Matt Braun and Cody Schoenmann Predict the 2024 MLB Award Winners

[Cody Schoenmann]

Matt Braun and Cody Schoenmann predict the 2024 MLB Award winners. Will any Twins come away with prestigious honors?

The MLB season has already started, and the Twins play their first game later this week. So, why not predict the winners of the game's most prestigious awards?

American League Awards Predictions

AL MVP:

Matt - Julio Rodríguez, Seattle Mariners
I love Rodríguez. He showed up essentially fully formed and incredible in a tremendous 2022 season, then followed that up with a 4th-place finish in the AL MVP race. As a 22-year-old. Brooks Lee is 23. Few players in the AL combine his absurd athleticism with such a polished all-around game and a demeanor matched only by the most psychopathic competitors ever to don a baseball uniform. 

The only thing potentially holding him back—it’s hilarious to write that about a guy with 11.3 career fWAR over two seasons—is his offensive aggression. He swings like Count Basie. That “limits” his upside compared to the superhuman on-base gods like Aaron Judge and Corey Seager, but I’m confident he’ll iron out the few holes in his game. 

Cody - Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals
After an admirably average rookie season, Witt Jr. followed his MLB debut with a stellar sophomore performance, generating 5.7 Wins Above Replacement at FanGraphs (fWAR) and a 115 wRC+. The still-only-23-year-old’s mighty 2023 campaign earned him a $11-year, $288 million contract. Royals’ ownership’s motive behind extending Witt Jr. was likely to leverage the public to fund a stadium in downtown Kansas City. Still, the former second-overall pick deserves every penny, billionaires’ malevolence aside.

Do I think the Royals will challenge the Twins for the AL Central title this upcoming season? Not in a serious manner. Do I think Bobby Witt Jr. is the best player in the AL Central? Yes. Two things can exist at once. In 2022, Witt Jr. hit 20 home runs and stole 30 bases. The following season, he hit 30 home runs and stole 49 bases. Witt Jr. hit ten more home runs and stole 19 more bases while cutting his strikeout rate by 4% and increasing his walk rate by 1.1%. Expect the face of the Royals to progress even more in 2024, potentially hitting 35+ home runs and stealing 50 or more bases. Juan Soto is also a smart choice. 

AL Cy Young:

Matt - Pablo López, Minnesota Twins
I’m fascinated by this race. The top four finishers in last year’s vote are either hurt (Gerrit Cole, Kevin Gausman, and Kyle Bradish) or jumped ship to the NL (Sonny Gray). That leaves an extreme dearth of starters with a decent claim to win this award.

 

So, López. Homerism? Sure. I can’t deny that. He’s in his athletic prime, though, and I think his peripherals align with his genuine talent more than his relatively unimpressive ERA. He might win the award by default if he’s more in the 3.20 range with a similar innings total and strikeout dominance. Luis Castillo and George Kirby are strong contenders here, too.

Cody - George Kirby, Seattle Mariners
Kirby is a strong contender. So strong that he’s my pick to win. In 190 ⅔ innings pitched last season, Kirby generated a 2.5% walk rate, a 100-percentile outcome at Baseball Savant. The 26-year-old righty's ability to control the basepaths at maximum efficiency guided him toward notching an impressive 3.35 ERA, near-identical 3.34 FIP, and 4.4 fWAR in 2023. 

Utilizing a six-pitch (technically seven if you count the knuckleball he threw twice) mix, Kirby overmatches hitters over elongated outings, averaging roughly six ⅓ innings per start. I love Matt’s pick of López, and as a fellow homer, I hope Pablo wins the award. That said, Kirby is on the verge of elevating his game to an elite level while potentially tossing 200+ innings, making me believe he will win his first AL Cy Young Award in 2024.

Rookie of the Year:

Matt - Evan Carter, Texas Rangers
I don’t care about small samples; Carter ran a 13.4 O-swing rate over a non-insignificant amount of plate appearances. That’s a hell of a base to build one’s game off of. He’s already entrenched as the Opening Day starter, giving him a leg-up on an uber-prospect like Jackson Holliday or others needing an injury or, cough, “defensive work” before they can earn serious playing time.

Cody - Wyatt Langford, Texas Rangers
I have more faith in small samples. For example, my girlfriend and I haven’t gotten along historically, but the last month-and-a-half has gone very well. I’m convinced it’s sustainable. Regardless, I, like Matt, am selecting a young Texas Rangers outfielder to win AL Rookie of the Year. Unfortunately, the player I am selecting has only one first name. 

Langford was great at Florida and has been tremendous at every minor league level, jumping from rookie ball to Triple-A in half a season. The fourth overall selection in last year’s MLB Draft earned a spot on the Rangers 2024 Opening Day roster. If he stays with Texas all season, there’s a real chance he will hit 30+ home runs and become one of the reigning World Champions' primary offensive contributors.

National League Awards Predictions

NL MVP:

Matt - Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks
This exercise taught me that I have a bias towards outfielders. I’m not sure what this says about me. Carroll is a lot like Julio; he was shockingly good at a young age and should only get better with seasoning. He’s the platonic lead-off hitter: a rare combination of power, excellent swing decisions, and speed mixed with the kind of “hair on fire” hustle typically only matched in vigor by a dog bolting with a recently stolen cut of steak. 

Carroll has two factors working against him: a truly horrendous arm that negates all of his positive defensive value and an NL loaded with obscene talent. He might not even end up the 3rd-best player in his division. I’m banking on the upside, though.

Cody - Francisco Lindor, New York Mets
The Mets will surprise many of those who follow the sport and make the playoffs. Fellow stars Kodai Senga, Edwin Díaz, Pete Alonso, Brandin Nimmo, and J.D. Martinez will play significant roles in their unexpected postseason push. Still, I think Lindor will be the driving force of their aspirations. 

Some have viewed Lindor’s three seasons with the Mets as disappointing. He performed only 17% above league average while earning $34.1 million per season. That said, the former face of Cleveland baseball hit 31 home runs and stole 31 bases last season in 159 games played. If the 30-year-old star shortstop can replicate his 2023 campaign while guiding the potentially rejuvenated Mets to a postseason berth, the longtime beloved figure could win his first MVP award. 

NL Cy Young:

Matt - Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants
Webb is what you get when you retrofit an '80s pitcher to the modern game. He’s perfectly content with allowing his infield to do the heavy lifting while he breezes through frames with fewer than 15 pitchers per inning. The weirdly congested NL Cy Young race screwed him last year; he only dominated in innings and K/BB, which voters deemed less impressive than Blake Snell’s hyper-inefficient 2.25 ERA. I disagree. Webb’s unique workload capabilities make him a great bet to be the fallback Cy Young winner if Snell’s ERA regresses (likely) or Spencer Strider’s peripherals prove impossible to match.

Cody - Bobby Miller, Los Angeles Dodgers
When looking at the Dodgers starting rotation, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow jump off the page as more imminent Cy Young Award candidates, and rightfully so. Yamamoto signed a $12-year, $325 million deal with Los Angeles this offseason, and the organization shipped away promising young players Ryan Pepiot and Jonny DeLuca for the hard-throwing Glasnow’s services. Both pitchers are incredible, and I have no doubt they will perform well over the long stretch of the 2024 season. 

 

That said, Miller is slated to be the workhorse of the team’s top-heavy staff, lending him the greatest opportunity to come away with the prestigious award. Miller was incredible during his 2023 rookie campaign, generating a 3.76 ERA and 1.10 WHIP while sporting one of the best four-seam fastballs in MLB. Barring health, Miller will reasonably throw 170+ innings next season while sporting one of the best five-pitch mixes in baseball, Stuff and movement-wise. Voters could reward the young Dodger with the ultimate award for a starting pitcher in his second MLB season.

NL Rookie of the Year:

Matt - Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates
It’s unclear when Skenes will make his MLB debut, but I don’t care; he’s a stud. Skenes probably could have (should have) been an MLB pitcher immediately following being drafted because, well, he’s a firehose of stuff built like Anthony Barr. His fastball routinely sits 100, and his slider may be the better pitch. Nerds will argue over his fastball shape, but—like I said before—I don’t care; he’s a stud. 

Cody - DL Hall, Milwaukee Brewers
Despite being built more like Harrison Smith than Anthony Barr, Hall still provides incredible stuff, just not at the magnitude of the fireball-throwing Skenes. Hall’s fastball averaged 95.6 MPH with the Baltimore Orioles last season, yet was a MPH-or-two higher in the minors. Although the 25-year-old’s fastball doesn’t consistently touch 100+ MPH like Skenes, his elite release extension and flat Vertical Approach Angle (VAA) allow his heater to thrive at the top of the zone. 

Acquired alongside infielder Joey Ortiz and the 34th pick in the 2024 MLB Draft in the deal that sent Corbin Burnes to the Orioles, Hall will make the Brewers Opening Day rotation. Milwaukee loves Hall and will give him every opportunity to stay in the team’s rotation all season. Mix his favorable situation in the 414 with a stellar spring performance, and the young lefty has all the makings to be the first Brewer to win Rookie of the Year since Devin Williams in 2020. 

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[jimmyc]

Francisco Lindor:  16.8 FWAR over 3 seasons in NY (and 12.6 FWAR in the last 2) is leaps and bounds better than "only 17% above league average".  

[Cody Christie]

AL MVP: Juan Soto
NL MVP: Mookie Betts

AL Cy: Pablo Lopez
NL Cy: Spencer Strider

[Doctor Gast]

AL MVP = Julio Rodriguez

AL CY = Pablo Lopez

The rest I have no picks

[Cody Schoenmann]

2 hours ago, jimmyc said:

Francisco Lindor:  16.8 FWAR over 3 seasons in NY (and 12.6 FWAR in the last 2) is leaps and bounds better than "only 17% above league average".  

LIndor was great in 2022 and last season, I agree. But he's manufactured a 117 wRC+ in his time with the Mets, equalling 17% above average. 

[jimmyc]

5 hours ago, Cody Schoenmann said:

LIndor was great in 2022 and last season, I agree. But he's manufactured a 117 wRC+ in his time with the Mets, equalling 17% above average. 

Using a single offensive statistic.  But no one (except maybe some hater Mets fans) truly believes that he is overall only 17% better than the average MLB player.

[JD-TWINS]

How good are the Rangers going to be by August????

Top 2 guys - almost certainties for eventual success - that are shown here as ROY candidates. Couple them with last year’s youth, Jung & Heim. Then, Simien, Garcia, & Seager mixed into the Top 3 spots in the line-up……….wow!! Oh yes, deGrom - Scherzer - Mahle all expected back at various times from late June into early August……big wow!!!

NL MVP - Mookie Betts may score 175 runs batting in front of Ohtani & Freeman! Just seems he will see very good pitches in nearly all AB’s because the guy in the bump has no choice. I think he was already 2nd or 3rd last year?………That said, with Betts & Ohtani in front of him, Freeman may have 160 RBI….,he’s pretty good as well.