Is this Joe Mauers best offensive year???

[greengoblinrulz]

Adrian Gonzalez

Paul Goldschmidt

Anthony Rizzo

Allen Craig

Joey Votto

Ryan Howard

Freddie Freeman

Adam LaRoche

Mitch Moreland

Albert Pujols

Prince Fielder

Carlos Santana

Chris Davis

Edwin Encarnacion

Mike Napoli

I said below average offensive first basemen (that is argueable for what you decipher that to be). So here are 15 that are above him IMO only IF he was a fulltime first baseman. Sure, some of these guys havent put up numbers over a long haul, but Joe's numbers this year are gonna be career highs (some including 09).

His greatest value is at catcher & always will be. First base is too difficult of a hitting position to put him at unless he hits for power/drives in runs(which arent his strong suits).

[launchingthrees]

Saying something doesn't make it so. What metrics have Mauer as an average offensive first basemen? I used career ops and woba to show he would be well above average at 1b and you're using what, # of doubles?

 

You're gonna have to do better than that to have any credibility given how blatently obvious it is that Mauer would be an above average at 1b based on every metric known to man.

 

I said earlier IF Joe hits like this year, his bat plays at 1B. In the past, it doesnt.

No arguement that he's not an HR hitter, but he's had only 1 year w/over 36 doubles & 2 over 31. Before this year, he wasnt an extra base hitter. This year he is. You cannot have a fulltime singles hitting 1B, even with the great OBP.

The other part is whomever is catching is essentially replacing the 1B. Ryan Doumits numbers wouldnt play at 1B either. Now you've taken a plus offensive position @ C (only one the club has) & eliminated it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Adrian Gonzalez

Paul Goldschmidt

Anthony Rizzo

Allen Craig

Joey Votto

Ryan Howard

Freddie Freeman

Adam LaRoche

Mitch Moreland

Albert Pujols

Prince Fielder

Carlos Santana

Chris Davis

Edwin Encarnacion

Mike Napoli

I said below average offensive first basemen (that is argueable for what you decipher that to be). So here are 15 that are above him IMO only IF he was a fulltime first baseman. Sure, some of these guys havent put up numbers over a long haul, but Joe's numbers this year are gonna be career highs (some including 09).

His greatest value is at catcher & always will be. First base is too difficult of a hitting position to put him at unless he hits for power/drives in runs(which arent his strong suits).

 

Joe Mauer OPS+: 148

 

Allen Craig: 120

Anthony Rizzo: 110

Ryan Howard (LOLZ): 113

Adam LaRoche: 114

Carlos Santana: 113

Mike Napoli: 114

 

In fact, Joe's OPS+ is higher than everyone on that list not named Joey, Chris, or Paul and he's only a couple of singles behind Joey and Paul. Basically, he's behind one guy who came out of nowhere and started playing out of his damned mind.

 

You might want to re-think that list.

 

Joe's value is highest at catcher. That is without a doubt. But just as John Olerud was an extremely good 1B without gobs of power, Joe could be one of the better first basemen in the league.

[Mike Sixel]

60-100 games at catcher, 60-100 games at 1B, 20-40 games at DH.....that's his future, isn't it?

 

And, who in the minors looks to be a 1B that will hit better than Mauer? And, as he ages, his knees will like catching less and less, and while you may not love his bat at 1B, you still want him in the lineup over most other choices. I'm not sure how this is even controversial.

[Brock Beauchamp]

And, who in the minors looks to be a 1B that will hit better than Mauer?

 

Sano and...

 

Sano?

 

Maybe Vargas. He probably won't be a better hitter but he'll be more in the traditional mold of a 1B.

[ThePuck]

Joe Mauer OPS+: 148

 

Allen Craig: 120

Anthony Rizzo: 110

Ryan Howard (LOLZ): 113

Adam LaRoche: 114

Carlos Santana: 113

Mike Napoli: 114

 

In fact, Joe's OPS+ is higher than everyone on that list not named Joey, Chris, or Paul and he's only a couple of singles behind Joey and Paul. Basically, he's behind one guy who came out of nowhere and started playing out of his damned mind.

 

You might want to re-think that list.

 

Joe's value is highest at catcher. That is without a doubt. But just as John Olerud was an extremely good 1B without gobs of power, Joe could be one of the better first basemen in the league.

 

but, but, but...1Bs hit HRs :-)

[ThePuck]

You cannot have a fulltime singles hitting 1B, even with the great OBP.

 

Rod Carew says Whassssup? :-)

[Mike Sixel]

Rod Carew says Whassssup? :-)

 

and you hear the same about 3B, Wade Boggs says hi....oh, and corner OFer....Tony Gwynn says hi.

[Brock Beauchamp]

but, but, but...1Bs hit HRs :-)

 

When I first saw that list, I was so hoping that Garrett Jones was on it just for hilarity's sake.

[Brock Beauchamp]

and you hear the same about 3B, Wade Boggs says hi....oh, and corner OFer....Tony Gwynn says hi.

 

I think the lesson we can learn from this is "power from a classic power position is nice but when you're talking about a guy with a .400+ OBP and multiple batting titles, power ain't necessarily... necessary?"

 

I need to work on that a bit.

[ThePuck]

and you hear the same about 3B, Wade Boggs says hi....oh, and corner OFer....Tony Gwynn says hi.

 

In the end, there's always exceptions to any rule. For the most part, I agree you usually want power from your corner IF and OFs, but special players like Mauer, Boggs, Gwynn and quite a few others can overcome that. That's why they're special.

 

In any event, Mauer isn't even a 1B, he may never end up being a full time 1B while under this contract, so while the conversation has been interesting, we aren't even to the point yet where it's an issue.

[Boone]

I don't believe his stats this year are sustainable. He has a .396 babip which is way above his career average of .348 and is even well above his career high of .378 (2009). When that starts to drop both his slugging and batting average will fall with it. How much they will fall is the real question....

 

My belief that Mauer's numbers are sustainable was based off of two facts:

1. Mauer is hitting a ton of line drives, so although his BABIP will fall, it should remain very high. Mauer's LD rate of 28.1% is well above his previous career high of 25% and career average of 23.4%. This means that his high BABIP isn't as lucky as it seems.

2. Mauer's strikeouts are way down in June, meaning that even if his BABIP falls, his batting average should stay high because he is putting so many more balls in play. In May, Mauer struck out in 29.5% of his ABs but he has struck out in just 11.7% of his ABs so far in June (career rate = 12.7%).

[Oxtung]

My belief that Mauer's numbers are sustainable was based off of two facts:

1. Mauer is hitting a ton of line drives, so although his BABIP will fall, it should remain very high. Mauer's LD rate of 28.1% is well above his previous career high of 25% and career average of 23.4%. This means that his high BABIP isn't as lucky as it seems.

2. Mauer's strikeouts are way down in June, meaning that even if his BABIP falls, his batting average should stay high because he is putting so many more balls in play. In May, Mauer struck out in 29.5% of his ABs but he has struck out in just 11.7% of his ABs so far in June (career rate = 12.7%).

 

IIRC only one person in the history of the game has had a full season babip approaching .400. Joe's won't be there by the end of the season. It is going to fall. When it does all his offensive rate stats will fall as well. So the question becomes where does his babip end at? That will determine where all his offensive stats end at.

[Boone]

IIRC only one person in the history of the game has had a full season babip approaching .400. Joe's won't be there by the end of the season. It is going to fall. When it does all his offensive rate stats will fall as well. So the question becomes where does his babip end at? That will determine where all his offensive stats end at.

 

I think you missed #2. If Mauer continues to strikeout at his career rate, as opposed the career high rate of the first 2 months, he won't need a .400 BABIP to maintain numbers similar to what he is currently posting. I do think, however, that it is not out of the question that Mauer posts a BABIP close to his career high due to his LD rate.

[Boone]

And by the way, 17 players over the past 6 seasons have had a BABIP over .380 including 6 over .390. Also, anyone who hit over .400 for a season must have had a BABIP over .400

[Oxtung]

I think you missed #2. If Mauer continues to strikeout at his career rate, as opposed the career high rate of the first 2 months, he won't need a .400 BABIP to maintain numbers similar to what he is currently posting. I do think, however, that it is not out of the question that Mauer posts a BABIP close to his career high due to his LD rate.

 

And by the way, 17 players over the past 6 seasons have had a BABIP over .380 including 6 over .390. Also, anyone who hit over .400 for a season must have had a BABIP over .400

 

 

I understand that if Mauer strikes out less then his stats can remain similar even if his babip drops. I posted that exact thing recently, though in a different thread.

 

I was definitely incorrect about the number of hitters with an extremely high babip. However, it still is very rare to approach .400. Mauer's is going to fall and when it does it will affect his rate stats. How much it affects those stats will depend on how far his babip falls. So while striking out can minimize the drop off of rate stats caused by the lowering of his babip it remains to be seen if the fewer strike outs can completely offset the babip fall.

 

Really it comes down to two questions, which strikeout rate is the "real Mauer" this year, and second, how far does his babip fall.

 

Personally I don't believe his rate stats are sustainable. I think that his babip fall will be not be completely countered by a reduction in his strike out rates.

[diehardtwinsfan]

And by the way, 17 players over the past 6 seasons have had a BABIP over .380 including 6 over .390. Also, anyone who hit over .400 for a season must have had a BABIP over .400

 

BABIP is kind of weird because it excludes home runs and strike outs. This stems from the idea that these values are under a pitchers control and nothing else is. I'm not quite sure it tells the whole story.

[diehardtwinsfan]

A couple of things to comment on:

 

1) To answer the thread title question. Is this his best year? No. Apparently we've forgotten about 2009 where he hit nearly 30 home runs, won a batting title, and MVP, and for a while was flirting with a .400 BA.

 

2) As others have said, his value is at catcher. He would be an above average 1B no doubt, but if he had seasons like this from here on out, he wouldn't be worth 23M. He's worth 23M if he finishes that contract at C and continues to have years like this or perhaps another 2009.

 

3) Mauer is going to need some games at DH/1B to save some wear on those knees. I do get that. The trick for Gardy is going to be to make sure he's not benching someone else as deserving. Right now, that's not really an issue, but it could be when Sano and company are up, who knows.

 

4) At this point, Mauer is a first ballot hall of famer. I really don't understand why some people don't like him. He isn't perfect, no one is, but minus Pujols he might be the best pure hitter of our generation.