Astros (Dublin) v Twins (López); 7/5/24 @ 7:10pm CT

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

No quit in this team. But for the love of God, fix the bullpen.

[akmanak]

If they want to make a push into the playoffs they have to strengthen the bullpen. 

[USAFChief]

7 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

I don’t think we’re yelling at each other, so thanks for respectful discussion. I’ll continue. 

Apologies in advance. This got WAAAAAY longer than I’d planned.

I’ll be curious to see what the win expectancy was entering the eighth (EDIT to add — it was down to 13 percent, which supports some of my comments below.). I’m sure it’s available mid game, though I don’t know where to look. It would also be interesting to look at it over time and see if there is indeed a general number that seems to be the tipping point of when he makes someone the sacrificial lamb. Even with that number, however, I’m sure there are nuances. For example, in tonight’s game would he have been more likely to go to No. 7 or even No. 6 if Pressly and Hader weren’t available and they would have been going against the Astros Nos. 3 and 4, etc.?

I’m a curious guy by nature and tend to be pretty analytical, so I really would find it fun to be a fly on the wall as those conversations are happening, both with his coaches mid game and more importantly, with their analytics and front office folks in the offseason and pregame, which is where they develop the overarching principles they will abide by in game management. 

Tonight, for example, I’m trying to put myself in Rocco’s head on the decisions about Winder, both to use him at all and then to use him for a second. Here’s what I imagine: 

• I got hurt by Lopez only going five, so I have to get four innings from the pen. Lopez had struggled through five, but I’d really like to get another inning from him. Unfortunately, single-single-single loads the bases. 
• I go to Alcala to hopefully minimize the damage and try to get out of it. Unfortunately, he allows two guys to score, so I’m in position of using my bullpen from behind, rather than tied or even ahead if my offense scores in the sixth. He also threw 24 pitches, so it’s not realistic to consider him for another inning. 
• I don’t want to use Jax and Duran until the eighth and nine, and preferably only with a lead. At worst, with a tie.
• Similarly, I’d rather not use Stewart unless we’re in a spot with a higher likelihood of winning.
• I’d rather not use Staumont because of the rest factor (which I’ll explain later).
• So unless we score some runs, that leaves me with Winder, Funderburke and Thielbar to get through the remaining three innings. The choice is either to use them for one inning each or to use one of them for two innings. If the former, I’m ensuring myself of my three lowest-level guys having each thrown an inning going into tomorrow. If the latter, I need to get two innings out of one of them (or a combination of 1.2 and 1.1, but I prefer fresh innings for guys).
• I (IT speaking) think I agree with the general principle of not using all three and trying to get two innings out of one of them. Since Winder is going to be down by Tuesday anyway, it makes sense to try squeezing two innings out of him. (And since they did squeeze a second inning he threw 43 pitches, he’s realistically shot for Saturday, Sunday and probably even Monday, so I wonder if he actually gets sent down tomorrow for a fresh body that will in turn be sent down when Paddack comes back Tuesday. But I digress.)
• So Winder gets the seventh. Two whiffs, followed by a single that’s listed as to Winder. I wasn’t following closely at that point — was he actually close to getting out with a 1-2-3? Unfortunately, the single happens, as does a 2B and a HBP before a ground ball. 
• Heading to the eighth, again down two, whatever my (Rocco speaking again) win percentage entering the seventh, it’s not even lower. (EDIT to add: It was down to 13 percent.) I still don’t want to use Duran, Jax, Stewart and Staumont for the reasons listed above and Staumont for the reason described below. Thus my choices are another inning for Winder or two innings from either Funderburke or Thielbar. I wonder if my thought process at that point is, “I’m not sure I really trust either of the latter for two innings, and I don’t want to risk needing to use them both. I know I’m going to be sending Winder down. He’s already thrown 21 pitches, so I don’t have him for tomorrow and maybe not Sunday, but if I go ahead and use him a second inning, I can send him down tomorrow and have a fresh body. Besides, he looked good on the first several hitters in the seventh, so maybe he can pull it together.” 
• Unfortunately the eighth didn’t start well, Whatever the win percentage was (13 percent), it went down after hitting Altuve (to 11.2). And even further after Bergman singles (to 8.7). Now what? The likelihood of either Thielbar or Funderburke bailing me out with no runs is slim, and even if they do, I’ve needed to use that guy for a full inning, and I still have to cover the ninth.
• Realistically, by this point, Rocco has now committed to Winder being out there for a while. Best case scenario, he gets out with maybe only one run and we’ve still got six outs to score, though now we have to get three runs to tie. Unfortunately, worst case happens, with a little help from Margot, though that only cost the Twins one run. Even without the error, it still would have been 9-5.
• Instead it was 10-5 and the Twins didn’t score in the bottom of the eighth. So now it gets turned over to Funderburke or Thielbar for the ninth. Unfortunately, more worst case scenario happens. 

So… I don’t know if I would have done it this way (IT speaking again), but there is a logic behind it that I can understand.

 

On Staumont, I’ve been kinda in and out on Game Threads recently, but there have been a couple people clamoring loudly for him. Have you been one of those? I’m actually intrigued by him as well. I had moderately high hopes with the signing, so I was bummed that he got hurt. I do wonder if the caution they’ve shown with him the last two weeks is related to his coming back from injury. His last two outings have come on a whopping six days rest each, but that was on the heels of a stretch of going six games in 12 days, which is pretty intense, particularly when you consider that in three of those he actually went more than an inning. So I wonder if they are going with some pretty extended rest times if possible in response to some initial signs of overuse and in lieu of an IL stint. He also did pitch on Wednesday, though it was only 13 pitches. He probably could have pitched tonight in an emergency. It will be interesting to see their willingness the next couple days if the situation calls for it. At the least, he seems like he’s climbed to at least No. 5 in the pecking order, maybe even ahead of Alcala to No. 4.

Stewart?

 

[IndianaTwin]

58 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Stewart?

 

Brain cramp while typing late at night. The post I was responding to referenced Stewart and I used that instead of Okert. 

It doesn’t really change the overall thought process I walked through, however, since I don’t think he’d want to use his highest-level lefty in the situations I was describing.

[Squirrel]

16 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Vasquez does not have to play every other game.  He does though and thats a big problem.

Eh, I don’t think it’s that big a problem. I’m fine sacrificing offense at the catcher position. There are worse areas to address, imo. 

[sampleSizeOfOne]

On 7/5/2024 at 10:58 PM, Parfigliano said:

An A$$ kicking

I missed an opportunity for a movie reference:

"I'd characterize it more as a paddling."

 

Oh well. Live and learn.