Josh Willingham will have knee scoped

[johnnydakota]

I think they were shopping Span aggressively because they had Revere. I think they also put Revere out there but didn't plan on trading both of them. Once that happened Willy was removed from the market and might not have been actively on it while TR was working on a Span/Revere deal.

 

While Span had a team friendly contract ,Ben was cheaper.So im guessing Terry wanted to

see what value both had , and decided hey lets trade them both,Because we had Mastroianni ,with Hicks and Benson in the wings

[johnnydakota]

Because it makes the team better. Isn't that why this game is played in the first place?

 

Maybe Im not saying it correctly, why spend any money if you cant make a profit off of it?

Why sign a player who has no value to another team? Especially when you are in a rebuilding stage, why not sign F.A. that can help your team, (and help sell season tickets)

And who can later be traded for quality prospects?

 

To me if you spend 21 million ,You should be able to trade that value , or it is not an asset, but a debit....

[Brock Beauchamp]

Maybe Im not saying it correctly, why spend any money if you cant make a profit off of it?

Why sign a player who has no value to another team? Especially when you are in a rebuilding stage, why not sign F.A. that can help your team, (and help sell season tickets)

And who can later be traded for quality prospects?

 

To me if you spend 21 million ,You should be able to trade that value , or it is not an asset, it is a asset but a debit....

 

Again, Josh Willingham is an asset at $21m over three seasons.

 

But is he an asset for $17m over 2 1/2 seasons and a B-level prospect?

 

Not if I'm the opposing GM. And if you can only get a C-level prospect for Willingham, that's not enough to pull the trigger. The Twins are absolutely bursting at the seams with C-level prospects. Hell, going into the season they had over half a dozen B-or-higher level prospects.

 

It was a calculated risk to keep Willingham and in my opinion, it was a good calculated risk.

[stringer bell]

I'm a Cuddy guy all the way. The time was right for him to leave Minnesota and Willingham proved to be more than a replacement. However, I think it is wrong to use WAR, especially D-WAR as the sole gauge of a player's value. Cuddyer is a far better player than Willingham this year, but WAR pegs him closest among the Twins to Florimon (and his .225 BA) this year. That is a crock. Regarding the defense of Willingham vs. Cuddyer, I have seen Willingham take more lousy routes to balls and make more misplays in one year than Cuddyer did in his years since he primarily became a right fielder. Straight out leg speed is no contest and throwing arms are no contest, so I dispute the defensive WAR values attached to each. Willingham, when healthy, was the slugger for a season or more that someone like Cuddyer will never be, but he is being compensated pretty fairly as is the guy in Colorado for what each contribute.

[stringer bell]

Here's another fairer angle to compare Hammer/Cuddy: OPS+ for Willingham in 215 games is 131. Cuddy in 164 is 120. So, at this point Hammer has been both a better hitter and more durable. However, six weeks from now, the latter won't be true.

[johnnydakota]

An asset is some thing you can sell or trade ,for value.....

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm a Cuddy guy all the way. The time was right for him to leave Minnesota and Willingham proved to be more than a replacement. However, I think it is wrong to use WAR, especially D-WAR as the sole gauge of a player's value. Cuddyer is a far better player than Willingham this year, but WAR pegs him closest among the Twins to Florimon (and his .225 BA) this year. That is a crock. Regarding the defense of Willingham vs. Cuddyer, I have seen Willingham take more lousy routes to balls and make more misplays in one year than Cuddyer did in his years since he primarily became a right fielder. Straight out leg speed is no contest and throwing arms are no contest, so I dispute the defensive WAR values attached to each. Willingham, when healthy, was the slugger for a season or more that someone like Cuddyer will never be, but he is being compensated pretty fairly as is the guy in Colorado for what each contribute.

 

Half seasons of WAR are really sketchy but I used 1 1/2 seasons of WAR to gauge the players.

 

WAR is far from perfect but given the fact that both players are corner outfielders with the same basic profile (RH hitter, slugger, bad defense), it's one of the better metrics to compare the two.

 

And I only used dWAR over their careers to prove a point. Both are bad defensively. The eye test and metrics tell us the same thing. They both suck in the field.

[Brock Beauchamp]

An asset is some thing you can sell or trade ,for value.....

 

No, an asset is something that is valuable. The fact that is it not valuable to every single person does not negate its "assety-ness".

 

And again:

 

The Twins paid $21m for Willingham and have received extremely good value on that $21m commitment.

 

The fact that teams won't give up a B-level prospect and $17m for Willingham does not mean that Willingham is suddenly value-less. The cost of entry for another team is higher than it was for the Twins.

 

For the last time. Giving up money is one thing. Giving up money and another asset is something entirely different.

[chopper0080]

Honest question, when is the last time Ryan traded a player at the trade deadline for a average prospect?

 

I ask because I can't think of one and I don't believe Ryan like trading for fringe prospects. It seems he prefers high potential prospects (who wouldn't) but more than that, I think he likes to reward the players in his minor league system rather than add bodies that will take playing time away from his own guys.

 

As far as the rest of the thread goes, I don't see the Twins moving Doumit. They value him too much as a backup catcher and I believe they see him as a significantly better player than anything at AA or AAA.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Honest question, when is the last time Ryan traded a player at the trade deadline for a average prospect?

 

I ask because I can't think of one and I don't believe Ryan like trading for fringe prospects. It seems he prefers high potential prospects (who wouldn't) but more than that, I think he likes to reward the players in his minor league system rather than add bodies that will take playing time away from his own guys.

 

Does Sweet Drew qualify as an average prospect? If so, 2007 when Ryan traded Son of Sal and Random Prospect X for Luis Castillo.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Maybe Im not saying it correctly, why spend any money if you cant make a profit off of it?

Why sign a player who has no value to another team? Especially when you are in a rebuilding stage, why not sign F.A. that can help your team, (and help sell season tickets)

And who can later be traded for quality prospects?

 

To me if you spend 21 million ,You should be able to trade that value , or it is not an asset, but a debit....

 

First off, he did sign an asset that is of value to others. The biggest problem you fail to recognize is that value is different to different people. As well, there's another concept called risk that changes the value of said asset... And risk too is a somewhat arbitrary value.

 

To every other GM in the league, Ryan overpaid to get Willingham. That's how he came here. Ryan offered 3/21 and no one else was willing to beat that offer, so Willingham signed with the Twins. 2.5 months later, it's now a 2.5/17M deal. He hasn't solved the injury concerns that made others walk away, but he's clearly outperforming the contract. Now, however, teams have to not only come up with 17M and a roster spot for 2 1/2 years, but they also have to surrender a prospect to get him... I don't see a ton of teams willing to do that last year. Just dont'. Had he kept up where he left off and not hurt his knee, I'd be willing to bet he'd have been just as sought after as Perkins will be... if not more.

 

It's a value/risk proposition, and that's a very fluid process. I don't get where you fault Ryan for not signing an asset that wasn't valuable to others. He is valuable both to the Twins and to others, just not worth what you'd like him to be.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Mienkewitcz for Jones.

[jokin]

1)

I understand your point and I agree with it but I have to admit that banging on the payroll drum is getting a little tired, jokin. It doesn't need to be brought up in every thread that involves a Twins player.

 

No matter whether the Twins spent that extra money or not, Willingham is younger and has offered more production than Cuddyer has in Colorado. Money aspects aside, that means it was a good, smart acquisition by Ryan.

 

 

 

You're making the assumption that Ryan was offered something of real value for Willingham. It's possible he was. It's also possible that he wasn't. Ryan did not hesitate to trade two outfielders this offseason. It stands to reason that had he received a quality offer on the third, he would have made that deal in a heartbeat.

 

I think it's pretty clear that Occam's Razor applies to Willingham. Ryan traded Denard Span, a very good outfielder because it brought back Alex Meyer. He then traded his only other centerfielder, Ben Revere, because it brought back Trevor May and Vance Worley.

2)

It's unlikely that Ryan so prized Josh Willingham that he refused to trade him while his two younger centerfielders were completely expendable.

 

1)

Complaints about the complaints concerning payroll could be offered the same observation about also being tiresome. Analogically, putting the highest quality wood putty into 3 out 8 leaks in the sinking ship of state is hardly grounds derv-ed of nominations for Executive of the Year. Remember, the rationale given by ownership was that the new stadium was going to "solve" the problems about being consistently competitive with the big market teams and not having to endure "10 year rebuilding in the wilderness plans." Were we as fans supposed to be as cynical as ownership has proven to be, or were we naive to think that the organization would so quickly break up "The Plan" after just one disastrous season in 2011???

 

 

2)

The Occam's Razor analogy should have little play in a club that traded away 2 starting OFers for 2 starting pitchers years away from seeing the majors and another SP who was cast away from the Phillies in favor of signing FA John Lannan- a player that Ryan didn't want from the Nats- people forget that Lannan could have been acquired as a throw-in by the Twins in the Span trade. Also, the term "outfielder" can only loosely be applied to Josh, especially when he's playing hurt. Trading Josh away would have actually fit in perfectly in Occam's philosophy of parsimony with a team that is, in fact, "rebuilding". Acquiring assets and then flipping them that aren't part of the long-term plan at their highest potential value is a pretty clear Occam's Razor rationale.

[jokin]

No, an asset is something that is valuable. The fact that is it not valuable to every single person does not negate its "assety-ness".

 

And again:

 

The Twins paid $21m for Willingham and have received extremely good value on that $21m commitment.

 

The fact that teams won't give up a B-level prospect and $17m for Willingham does not mean that Willingham is suddenly value-less. The cost of entry for another team is higher than it was for the Twins.

 

For the last time. Giving up money is one thing. Giving up money and another asset is something entirely different.

 

Where's this $17M number coming from? Josh is a FA after next year--$7M + $3.5M left this year.

[jokin]

While Span had a team friendly contract ,Ben was cheaper.So im guessing Terry wanted to

see what value both had , and decided hey lets trade them both,Because we had Mastroianni ,with Hicks and Benson in the wings

 

And Arcia!

[jorgenswest]

Somehow the Twins need to move Doumit or Willingham before next year.

 

They both are liabilities in the field becoming greater liabilities. They both will still have offensive value. Either can be valuable in a Jim Thome type role.

 

The Twins talk about how they value defense as the Twins way. Their decisions the last two years show otherwise. They may value avoiding errors, but they certainly don't value as highly players who can take away a base hit with their ability.

 

The Twin pitchers have seen enough weak hits fall in front of their corner outfielders. They have seen enough pitches in the bottom quarter of the strike zone called a ball.

 

Trade one. Retain the other as DH. Don't give them both to Gardy next year.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1)

Complaints about the complaints concerning payroll could be offered the same observation about also being tiresome.

 

You're misunderstanding me:

 

That was not a request.

 

Barraging every other thread with payroll complaints and dragging that thread off-topic is not something we, as admins, enjoy seeing. It's also a large cause of many of the complaints we get about the forums in general.

 

This thread was about Josh Willingham's knee problem and general performance, not another reason to start complaining about how Ryan did not spend a certain amount of money during this past offseason. Hell, most of us agree that he didn't spend enough money in the offseason. The difference is that most around here have already said their piece on the topic and re-hashing the same topic time and time and time again does nothing except drive complaints about the forums and negativity.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Where's this $17M number coming from? Josh is a FA after next year--$7M + $3.5M left this year.

 

There were many people complaining about the (lack of) return on Josh Willingham in July of 2012, at which point he was owed roughly $17m.

[John Bonnes]

Does Sweet Drew qualify as an average prospect? If so, 2007 when Ryan traded Son of Sal and Random Prospect X for Luis Castillo.

 

Or last year when he traded Liriano for Escobar and Hernandez. I actually think Ryan does quite a bit of this. This is how he got Bartlett and Punto and Silva. One could even put Nathan/Bonser/Liriano into that category. None were huge assets at the time.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Or last year when he traded Liriano for Escobar and Hernandez. I actually think Ryan does quite a bit of this. This is how he got Bartlett and Punto and Silva. One could even put Nathan/Bonser/Liriano into that category. None were huge assets at the time.

 

Wow, I completely forgot about the Bartlett deal.

[kab21]

The Twins have what seems to be about 5,000 outfielders climbing through the system at any given moment. While Ryan probably felt comfortable with Revere taking over for Span, why wouldn't he feel comfortable with someone taking over for Willingham? After all, he had his choice of Parmelee, Doumit, Arcia, maybe even Plouffe.

 

And if he later felt comfortable also trading Revere, his assumed reluctance to move Willingham doesn't make much sense. He was perfectly happy to walk into 2013 with no real centerfielder on the roster. Why would he be so concerned about starting the season with no real leftfielder on the roster?

 

Parmelee was starting in RF. Doumit was starting at DH. Plouffe was starting at 3B. Arcia was young and is probably the only realistic backup if someone got injured. Long term the Twins have a lot of OF'ers in the system but that doesn't mean you can replace 3 OF'ers by opening day.

 

I think Ryan might have preferred to trade Willy instead of Revere but he had a good offer on the table. At that point you can't delay trade talks and try to set something up for Willingham. He was probably hoping that Willy could have a nice year and trade at the deadline but that isn't happening now.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think Ryan might have preferred to trade Willy instead of Revere but he had a good offer on the table. At that point you can't delay trade talks and try to set something up for Willingham. He was probably hoping that Willy could have a nice year and trade at the deadline but that isn't happening now.

 

Absolutely. I agree with all of this. My only real point of contention is that Ryan wasn't shopping Willingham.

[jokin]

Parmelee was starting in RF. Doumit was starting at DH. Plouffe was starting at 3B. Arcia was young and is probably the only realistic backup if someone got injured. Long term the Twins have a lot of OF'ers in the system but that doesn't mean you can replace 3 OF'ers by opening day.

 

I think Ryan might have preferred to trade Willy instead of Revere but he had a good offer on the table. At that point you can't delay trade talks and try to set something up for Willingham. He was probably hoping that Willy could have a nice year and trade at the deadline but that isn't happening now.

 

Except that Ryan already had those 2 other spots replaced on the very days they traded Span and Revere- and they had their back-up set, as well. There are alwasy plenty of FA OF roster-place-holders and guys like Clete Thomas in the system that could have held down the LF spot until the situation with Arcia (and Thomas, himself) gained more clarity. In addition, Gardy has also proven he was willing to resume playing time for Doumit in the OF, as well.

 

Based on the lack of virtually any transaction activity from mid-December to Spring Training (Rafael Perez signing in February was virtually the only activity during those 3.5 months by the Twins), the Twins either:

 

turned the phones off,

didn't hear an offer worth considering,

were convinced that Willingham was a cornerstone piece of the franchise for the life of his contract or,

were banking on a 2013 July deadline deal.... they gambled and lost. It happens.

[diehardtwinsfan]

turned the phones off,

didn't hear an offer worth considering,

were convinced that Willingham was a cornerstone piece of the franchise for the life of his contract or,

were banking on a 2013 July deadline deal.... they gambled and lost. It happens.

 

It's probably a mix between 2 and 4. I'm not sure why it is that people are getting so upset about that. There was no indication anywhere that the Twins were getting some serious offers for Willingham.

[jokin]

It's probably a mix between 2 and 4. I'm not sure why it is that people are getting so upset about that. There was no indication anywhere that the Twins were getting some serious offers for Willingham.

 

I'm not sure it's "so upset", as much as the organization needing to define its intentions on being either a rebuilding or contending team and further, recognizing when you HAVE to sell high, even if the "high" isn't getting you the return you hoped for- you take the most "serious" offer out there. It is certainly arguable that there are many contending teams this year that have major underperformers in their DH spot- how hard did the Twins try to sell that option to these prospective teams (especially during their dead period leading up to Spring Training), perhaps as part of a bigger package?

 

This certainly is not coming about as some new revelation, the debate about moving Willingham.....-

 

for heaven sakes, the guy was in the midst of his Career Year at age 33-

 

.....was going on one year ago to the day, and continued into the offseason. Certainly, the Span trade to the Nats had been brewing for 2 years and had to have been factored in to how the Twins envisioned their 2013 OF already. Did the surprise Revere offer from the Phillies really convince the Twins to hold steady on Willingham? Apparently so. The Twins missed their window on Willingham, whatever it may have been; hopefully, he has a full recovery so he can be salvageable as a much-needed RH power bat over the last year and a half of his contract.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm not sure it's "so upset", as much as the organization needing to define its intentions on being either a rebuilding or contending team and further, recognizing when you HAVE to sell high, even if the "high" isn't getting you the return you hoped for- you take the most "serious" offer out there. It is certainly arguable that there are many contending teams this year that have major underperformers in their DH spot- how hard did the Twins try to sell that option to these prospective teams (especially during their dead period leading up to Spring Training), perhaps as part of a bigger package?

 

This certainly is not coming about as some new revelation, the debate about moving Willingham.....-

 

for heaven sakes, the guy was in the midst of his Career Year at age 33-

 

.....was going on one year ago to the day, and continued into the offseason. Certainly, the Span trade to the Nats had been brewing for 2 years and had to have been factored in to how the Twins envisioned their 2013 OF already. Did the surprise Revere offer from the Phillies really convince the Twins to hold steady on Willingham? Apparently so. The Twins missed their window on Willingham, whatever it may have been; hopefully, he has a full recovery so he can be salvageable as a much-needed RH power bat over the last year and a half of his contract.

 

When the Twins ended up with a C prospect for you, you would have been the first in line saying they didn't get enough.

 

The organization has defined it's intentions... it's rather obvious. What they haven't done is let everyone know what their intentions are. Part of that is that they want people to come to the games and coming out and saying "We're rebuilding" isn't going to do that. But don't kid your self, they treated this season as a rebuilding year and that was very obvious. That's why both Span and Revere got traded, as the Twins used their surplus at center to improve their lack of pitching. I don't think trading Span and Revere precluded trading Willingham, and there's no evidence of that. I do think that Ryan couldn't get anything of value to justify trading Willingham...

 

And I keep saying this over and over and over again, but if you want to get good value for trades, you have to be willing to say no... Otherwise, you'll rarely ever get value.