Vikings 2024 Season

[Cap'n Piranha]

17 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

Unlike you, I didn't cherry pick anything.  I simply added up their total points over the course of the last 14 quarters.  3 against GB, 23 against the Jets, 29 against the Lions, and 20 against the rams.  That's a total of 75 points.  Take those 75 points and divide by 14 quarters and it comes out to 5.35 points per quarter.  If they maintained that pace they'd be averaging 21.4 points per game.  Which is decidely above the bottom of the league.  Which is exactly what I said.

I'm sorry you literally didn't do the math for your position.  I did.  At this point, to be "easily bottom five in the league" they'd have to be sub 17 points per game.  No method of calculation will arrive at a number to support that conclusion.

What I just did was demonstrate exactly what multiple people are trying to tell you: you aren't making a good argument.  You're using half-baked calculations, broad generalizations, and cherry picked statistics to arrive at the conclusion you want rather than using the numbers to guide a conclusion.  You're not doing analysis, you're stumping.

You took what could have been a sustainable, reasonable point and dressed it in hyperbole and falsehoods to the point that it should be called out for what it is.  Schlock.

Holy crap are you dense.  We're talking about whether the offense (see, I can be condescending and bold words too) is performing.  How can you credit the offense with points that the defense scored?  Not points that were made easier by a short field, but actual defensive touchdowns.

Over the past 14 quarters, the offense has scored 3 against the Packers, 16 against the Jets (Van Ginkel pick six), 23 against the Lions (Pace fumble return TD with missed PAT), 20 against the Rams.  That's 62 points, which is 4.42 points/ quarter, or 17.7 a game, which would be 26th a game currently--seems pretty bottom of the league to me.

Kudos for doing your third grade math.  Your data analysis capabilities however...

My calculations are more accurate than yours, because unlike you, I'm not using irrelevant data (irrelevant data in, irrelevant conclusion out).  I'm making no generalizations; I'm saying I'm concerned about the offense based on it's struggles over the past 14 quarters, and I don't have full faith in KOC based on track record to solve that.  I also disagree that my stats are cherry picked, as I mentioned, it's a sample size comprising almost 20% of a full season, and a full 50% of the season that's been played.  Unless you think the most recent stats are somehow less reliable than not the most recent stats.  If you think taking any kind of subset of stats is somehow cherry-picking, I think Inigo Montoya has some advice for you.

It's ridiculous to think I want to arrive at the conclusion that the offense is struggling.  As a Vikings fan, I would love for the offense to score 50 a game--nothing would make me happier.  As a realist, I understand that the offense has not been right for quite some time now, and I'm simply using completely appropriate stats (PPG, controlling only for points the offense actually scored, not points the offense didn't score).  I'm sorry if your mental capacity to understand anything beyond surface-level analysis is lacking, or your feelings are hurt somehow, but none of what you're accusing me of is remotely true.

The sustainable reasonable point you think I was making is what you said in your post above, right?  Here's your quotation " "Man guys...I'm a little concerned that our offense has had some stretches where it really struggles.  Is that a red flag for the future".

You understand that is exactly what I'm saying right?  Our offense has had some stretches (the last 14 quarters, to be specific, where we've only scored 5 offensive TDs) where it has really struggled.  I'm concerned that KOC might not be able to turn that around.  I then presented stats around that, which somehow upset you.  Stop claiming you'd be ok with me doing something that is the mirror image of what I'm doing that is supposedly schlock.  Have at least an iota of integrity.

[Cap'n Piranha]

18 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

Dude, just stop. You pouted all through the Vikings pre-season thread, basically disappeared when they went 5-0, and now you're doing your chicken little thing again after they lost 2 games by 12 points.

Using examples to opine why I don't have much faith in the General Manager is not pouting.

I "disappeared" because I was travelling, then got sick, then my daughter was sick, then my wife was sick, and I had minimal time to spend on the board--sorry I'm not meeting your attendance requirements.  We'll see how the rest of the season plays out--I hope it's successful.  But anyone not concerned over what's happened to the offense over the last 3.5 games is either not paying attention, or is simply obtuse.

[TheLeviathan]

2 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

You understand that is exactly what I'm saying right?  

My number didn't cherry pick or flirt with counterfactuals. And still, after all the cherry picking, 26th still isn't "easily bottom five". 

You can't back up "easily bottom five".  You argued 8th in scoring was "barely top ten" to dismiss it.  Tried not to count field goals.  It's a fallacious argument, from the beginning.  You either can't make the point fairly or, for some bizarre reason, choose this unfair/embellished one.

If you have a good case to make....why not just make it without the hyperbole?  Or obviously narrowed criteria?

[Cap'n Piranha]

2 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

My number didn't cherry pick or flirt with counterfactuals. And still, after all the cherry picking, 26th still isn't "easily bottom five". 

You can't back up "easily bottom five".  You argued 8th in scoring was "barely top ten" to dismiss it.  Tried not to count field goals.  It's a fallacious argument, from the beginning.  You either can't make the point fairly or, for some bizarre reason, choose this unfair/embellished one.

If you have a good case to make....why not just make it without the hyperbole?  Or obviously narrowed criteria?

Nor did mine.  Mine was a simple calculation of how many points the offense has scored in the last 14 quarters.  Yours was not.  Yours was a calculation of how many points the team had scored.  Those are not the same thing.  If you can’t understand that NFL teams can score points without the offense being on the field, I suggest you find a different sport to follow, this one is clearly too complex for you.

In a discussion about the effectiveness of the offense, defensive points do not apply.  Excluding them is not cherry picking, even if you want to scream it into the void until you’re blue in the face.  I will retract the easily bottom 5 for this season, that was based on looking at last season.  So you’re right, they’re 26th, not 28th—clearly KOC’s offense has been the envy of the league the last 3.5 games.  Even if the definitive statement is (slightly) off, the gist is wholly accurate; since halftime at GB, the offense has produced like a bottom 10 unit.

I have no clue where you got the idea I’m not including field goals, outside of a statement of how many TDs the offense scored.  I never subtracted field goals from any of my points calculations, although you do insist defensive scores should be credited to the offense (even though the offense was not on the field), so I’m detecting quite a bit of projection on your part.  If you want to argue the offense that ranks 26th in PPG in the last 3.5 games and has only scored 5 touchdowns in that time is actually great because they’ve also had to settle for 9 field goals, that’s a tack you can take—seems far more bizarre than anything I’ve ever done in this thread.

The fact that you continue to blatantly refuse to see I’m making the exact case you encouraged me to make is at this point beyond comprehension to me.  Why is it so hard for you to just say, “my bad, didn’t see where you were going with this”?

[TheLeviathan]

19 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

The fact that you continue to blatantly refuse to see I’m making the exact case you encouraged me to make is at this point beyond comprehension to me.  Why is it so hard for you to just say, “my bad, didn’t see where you were going with this”?

I missed the "my bad, I overstated my case about where they would rank and was too dismissive of valid points on the state of the scoring offense in total"

Those arguments are what derailed any good faith consideration.  I do see where you're trying to go, I don't wish to engage with it if all arguments made are in bad faith.

[nicksaviking]

8 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Using examples to opine why I don't have much faith in the General Manager is not pouting.

I "disappeared" because I was travelling, then got sick, then my daughter was sick, then my wife was sick, and I had minimal time to spend on the board--sorry I'm not meeting your attendance requirements.  We'll see how the rest of the season plays out--I hope it's successful.  But anyone not concerned over what's happened to the offense over the last 3.5 games is either not paying attention, or is simply obtuse.

Yeah, some coincidence. The entire board was down on this team preseason, then they started off hot and when they lost two games you came back to pile on.

This team's QB is Sam Darnold. that was a league-wide joke until week 1, but NOW you talk like he was supposed to make this team a top 5 offense. Sorry, you need to face it (but won't) this team has over achieved. If you don't believe me, maybe you'll believe this guy:

On 3/13/2024 at 1:53 PM, Cap'n Piranha said:

It's very true that they could quite easily get rid of every FA they just signed.  My point wasn't they're now locked into a bunch of deals.  My point was that if you're going to rebuild, then just rebuild.  There should be no players on this team who don't project to still be on the team in 2026, because the idea is to find as many young, cost-controlled players as possible.  If we're truly rebuilding, the goal is to either be awful in 2024 and 2025, or if we're not awful, it's because we found enough quality young players that we're ahead of schedule.

I don't see the point of getting a top 10 defense that will help us win games if we don't have an offense that can score on playoff-caliber opponents.  If these new players make our defense better, and keep us from getting the draft ammo to rebuild, these deals were mistakes, since most/all of these players will be gone/part-time players in 2026.

Damn KOC, you were supposed to have this offense as a top end unit!!!!!!!

[Cap'n Piranha]

11 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

I missed the "my bad, I overstated my case about where they would rank and was too dismissive of valid points on the state of the scoring offense in total"

Those arguments are what derailed any good faith consideration.  I do see where you're trying to go, I don't wish to engage with it if all arguments made are in bad faith.

Check my last post, where I retracted my statement that was (just barely) inaccurate.  I’ve never been dismissive of valid points.  You however have been adamant about including invalid points.

You’ve never once approached any of this in good faith.  You’ve mocked me multiple times, accused me of doing things I didn’t do, and obstinately refused to concede a single point, simply ignoring objective evidence in order to blast the motives that you ascribe to me, despite their utter detachment from reality.

You continue to claim you don’t want to engage, and yet you’ve responded to every single one of my posts.  Be intellectually honest, at least once in this thread; you’re delighted to continue to sit on your self-made throne and declare who is and who isn’t posting responsibly.  Perhaps you’d like me to stop, so you can feel vindicated in getting the last word.  But if you actually don’t want to engage, you won’t.  Simple as that.

[Cap'n Piranha]

8 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Yeah, some coincidence. The entire board was down on this team preseason, then they started off hot and when they lost two games you came back to pile on.

This team's QB is Sam Darnold. that was a league-wide joke until week 1, but NOW you talk like he was supposed to make this team a top 5 offense. Sorry, you need to face it (but won't) this team has over achieved. If you don't believe me, maybe you'll believe this guy:

Damn KOC, you were supposed to have this offense as a top end unit!!!!!!!

Are you calling me a liar?  This is a shocking lack of empathy from a moderator, whose role is supposedly to maintain civility.  At minimum you could have just let this point go.  Alternatively, you could have done the decent thing, and said, “that sucks, hope everyone’s feeling better, would have been interesting to get your thoughts during that 5-0 start”.

I never said Darnold was going to make this offense a top 5 unit.  My offseason post that you brought up actually proves the consistency of my stance.  I didn’t have faith in KOC to coordinate a top flight offense, and didn’t understand why he and Kwesi wanted to be rid of Kirk if they wanted to compete, given how much worse the offense was last year, due at least in part to not having Kirk.

To start the year, the offense looked decent against NYG and SF (21 and 23 points), then phenomenal against HOU and in the first half against GB (34 and 28).  Since that time, something has changed; the offense that scored 62 in 90 minutes against HOU/GB has now scored 62 in 210 minutes against GB/NYJ/DET/LAR.  

As I’ve said through this entire thread, which everyone responding to me seems to be ignoring, I hope KOC can right the ship.  But there is more evidence in this season now to support the idea that KOC’s offense will score around 20-23 points a game—that is not top 10.  The whole point of my post you dredged up was to say I’d rather rebuild than watch the team go 10-7, maybe win a wild card game, and then be bounced by an actual championship level team.  There’s still time, quite a bit in fact, for this last patch to be proven a mid-season doldrum.  It better, because historically speaking, KOC has not been the best at closing out seasons strong.

[TheLeviathan]

31 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Check my last post, where I retracted my statement that was (just barely) inaccurate.  I’ve never been dismissive of valid points.  You however have been adamant about including invalid points.

You’ve never once approached any of this in good faith.  You’ve mocked me multiple times, accused me of doing things I didn’t do, and obstinately refused to concede a single point, simply ignoring objective evidence in order to blast the motives that you ascribe to me, despite their utter detachment from reality.

You continue to claim you don’t want to engage, and yet you’ve responded to every single one of my posts.  Be intellectually honest, at least once in this thread; you’re delighted to continue to sit on your self-made throne and declare who is and who isn’t posting responsibly.  Perhaps you’d like me to stop, so you can feel vindicated in getting the last word.  But if you actually don’t want to engage, you won’t.  Simple as that.

That was a retraction?  If you say so.

[Cap'n Piranha]

14 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

That was a retraction?  If you say so.

Noticed you engaged again 😉

I expressly said “I will retract”.  Go back and read the post if you don’t believe me.  If someone saying “I will retract” doesn’t count as a retraction, I don’t know what does.

[Cap'n Piranha]

27 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Noticed you engaged again 😉

I expressly said “I will retract”.  Go back and read the post if you don’t believe me.  If someone saying “I will retract” doesn’t count as a retraction, I don’t know what does.

And you’re still engaging, through a downvote.  You just can’t help yourself it seems.  I presume you have nothing to say in response—why not just admit yourself incapable of defending the ridiculous claim you advanced, that somehow I’m in the wrong for controlling the data to be applicable to the point I’m making?  Self accountability and personal growth is your friend, mon ami.

[Mike Sixel]

Long snapper needs surgery.....

[Mike Sixel]

Reichard to the IR....sigh.

[TheLeviathan]

15 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Reichard to the IR....sigh.

John Parker Romo.  Woof.

[Mike Sixel]

New long snapper signed.

Rumor has it they are done, no more trades.

[gunnarthor]

I thought this was a pretty good article on where we are at the halfway point. 

https://www.dailynorseman.com/2024/11/12/24293080/vikings-just-over-halfway-season-report

Basically, we're ok but we need to be able to make adjustments. Cashman is really vital to the defense. 

[nicksaviking]

2 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

I thought this was a pretty good article on where we are at the halfway point. 

https://www.dailynorseman.com/2024/11/12/24293080/vikings-just-over-halfway-season-report

Basically, we're ok but we need to be able to make adjustments. Cashman is really vital to the defense. 

Yeah, I thought Cashman was 'just a guy' when they signed him, and with the team easily able to cut ties after the season, I figured he'd be one and done. 

He's probably the best player on the D though.

[TheLeviathan]

11 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

I thought this was a pretty good article on where we are at the halfway point. 

https://www.dailynorseman.com/2024/11/12/24293080/vikings-just-over-halfway-season-report

Basically, we're ok but we need to be able to make adjustments. Cashman is really vital to the defense. 

Wow, awesome article.  Good stuff on offensive adjustments too.

I love KOC, but my number one complaint is that he gets too fixated sometimes.  Whether it be trying to get too creative in short yardage or pushing the ball downfield no matter what, I'd like to see him just be a little more flexible on his situational approach.  It's good to have an identity as a team and a play caller, but sometimes the situation dictates you dink and dunk your way to an easy win.  Or you just slam the big guys forward and get a yard rather than have.....*checks notes* Brandon Powell try to push the pile?

I think some of their numbers will improve just by virtue of easier competition.

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, TheLeviathan said:

Wow, awesome article.  Good stuff on offensive adjustments too.

I love KOC, but my number one complaint is that he gets too fixated sometimes.  Whether it be trying to get too creative in short yardage or pushing the ball downfield no matter what, I'd like to see him just be a little more flexible on his situational approach.  It's good to have an identity as a team and a play caller, but sometimes the situation dictates you dink and dunk your way to an easy win.  Or you just slam the big guys forward and get a yard rather than have.....*checks notes* Brandon Powell try to push the pile?

I think some of their numbers will improve just by virtue of easier competition.

Yeah, I hate the cutesy plays, they've been happening too often in big spots.

It also seems to me that when Darnold throws to Addision, he's missing him too often, and usually he's throwing too high. Jefferson *may* have come down with a couple of those, but all QBs know throwing too high is the best way to get picked off. I wonder if Darnold is in his own head thinking that going to Jefferson double teamed is better than going high too Addison.

Addison doesn't have any drops though this year. I might try him in the slot more running shorter underneath stuff and trying to get him matched on a LB. If Jefferson is getting double and triple teamed, put your second best option on the same side of the field running the shorter routes and finding the vacated open spaces.

[TheLeviathan]

22 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Yeah, I hate the cutesy plays, they've been happening too often in big spots.

It also seems to me that when Darnold throws to Addision, he's missing him too often, and usually he's throwing too high. Jefferson *may* have come down with a couple of those, but all QBs know throwing too high is the best way to get picked off. I wonder if Darnold is in his own head thinking that going to Jefferson double teamed is better than going high too Addison.

Addison doesn't have any drops though this year. I might try him in the slot more running shorter underneath stuff and trying to get him matched on a LB. If Jefferson is getting double and triple teamed, put your second best option on the same side of the field running the shorter routes and finding the vacated open spaces.

Last night I had KFAN on and there was a Vikings Xs and Os and KOC said (paraphrasing) "Sometimes you just need to make the simple, non flashy plays to keep chains moving and letting your defense and special teams win you the game"  With the idea being they lean heavier on the run.

Ok, that's fine.  I even sorta like hearing him say that.  But then why the BLEEP did you try to throw downfield on 3rd and 1 when you were already in field goal range?  Of course, Paul Allen was asking the questions, so genuine push back didn't happen, but I was screaming it at my streaming app.

[Mike Sixel]

Cutting CB Evans. Do they even have one signed for next year?

[nicksaviking]

31 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Cutting CB Evans. Do they even have one signed for next year?

They clearly can't draft and develop them, so I guess grabbing veterans for the spots is their only option anyway.

Only Ingram, Chandler, Nailor and Muse left from that 2022 draft and Ingram, Chandler and Muse are basically already out the door. Addison and Ward are the only two left from 2023. So one starter combined from those classes now and the only starter from 2024 is the kicker.

I'm not saying Adofo-Mensah has to go as there's more to being a GM than the draft, but they need to find a new outside voice to help, who even if they don't run the draft, they have significant input and sway. This isn't working.

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

They clearly can't draft and develop them, so I guess grabbing veterans for the spots is their only option anyway.

Only Ingram, Chandler, Nailor and Muse left from that 2022 draft and Ingram, Chandler and Muse are basically already out the door. Addison and Ward are the only two left from 2023. So one starter combined from those classes now and the only starter from 2024 is the kicker.

I'm not saying Adofo-Mensah has to go as there's more to being a GM than the draft, but they need to find a new outside voice to help, who even if they don't run the draft, they have significant input and sway. This isn't working.

I'm ready to fire him. Awful drafts. Truly. 

[nicksaviking]

19 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm ready to fire him. Awful drafts. Truly. 

Yeah felt dumb typing all that and then straddling the fence. 
 

Hard to see this team firing their GM if they pull off 10+ wins. Even if they should.

[Parfigliano]

36 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

They clearly can't draft and develop them, so I guess grabbing veterans for the spots is their only option anyway.

Only Ingram, Chandler, Nailor and Muse left from that 2022 draft and Ingram, Chandler and Muse are basically already out the door. Addison and Ward are the only two left from 2023. So one starter combined from those classes now and the only starter from 2024 is the kicker.

I'm not saying Adofo-Mensah has to go as there's more to being a GM than the draft, but they need to find a new outside voice to help, who even if they don't run the draft, they have significant input and sway. This isn't working.

I was saying last year Kwesi needs to go because too many draft misses.  Was not a popular opinion

 

[TheLeviathan]

The 2022 draft was abysmal.  I've liked the ones since better, even if they aren't great.

He's certainly done a nice job in other ways adding talent to the team.

[Mike Sixel]

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm ready to fire him. Awful drafts. Truly. 

This post will look stupid when they win at least one playoff game.... But imagine if they could draft at all....

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

The 2022 draft was abysmal.  I've liked the ones since better, even if they aren't great.

He's certainly done a nice job in other ways adding talent to the team.

Incomplete this year, but the Turner pick isn't looking good at all. Can't even get on the field much. 

[TheLeviathan]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Incomplete this year, but the Turner pick isn't looking good at all. Can't even get on the field much. 

Yup, not a great start there.  They need to draft better, but hard to argue with the results.

[nicksaviking]

The Patriots released KJ Osborne in a 'mutual decision'.

I'll guess he gets claimed as he's far from the worst WR available out there, but would the Vikings eye him for a reunion? 

He's better than Brandon Powell, however, Powell is the punt returner. Though he's not a terribly good one, the Vikings have the 2nd worst punt return average in the league.