An End-Of-Season Update on Trevor Larnach's Soft Stuff Struggles

Let’s take a moment to make sure that we appreciate how good a season Trevor Larnach just had. Before the 2024 season, Larnach had played in 188 big-league games over three seasons, running a 96 wRC+ that made him a slightly below-average hitter. In 2024, despite dealing with injuries and some bad batted-ball luck, he put up a wRC+ of 121 over 112 games and 400 plate appearances. That made him the fourth-best hitter on a Twins team that finished the season with a top-10 offense. Look at the difference in his slash line stats.

Larnach added 37 points of batting average, 23 points of on-base percentage, and 49 points of slugging. After striking out more than a third of the time in his first three seasons, he dropped his strikeout rate all the way to 22%. That was a huge improvement, and it was also absolutely necessary. His defensive limitations mean that in order to pull his own weight, the 6-foot-4, 223-pound Larnach needs to slug, so it’s a big deal that after three years of trying, he was finally able to do so.

If you had to pick one player who epitomized the Minnesota offense, you’d likely go with Matt Wallner, the hot and cold slugger who struck out too much but pulled the ball in the air with unbelievable frequency. Larnach wouldn’t be a bad avatar for the team’s offense either, and not just because he hit well despite struggling to stay healthy. In 2024, 37% of the pitches Larnach saw were either four-seamers or sinkers. Among players who saw at least 750 pitches (roughly 170 plate appearances), that was the lowest fastball rate in all of baseball. In fact, that fastball rate is one of the lowest ever recorded. Sports Info Solutions has been tracking pitches since 2002. Over those 23 years, there have been 4,625 player seasons of at least 400 PAs. Larnach’s fastball rate ranks second from the bottom. That last part shouldn’t necessarily be surprising, because fastball rates have been dropping for as long as we’ve been measuring them, and most likely ever since the game began. In 2024, Larnach almost certainly ran one of the lowest fastball rates in all of baseball history.

As for why that makes him a good representative for the Twins, well, Larnach wasn’t exactly alone. As a team, the Twins saw fastballs just 44.8% of the time, the second-lowest rate in the league. They were the only team in baseball without a single player who took at least 15 PAs and had a fastball rate of 50% or higher. Austin Martin came closest. He saw 466 fastballs and 468 other pitches; if just one got reclassified, he’d be at 50%, exactly.