If so... what did we get back? 

[chpettit19]

25 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Did you trade Pablo? 

If so... what did we get back? 

No, he's in a "dead money" slot on the blueprint form that I was unaware wasn't going to show up on here. I assume because he's hurt. I would've put him in a rotation spot had I known that the format didn't come over the same. 

[Riverbrian]

3 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

No, he's in a "dead money" slot on the blueprint form that I was unaware wasn't going to show up on here. I assume because he's hurt. I would've put him in a rotation spot had I known that the format didn't come over the same. 

The dead money slots show no dollars attached. So his 17 million would have to be tacked on? 

[Mike Sixel]

If you can get him for Emma, sure. Otherwise I mostly agree. Nothing changes until Lewis and CC hit or are gone anyway. Between them and catcher, that's a third of the roster not expected to hit.... Or they can win if two of them hit. 

Or not. I'm just not sure how to feel about Emma. So I guess yes, deal him?

[chpettit19]

23 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

The dead money slots show no dollars attached. So his 17 million would have to be tacked on? 

No, it's counted in there. There's 3 other dead money spots for him (21.5), Dobnak (3), and Tonkin (1) that don't show on here for some reason. 

[chpettit19]

19 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

If you can get him for Emma, sure. Otherwise I mostly agree. Nothing changes until Lewis and CC hit or are gone anyway. Between them and catcher, that's a third of the roster not expected to hit.... Or they can win if two of them hit. 

Or not. I'm just not sure how to feel about Emma. So I guess yes, deal him?

I think he's super boom or bust and not much in the middle. But, mostly, I don't think he can stay healthy and if I could get top 50 global prospect value for him I'd get it. I honestly have no idea what kind of value he has across the league, though. I don't expect him to be traded, but if another team sees him as super valuable and would give up a big time piece for him I'd move him without thinking twice.