These Were the Twins Best Graded Pitches in 2024

[Matthew Lenz]

A total of 31 pitchers took the bump for the Minnesota Twins in 2024. Let's take a look at which of their particular weapons graded out the best, using FanGraphs's Pitching+ metric.

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

From FanGraphs glossary, “Pitching+, is a model that uses the physical characteristics (Stuff+), location (Location+), and count of each pitch to try to judge the overall quality of the pitcher’s process.” As you’ll see later in this article, a good Pitching+ grade doesn't always correspond to good results, but it's a valuable guide to pitch quality.

For a Twins pitcher’s offering to make the list, they needed to throw at least 20 innings for the club, end the season in the organization, and have thrown the pitch itself at least 250 times for relievers or 400 times for starters. While those were the thresholds identified by FanGraphs, it's worth noting that if it weren’t for the minimum pitch count parameters, this article would solely be about Griffin Jax. His slider, curveball, changeup, and fastball were the top four pitches from the Twins pitching staff.

Alas, the constraints have been set, and with that, let's look at the best pitches from the 2024 season.

#1 Griffin Jax’s Slider (Sweeper)
Jax’s slider earned a Pitching+ grade of 125, and he threw the pitch 400 times. The pitch has not only been his best offering since his 2022 breakout, but is one of the best pitches in all of baseball, accruing a run value of 20. In 2024, opposing batters hit .216, slugged .273, and whiffed a whopping 45.3% of the time, according to Baseball Savant. At over 3,000 rotations per minute (rpm), the pitch regularly had anywhere from 12 to 18 inches of glove-side movement.

#2 Griffin Jax’s Fastball
At an average velocity of 97.0 mph and with above-average vertical movement, Jax’s fastball graded out at a 113 Pitching+. This was his go-to offering against left-handed batters, who batted .167 and slugged .262 versus the offering. But that’s not to suggest that righties could handle the pitch, either. They batted a measly .143, but did have a little more pop with a .343 slugging percentage. Like his slider, this is one of the better pitches in all of baseball.

#3 Simeon Woods Richardson’s Changeup
How does a pitch with a 113 Pitching+ also have a run value of -14 and an opponent slugging percentage of .622? For starters, Woods Richardson may want to stop throwing the pitch to righties, who had seven extra-base hits (including five home runs) against the 83-mph offering. He may also want to learn how to “pull the string,” as his vertical drop on the pitch is 2.3 inches less than comparable pitches, which lead to hitters taking advantage of middle-middle or middle-in offerings. Brooks Baseball provides us with the slugging percentages by zone location from last season, and you can see the lower he works, the more effective his changeup becomes.

I’d be interested to see the lower third of the zone divided into sixths. While the teams appear to tee off on the pitch even when it’s low within the strike zone, the pitch's contour map on Baseball Savant makes me think a lot of that success is a result of the pitch being left closer to middle-middle than middle-low.

#4 Caleb Thielbar’s Slider
Thielbar definitely took his lumps in 2024 and, despite a Pitching+ of 111, his slider is partly to blame. Like Woods Richardson’s changeup, we have another pitch that grades out well, but for which the results don’t match: Opposing hitters batted .302 and slugged .434, despite generating a whiff rate of 30.7%. Naturally, this makes me question the location and handedness splits, where we find that he really grooves the pitch to right-handed batters. Albeit in a fairly limited sample, righties destroyed the pitch with a .571 batting average, and Brooks Baseball shows that he often left the pitch over the middle of the plate. That's not a recipe for success, especially when you’re facing an opposite-handed hitter, and definitely not how the 37-year-old wanted to end his tenure with the Twins or enter free agency.

#5 Jorge Alcala’s Slider
Thankfully, another plus pitch (111 Pitching +) got results to match the data in 2024, to the tune of a .190 opponent batting average and .323 opponent slugging. Moreover, Alcala generated a whiff rate of 32.6% and 31 strikeouts over 360 pitches. The pitch doesn’t have a lot of vertical movement, but does have above-average glove-side break, at 3.6 inches on Brooks, and the improvement in production may be due to an increase in velocity of almost two miles per hour while maintaining his spin rate from previous seasons. 

What started out as a just-for-fun exercise has turned into more of a project, trying to make sense of why a pitch that grades out so well doesn't always get those results. What are your thoughts on the discrepancy between a pitcher's Pitching + grade and the actual results?

View full article

[LambchoP]

Jax and Alcala's slider are wicked pitches. If Alcala could come up with a fourth pitch like Jax he could be one of our best relievers next year. I think we have the makings of a solid pen with...

Duran, Jax, Sands

Alcala, Stewart

Topa, Varland, Henriquez 

Moran/Headrick/Funderburk and one or two FA

Build a top notch bullpen like CLE this year and it'll take some pressure off our rotation, which should be...

Lopez, Ober, Ryan

SWR, Paddack/FA

Festa, Mathews and Morris in AAA. But I'm betting they just go with Festa at number 5, if they can dump Paddack and his 7.5 million dollars.

[DJL44]

50 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

Moran/Headrick/Funderburk and one or two FA

Thielbar could be one of those free agents. The Twins like the players they had on the roster last season or they would have cut several of them sooner. At the right price they will bring them back.

[LambchoP]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Thielbar could be one of those free agents. The Twins like the players they had on the roster last season or they would have cut several of them sooner. At the right price they will bring them back.

Maybe they can get Theilbar on a minor league deal next year since he struggled so bad this year.

[deborah1]

Griffin Jax's slider was insane this year! That spin rate and movement made it so hard to hit.

[bean5302]

If we use Stuff+ to isolate the pitches themselves rather than location or sequencing
Best pitches by the starters:
4 Seam Fastball = David Festa 107
2 Seamer/Sinker = Joe Ryan 110
Cutter = Zebby Matthews 96
Splitter = Joe Ryan 101
Slider = Joe Ryan 126
Curve = Zebby Matthews 107
Changeup = Bailey Ober 116
Knuckle Curve = Louie Varland* 115

Best pitches by the relievers 30+ IP:
4 Seam Fastball = Jhoan Duran 121
2 Seamer/Sinker = Jorge Alcala 119
Cutter = Cole Sands 96
Splitter = Jhoan Duran 146
Slider = Griffin Jax 170
Curve = Griffin Jax 151
Changeup = Jorge Alcala 116
Knuckle Curve = Louie Varland* 115
*Don't have breakdowns between as starter and as reliever.

[Craig Arko]

I’m mildly surprised Ober’s changeup didn’t make the cut. But metrics are what metrics measure.