Matt Braun and Cody Schoenmann Predict the 2024 MLB Award Winners

The MLB season has already started, and the Twins play their first game later this week. So, why not predict the winners of the game's most prestigious awards?

American League Awards Predictions
AL MVP
Matt - Julio Rodríguez, Seattle Mariners
I love Rodríguez. He showed up essentially fully formed and incredible in a tremendous 2022 season, then followed that up with a fourth-place finish in the AL MVP race. He did that as a 22-year-old. Brooks Lee is 23.

Few players in the AL combine Rodríguez's absurd athleticism with such a polished all-around game and a demeanor matched only by the most ardent competitors ever to don a baseball uniform. The only thing potentially holding him back—it’s hilarious to write that about a guy with 11.3 career fWAR over two seasons—is his offensive aggression. He swings like Count Basie. That “limits” his upside compared to superhuman on-base gods like Aaron Judge and Corey Seager, but I’m confident he’ll iron out the few holes in his game. Heck, Seager is a free swinger in his own way. Rodríguez just needs to hone his aggression to the same extent.

Cody - Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals
After an exciting but ultimately average rookie season, Witt broke out with a stellar sophomore performance, generating 5.7 Wins Above Replacement at FanGraphs and a 115 wRC+. The 23-year-old’s mighty 2023 campaign earned him an 11-year, $288-million contract. Royals ownership’s motive behind extending Witt was likely to persuade the public to fund a stadium in downtown Kansas City. Still, the former second-overall pick deserves every penny. The deal makes plenty of sense even without an ulterior motive?

Do I think the Royals will challenge the Twins for the AL Central title this upcoming season? Not in a serious manner. Do I think Witt is the best player in the AL Central? Yes. In 2022, Witt hit 20 home runs and stole 30 bases. The following season, he hit 30 home runs and stole 49 bases. He made those leaps while cutting his strikeout rate by 4% and increasing his walk rate by 1.1%. Expect the face of the Royals to progress even more in 2024, potentially hitting 35-plus home runs and stealing 50 or more bases. Juan Soto is also a smart choice. 

AL Cy Young
Matt - Pablo López, Minnesota Twins
I’m fascinated by this race. The top four finishers in last year’s vote are either hurt (Gerrit Cole, Kevin Gausman, and Kyle Bradish) or jumped ship to the NL (Sonny Gray). That leaves an extreme dearth of starters with a likely claim to win this award.

So, López. Homerism? Sure. I can’t deny that. He’s in his athletic prime, though, and I think his peripherals align with his genuine talent more than his relatively unimpressive ERA does. He might win the award by default if he’s more in the 3.20 range, with a similar innings total and strikeout dominance. Luis Castillo and George Kirby are strong contenders here, too.

Cody - George Kirby, Seattle Mariners
Kirby is a strong contender--so strong that he’s my pick to win. In 190 ⅔ innings pitched last season, Kirby generated a 2.5% walk rate, the best in baseball. The 26-year-old righty's ability to minimize traffic on the bases guided him to an impressive 3.35 ERA, near-identical 3.34 FIP, and 4.4 fWAR in 2023. 

Utilizing a six-pitch (technically seven, if you count the knuckleball he threw twice) mix, Kirby overmatches hitters over elongated outings, averaging roughly 6 ⅓ innings per start. I love Matt’s pick of López, and as a fellow homer, I hope he wins the award. That said, Kirby is on the verge of elevating his game to an elite level while potentially tossing 200 or more innings, making me believe he will win his first AL Cy Young Award in 2024.

Rookie of the Year
Matt - Evan Carter, Texas Rangers
I don’t care about small samples; Carter ran a 13.4% out-of-zone swing rate over a not-insignificant number of plate appearances. That’s a hell of a base on which to build one’s game. He’s already entrenched in the Opening Day lineup, giving him a leg up on an uber-prospect like Jackson Holliday or others needing an injury or (ahem) “defensive work” before they can earn serious playing time.

Cody - Wyatt Langford, Texas Rangers
I have more faith in small samples. For example, my girlfriend and I haven’t gotten along historically, but the last month and a half has gone very well. I’m convinced it’s sustainable. Regardless, I, like Matt, am selecting a young Texas Rangers outfielder to win AL Rookie of the Year. Unfortunately, the player I am selecting has only one first name. [Ed. note: Arguably, none. And this is now going to break my brain, so apologies in advance to both Evan Wyatt and Carter Langford for my errors.] 

Langford was great at Florida and has been tremendous at every minor-league level, jumping from rookie ball to Triple-A in half a season. The fourth overall selection in last year’s MLB Draft earned a spot on the Rangers' 2024 Opening Day roster. If he stays with Texas all season, there’s a real chance he will hit 30 home runs and become one of the reigning champions' primary offensive contributors.

National League Awards Predictions
NL MVP
Matt - Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks
This exercise taught me that I have a bias toward outfielders. I’m not sure what this says about me. Carroll is a lot like Rodríguez; he was shockingly good at a young age and should only get better with seasoning. He’s the platonic ideal of a leadoff hitter: a rare combination of power, excellent swing decisions, and speed mixed with the kind of “hair on fire” hustle typically only matched in vigor by a dog bolting with a recently stolen cut of steak. 

Carroll has two factors working against him: a truly horrendous arm that negates all of his positive defensive value and an NL loaded with extraordinary talent. He might not even end up the third-best player in his division. I’m banking on the upside, though.

Cody - Francisco Lindor, New York Mets
The Mets will surprise many of those who follow the sport and make the playoffs. Fellow stars Kodai Senga, Edwin Díaz, Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, and J.D. Martinez will play significant roles in their unexpected postseason push. Still, I think Lindor will be the driving force.

Some have viewed Lindor’s three seasons with the Mets as disappointing. He's performed only 17% above league average while earning $34.1 million per season. That said, the former face of Cleveland baseball hit 31 home runs and stole 31 bases last season in 159 games played. If the 30-year-old star shortstop can replicate his 2023 campaign while guiding the potentially rejuvenated Mets to a postseason berth, the longtime beloved figure could win his first MVP award. 

NL Cy Young
Matt - Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants
Webb is what you get when you retrofit an '80s pitcher to the modern game. He’s perfectly content with allowing his infield to do the heavy lifting while he breezes through frames with fewer than 15 pitches per inning. The weirdly congested NL Cy Young race screwed him last year; he only dominated in innings and strikeout-to-walk ratio, which voters deemed less impressive than Blake Snell’s hyper-inefficient style but gaudy 2.25 ERA. I disagree. Webb’s unique workload capabilities make him a great bet to be the fallback Cy Young winner if Snell’s ERA regresses (likely) or Spencer Strider’s peripherals prove impossible to match.

Cody - Bobby Miller, Los Angeles Dodgers
When looking at the Dodgers' starting rotation, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow jump off the page as more imminent Cy Young candidates, and rightfully so. Yamamoto signed a $12-year, $325-million deal with Los Angeles this offseason, and the organization shipped away promising young players Ryan Pepiot and Jonny DeLuca for the hard-throwing Glasnow’s services. Both pitchers are incredible, and I have no doubt they will perform well.

That said, Miller is slated to be the workhorse of the team’s topheavy staff, lending him the greatest opportunity to come away with the prestigious award. Miller was incredible during his 2023 rookie campaign, generating a 3.76 ERA and 1.10 WHIP while sporting one of the best four-seam fastballs in MLB. Barring health, Miller could reasonably throw 170-plus innings while sporting one of the best five-pitch mixes in baseball, stuff and movement-wise. Voters could reward the young Dodger with the ultimate award for a starting pitcher in his second MLB season.

NL Rookie of the Year
Matt - Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates
It’s unclear when Skenes will make his MLB debut, but I don’t care; he’s a stud. Skenes probably could have (and should have) been an MLB pitcher immediately following being drafted because, well, he’s a firehose of stuff built like Anthony Barr. His fastball routinely tops 100 miles per hour, and his slider may be the better pitch. Nerds will argue over his fastball shape, but—like I said before—I don’t care; he’s a stud.

Cody - DL Hall, Milwaukee Brewers
Despite being built more like Harrison Smith than Anthony Barr, Hall still provides incredible stuff, just not at the magnitude of the flamethrowing Skenes. Hall’s fastball averaged 95.6 MPH with the Baltimore Orioles last season, yet was a tick or two higher in the minors. Although the 25-year-old’s fastball doesn’t consistently touch 100+ MPH like Skenes, his elite release extension and flat Vertical Approach Angle (VAA) allow his heater to thrive at the top of the zone. 

Acquired alongside infielder Joey Ortiz and the 34th pick in the 2024 MLB Draft in the deal that sent Corbin Burnes to the Orioles, Hall will make the Brewers' Opening Day rotation. Milwaukee loves Hall and will give him every opportunity to stay in the rotation all season. Mix his favorable situation in the 414 with a tantalizing spring performance, and the young lefty has all the makings to be the first Brewer to win Rookie of the Year since Devin Williams in 2020.

Who are your picks for the major awards in each league? What did we get right or wrong? Join the debate below.