Twins Fantasy Fix (7/9): Will Twins Players Benefit from the All-Star Break

[Mike Rose]

As we head into the All-Star break, a number of Minnesota players need to hit the reset button. Will they be able to?

Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

It’s All-Star week, an excellent time to take stock of your fantasy team and focus on areas where you can improve. You benefit from having a few additional days to analyze your roster and make moves accordingly.

It might be tempting during this process to dump all your underperforming players. Get a clean slate to start the second half. While that makes sense in many instances, some first-half duds will undoubtedly be second-half stars. Identifying those players could be the key to winning your league.

From a Twins perspective, plenty of players have underperformed, particularly on offense. I’ve listed a handful of the most noteworthy ones below, then rated their likelihood of turning things around on a scale of 1-10, with 1 being no chance at a bounceback and ten a guaranteed big second half.

Byron Buxton (8): He’s had some fantasy value due to 15 home runs and eight stolen bases, but a low batting average has knocked him down a bit. I believe a big hot stretch is still in store for Buxton, and I think the opportunity to rest during the break rather than have to play in the All-Star Game will help him a ton.

Carlos Correa (7): I also still believe in Correa, but I’m less optimistic that rest alone will give him a big boost. I think he’s too talented to continue struggling, particularly with runners on base. Better luck will help, too: He’s had a batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of .300 or better the last four years, but he’s at .266 in 2023. If that improves, he could take off.

Max Kepler (4): Kepler has shown some signs of life lately, but I’m keeping his score lower because I’m not entirely sure what a bounceback looks like. I think it’s safe to say that his 2019 season was a bit of an aberration, and at this point, he may be a streaky player who alternates between dominant and frustrating. Expecting sustained success seems unlikely, but perhaps a few more good weeks are left in the tank.

Joey Gallo (1): I think it’s increasingly clear that Gallo’s early-season surge was a blip on the radar. After posting seven home runs and a 1.063 OPS through the end of April, he’s hit eight home runs and recorded a .662 OPS since then. He’ll continue to hit his share of moonshots, but he’s much too inconsistent for fantasy purposes, and I don’t see that changing.

Jorge Lopez (6): I’m unsure what to make of Lopez’s second-half prospects. After missing some time due to mental health reasons, he’s pitched in two games, allowing one run. Lopez has struggled this year overall, with a 4.97 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. The break could be another opportunity for him to reset, but there’s no guarantee that time away alone will fix his mound struggles. I’ll remain slightly optimistic for now, but I will need to see signs of progress in the next few weeks.

Let’s now look at some key injury updates, plus which Twins have their stock rising and falling from a fantasy perspective due to results from the past week and a prospect to keep an eye on. I’ll also look at the (short) week ahead and highlight some matchups to target and avoid.

Twins Injury Updates
Royce Lewis
Expected return: Mid-August or later

Lewis was diagnosed with a Grade 2 oblique strain, which could keep him out of action for six weeks. Jose Miranda remains on the roster, though the Twins may continue to alternate players at third base.

Brock Stewart
Expected return: Mid-July

Stewart hit the injured list toward the end of June with some tendinitis in his right elbow. Manager Rocco Baldelli said the righty could be back “soon” after the break, so his return shouldn’t be too far off. 

Jorge Polanco
Expected return: July or later

Polanco recently began making more high-intensity sprints as he recovers from a hamstring strain. Perhaps a rehab stint could be on tap shortly after the break, with a return coming later this month, but nothing has been announced.

Stock Rising: Pablo Lopez
ESPN Ownership: 95%

The newly named first-time All-Star had his best game with the Twins, twirling nine shutout innings with 12 strikeouts. That continued an excellent recent stretch for the righty, who has a 2.72 ERA and 52 strikeouts across his last six starts (39 2/3 innings). The strikeouts, in particular, are boosting his fantasy value, and he’s now third in the majors in that category, behind Spencer Strider and Kevin Gausman. Expect Lopez to continue trending upward in the second half.

Stock Falling: Jhoan Duran
ESPN Ownership: 44%

I’m not hitting the panic button quite yet, but Duran has allowed runs in his last two appearances entering Sunday and in three of his last six outings. The recent stretch shows he’s human and has put a little dent in his stellar ratios, where he derives a decent amount of his fantasy value. However, I think the break helps him, and he gets back to dominating soon, sending his stock back in a positive direction. 

Prospect Spotlight: Simeon Woods Richardson (Current team: St. Paul)
Woods Richardson has a rough 6.79 ERA overall for the Saints, though he’s been better lately, posting a 3.07 ERA over his last three starts. He’s made one appearance for the Twins each of the last two years but has yet to get a real shot to stick, which makes sense, given the team’s rotation depth. Woods Richardson is still an exciting prospect and is probably ready for the majors if an opportunity presents itself. That won’t happen in 2023 without injuries to Minnesota’s current starters, so Woods Richardson is worth keeping in mind, but he’s not an immediate fantasy target. 

Upcoming Week Matchup Notes
3 Games vs. Oakland (Paul Blackburn, JP Sears, Hogan Harris)
It’s a short week for the Twins and an inviting one at that, as Oakland has been at the bottom of the standings all season. The Athletics are last in runs scored and team ERA. Lopez, Joe Ryan, and Sonny Gray are all in good spots to succeed in their starts.

Twins Fantasy Hitters to Watch
Minnesota hitters don’t have much history against Blackburn, Sears, or Harris to conclude from. Harris looks like the best one to target, with a 6.07 ERA.

I’ll be most interested to see the lineup coming out of the break and then react accordingly. Correa has recently seen time in the leadoff spot in an effort to get him going, and he’s had some success. Edouard Julien has also increasingly looked like a solid everyday player, at least against righties, and I like his prospects if he continues to hit second behind Correa.

Gallo is also worth watching, as he’s been on the bench more often lately, even against righties. The team’s patience seems to be wearing thin, and a move to Trevor Larnach or Matt Wallner could be in store when play resumes. 

Finally, Donovan Solano has forced his way into the lineup most days. He’s batting just under .300 since the beginning of June and is particularly impactful against southpaws. In daily leagues, I like building an affordable stack with Solano, Buxton, and Correa when the Twins face mediocre lefties. Sears and Harris both fall into that category. 

Do you think any Minnesota players are due for second-half rebounds? Let me know in the COMMENTS, plus post your thoughts on the matchups this week.

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[weitz41]

Of course, they can. Will they? They are by far the best team in my notebook. But due to their lack of professional at bats bad teams win divisions too. If they decide to be professionals at their professions...It could be fun to watch.

[tony&rodney]

11 hours ago, weitz41 said:

lack of professional at bats

On the surface this is a damning statement which seemingly ignores the long hours of work put in by the players to be major league baseball athletes. My usual reaction is to think that fans are way too quick to criticize their team or individual players, especially in baseball where a long season brings series of low points for any team and player. However, ....

This Twins team has had some lengthy lulls that fairly point to a "lack of professional at bats". Look for the number of hacktastic swings that ignore all situational aspects in hopes of hitting a home run. Look for how often a player swings at the first pitch after a pitcher has thrown something like 6-9 consecutive balls or there is a runner on base who might look to steal. Look for a player getting lost because an umpire made a poor call on the first pitch. Look for a ball middle away fully in the strike zone that a batter attempts to pull. Look at the number of swings at pitches more than 8 inches out of the strike zone. The Twins have had stretches of games where good at bats still resulted in outs and games that ended with a loss, yet there have been way too many stretches where individuals have gone to the batter's box aimlessly, which is actually somewhat unfair to say or type. The simple fact is that the Twins need to have a much more disciplined approach at the plate, one that is aware of the aspects of the game (pitcher, count, weather, defense, inning, score, runners, etc.). 

The Twins could also vary their strategies. If a batter leads off with a double in the first half of a low scoring (less than 4 runs) game, move that runner over. Fans should not expect a team to suddenly never strike out, but the pace of strike outs is indicative of an approach. Earlier in the season (May), the Giants were right with the Twins in strike outs and they have made very modest improvements which have resulted in an improved record. We saw the Braves cut down on their swing with two strikes all up and down the lineup and often on the first pitch when given a pitch to drive the other way with runners on base. 

I'm not privy to what effect the hitting coaches have on at bats, so can not call for a change in dugout management. Falvey, however, should be able to recognize at this point that there needs to be at least a couple of player personal moves. It is his job. 

More of the same will not bring a positive result. Beginning in Oakland and sustained throughout the remainder of the schedule, the Twins needs to be continually focus on game situations and the offense will need to have consistent professional at bats. 

[Craig Arko]

Hope so.

[Nine of twelve]

In the case of Gallo and Kepler I think taking a break would be so beneficial that their time off should continue until they are picked up by another team.