2024 MLB Draft Preview: First Basemen

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Our 2024 MLB draft coverage continues to progress through its positional previews. Next up are first basemen. The results haven’t exactly been pretty for first basemen drafted in the Top 10 over recent years; yet we’re likely to hear two names called in that range again this July.

Players who are drafted as first basemen already find themselves at the bottom of the defensive spectrum. Due to that, there's a heavier burden on the bat for them than for most draftees. As a matter of fact, it’s not completely uncommon for teams to draft (and announce) these players at a different position, giving them an opportunity to play third base or in an outfield corner before eventually re-finding their way to first base. The Detroit Tigers famously did that four years ago with first overall pick Spencer Torkelson, but as Torkelson illustrates, calling a duck a turkey doesn't change its feathers.

We’re excited to ratchet up 2024 MLB Draft content in the coming weeks. We’ll start with a series of articles detailing each positional demographic. These pieces aren’t meant to be an exhaustive list, rather, an overview of the caliber of talent at the position (or, in this case, region).. For each player, we'll run down some basic information, in addition to some strengths and weaknesses. You’ll also find their current position on the Consensus MLB Draft Board in parentheses next to their name. 

The first-base group is headlined by two players destined to go in the Top 10, while many others will have to wait until Day 2 or later.

Jac Caglianone, L/L 1B, Florida (3)
Caglianone is one of the most famous draft-eligible prospects in 2024, off the back of an incredible season as a two-way player at Florida wherein he slugged 33 home runs and led the Gators to the National Championship Series, losing to the eventual champion LSU Tigers.

While his team is still playing in Omaha (though facing elimination), “Cags” has put up crazy numbers. He’s batting .414 with an on-base average of .536. For comparison's sake, Caglianone only reached base 39% of the time as a sophomore. He followed up his 33 home runs last year with 33 more this year (in eight fewer games), and has only struck out 25 times (while walking 53 times). He’s as impressive as it gets as a hitter, which is where most teams prefer him as a pro.

If the draft revolved around pure talent, Caglianone would rank close to the top of the pile. On the mound, his fastball regularly grabs 99 mph and has reportedly been as high as 101 mph. He primarily pairs it with a good bullet slider. Cags has a changeup that has good fade but lags behind the other pitches, in addition to an emerging cutter. Control and command was an issue for his entire repertoire in 2023, and he entered 2024 with a more efficient delivery. As purely a pitching prospect, the upside is tempered by reliever risk due to command uncertainty and the reliability of his secondary pitches.

In 72 2/3 innings in 2024, Caglianone struck out 82, but walked 48. He’s electric, and would absolutely be a must-watch as a  “position player pitching,” but he's probably not an MLB pitcher.

Defensively, it might be a first base-only profile which lowers the ceiling and the intrigue a bit. The 90th percentile of where Caglianone could end up as a pitcher and a hitter are incredibly intriguing. Even at the 50th percentile, though, he has power enough to separate himself from guys like Torkelson.

Nick Kurtz, L/L 1B, Wake Forest (8)
Kurtz is an imposing, physical first baseman, at 6-foot-5 and 230 pounds, and has occupied space at the top of most 2024 draft boards since the beginning of the process.

Originally recruited as a pitcher, Kurtz might have the best hit/power combo in the entire class. He's been lighting it up since his sophomore season, combining for 37 home runs for the Demon Deacons across the 2022-2023 seasons. His power numbers dipped in 2024. He only hit 22, but he also missed some time with a shoulder injury that may have sapped some power.

Kurtz starts with a chest-high handset, raising them to his shoulder before a leg kick in his load gets his swing going. It's monster bat speed, which (combined with excellent barrel control and good swing decisions) makes for an incredibly well-rounded offensive profile.
Kurtz's profile is further raised by above-average bat-to-ball skills and little trouble based on matchups (specific pitches or pitcher handedness).

Defensively, he's excellent, with at least an average arm. The many strengths of the offensive profile ameliorate the lack of defensive positional value. Kurtz moves well, but doesn't have much in the way of speed, so there’s no hope that he could ever play anywhere but first base.

Overall, it's one of the best offensive profiles in the class, a potential middle-of-the-order monster bat that provides average, power, and on-base skills, though he failed to replicate the production of his sophomore season.

lake Burke, L/L 1B, Tennessee (53)
There are plenty of college power bats in the 2024 draft class. In terms of bat speed, gaudy exit velocities, and huge power, Blake Burke is up there with the best of them. He's put up very impressive numbers for the best offense in America, as evidenced by his .380/.453/.711 slash line. He drew 34 walks, compared to 41 strikeouts.

Burke is a left-handed hitter with an uppercut swing designed to lift the ball. It's definitely a power-over-hit profile, but Burke has made some strides in polishing his overall offensive profile.

Defensively, it's a first base-only profile, but Burke has a good glove and profiles to be above-average defensively.

Burke will have to mash consistently to provide good value to a drafting organization, but he offers an interesting alternative to other power (with limited defensive value) profiles who will go much higher in the draft.

Cole Mathis, R/R 1B, College of Charleston (88)
Mathis, who has become an extremely intriguing prospect, plays for a smaller school, but has forced himself into the Day One conversation through a combination of outstanding batted-ball metrics in 2023 and an otherworldly Cape performance in 2023.

He smacked 11 home runs in his summer stint, in addition to posting consistently gaudy exit velocities in his 2023 season, up there with some of the best in the nation. There's plenty to like about his approach and swing, as he walks more than he strikes out, leading to a strong on-base platform. As you might expect, Mathis has excellent bat speed and punishes pitches in the zone consistently.

In his final year at CoC, Mathis hit .335/.472/.650, with 14 home runs, 14 stolen bases, 46 walks and 32 strikeouts. He has a cannon arm but not the best defensive actions, and may end up limited in his defensive value. He should get a crack at third base as a pro, but if he shifts to first, the bat will have to continue to mash to accrue value. He'd previously been a two-way player up to 97 mph on the bump, but due to some elbow issues, he focused on hitting in 2024. There may be enough intrigue that a team could look at him on the mound.

Myles Bailey, L/R 1B, Lincoln (FL) High School (212)
Bailey offers a different profile than the other players already mentioned on this list for a couple of different reasons.

First, Bailey is a prep player committed to Florida State University. Almost all prep players drafted on Day One sign. Most players drafted on Day Two sign, but many prep players fall out of Day Two due to their college commitment and price tag. Bailey could very easily be one of those prospects that falls to the third day and happily goes to campus. He’ll also be 19 on draft day and, thus, would be eligible for the 2026 draft.

Secondly, Bailey “projects” as a first baseman, but will get plenty of opportunities to play elsewhere. Make no mistake, his value is in his bat - and most specifically his raw power - but he’s got a good enough arm to provide hope that he could stay in the dirt (at third base) and enough athleticism to give the outfield a shot.

Honorable Mentions: Jared Jones, R/R 1B, LSU (194), Tomas Valincius, L/L 1B/LHP, Baylor (IL) High School (222), Hunter Hines, L/R 1B, Mississippi State (235), Jacob Walsh, L/L 1B, Oregon (238).

Who excites you from the first basemen class in 2024? Who are you higher on than other prospects? Jump into the draft conversation in the comments below.

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Find more draft coverage here:

2024 MLB Draft Position Previews: Second Basemen

2024 MLB Draft Position Previews: Midwest Highlights

2024 MLB Draft Position Previews: Third Basemen

2024 MLB Draft Position Previews: Shortstops

2024 MLB Draft Position Previews: Catcher

Mock Drafts!

Mock Draft v. 1.0 (Nygaard Edition): An Unusual Target

Mock Draft v.2.0 (Cameron Edition): Twins Lean into Prep Class

View full article

[Dman]

We are not going to have a chance at the first two players. I had Mathis on my list as a second round pick. I can't see him lasting beyond that although it is a 1st base profile so maybe he goes third round.  At any rate he has lot's of traits I like and that the Twins like so depending on who is left I could see the Twins taking him.

Burke is interesting,.  I have to believe he fits well with what the Twins seem to like in hitters. I don't love power over hit players, but if he can control the strike zone he looks like an awesome get in the second or third round.

I know Jared Thomas is 1B\OF, but I love the athleticism he would bring to first base and he could also play in the outfield if needed.  Probably gone before pick 60 and likely too early to grab at 33, but I would pick him over the other two if he was still there. He doesn't have the power of the other two guys mentioned in that range, but his hit tool is rated higher and he runs better than both of them.  I also think he could tap into more power.

FWIW I don't look much past the top 50 maybe top 100 when looking at these guys so don't know much about the other players mentioned.

[roger]

Thanks Jeremy, your work regarding the draft is appreciated.

As for specifics, I will wait until the draft and be surprised who the Twins take.  Hopefully, this year will yield a couple future Hall of Famers.  I can dream, can't i?

[jishfish]

23 hours ago, Dman said:

We are not going to have a chance at the first two players. I had Mathis on my list as a second round pick. I can't see him lasting beyond that although it is a 1st base profile so maybe he goes third round.  At any rate he has lot's of traits I like and that the Twins like so depending on who is left I could see the Twins taking him.

Burke is interesting,.  I have to believe he fits well with what the Twins seem to like in hitters. I don't love power over hit players, but if he can control the strike zone he looks like an awesome get in the second or third round.

I know Jared Thomas is 1B\OF, but I love the athleticism he would bring to first base and he could also play in the outfield if needed.  Probably gone before pick 60 and likely too early to grab at 33, but I would pick him over the other two if he was still there. He doesn't have the power of the other two guys mentioned in that range, but his hit tool is rated higher and he runs better than both of them.  I also think he could tap into more power.

FWIW I don't look much past the top 50 maybe top 100 when looking at these guys so don't know much about the other players mentioned.

Agreed with you on your Jared Thomas point. I would also love to get him at 60, but wouldn't hate him if we could get him under-slot at 21 and then use our savings at 33/60. The athleticism to handle CF is intriguing, along with what sounds like really strong defense at 1B. I'm pretty opposed to going 1B-only profile in the top 100ish picks, but if it's someone who can contribute defensively, possibly at multiple positions, you have my interest.

[jkcarew]

Not a fan at all of drafting first-basemen in the first couple of rounds. If they’ve been forced to 1B as amateurs…that pretty much leaves DH and 1B as MLB options…and the hitting bar to move the MLB needle at those positions is extremely high.

If you think he’s a truly rare amateur talent with the bat in his hands…(or if they happen to be playing 1B for some reason other than positional inflexibility)…there will be some exceptions. I don’t really see that with this group.