Duran, starter?

[Cap'n Piranha]

On 4/18/2024 at 5:04 AM, TwinsDr2021 said:

If the goal is drive more fans away from the game, this would be a wonderful idea. If you have guys that are good enough to pitch 6 to 7 innings fairly consistently and you intentionally cap them at 4 innings a time, doesn't seem like a great idea IMO. Imagine paying a Lopez 21 million next year to start 40 games go 160 innings and be like 0 - 13. Can't imagine he would be happy and I can't imagine and decent minor league pitching prospect would be too thrilled to be in that type of organization. But hey ideas like this that reduces player salaries might get you a job for the Twins.

You're not capping them at 4 IP/start, but more like 75 pitches.  The hope is to get 5-6 IP, but plan for 4 as the bare minimum goal.  The whole idea is that you actually pitch your best pitchers MORE; Lopez pitches 40 times a year instead of 30-32, and your 5th starter is actually in the bullpen.  If this strategy makes the team better, I hope the pitchers would be on board with the team winning (especially if they're getting $21M a year).  When it comes to payroll, this might actually increase it, as you now need 8 guys capable of going up to 3 innings every time; while there's more of those than there are guys capable of going 6 every time, there's a lot fewer than those capable of 1.  True, you might not pay any one guy $20M plus anymore, but the Twins have never done that for anyone not named Pablo Lopez.  But if you're paying 8 guys $6M-$8M, pitcher payroll will not be nothing.

[TwinsDr2021]

7 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

You're not capping them at 4 IP/start, but more like 75 pitches.  The hope is to get 5-6 IP, but plan for 4 as the bare minimum goal.  The whole idea is that you actually pitch your best pitchers MORE; Lopez pitches 40 times a year instead of 30-32, and your 5th starter is actually in the bullpen.  If this strategy makes the team better, I hope the pitchers would be on board with the team winning (especially if they're getting $21M a year).  When it comes to payroll, this might actually increase it, as you now need 8 guys capable of going up to 3 innings every time; while there's more of those than there are guys capable of going 6 every time, there's a lot fewer than those capable of 1.  True, you might not pay any one guy $20M plus anymore, but the Twins have never done that for anyone not named Pablo Lopez.  But if you're paying 8 guys $6M-$8M, pitcher payroll will not be nothing.

That is pie in the sky optimism that starters would even occasionally get though 6 or 7 with 75 pitches or less, let alone Consistently, pitches can't do that now with a higher upper limit on pitches.

Ryan - 5.1 (93), 6 (96), 6 (90), 5.1 (81) - So probably two starts are 5 innings and 2 less

Lopez - 6 (87), 4 (98), 5.2 (95), 7 (84). SO 1 5 inning start, 1 between 5 - 6) two less than 4,

Ober - 6 (82), 6(84), 5 (68), looks like Ober would have 3 5 innings starts.

IMO the Twins are basically doing this, but upped the pitch count a bit from 75 and are using 5 starters. Do you honestly believe starting pitchers are going to be able to start 40 games and pitch the same or more innings with less rest?

Paddack has thrown 89, 86, and 82, and only once completed 5 innings,

SWR pitched one of the more efficient starts that we have seen (6 innings, 2 hits, 1 BBm 5 K's) and threw 80 pitches, He would have been pulled after 5 in this scenario,

Won't even mention Varland.

If you are going to cap pitch count and hope for the most innings as possible, you need 5 starter types at least, because the way I see it no pitching staff could with stand that pressure and lack of rest for pitchers. If you cap it at 3 or 4 innings depending on who that pitcher is, it seems reasonable you could go with 4 starter types. And that gets back to would any starter pitcher want to be on a team that it was impossible for them to get a win? How would fans like it, if they go to a game and Lopez is 0 -13 with no matter his ERA?

[ClosetFan]

The Giants converted Jordan Hicks from a hard-throwing reliever into a starter and he has been great so far (currently ranks 26th in MLB in average Game Score). Johan Duran used to be a starter. Why not make him a starter again? The Twins have the second best bullpen in MLB so far this year without Duran. With Varland out for now and maybe done forever as a major league starter, seems like Duran would be a great option, and potentially become an ace. I understand it would take a while to stretch him out. I am just a fan, not a pitching expert, so looking for thoughts from others who understand pitching more than me.

[Oldgoat_MN]

On 4/21/2024 at 11:20 PM, Cap'n Piranha said:

You're not capping them at 4 IP/start, but more like 75 pitches.  The hope is to get 5-6 IP, but plan for 4 as the bare minimum goal.  The whole idea is that you actually pitch your best pitchers MORE; Lopez pitches 40 times a year instead of 30-32, and your 5th starter is actually in the bullpen.  If this strategy makes the team better, I hope the pitchers would be on board with the team winning (especially if they're getting $21M a year).  When it comes to payroll, this might actually increase it, as you now need 8 guys capable of going up to 3 innings every time; while there's more of those than there are guys capable of going 6 every time, there's a lot fewer than those capable of 1.  True, you might not pay any one guy $20M plus anymore, but the Twins have never done that for anyone not named Pablo Lopez.  But if you're paying 8 guys $6M-$8M, pitcher payroll will not be nothing.

I appreciate the outside the box thinking. People writing against this idea have thoughtful points and may very well be right. 

Someone is going to bring some new approach to their pitching staff. It will certainly be met with some derision, but changes will be made and many will believe it to be an improvement. 

Another part of life where change is the only constant. 

[bean5302]

Largest 6 starting pitcher contracts in baseball.
Yamamoto = $325MM
Cole = $324MM
Strasburg = $245MM
deGrom = $185MM
Nola = $172MM
Rodon = $162MM

Lets look at the top 4 relievers...
Diaz = $102MM
Chapman = $86MM
Jansen = $80MM
Melancon = $62MM

Reliever contracts (low innings, more appearances) are generally 3-4x less than starters of the same ranking, and 1/2 the AAV. Anybody who believes starting pitchers are going to be on board with the strategy of tanking their value certainly isn't considering the impact of fewer innings/WAR. There's a reason why Sonny Gray was PO'd with Baldelli in 2022. Gray was trying to get paid for his next contract, and that was going to require him eating innings.

[laloesch]

On 4/24/2024 at 2:03 PM, ClosetFan said:

The Giants converted Jordan Hicks from a hard-throwing reliever into a starter and he has been great so far (currently ranks 26th in MLB in average Game Score). Johan Duran used to be a starter. Why not make him a starter again? The Twins have the second best bullpen in MLB so far this year without Duran. With Varland out for now and maybe done forever as a major league starter, seems like Duran would be a great option, and potentially become an ace. I understand it would take a while to stretch him out. I am just a fan, not a pitching expert, so looking for thoughts from others who understand pitching more than me.

I tend to share your thoughts on this.  Johan Santana was a reliever at first.  Duran would take some time to adjust but if they were serious about it the discussions would likely be happening by now.  We shall see.