These Were the Twins Worst Graded Pitches in 2024

[Matthew Lenz]

A total of 31 pitchers took the bump for the Minnesota Twins in 2024. Let's take a look at which pitches graded out the worst using FanGraphs Pitching+ metric.

Image courtesy of © Peter Aiken-Imagn Images

If you need to review with Pitching+ is, I’d direct you to my previous piece, where I wrote about the best-graded pitches from the 2024 season. I’ll use the same parameters for this article: In order for a Twins pitcher’s offering to make the list, they needed to throw at least 20 innings for the club, end the season in the organization, and have thrown the pitch itself at least 250 times for relievers or 400 times for starters.

Now that the constraints have been set, let's look at the worst pitches for Twins hurlers from the 2024 season.

#5: Bailey Ober's Fastball
Bailey Ober threw his fastball a total of 1,028 times, with a Pitching+ grade of 96 in 2024; that is a bit lower than his 2023 mark of 99. The effectiveness also saw a steep decline, as the pitch went from a very good Statcast-estimate Run Value of 6 in 2023 down to 1 in 2024. Opposing hitters teed off on the pitch, with a 47.2% hard-hit rate, a .506 slugging percentage, and 12 home runs. While the results weren’t pretty in 2023, they weren’t quite that bad.

Ober is an extreme flyball pitcher, who lives dangerously by preferring to throw his sub-92 mile-per-hour fastball up in the zone. While elite extension and above-average induced vertical break are positive characteristics, the preferred location and pitch profile leave very little room for error if you miss your spot. In short, the “stuff” metrics of the pitch aren’t good enough to leave the pitch in the middle of the zone. Study the heat map above, and you'll not that Ober's misses tended to be in that direction, toward the heart of the zone, rather than up above it.

#4 and #3: Jhoan Duran’s Fastball and Splitter (Splinker?)
These next two pitches have me sweatin’ a bit, especially considering Duran’s rollercoaster ride of a second half and the money he’ll be due in arbitration. Duran’s fastball and splitter both grade out as a 95 Pitching+ and, especially for his fastball, the results seem to back up the grade. In 2023, both pitches earned above-average grades and got great results, so what happened to them in 2024?

The fastball dropped a tick in velo and appears to be more “flat” than in 2023, albeit with more arm-side run. Opposing hitters handled the pitch with a .296 batting average and .408 slugging percentage, yet the spin, contact rate and batted-ball data remained similar or even improved slightly in 2024. The splitter/sinker also saw a slight velocity drop, but its spin data and movement profile almost mirrored the 2023 version of the pitch. Results-wise, this pitch got the job done in 2024, with hitters managing only a .237 average and a .362 SLG, but the contact data regressed, resulting in a run value drop of 7 runs. While a deeper dive would be needed to try and get to the bottom of this conundrum, the answer may be as simple as: opposing hitters just know how to beat Jhoan Duran.

#2: Joe Ryan's Splitter
Joe Ryan was having a very successful season prior to his injury, and that was in part due to opposing hitters' struggles against his splitter. That said, a Pitching+ grade of 94 suggests that may not be sustainable over a longer stretch. Or maybe it could?

One way to counter a weak pitch is through pitch sequencing and having a repeatable motion. Excelling in those aspects leads to a concept called “tunneling”. Tunneling is what happens when, regardless of the type of pitch, your delivery, motion, release point, and initial ball flight remain the same, not tipping the hitter off to the type of pitch by throwing the ball down a “tunnel”. The longer the ball takes the same path toward the batter before spin and gravity take over, the less likely they’ll be able to identify and do damage against the pitch. Where Ryan’s splitter doesn’t grade out well, it’s the pitch mix and sequencing that allow it to be successful.

#1: Simeon Wood Richardson’s Fastball
The rookie righty’s fastball is yet another example of a Pitching+ grade that doesn’t match its results. With a grade of 88, you might expect the pitch to be largely ineffective, but instead, it’s his top offering from a quantity and quality perspective. He threw the pitch 924 times in 2024, resulting in a Run Value of 9 thanks to above-average extension and induced vertical break. When thrown high in the zone, these create a very difficult pitch to hit, as you can see in the diagram below showing the hitters' whiff rate by zone.

The issue with Woods Richardson’s fastball is that when he does miss his spot, it becomes a very hittable pitch, which led to opposing hitters batting .258 with a 41.8% hard-hit rate.

If there is one thing to take away from both of these articles, it’s to understand that being a successful pitcher is about more than “velo” and “stuff”. It’s a blend of those things, combined with locating, sequencing, and a myriad of other factors, like repeatable delivery and understanding the hitter's weaknesses. As we’ve learned, pitches that don’t grade out well can still be effective, and pitches that do grade out well can still get knocked around. Pitching and pitch-calling is a beautiful art.

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[DJL44]

There were many times last year where the Twins pitchers were killed by bad pitch location. Often times a pitcher doesn't need to improve his velocity or break, he needs to put the pitch in the right spot.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

An article like this gives me a little bit of PTSD.  Something has to be the worst of the season, but these were pretty bad -- and from some of our better pitchers. 

[bean5302]

Pitching+ uses the actual pitch, the location, and additional situational data when the pitch was thrown. It's not a value which tells you how good the pitch itself is.

If you wanted to know how good a pitch is, you should be using stuff+
https://library.fangraphs.com/pitching/stuff-location-and-pitching-primer/

[old nurse]

So none of the lefty handed contingent, DFAd or demoted had a bad pitch, it was just bad luck. Sign them all back up with a raise 

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, old nurse said:

So none of the lefty handed contingent, DFAd or demoted had a bad pitch, it was just bad luck. Sign them all back up with a raise 

If a big league hitter knows what the pitch is and where it is going he can generally hit it.

[LambchoP]

I'd have thought all those Trevor Richards pitches that hit the ground five feet in front of the plate would have been top of the worst pitches of the year list. I sure hope we stay away from those types of pitchers this year, but it has become Falvey's bullpen plan. Find a handful of guys that are cheap. Either waived guys, huge injury risk or coming back from injury, or just coming off a horrible season and hoping we can turn them into a new pitcher. Look at how all the 2024 relief pitchers we went out and got turned out:(

[bean5302]

If we use Stuff+ to isolate the pitches themselves rather than their location or sequencing or the handedness of the opposing batters. Narrowing it to pitches used more than 5% of the time.

Worst pitches by the starters:
4 Seam Fastball = SWR 71
2 Seamer/Sinker = Louie Varland 94
Cutter = Bailey Ober 84
Splitter = Joe Ryan 101**
Slider = Chris Paddack 71 
Curve = Pablo Lopez 92
Changeup = Chris Paddack 72
Knuckle Curve = Louie Varland 115*, **

Worst pitches by the relievers 30+ IP:
4 Seam Fastball = Steven Okert 71
2 Seamer/Sinker = Cole Sands 76
Cutter = Kody Funderburk 92
Splitter = Cole Sands 111
Slider = Steven Okert 116
Curve = Cole Sands 102
Changeup = Steven Okert 58
Knuckle Curve = Louie Varland 115*, **
*Don't have breakdowns between as starter and as reliever.
**Only pitcher who throws the pitch.