Official Day 1 Draft Thread

[InfraRen]

Darren Wolfson ‏@DarrenWolfson36s

All Radcliff gave me: they have a book on him & have thought about him at 43. RT ‏@InfraRen @DarrenWolfson pin down Twins interest in Boldt?

[DaveW]

Darren Wolfson ‏@DarrenWolfson14s

FWIW, the #MNTwins have not reached out on Colin Moran or Austin Meadows. Most signs still point to Kohl Stewart at No. 4 tonight.

 

Why would they need to reach out to either one? Its not like they will be "tough signings"

[John Bonnes]

Has anyone seen Klaws new mock yet? He said he was working on one last night, I dont know if its out yet?

 

Law says that as of late last night, the Astros were trying to nail down a cost for Appel that would allow them to still be a little under slot for that first pick. Then he went Gray and Bryand and the Twins took Stewart.

 

Law says that isn't a sure thing for HOU, and they still could go Moran. It sounds like it's going to come down to the money.

[Gernzy]

Sounds like its going to be Stewart. If Appel or Gray is there at 4, I hope we take one of them instead.

[cmb0252]

Mayo's new and final mock. Twins going Stewart.

 

Jonathan Gray still looking like No. 1 overall pick in MLB First-Year Player Draft | MLB.com: News

[boylan]

Who do you work for again? Are you a scout for a MLB team, HS or a College? Or something else? You must be a good pro scout to see something nobody else sees.

 

The scouts ALL see the control problems and have graded him as such. They aren't the ones that have to fix it however and that's crux of the player development/scout conflict. I agree, if his control problems can be fixed he's probably a can't miss prospect but I'm guessing he's been throwing this way since little league. He's not alone.

[Oxtung]

I've seen this on this board from a couple of members. Anyone have a link to this study? I just don't believe it.

 

Matt Garrioch did a study of drafts from '87(I think) to '01 on every player drafted. He found that, in the first round at least, HS RHP were slightly more likely to be solid everyday players than college RHP. However, HS LHP failed at a very high rate, something like only 20% made it to the majors.

 

Here is the link to the google docs spreadsheet. You can look at the success rates of all the positions broken down by HS/College, RH/LH, Round drated and differentiated into never made it to majors, part time player, solid regular, part time allstar, regular allstar, superstar, alltime great. He used WAR as his stat of choice.

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B-772wlhxPhPNjUyY2JiMmItYzJlYi00Yjk5LThlOTUtODkwN2IzMTU5ODIx/edit?hl=en_US

[ashbury]

A girl, on the internet?

 

Hi w-what is y-your..... q-question a-again?

 

:o

 

My spidey-sense is telling me she's either a prank, scam, or sting of some kind. My apologies, Vera, if I am wrong.

[cmb0252]

Stupid internet is down so I'm stuck using my phone. Here is what law had to say:

 

Pick:Stewart

Analysis:*They have considered Reese McGuire, and I think they'd take Gray or Appel if either one got here, assuming they knew either player would sign.

 

He has a chat at 2 est so go ask him questions

[InfraRen]

The scouts ALL see the control problems and have graded him as such. They aren't the ones that have to fix it however and that's crux of the player development/scout conflict. I agree, if his control problems can be fixed he's probably a can't miss prospect but I'm guessing he's been throwing this way since little league. He's not alone.

 

They also say that most stud HS pitchers are throwers at that age since they're easily beating the HS hitters. They don't really develop the full feel for pitching until later on. I see this as a good thing. He has 4 great pitches, TONS of raw ability - and will polish up before the Bigs.

[InfraRen]

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Comment From Andrew

What do you think the range is on Hunter Green? Any chance there for Twins at 43?

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[TD=class: chatmsgtext altcaster_text]Sure, absolutely. Could go as high as 23 and could go as low as mid second round. There are a ton of lefties this year, what order they go in is one of the better mysteries of this draft.[/TD]

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[Oxtung]

Actualy more college pitchers taken in the first round over the last 40 or so years have made it to the majors, however on the average a HS pitcher that does make it is usualy better than a college arm. Is that what you meant? Heres a graph I found

 

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Category

College Pitchers 1965-2008

High School Pitchers 1965-2008

Drafted

356

307

Made Majors

253 (71.1%)

176 (57.3%)

Made Avg. WAR

6.65

7.23

100+ Appearances

147 (41.3%)

100 (32.6%)

100+ Avg. WAR

11.58

12.69

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It shows a higher percent of college pitchers make the majors but HS pitchers are usualy better.

 

I'm not sure what good that data does. So much has changed that anything older than the 90's and the information revolution, is suspect IMO. Even Garrioch's study that I just linked to is questionable though it goes back to '87 I believe.

[Joe A. Preusser]

They also say that most stud HS pitchers are throwers at that age since they're easily beating the HS hitters. They don't really develop the full feel for pitching until later on. I see this as a good thing. He has 4 great pitches, TONS of raw ability - and will polish up before the Bigs.

 

I agree with this. If he were trying to "pitch" instead of throw then I might be worried about minor mechanics. But then again, if a HS kid needs to really "pitch" to be successful instead of just going out there and rocking and rolling, then he probably isn't much of a prospect yet. It's the raw talent and ability to throw the ball through the backstop that makes him a prospect. Our minor league system will teach him how to truly "pitch."

[InfraRen]

Darren Wolfson ‏@DarrenWolfson1m

Gotten a few "What if Gray falls to 4?" questions. I don't have the final answer right now. That advisor heard Gray won't fall. #mntwins

[boylan]

They also say that most stud HS pitchers are throwers at that age since they're easily beating the HS hitters. They don't really develop the full feel for pitching until later on. I see this as a good thing. He has 4 great pitches, TONS of raw ability - and will polish up before the Bigs.

 

I don't necessarily disagree with that. The reason HS pitchers have historically been bad picks (relative to other options) is that (historically) scouts fall in love with the velocity and that's all the kids ever have.

 

That is NOT the case with Stewart. If one watches the tape it's clear he is not just a thrower. My freak-out with him is I know what he's doing with his delivery and what it takes to fix.

[InfraRen]

Another chat if people are interested (and/or as obsessive as me):

 

Patrick Ebert ‏@PGPatrickEbert32s

The #PG Draft LIVE! chat portal is open for your questions - @FPilierePG will be in there to answer them #mlbdraft http://www.perfectgame.org/Draft/DraftHQ.aspx …

[InfraRen]

Re-post, sorry.

[markos]

This from Dave Cameron today:

 

Eddy finds something similar when he looks at pitchers as well. Basically, the idea that college players are significantly better bets than high school players simply doesn’t seem to be true anymore, if it ever was. The flameout rate of high school players is much higher, but almost the entirety of the difference is made up of college guys who get to the big leagues but never amount to much. In terms of actually finding talent who produce significant value — and it’s not like +10 WAR is a crazy high bar — high school players have done nearly as well, despite the fact that (as Eddy notes) the three year head start they have should bias the results of active players towards the college guys.

 

LINK: Analyzing Draft History | FanGraphs Baseball

 

This is in reference to the BA article I linked to earlier.

[markos]

This from Dave Cameron today:

 

Eddy finds something similar when he looks at pitchers as well. Basically, the idea that college players are significantly better bets than high school players simply doesn’t seem to be true anymore, if it ever was. The flameout rate of high school players is much higher, but almost the entirety of the difference is made up of college guys who get to the big leagues but never amount to much. In terms of actually finding talent who produce significant value — and it’s not like +10 WAR is a crazy high bar — high school players have done nearly as well, despite the fact that (as Eddy notes) the three year head start they have should bias the results of active players towards the college guys.

 

LINK: Analyzing Draft History | FanGraphs Baseball

 

This is in reference to the BA article I linked to earlier.

[Red Bull]

They also say that most stud HS pitchers are throwers at that age since they're easily beating the HS hitters. They don't really develop the full feel for pitching until later on. I see this as a good thing. He has 4 great pitches, TONS of raw ability - and will polish up before the Bigs.

 

Exactly, show me a HS pitcher that doesnt need any tunning before he gets to the majors and I will show you an alien.

[Red Bull]

Most of the aces in the MLB are HS pitchers (Strasburg, Kershaw), but that doesnt mean HS pitchers make it to the MLB more than College pitchers. More college pitchers make it to the MLB, its a fact. I would rather take a HS pitcher high because they have a better chance to be an ace, and the Twins could develop him better than a college team could.

[nicksaviking]

I find it amusing that all these "leaks" occur shotgun style the day of the draft. Seems to me this would be the day of the most deception.

[cmb0252]

A few more questions fro Christopher Crawfords chat (internet is finally working).

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Comment From Cory

Who do the Twins look at in round 2, #43?

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I think it depends on what route they go at 43. If they go with Stewart or McGuire I think they look at a college arm like Balog or Chris Anderson, someone along those lines. If they go Gray then prep pitcher like Jacob Brentz or Blake Taylor.

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Comment From Cory

Would Byron Buxton still be the #1 rated player in this draft as well as last year?

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Absolutely. I was on board with Buxton ever since I laid eyes on him in Chicago in 2012. What a beast.

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Comment From Casey

What do you think Stewart's price tag is?

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Over slot, for sure. My guess is somewhere in the $5, $5.5 range, assuming he goes 4.

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Comment From Muggsy

which is the better option for the twins: mcquire and +$2million to spend on the rest of their draft or stewart @ $5 million and virtually nothing to spend on the rest of their draft?

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I think it's Stewart, and I wouldn't say virtually nothing. They'd still have $3 million or so to play with. If he signs for $5

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Comment From Ryan

Tom Windle to the Twins at 43?

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He should be available, it would be a slight reach but not the worst thing in the world. More of a back-end starter to me.

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If any are a repost, sorry

[cmb0252]

Keith Law's chat will be starting any minute now. Get your Twins draft questions in!

 

Chat: Chat with Keith Law - SportsNation - ESPN

[Red Bull]

So I did some research to find out if more HS pitchers or College pitchers taken in the first round make it to the MLB. I looked at the pitchers taken in the 1st round from 03-07, heres what I found

 

Pitchers taken in 1st round /Made it to MLB(15+ Wins)

 

HS-23/35%

 

College-47/40%

 

 

The percent that make it to the MLB is pretty even, but HS pitchers that are taken in the first round are more likely to become Aces. I used 15 wins minmum because that shows they stayed for atleast a little bit, some only played a game or 2. I know this is just a very rough outline but whatever.

[Twins Twerp]

Most of the aces in the MLB are HS pitchers (Strasburg, Kershaw), but that doesnt mean HS pitchers make it to the MLB more than College pitchers. More college pitchers make it to the MLB, its a fact. I would rather take a HS pitcher high because they have a better chance to be an ace, and the Twins could develop him better than a college team could.

 

No offense, but Strasburg wasn't even drafted out of high school in all 40 rounds (i don't think). He played under Tony G. But he was technically a high school pitcher at one time.

[3rd Inning Stretch]

Most of the aces in the MLB are HS pitchers (Strasburg, Kershaw), but that doesnt mean HS pitchers make it to the MLB more than College pitchers. More college pitchers make it to the MLB, its a fact. I would rather take a HS pitcher high because they have a better chance to be an ace, and the Twins could develop him better than a college team could.

 

Errr Strasburg is a college guy, so are Price, Verlander, etc. Good HS ones as well (Kershaw, Hamels, Wainwright, Cain) but many college guys have become aces.

[diehardtwinsfan]

My spidey-sense is telling me she's either a prank, scam, or sting of some kind. My apologies, Vera, if I am wrong.

 

Since she hasn't posted back, I tend to agree... though if she had, I was going to warn her that you might steal her avatar and photoshop a TC on it somewhere.

[cmb0252]

From Law's chat:

 

Your best guess - Kohl Stewart going to sign an MLB contract or go to A&M to back up Jonny football?

[h=6]Klaw (2:09 PM)

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He's going to sign.

[diehardtwinsfan]

A few more questions fro Christopher Crawfords chat (internet is finally working).

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Comment From Cory

Who do the Twins look at in round 2, #43?

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I think it depends on what route they go at 43. If they go with Stewart or McGuire I think they look at a college arm like Balog or Chris Anderson, someone along those lines. If they go Gray then prep pitcher like Jacob Brentz or Blake Taylor.

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Comment From Cory

Would Byron Buxton still be the #1 rated player in this draft as well as last year?

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Absolutely. I was on board with Buxton ever since I laid eyes on him in Chicago in 2012. What a beast.

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Comment From Casey

What do you think Stewart's price tag is?

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Over slot, for sure. My guess is somewhere in the $5, $5.5 range, assuming he goes 4.

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Comment From Muggsy

which is the better option for the twins: mcquire and +$2million to spend on the rest of their draft or stewart @ $5 million and virtually nothing to spend on the rest of their draft?

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I think it's Stewart, and I wouldn't say virtually nothing. They'd still have $3 million or so to play with. If he signs for $5

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Comment From Ryan

Tom Windle to the Twins at 43?

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He should be available, it would be a slight reach but not the worst thing in the world. More of a back-end starter to me.

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If any are a repost, sorry

If Chris Anderson is there at 43, I suspect there will be a lot of rejoicing in the minor league forums... just don't see that one happening.