Another Tremendous Start from Chris Paddack, as Back of Twins Rotation Hangs Tough

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins needed to supplement the top half of their starting rotation this winter. They didn't do so with an external addition, but Chris Paddack has stepped forward and been that guy so far in 2024.

 

Image courtesy of © Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

Losing Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda was always part of the plan. The Twins would probably not have paid the going rate for the services of those aging arms, even in a normal offseason that included a more robust budget. Ideally, they might have replaced Gray with a similarly accomplished (but younger and/or cheaper) arm, but none of their efforts in that direction bore fruit. Entering spring training, the back end of the rotation looked shaky.

Louie Varland is already back in St. Paul, but fourth starter Chris Paddack has been everything the Twins have needed and then some. Though he made a late-season cameo in the bullpen for the 2023 division champions, Paddack is only now getting a chance to truly pay off the investment the Twins made when they dealt Taylor Rogers for him in April 2022. Paddack's elbow blew out (for the second time in his career) early that season, denying him the chance to make good for his new team until now.

Early on this season, it’s hard not to be encouraged by the results. Nine starts into the year, Paddack has a 4.47 ERA that includes some quality underlying statistics. His 47 strikeouts and 10 walks across 50 1/3 innings are impressive, even before adjusting for the fact that he's coming off a career-threatening surgery.

On a game-by-game basis, it’s also hard not to be encouraged by what Paddack has done for the Twins. He was blown up by both the Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees, but those are two of the fiercest offenses in baseball. Beyond that, he has multiple 10-strikeout performances, and went a career-high eight innings on Sunday against the Guardians.

While Paddack isn’t sitting at the 95-mph velocity he brought out of the Twins bullpen last year, his 93.8 mph average velocity is faster than he sat in 2022, and he's shown the ability to reach back for a couple extra ticks in high-pressure situations. His whiff rate is solid, and he’s generating plenty of chases, too. What Minnesota is having Paddack do has been working.

Expectations had to be high for Paddack coming into this season, given the way the team cleared space for him and denied itself a safety net. The question (one that remains unanswered, or only incompletely answered) is just how durable he can be. His rookie total of 140 innings pitched in 2019 still stands as a career high, and following elbow surgery, we can assume he'll be limited in certain ways as the team tries to keep him healthy beyond that number this year.

The best way for Paddack to continue on his run is by being economical. Working against the Guardians on Sunday, he flew through innings while keeping his pitch count well within manageable thresholds. Limiting traffic on the bases and stressful situations in which he does try to throw 96 or 97 will be important.

Pitching hasn’t been the problem it could have becomne this year, and a good reason for that is that Paddack has stepped up and done his job. The Twins have to score runs more consistently, or it won't matter, but they've cobbled together another good rotation, and Paddack remains an integral part of the plan.

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[Doctor Gast]

Paddack has come through for us. He has been very efficient, therefore giving us much-needed innings. My main concern is him overdoing it & getting burnt out early or injured.

[Doctor Wu]

I agree with both posts above; Paddack has been as good as I hoped thus far. Sure, a few rough starts, but overall he is pitching deep into games, striking out a lot of batters and not walking many. A good recipe for success. But ... due to his past injury issues and coming back from TJ surgery, what sort of innings limit will he have this season? As noted earlier, he is pitching deeper into games already, so I wonder what the plan is for later in the season.

[KBJ1]

Paddock is one of the few who has stepped up.

The bullpen was supposed to be a strength, but injuries have imploded it.

How did Imanaga get passed on by everybody? 4 yrs 53M is an absolute steal.

The ownerships short sightedness on SP and a LF power hitter will continue to diminish the value of their brand.

Meanwhile Eddie Rosario was available for a minor league contract?? He may not be lighting the world on fire yet, but his 6HR and better defense than the current -6 we have in LF would have helped a lot!

[bean5302]

I'm okay on Paddack.

4.47 ERA, 4.00 FIP, 3.75 xFIP.
He's got 3 quality starts (which were all excellent) in 9 games, and over 50% of his starts have FIPs north of 5.00.

Really nice to see that 8 inning performance, but I'm not staking much on him. If he remains healthy, he should be an adequate mid/back end starter.