chpettit19’s 2025 Payroll Blueprint: Up the middle defense and trust the kids

[chpettit19]

Paddack and Vazquez salary dumped for whatever. Don't care what the return is, just need the money for Kim. Castro would return a legitimate prospect, I believe, and I'll turn the bench over to the youth. Since I'm the new GM/POBO I've now got a say in on field strategy so the over managing would stop or Rocco would find a new team to pinch hit constantly for. My team has a more set lineup and Willi wasn't going to be as valuable for us as Kim's glove and experience for the youth will be.

Emma gets a spot on the opening day roster and doesn't need to fear losing that spot unless he's completely and utterly overwhelmed with no signs of finding himself.

Elias Diaz can provide defense and no offense for significantly less money than Vazquez. He was released last August and the Padres signed him to a minor league deal 2 weeks later. Maybe I'm way off and that 3 mil estimate is too low, but I disagree that all glove no offense catchers can't be found for pretty darn cheap and 3 is half of the 6 he made last year.

Keirsey, Helman, and Martin are just space holder names for those spots. If Julien or Lee step up and tear AAA apart in the first half you worry about finding a spot for them then. Yes, I realize that's the completely opposite stance from handing Emma an opening day job. But I only have the money to make 1 move and solidifying the defense around my pitching staff while giving me a shot at developing a young star was the path I chose with my 1 move.

I think I can build a dominant bullpen with Canterino hopefully being able to hold up in a 1 inning role at some point and being able to use Sands, Varland, and Henriquez as 2 inning weapons to be able to support the 2 young rotation spots with the 3 veterans going 6+ in the majority of their starts.

• C: Ryan Jeffers ($4.70M)
• 1B: Jose Miranda ($0.80M)
• 2B: Ha-Seong Kim ($15M)
• 3B: Royce Lewis ($2.30M)
• SS: Carlos Correa ($36.00M)
• LF: Emmanuel Rodriguez ($.8M)
• CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M)
• RF: Matt Wallner ($0.80M)
• DH: Trevor Larnach ($2.1M)
• 4th OF: Dashawn Keirsey ($.8M)
• Utility: Michael Helman ($.8M)
• Utility: Austin Martin ($.8M)
• Backup C: Elias Diaz ($3M)
• NA: Dead Money Here ($0.00M)
• SP1: Pablo Lopez ($21.50M)
• SP2: Joe Ryan ($3.80M)
• SP3: Bailey Ober ($4.30M)
• SP4: Simeon Woods Richardson ($.8M)
• SP5: David Festa ($.8M)
• RP: Jhoan Duran ($3.70M)
• RP: Griffin Jax ($2.6M)
• RP: Brock Stewart ($.8M)
• RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.50M)
• RP: Cole Sands ($0.80M)
• RP: Justin Topa ($1.30M)
• RP: Louie Varland ($0.80M)
• RP: Ronny Henriquez ($0.80M)
• NA: Dead Money Here ($0.00M)

Payroll is 2.77% under budget

[tony&rodney]

Two guys who catch the ball being added to the roster seems better to me than most plans. As a pitcher it feels better to see EmRod in LF and Kim at 2B than the alternatives. Sure hope Miranda and Lewis can play the corners. I'm really hoping to see them improve but haven't seen much yet to support that wish.

 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Two guys who catch the ball being added to the roster seems better to me than most plans. As a pitcher it feels better to see EmRod in LF and Kim at 2B than the alternatives. Sure hope Miranda and Lewis can play the corners. I'm really hoping to see them improve but haven't seen much yet to support that wish.

 

I thought Miranda looked improved at 3B last year compared to his rookie year. I don't expect him to ever be a great defender, but if he can be average at 1B I'll be happy. I hope the Twins have told him he's not going to see anymore time at 3B unless things have gone pretty bad. Lewis, Lee, Castro, hopefully Keaschall all ahead of him. Just give him a 1B glove and let him go to work to get as good as he can.

Lewis, I think, just needs to figure out how to throw a baseball. I've never seen such a gifted athlete look so uncomfortable throwing a ball. I think his glove works fine at 3B if they can fix his throwing motion. But he's here for his bat. You're not going to field an entire team of guys good with both the glove and the bat. The Dodgers don't and they won the World Series. Same with the Rangers before them. If Lewis hits like we hope, I'll survive with his glove if I have 2 gold glove quality guys up the middle with Buxton behind them and Emma in left. That's a solid defensive team the pitchers would be pretty comfortable throwing in front of, in my opinion. Spotting me a 3 run lead helps me feel comfortable on the mound, too. 

[bean5302]

I do like good defense, and Kim should be a great defender at 2B, but with a slightly above league average bat, his ceiling is pretty low for like 3 WAR in my opinion. Where It takes 10 DRS to equal 30pts of OPS = 1 WAR. As you know, I do not like using DRS/OAA for a single season to judge performance as they're so unstable, but I think the signing make a lot more sense if the Twins pushed Correa to 3B and kept the superior fielder, Kim, at SS. Correa has an outstanding arm (still not as strong as Kim's), but his range is limited. Putting Correa at 3B makes use of his cannon arm while minimizing the impact of his limited speed. Correa will be a better 3B than SS, which will offset the 5 run adjustment.

Also, I think people are surprisingly low on Kim's contract. Trevor Story got 6yrs $140MM with a defense first profile. Dansby Swanson got 7yrs and $177MM with a similar profile and age as Kim. Swanson was coming off a better season, but Story didn't have an impressive contract year. There is a huge concern with Kim in that he had labrum surgery his throwing shoulder. If his shoulder strength doesn't return, 2B might be a required positional change, but it would mask his loss of shoulder strength.

I'm seeing this roster at 86-87 wins with the shifting of Kim back to SS. Better than current by a couple wins, but it needs a RHB for DH/OF somewhere in here which could elevate the roster to a 90 win team.

[chpettit19]

48 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I do like good defense, and Kim should be a great defender at 2B, but with a slightly above league average bat, his ceiling is pretty low for like 3 WAR in my opinion. Where It takes 10 DRS to equal 30pts of OPS = 1 WAR. As you know, I do not like using DRS/OAA for a single season to judge performance as they're so unstable, but I think the signing make a lot more sense if the Twins pushed Correa to 3B and kept the superior fielder, Kim, at SS. Correa has an outstanding arm (still not as strong as Kim's), but his range is limited. Putting Correa at 3B makes use of his cannon arm while minimizing the impact of his limited speed. Correa will be a better 3B than SS, which will offset the 5 run adjustment.

Also, I think people are surprisingly low on Kim's contract. Trevor Story got 6yrs $140MM with a defense first profile. Dansby Swanson got 7yrs and $177MM with a similar profile and age as Kim. Swanson was coming off a better season, but Story didn't have an impressive contract year. There is a huge concern with Kim in that he had labrum surgery his throwing shoulder. If his shoulder strength doesn't return, 2B might be a required positional change, but it would mask his loss of shoulder strength.

I'm seeing this roster at 86-87 wins with the shifting of Kim back to SS. Better than current by a couple wins, but it needs a RHB for DH/OF somewhere in here which could elevate the roster to a 90 win team.

I thought about the Correa to 3B thing, too. If Kim's shoulder is back to what it was and he's 100% it's a conversation I'd have and it'd just be about setting up the best defensive infield alignment I can. If that's Lewis at 2B with Correa and Kim on the left side I'm good with that. Not locked into those positions, but I wouldn't approach Correa about a position change until I see Kim in spring training throwing.

Yeah, Kim may be more in the 20 range than 15. I do think Story and Swanson were paid to be 115-120 OPS+/wRC+ bats instead of the 100-105 bat that Kim is likely expected to be, though. That's not what they've been, and they maybe shouldn't have been paid that way, but I think that's what Chicago and Boston were hoping for/expecting. I don't think they paid them to be league average bats. I think Boston was very much expecting Story to bounce back to a 120 or better bat once he got to Fenway and that's what they paid him for. Kim has always been a step below those other 2 in terms of peak performance with the bat.

None of this really matters as the Twins aren't going to sign Kim. He's likely going to get a multi-year deal and the Twins aren't taking on that kind of financial commitment while they try to sell the team and are in this payroll crunch. The only way we see significant changes to the roster is if they swing a number of trades. It's more than likely going to be a very boring offseason and the Twins are going to be forced to trust their young guys and hope they can step up. Still fun to mess around with some ideas, though.

[tony&rodney]

53 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

None of this really matters as the Twins aren't going to sign Kim. He's likely going to get a multi-year deal and the Twins aren't taking on that kind of financial commitment while they try to sell the team and are in this payroll crunch. The only way we see significant changes to the roster is if they swing a number of trades. It's more than likely going to be a very boring offseason and the Twins are going to be forced to trust their young guys and hope they can step up. Still fun to mess around with some ideas, though.

Frustrating to feel that Falvey & Sons are just going to sit on their hands even as we want to believe that some moves are imminent. There are so many opportunities to engage with other teams. Naturally, there may be constant conversations but the utter lack of movement is discouraging. In your plan above, I'm thinking you have Brooks Lee at AAA, which makes sense. Why not attempt to move Lee for Jeferson Quero? Both have questions hanging over their heads. Julien should have some value as well. Yes, he cratered last year but there are teams that could use a player like Julien and it sure seems like he has been pushed well behind any number of guys in the Twins organization. I'm guessing 5/$75M is enough to sign Kim. Doubt it is even considered though. Finally, If a couple more starting pitchers sign for unexpected teams, the value of Paddack and other starting pitchers goes up.

[chpettit19]

21 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Frustrating to feel that Falvey & Sons are just going to sit on their hands even as we want to believe that some moves are imminent. There are so many opportunities to engage with other teams. Naturally, there may be constant conversations but the utter lack of movement is discouraging. In your plan above, I'm thinking you have Brooks Lee at AAA, which makes sense. Why not attempt to move Lee for Jeferson Quero? Both have questions hanging over their heads. Julien should have some value as well. Yes, he cratered last year but there are teams that could use a player like Julien and it sure seems like he has been pushed well behind any number of guys in the Twins organization. I'm guessing 5/$75M is enough to sign Kim. Doubt it is even considered though. Finally, If a couple more starting pitchers sign for unexpected teams, the value of Paddack and other starting pitchers goes up.

Lee for a catcher is intriguing. I'd do it. But I've been one of the lower people on Lee for a long time. I don't think Julien has much value at all on the market. Unless a team thinks they can rework his swing path. If he were 21 or 22 that'd be one thing, but he'll be 26 next season and teams don't typically give up much for 26 year olds who don't play defense and who's swings need to be overhauled. He's a talented kid, but when your swing is that steep it makes it really hard to hit breaking stuff. He learned that in front of our eyes last year. His approach isn't his problem like people say, it's his inability to hit breaking pitches because of his swing path. Teams aren't going to give up much for the chance to find out if they're the ones who can teach him to hit those pitches.

I think there's deals the Twins could swing that'd trade future for present or present for future, but those aren't really things I'm that interested in. I think the pitching is good enough to win now. I don't think they're loaded with a ton of #1 arms, but I think their top 3 are good and they have enough young arms on the cusp to survive the inevitable pitching injuries. And I think the pen can be great. I didn't think it was last year when they were looking to run out 1-year-wonder vets like Jackson, but with Varland and Sands and other young flame throwers with legit high octane stuff I think they can produce a really good pen that's deeper than usual and can sustain through the year. But I don't know how they fix the position player side easily. I want nothing to do with the washed up 1 year rental vets. You know I'm all in on Emma opening day assuming he looks solid in spring. But you can't trade your mediocre players for good players. I don't see any positions with too many players, I see the opposite. I don't think the Twins have many guys with real value to make real improvements. If they had that we wouldn't be so worried about the talent level of the team.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

...Yeah, Kim may be more in the 20 range than 15. I do think Story and Swanson were paid to be 115-120 OPS+/wRC+ bats instead of the 100-105 bat that Kim is likely expected to be, though...

Swanson's previous 3 seasons = 107 OPS+, previous 114 OPS+
Story's previous 3 seasons = 113 OPS+, previous 102 OPS+
Kim's previous 3 seasons = 103 OPS+, previous 96 OPS+

While Swanson and Story might have been viewed as slightly better than Kim, I don't think its enough to pull Kim below $100MM in total guaranteed value for a 5+ year deal, unless the shoulder is a huge concern and he opts for a 1yr deal at like $25-30MM similar to Correa's pillow contract with the Twins in 2022.

It wouldn't surprise me to see a vesting option contract for Kim if a team wanted to get creative. Like 1 year $20MM deal with a team option for 5 more years at $100MM+ which is automatically vesting at 504+ plate appearances.
 

[chpettit19]

36 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Swanson's previous 3 seasons = 107 OPS+, previous 114 OPS+
Story's previous 3 seasons = 113 OPS+, previous 102 OPS+
Kim's previous 3 seasons = 103 OPS+, previous 96 OPS+

While Swanson and Story might have been viewed as slightly better than Kim, I don't think its enough to pull Kim below $100MM in total guaranteed value for a 5+ year deal, unless the shoulder is a huge concern and he opts for a 1yr deal at like $25-30MM similar to Correa's pillow contract with the Twins in 2022.

It wouldn't surprise me to see a vesting option contract for Kim if a team wanted to get creative. Like 1 year $20MM deal with a team option for 5 more years at $100MM+ which is automatically vesting at 504+ plate appearances.
 

Yeah, Story's contract year with his 102 OPS+ brought his numbers way down, but his 3 seasons before that were all 120 or above. Kim's best has been a 107. Teams could dream on Story getting back to a 120 OPS+. Nobody is dreaming on Kim touching 120. Correa put up multiple 130+ OPS+ seasons before his pillow contract. Swanson is the only guy you've mentioned that Kim is even slightly comparable to when it comes to peak offensive performance. We'll see where he lands, I already said it may be 20 instead of 15, but I don't think it's fair to put him in the same category as Story and Correa offensively. Not the same sort of talent his agents can be selling teams on at all. I'll be absolutely shocked if he gets a $25 mil pillow deal considering he's going to miss the first month of the season. 15-20 seems awfully reasonable based on all the information we have.

[bean5302]

25 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Yeah, Story's contract year with his 102 OPS+ brought his numbers way down, but his 3 seasons before that were all 120 or above. Kim's best has been a 107. Teams could dream on Story getting back to a 120 OPS+. Nobody is dreaming on Kim touching 120. Correa put up multiple 130+ OPS+ seasons before his pillow contract. Swanson is the only guy you've mentioned that Kim is even slightly comparable to when it comes to peak offensive performance. We'll see where he lands, I already said it may be 20 instead of 15, but I don't think it's fair to put him in the same category as Story and Correa offensively. Not the same sort of talent his agents can be selling teams on at all. I'll be absolutely shocked if he gets a $25 mil pillow deal considering he's going to miss the first month of the season. 15-20 seems awfully reasonable based on all the information we have.

You have a very different opinion on the subject than I do. 

[TheLeviathan]

I like the idea.  Honestly....I'd do the same exact thing except hand Lee 2B and go full board into "trust the kids".

I'd probably sink the 15-20M of space freed up into Jeff Hoffman or Paul Sewald or whomever that can afford to add to the pitching staff.

It's time for this team to figure out if this group can be the one they build around or not.  Put them in a position, help them learn it, and see what you got.

[Mike Sixel]

On 12/8/2024 at 6:24 AM, TheLeviathan said:

I like the idea.  Honestly....I'd do the same exact thing except hand Lee 2B and go full board into "trust the kids".

I'd probably sink the 15-20M of space freed up into Jeff Hoffman or Paul Sewald or whomever that can afford to add to the pitching staff.

It's time for this team to figure out if this group can be the one they build around or not.  Put them in a position, help them learn it, and see what you got.

Mostly this...but I don't fire Rocco like the OP does. I also think not trusting Julien to bounce back is an error and they won't get value for him. OTOH, I like the Kim idea. So, hard to say.

[TheLeviathan]

4 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Mostly this...but I don't fire Rocco like the OP does. I also think not trusting Julien to bounce back is an error and they won't get value for him. OTOH, I like the Kim idea. So, hard to say.

Agreed on both.  I think giving up on Julien could be a huge mistake.