Eight Out of the Box Starting Pitcher Ideas

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

One of the big differences between the Twins' 2022 and 2023 season was depth, especially in the rotation. Chi Chi Gonzalez, Aaron Sanchez, Cole Sands, Josh Winder, and Simeon Woods Richardson all made starts, and the top five of Ryan/Gray/Smeltzer/Bundy/Archer did not inspire much confidence, especially in the back half. This year, the starting five of Lopez/Gray/Ryan/Ober/Maeda were probably the best five top to bottom in team history, and with Mahle, Keuchel, and Varland making starts, they had depth and stability behind them.

With the Twins set to lose five of the ten pitchers that made starts for them this year (Jose De Leon and Emilio Pagan also made starts), their rotation may revert to 2022 form if they do ignore depth. I am a big supporter of the Twins going to the trading block or free agency market to pick up a bona fide #2 to replace Sonny Gray, but this topic will not involve a Sonny Gray replacement. Instead, this topic will focus on targets for the two starting pitchers the Twins can bring in at (relatively) low cost and can compete with Chris Paddack and Louie Varland for a #5 spot in the rotation. Here are eight guys (four free agents and four trade targets) the Twins should consider:

 

Free Agents:

#1: Alex Wood

The former All-Star may fly under the radar because of rough 2022 and 2023 campaigns in San Francisco, but he has a top-10 NL Cy Young finish and had a very productive 2021 campaign. With over 200 starts and 65 relief appearances, the versatile lefty could be valuable in a long relief role or back-end starter. His repertoire consists of a sinker, changeup, and breaking ball, which is what it has been for his entire career. Besides the fact that pitchers with sinker/changeup combos tend to age gracefully, Wood has never thrown very hard, so there should not be many concerns about the lefty losing effectiveness in his age-33 season.

                                           

Pictured on the left are his pitch locations in 2023, while the right is of the 2021 season (where he had a 3.83 ERA). He is using his sinker up in the zone more than he used to, as that pitch had a run value of 13 in 2021, while having a run value of just 2 in 2023. While the decision to move the pitch up was likely due to him having better numbers when his sinker is up in the zone (batters had a lower batting average against his sinker this year compared to 2023), he needs to tunnel his secondary stuff off of the sinker, something that he can't do when he's pitching up in the zone. His issues seem like an easy fix, and Wood is a veteran lefty who has had success with a ton of experience in varying roles.

Cost: 3-5M APY over 1-2 years

 

#2: Brad Keller

Keller needs a change of scenery/coaching staff. He's probably best known for hitting Tim Anderson in the butt with a fastball after Anderson decided to pimp a homerun he hit in the 4th inning of a meaningless game against the Royals. He is coming off a horrid 2023 season in which he had huge control issues, amounting to a 21.3% walk rate. He struggled with shoulder impingement syndrome, which is basically shoulder inflammation. He tried coming back toward the end of the year, but after walking five batters in two innings, it was clear that something was still bothering him. With a full offseason to recover and possibly a transition to the bullpen, Keller could be very effective in 2024.

When healthy, Keller has the makeup of a really good starter. Every year but one, he's posted a GB rate above the 80th percentile and has close to elite secondary stuff. His slider, especially, has been a great strikeout pitch, and I would not be surprised to see the Rays pick him up and turn him into a strikeout machine. His four-seamer is very interesting because it has a ton of rise with almost no horizontal movement. If the Twins are able to ensure that he can be healthy in 2024, Keller has the makings of a possible steal.

Cost: 1 yr minor-league deal

 

#3: Trevor Bauer

I did say, "Out of the box." With his two-year suspension ending and the fact that there is mounting evidence that the allegations made against him are demonstrably false, Bauer should be looking to return to the MLB from Japan. Before you get on your high horse about bringing in players with personal issues, I behoove you to remember a certain Twins player named Kirby Puckett, who had much more credible allegations against him. Bauer has also settled with his accuser, a settlement that involves him getting $300,000 from Lindsey Hill's insurance company, with no money moving from Bauer to Hill.

Minnesota makes sense for Bauer for a couple of reasons. Chiefly, the media presence in Minnesota is much less harsh compared to other markets. Going back to his UCLA days, sports media has developed a narrative that he's this incel conspiracy theory weirdo who writes "Bush did 9/11" on mounds of major league baseball, baselessly accuses the Astros of cheating, and fractures the skulls of women he dates. In Minnesota, there should be less of a distraction from these buffoons. Secondly, the Twins already have three established top-of-the-rotation arms in Lopez/Ryan/Ober, where Bauer is not under any pressure to be an ace right away.

In case you needed a reminder of how good Trevor Bauer was before his suspension, he finished 6th in AL Cy Young in 2018, 1st in NL Cy Young in 2020, and was likely on his way to another top-5 finish in 2021 before his reputation was ruined by a demonstrably false allegation. Bauer has an electric fastball/cutter combo with a curveball that offers an average of 63.3!!!!!!! inches of drop and a sweeper that hitters whiffed on 40.8% of the time in '21. His stats in Japan look very good (ERA in the 2.00s, with ~9 K/9), and it doesn't look like his stuff is seriously diminished. He may not be a Cy Young caliber pitcher anymore, but he's angry, he's got something to prove, and I hope the Trevor Bauer revenge tour starts in Minnesota.

Cost: 5-10M over one year with incentives up to 20M.

 

#4: Julio Teheran

One of the lone bright spots on some bad Braves teams in the mid-2010s, Teheran had fallen off the face of the baseball world until a few months ago. After pitching 36.1 innings of 8.92 ERA ball since 2019, the Brewers picked him up in late May, and Teheran pitched 72.1 innings of 4.40 ERA ball down the stretch for the Brewers. He posted an elite walk rate of 4.5%, leading to an excellent 1.130 WHIP. By upping the use of his sinker at the expense of his 4-seamer, Teheran was able to post a career-high 40.3% ground-ball rate, which is not very high, but it is encouraging, considering that he has had issues with the longball in the past.

If the Twins bring him in, they should not have him throw any more 4-seamers. This year, hitters hit .368 against it, with a 1.105 slugging percentage (not OPS; the slugging percentage was over 1.000), good for a .579 wOBA against. The numbers against that pitch were likely inflated due to a small sample size, but even the xwOBA allowed of .446 was meant that the average hitter had a better xwOBA than every major leaguer not named Aaron Judge or Ronald Acuña. He also gave up 4 of his 13 HR on that pitch, despite the fact he threw it less than 10% of the time. 

Currently, the Twins' pitching coaches seem to be looking for flyball pitchers who don't walk people. Given that Teheran fits that mold well and could be even better if he stopped throwing his four-seamer, the Twins may have a cheap, reliable veteran arm in Teheran who can take the ball every 5th day and give his guys a chance to win. 

Cost: 4-6M APY over 1-2 years

 

Trade Targets

#1: Drew Smyly

After having a great 2022 season for the North Siders, they handed him a 19M/2yr deal this past offseason, and it did not work out the way they liked. They had to move him into the bullpen down the stretch, as he finished the year with a 5.00 ERA. He's known for having one of the more unique curveballs in the game, as it does not move very much but is very difficult to pick up because there is no hump, and the spin quality is very different from most major-league breaking balls. 

Smyly is similar to Alex Wood in that he's had issues leaving his sinker in the top of the zone, but unlike Wood, his sinker gets crushed high. His BA against that pitch in '22 was .263, which skyrocketed to a BA of .314 this year. His curveball remains an elite pitch, but he has to be more dutiful about getting his sinker down in the zone. As a player, I like him a little bit more than Alex Wood for a couple of reasons. Firstly, Wood has never been a guy who works deep into ballgames, and while Smyly will never get a Gerrit Cole/Sandy Alcantara type of workload, he can go 6+ when he is on. Secondly, his most recent successful season was only last year, while Alex Wood now has two years of below-average play.

Cost: Chicago will likely pick up a decent portion of the $11M they owe to Smyly. A trade of a fringe top 30 prospect for Smyly + $ 5M seems fair and gives the Cubs some financial flexibility to be major players this winter once again.

 

#2: Carlos Rodón

The Yankees, for the first time in a little while, are going to be headed into an offseason needing to make drastic changes. Their offense was putrid when Judge was injured, and they had a tough time getting good innings out of starters not named Gerrit Cole. Rodón was brought in last offseason to be a co-ace behind Gerrit Cole on an expensive 162M/6yr contract. The former #3 overall pick was coming off of two top-6 finishes in Cy Young voting and a career-high 178.0 IP in 2022. Unfortunately for the Yankees, Rodón was hurt all of the first half, and pitched poorly when he was healthy during the second half. His on-field antics and general poor performance caused the normally gracious, understanding, levelheaded, and loving Yankees fanbase to be upset with one of their own players.

A hard retool is likely in store for the Yankees this offseason, as they did not play good baseball this year and are set to lose four pitchers to free agency. Uber prospect Jason Dominguez will likely miss the entire season, and 2024 looks like a great year for them to get under the luxury tax and gear up for some '25 and '26 runs with Judge and Cole still in their primes. Getting rid of Rodón and some of his contract would improve their culture and bring them under the tax threshold.

Rodón would likely benefit hugely from a change of scenery, as he only seemed to have controversies since his move to NY. I am sure that front office personnel would be in contact with Dallas Keuchel regarding Rodón's character before making a trade like this, and honestly, most of the controversy seems to revolve around him reacting poorly to Yankees fans having the IQ of a calabaza squash. Regarding on-field product, Rodón possesses an elite slider and four-seamer, allowing him to post extreme strikeout numbers. After having command issues early in his career, he posted walk rates of 6.7% and 7.3% in '21 and '22, respectively, giving him no real holes in his game besides not having more than two reliable pitches.

Cost: BTV currently has his value around -$60M, which means the Yankees will have to eat a significant chunk of the remaining $135M they still owe to him. A trade of Jovani Moran for Carlos Rodon and $60M makes sense to me, as the Yankees have had success developing relievers. This trade would be a huge risk for the Twins, but they would be getting a (potentially) elite starter on a 75M/5yr deal: a bargain.

 

#3: JT Brubaker

Admittedly, a guy who owns a career 4.99 ERA in the middle of his Tommy John recovery does not scream "trade for me." However, what we're looking for in this topic are undervalued pitchers who could help the rotation; Brubaker is definitely undervalued, and he should be available in the second half. This past spring training, he was one of the top pitchers in March, as he finished top-5 in strikeouts during the preseason. Unfortunately, he was put on the injured list before opening day and had Tommy John surgery during the second week of the year.

Brubaker is a guy who could benefit from a sweeper. He currently owns a slider reminiscent of a Scott Baker's, where it breaks straight down, with little to no lateral break. While that pitch may have been effective in the late 2000s, it is one of the worst secondary pitches in baseball, as it racked up a -11 run value in '22. His other two main pitches, the curveball and sinker, both had run values of 4 in '22; the slider is just a poor pitch. A sweeper makes a lot of sense for Brubaker, as his sinker offers a lot of arm-side run, allowing him to effectively tunnel s sweeper off his sinker. The Twins have had great success adding sweepers to Sonny Gray and Pablo Lopez's arsenal, and Joe Ryan's sweeper looks promising as well. They have also looked to sign guys coming during their TJ recovery (Paddack and Pineda) to discount prices. Brubaker looks like a promising pitcher whose perceived value is likely much lower than his potential value.

Cost: Twins top 30-20 prospect for JT Brubaker. Brubaker will be in his second year of arbitration and make $2-3M next season.

 

#4: Trevor Rogers

Time to get creative with the Marlins again! After tapping into the Marlins' deep rotation last offseason, why not do it again for another undervalued starter? Rogers posted a 2.64 ERA over 133.0 IP in his first full season and looked to be one of the bright stars the Marlins would build around. Unfortunately, a subpar 2022 and a 2023 lost to injury have derailed these plans. Miami also may be looking to sell off some pieces since their ace, Sandy Alcantara, will miss 2024 with TJ surgery. 

Rogers relies on a three-pitch mix of four-seam/changeup/slider. Before his injury this year, he mixed in a sinker, which moved very well and got good results, but his slider is a weak secondary pitch, and he needs to either improve it or develop another weapon to attack hitters with glove-side movement. Most of his 2022 struggles revolve around the inability for him to locate his four-seamer around the edges, with him throwing over the heart of the plate a lot. As seen in the images above, Rogers' four-seamer in '21 (on right) was thrown all over the zone, with a pretty even distribution of locations within the zone. This (partly) can help explain why his fastball by all metrics (spin rate/horizontal and vertical break) was better in '22 than the year before, yet got crushed (over .300 BA against). Rogers' injury was a shoulder tear in his right arm, which should not be that concerning.

Cost: Miami's offense was still bottom-5 this season, and they have a huge need for power bats. A package of post-hype Jose Miranda and Trevor Larnach could do the trick; otherwise, a prospect in the 10-5 range should be enough. Rogers is in his first year of arbitration and should make around $1.5-2.5M.

 

Conclusion:

The Twins have multiple rotation holes to fill, and they do not have the resources to fill every one of those spots with a top-of-the-line guy. They should be looking for value in some low-cost additions to ensure that the rotation remains as deep as it was this past season. While the discussions around Nola vs Snell vs Burnes vs Stroman vs Rodriguez vs Woodruff will be had, it's important to keep your eye on the available low-cost options. The Twins got lots of value from MAT, Farmer, Castro, and Solano this past year in the lineup, while Brock Stewart and Caleb Thielbar were both very under-the-radar signings in the bullpen. The rotation of Lopez/Ryan/Rodriguez/Ober/TBD, with the TBD being a competition between Varland, Paddack, and two of the names listed above, sounds very strong. Moving Paddack/Varland/TBD to the bullpen will also strengthen that unit. Lastly, the Twins have a lot of financial freedom this offseason, with very few players moving into arbitration years and a couple of big contracts (Gray, Polanco, Gallo, and potentially Kepler) moving off the books. They should not be shy about bringing in depth this offseason, especially the rotation.

[Nine of twelve]

No Trevor Bauer. Never ever. He is out of the box even if the box is the size of the earth.

[Muppet]

How about Sonny Gray, Pablo Lopez, Chris Paddack, Bailey Ober, and Louis Varland? The Twins batting champ hit .230 (big asterisks there) and 7/9 of the lineup put the exact same swing on every different pitch missing approximately 81 pitches per game in the ALDS. I don't think the team's largest chance to improve is in the pitching. 

[farmerguychris]

We all know how much this FO likes depth.  I can certainly see us signing someone like the above names as depth in hopes of turning their career around - and they may be able to do it!

[Cory Engelhardt]

I've always really felt Keller could be a great change of scenery type, and I forget how young he is.

I'm surprised you didn't mention someone like Michael Kopech. Not certain the White Sox move on, but his stuff is super intriguing as well with good coaching around him. 

Very much same with Lucas Giolito and Frankie Montas.

Otherwise, I do agree that a focus should be on bringing in at least one starter who is healthy and we can anticipate can give 160+ innings. I don't know if that means via trade or free agency, but the need is there. I am enthused on the young pitching that will be at AA and AAA to start next year, but I'd prefer to have the rotation be Lopez/Ryan/Ober/Paddack and an outside addition without HAVING to use the depth right away. I'm firmly in the camp that has Varland in the bullpen with his stuff playing up.

[stringer bell]

Even in a healthy season, clubs need 7-8 starters. The prospective rotation of López, Ryan, Paddack, Ober and Varland is a great start. Put me down for a lefty with more stuff than Keuchel and the return of Kenta Maeda. 
 

From the OP, I think Bauer and Rodón are out and any of the others could be added.  Also, it may be time for some on the farm to contribute. Triple A numbers seem skewed by extreme offense, but SWR finished strong and he still only 23. So is Henriquez, although I think he’s a bullpen arm. 

[ashbury]

Those free agent ideas are out of the box because they don't belong in a box.   Not in a discussion of starting pitching on a pennant contender anyway.  A minor league contract to Keller, sure, no risk and likely no reward; load up on a few of those, like every team in every year, just so long as room is left for genuine SP prospects at AAA.