Twins Pitcher of the Month: July 2023

[Steven Trefz]

In a month where the Twins went a disappointing 13-11, the pitching can be both thanked and blamed for the results. These were the pitchers that stood out above the crowd in a July that needed their best performances.

July exposed some chinks in the armor of the Minnesota pitching staff. Lights out starting pitching, and clutch bullpen work got replaced by inconsistent starting pitching and lost leads by the bullpen.

The Twins starters have struggled out of the All Star, posting an ERA over 5.00 and wasting some quality offensive outbursts by their teammates. The issues weren't contained to the starters, as the bullpen also lingered above the 5.00 ERA mark. Where were the bright spots amongst the Twins hurlers? 

Honorable Mention
Sonny Gray - 5 G, 4.85 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 29.2 IP, 25 H, 11 BB, 26 K
In the month of July, Gray won zero games in five starts. He averaged less than six innings a contest, and established a mediocre 4.85 ERA. Yet, when it came to WPA, Gray led all pitchers at 0.7. Why? Because for the most part Gray was able to escape jams, and keep his team in the bulk of his starts. In a month like this, that counts for something...but not much. Gray still hasn't won a game since April 30th. Let that sink in...15 starts without a victory. The Twins offense can be blamed for much of this streak, but not all of it.

July Pitchers of the Month
#4. Griffin Jax - 11 G, 2.61 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 10.1 IP, 7 H, 1 BB, 8 K
Why? Despite the Kolton Wong crushing blow (in a game the Twins won by the way), Jax stranded runners at a 93.8% clip, and gave the Twins four holds during a month when wins were hard to come by. 

Now, the two blown saves are an issue, and the fact that Jax cannot be counted upon to close a game puts extra pressure on Jhoan Duran, and the front office to find another fireman for the end of games. Keeping Griffin Jax where he's been successful will be a consistent theme of August's game plan.

#3. Kenta Maeda - 5 G, 2.93 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 27.2 IP, 20 H, 9 BB, 39 K
King Kenta found the fountain of youth after suffering through injury through the bulk of 2023 (not to mention the past few seasons of Tommy John recovery). His success can be attributed to the recovery of his filthy splitter.

Kenta Maeda can't be blamed for his loss on July 30th, and his resurgence provided both streak stoppers and streak starters throughout July. Will he still be a part of the rotation in the same capacity in August? The trade deadline and the status of Dallas Keuchel and Chris Paddack will help to answer this quandary.

#2. Emilio Pagan - 13 G, 1.50 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, 12.0 IP, 5 H, 3 BB, 11 K
The anti-Pagan movement will most likely never die, even after Paddack returns to the starting rotation to remind Twins territory that Pagan wasn't the only part of that pre-2022 trade. His results over the past month point to a different narrative, one where Pagan provides consistent and essential relief when the bullpen lives through some uncertain times.

Dubbed the "Paganaissance" by Lou Hennessey, Pagan's increased usage in high-leverage situations only met one rough ending, and Julio Rodriguez offers that result to many MLB pitchers. Will Pagan move into a key role during the homestretch of the season, or will some deadline trades allow him to continue to dominate in the run-of-the-mill settings that make up the bulk of his Twins success? Only time will tell, but his stock is currently trending up.

Winner: Bailey Ober - 5 G, 3.72 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 29 IP, 29 H, 3 BB, 29 K
In July, the Twins won three of Ober's five starts, and even in his debacle versus the Royals on the 29th, he managed to eat some innings and the Twins had a chance to win the game in the end. July saw Ober's name bandied about for the title of number one starter in the Twins rotation, and he has backed that designation up into the second half of the season.

Ober takes home the title of pitcher of the month, because the Twins need victories, and he provides the environment for victories start after start. His worst outing was his unluckiest as well, as his July 29th 0.357 xwOBA allowed paled in comparison to the 0.575 actual wOBA allowed. Did this loss to the Royals inspire confidence in Ober's ability to eliminate playoff-caliber teams down the stretch? No. Does the rest of his 2023 season and his start to July? Definitely. That's the best a Twins fan can hope for this season.

Congratulations to Ober on a solid month of July. The Twins are going to need Ober's first half of July to replicate itself down the stretch if they hope to reach any level of success as August turns to September.

What do you think? How would you rank your top Twins pitchers of July? Comment below.

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[Karbo]

I would have Maeda #2

[mikelink45]

It is sad to see Gray making the list - at the bottom.  He was such a good candidate to trade.  When I see all the prospects the White Sox accumulated, I wished we had nabbed one or two. Jax at 4 is also a reflection on how poor the pitching has been this month.  

Congratulations on looking past the Pagan hating (I am one who doesn't trust him) he deserved the rank.

Even ending the month with a clunker, Ober was a good choice.   I am surprised Lopez did not come in 3rd or 4th.

[HrbieFan]

Did Ober really only give up 4 hits in July? That seems highly unlikely 

[chinmusic]

I would have had  Pablo Lopez somewhere in the top 5

[Steven Trefz]

1 hour ago, HrbieFan said:

Did Ober really only give up 4 hits in July? That seems highly unlikely 

Good catch!  29 hits!  I agree, 4 hits would have cemented his spot at #1 😂

That 3 BB to 29 K line is real though...I didn't even catch how good that was the first time through the numbers.

[CRF]

I'm going to assume that it's not Ryan. 

[strumdatjag]

IF IF IF - The twins make the playoffs.  Based on today - what would be your pitching rotation?   Here is Mine - 

1.  Maeda

2. Ober

3. Lopez

4. Gray

5. Ryan

 I put Maeda over Ober only based on his longer experience  / it’s a close call.  At the beginning if the season, this list would have been in reverse. Go figure.