An End-Of-Season Update on Trevor Larnach's Soft Stuff Struggles - Caretaker Exclusive

[Davy Andrews]

Trevor Larnach improved against soft stuff in 2024, but he still saw more of it than just about any other player. Ever.

Image courtesy of © Orlando Ramirez-Imagn Images

Let’s take a moment to make sure that we appreciate how good a season Trevor Larnach just had. Before the 2024 season, Larnach had played in 188 big-league games over three seasons, running a 96 wRC+ that made him a slightly below-average hitter. In 2024, despite dealing with injuries and some bad batted-ball luck, he put up a wRC+ of 121 over 112 games and 400 plate appearances. That made him the fourth-best hitter on a Twins team that finished the season with a top-10 offense. Look at the difference in his slash line stats.

Season	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+
2021-2023	.222	.315	.385	96
2024	.259	.338	.434	121
Difference	.037	.023	.049	25

Larnach added 37 points of batting average, 23 points of on-base percentage, and 49 points of slugging. After striking out more than a third of the time in his first three seasons, he dropped his strikeout rate all the way to 22%. That was a huge improvement, and it was also absolutely necessary. His defensive limitations mean that in order to pull his own weight, the 6-foot-4, 223-pound Larnach needs to slug, so it’s a big deal that after three years of trying, he was finally able to do so.

If you had to pick one player who epitomized the Minnesota offense, you’d likely go with Matt Wallner, the hot and cold slugger who struck out too much but pulled the ball in the air with unbelievable frequency. Larnach wouldn’t be a bad avatar for the team’s offense either, and not just because he hit well despite struggling to stay healthy. In 2024, 37% of the pitches Larnach saw were either four-seamers or sinkers. Among players who saw at least 750 pitches (roughly 170 plate appearances), that was the lowest fastball rate in all of baseball. In fact, that fastball rate is one of the lowest ever recorded. Sports Info Solutions has been tracking pitches since 2002. Over those 23 years, there have been 4,625 player seasons of at least 400 PAs. Larnach’s fastball rate ranks second from the bottom. That last part shouldn’t necessarily be surprising, because fastball rates have been dropping for as long as we’ve been measuring them, and most likely ever since the game began. In 2024, Larnach almost certainly ran one of the lowest fastball rates in all of baseball history.

As for why that makes him a good representative for the Twins, well, Larnach wasn’t exactly alone. As a team, the Twins saw fastballs just 44.8% of the time, the second-lowest rate in the league. They were the only team in baseball without a single player who took at least 15 PAs and had a fastball rate of 50% or higher. Austin Martin came closest. He saw 466 fastballs and 468 other pitches; if just one got reclassified, he’d be at 50%, exactly.

Player	Fastball%		Player	Fastball%
Austin Martin	49.9		Max Kepler	44.9
Ryan Jeffers	49		Byron Buxton	45.1
Kyle Farmer	48.8		Royce Lewis	43.9
Christian Vázquez	48.8		Jose Miranda	43.7
Manuel Margot	48.5		Alex Kirilloff	39.7
Carlos Correa	47		Edouard Julien	40.8
Matt Wallner	45.8		Carlos Santana	40.7
Willi Castro	46		Trevor Larnach	36.8
Brooks Lee	45.4

 

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[Doctor Gast]

Larnach was probably one of the 1st batters that MLB pitchers focused on to counter MN's HR mania. I didn't think that he'd adjust. But he has and he has surprised me that his SLG has gotten better. I suppose getting doubles is better than SOs to improve your SLG. The League focuses on pitching off-speed junk on the outside part the plate instead of FBs, has plagued the HR happy Twins this season. I'm concerned if Julien can make that adjustment & what kind of hitter will he be.

[LambchoP]

I think if any of our outfielders need to be traded it'll be Larnach, if only because we have way to many left handed corner outfield types. I do hope we keep him though. I could totally see him turning into a Brent Rooker with another team...

[DocBauer]

Larnach isn't going anywhere barring a massive return. He's FINALLY figured it out, despite battling turf toe and a late season leg injury that might have been related to trying to play through the turf toe. 

I read comments to Rocco about why he played Larnach in the #2 hole so often. It's because, as the OP states, he worked hard to become one of the Twins best hitters. Imagine his maturity as a hitter with 2 good feet going forward.

Larnach has a good eye, that's the reason he was able to adapt. What's always surprised me was his opposite field HR and doubles power. Nothing wrong with a solid hitter with big doubles and occasional HR power. But what he needs to do NEXT in his development is to take those breaking pitches he recognizes is to TURN ON THEM. His doubles might go down, or maybe not, but is HR numbers will jump to the 20 range.

Personally, watching him a lot, he's an OK OF. He's just not as bad as some have stated. His arm is solid. With some of the OF talent coming up, he's probably best at 1B...if he can handle it...or as a primary DH. And maybe he's a future trade chip, but I have to laugh a bit that he's a trade chip NOW. Who else plays LF in 2025 unless you move Castro there full time. Then you weaken your bench and versatility. 

Larnach shouldn't be going anywhere soon. And we should be enjoying his development. 

[JD-TWINS]

10 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Larnach isn't going anywhere barring a massive return. He's FINALLY figured it out, despite battling turf toe and a late season leg injury that might have been related to trying to play through the turf toe. 

I read comments to Rocco about why he played Larnach in the #2 hole so often. It's because, as the OP states, he worked hard to become one of the Twins best hitters. Imagine his maturity as a hitter with 2 good feet going forward.

Larnach has a good eye, that's the reason he was able to adapt. What's always surprised me was his opposite field HR and doubles power. Nothing wrong with a solid hitter with big doubles and occasional HR power. But what he needs to do NEXT in his development is to take those breaking pitches he recognizes is to TURN ON THEM. His doubles might go down, or maybe not, but is HR numbers will jump to the 20 range.

Personally, watching him a lot, he's an OK OF. He's just not as bad as some have stated. His arm is solid. With some of the OF talent coming up, he's probably best at 1B...if he can handle it...or as a primary DH. And maybe he's a future trade chip, but I have to laugh a bit that he's a trade chip NOW. Who else plays LF in 2025 unless you move Castro there full time. Then you weaken your bench and versatility. 

Larnach shouldn't be going anywhere soon. And we should be enjoying his development. 

I think he had a really nice season considering the physical ailments. Agree, can’t trade him now - a guy showing these types of improvements needs to get some more leash to potentially be a main cog in the line-up.

He already has 20 HR power (15 HR in ‘24) …… just needs to get more plate appearances. 500 AB’s gets him to 22 HR’s and 75 RBI ….. with 25 doubles. Hoping he can stay healthy and get the extra 150 AB’s over ‘24. These numbers assume no improvement (other than health) so it’s not overly optimistic.