Trevor Larnach Has Quietly Become a Cutter Killer

[Cody Christie]

Trevor Larnach has slid into the top of the Twins’ batting order and developed into an impact bat. The secret to his success might be tied to his performance against one pitch.

Image courtesy of Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

Amid the Minnesota Twins' 2024 season, Trevor Larnach has emerged as a vital piece of their offensive puzzle. Once considered a prospect with potential, Larnach has taken significant steps forward this year, particularly in his ability to handle specific pitches and improve his plate discipline. These developments have made him not just a reliable presence in the lineup but also a vital part of the Twins' long-term plans.

Mastering the Cutter
One of the most notable improvements in Larnach's game has been his ability to crush cutters. Pitchers have increasingly relied on cutters to disrupt hitters' timing, and Larnach has made them pay. His approach against cutters has been aggressive yet disciplined, showcasing his ability to recognize and attack these pitches early in the count. In 2022, Larnach posted a .250 BA, .333 SLG, and -2 Run Value when facing cutters. Over the last two seasons, he has improved significantly in his ability to recognize cutters to the point where he has a .879 SLG, 60% Hard Hit %, and a +7 Run Value versus that pitch in 2024. 

This newfound skill has added another dimension to Larnach’s offensive game. In previous seasons, he struggled against pitches that bore in on his hands, often resulting in weak contact or strikeouts. However, this season has seen a marked change. Larnach's stance adjustment and refined swing path have allowed him to get his hands inside the ball, driving cutters into gaps or over the fence with regularity. This adjustment has increased his power numbers and made him a more consistent hitter, providing the Twins with much-needed pop from the left side of the plate.

Improved Plate Discipline
Beyond his prowess against cutters, Larnach's improved plate discipline has been another critical factor in his breakout. In past seasons, he chased off-speed pitches out of the zone, particularly breaking balls down and away. This led to a high strikeout rate and limited his ability to get on base. However, in 2024, Larnach has made significant strides in laying off these pitches, resulting in a more balanced and patient approach. His strikeout rate has dropped from 34.0% in 2023 to 21.9% this season. 

The data backs up his improvement: his chase rate on off-speed pitches has dropped significantly. Last season, he posted a Whiff% above 47.1% against breaking and offspeed pitches. In 2024, he has improved significantly against breaking pitches with a 14.3% drop in his Whiff% (35.7%). Larnach's ability to differentiate between pitches he can drive and those he should let go has not only improved his on-base percentage but also forced pitchers to approach him more carefully. His disciplined eye has put him in more favorable counts, allowing him to capitalize on mistakes and maintain a consistent level of production.

A Cornerstone for the Future
Larnach's development has been a welcome sight for the Twins, who have been seeking to solidify their outfield for the long term. With his ability to play both corner outfield spots and his burgeoning offensive profile, Larnach is positioning himself as an above-average regular for the Twins. His left-handed power complements a lineup that features a mix of veteran hitters and young talent, making him a versatile and valuable asset.

Moreover, Larnach's improvements align with the Twins' organizational philosophy of patience at the plate and power-hitting. His ability to hit for both average and power, combined with his defensive capabilities, makes him a well-rounded player who can contribute in multiple facets of the game. Larnach’s growth provides a blueprint for developing the Twins' young talent.

Larnach's breakout season has been a revelation for the Twins. His dominance against cutters and improved discipline against off-speed pitches have transformed him into a formidable hitter and a vital part of the Twins' offense. As he continues to grow and adapt, Larnach is poised to be a central figure in the Twins' lineup for years to come, embodying the team's commitment to developing homegrown talent and building a competitive future.

Are Larnach’s improvements sustainable? Can he continue to make adjustments at the big-league level? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

 

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[LambchoP]

Larnach is a man on a mission. He looks like he wants to lock down the starting left field job for next year. I think if he is a full-time player next year and stays healthy, a .250/25 HR season would not be out of reach. Combine that with Wallner s power in right field and an occasional appearance from Buxton and we've got a decent hitting outfield. Both Larnach and Wallner have kept our lineup afloat recently with Correa and Buxton giving up on the year and Lewis and Miranda slumping hard 

[Karbo]

Even when he was struggling he was able to drive in runs. I would rather see him in the 5 or 6 hole to get more chances to drive in runs.

[Dman]

I've always been a big Larnach fan, but after last year he had me wondering if he was going to make it.  Really happy to see the improvements he has made pay off and it feels like he has been cheated on some hard contact for outs as well.  The defense will never be elite, but good enough for left IMO.  The bat is a difference maker though and should only get better as he gains confidence in his approach.

[CRF]

I think we have to put Larnach and Wallner in the lineup every game, or as often as possible. Leave them in there against lefties too. It's time to see if they can hold down the LF and RF jobs and produce...and it's time to let Kepler go elsewhere. 

[jimbo92107]

I've been relatively loyal to Trevor Larnach, giving up on him only about four times. Kind of the same deal with Matt Wallner, tho I'm still waiting for him to start gunning runners down trying to take that extra base. Where's that gun, Matt?

Comes down to patience, I guess. A word that is alien to my fickle fan ears...

[Jocko87]

Slight cause for concern is that his walk rate has declined significantly as well.  8.8% is the lowest of his career.  Coincidentally, his ground ball rate is up 10% while his fly ball rate is down 10%.  Line drive is about the same.  That would suggest there is a bit more work to do on pitch selection, maybe jumping on something earlier in the count to elevate.

He's hitting it harder but I would think he needs one more step forward to fully develop into the slot in the order he has been filling.  The team sees it coming to be hitting him in the two hole and I certainly have appreciated the high quality at bats he has been having.  He's become an above average ML hitter with just the strikeout improvement, but room to get better is exciting.