Rambling on a Saturday Morning

[stringer bell]

I'm an old guy waiting on my third joint replacement surgery in the last seven months, so when the Twins aren't on TV, I spend a lot of time reading about the Twins and I have a chance to try to organize my thoughts about my favorite team.

My weekly check of MLB stats shows little change from last week. The Twins are still 14th in runs scored and 2nd (fewest) in runs allowed. The Twins +48 run differential is fourth best in the American League, trailing Tampa, Texas and Houston. Pitching team stats are off the charts good. First in strikeouts opponents on-base, second in ERA, runs allowed, WHIP and top ten in (fewest) walks allowed and (fewest) homers allowed. The Twins have (I believe) a better HR differential than they did in 2019 (prorated). I couldn't find the numbers, but I believe the Twins are at the top or close in starting pitcher innings and quality starts.

Most of these numbers have changed little since a week ago, but i (and all of Twins Nation I suspect) am far more optimistic after the team defeated Houston two of three in Houston and won the first two games of the Cleveland series. Winning papers over disturbing trends and flaws and two pretty dramatic wins really help in the standings and the psyche. 

The return to immediate star status of Royce Lewis and the continued strong play of Alex Kirilloff have been two of the biggest reasons for optimism. Lewis' contributions are hard to underestimate. A guy who hasn't played 20 games in the majors came up with two HUGE hits, a tying single off relief ace Ryan Pressly and a 420 ft. game-tying homer against Cleveland setup man Trevor Stephan. Kirilloff has been on base well over half the time, continually taking good at bats and showing no evidence of wrist problems that cost him most of the last two seasons. 

Many others have chipped in. Jhoan Dúran flashed 105 mph heaters last night and got five outs to secure a victory. Against the Astros, he worked two innings and got the win after Ryan Jeffers hit a two-run homer. Jeffers has been very good, both behind the plate and in the batter's box. Willi Castro plays everywhere, gets some hits, steals bases and got a huge walk off sacrifice fly Thursday night. Jorge Polanco gets key hits. Donovan Solano has shown his worth as a pinch hitter and right hand platoon guy. The rotation has been outstanding, even "bad" starts are not really bad and Bailey Ober just gave the Twins six scoreless innings last night.

Am I satisfied? Of course not. We all want more. It is reasonable to expect much more from some of the highest paid players--Buxton is hitting .220 with an OPS below .800 and only DHing. Pablo López has had more off nights than good ones since inking a rich extension and Jorge López again seems broken. Joey Gallo is in his second major slump and is less the 100% due to a nagging hamstring. Team leader and supposed superstar Carlos Correa has been a huge disappointment and is dealing with an ominous foot issue. An uptick from most or all of these players should make up for any regression from those who have done well.

Lastly, I'd like to see more from Lewis and Kirilloff. Royce has hit homers and flashed admirable leather. I'd like to see him hit balls in gaps and steal bases. AK keeps getting on and rises to the occasion in big situations, but I'd like to see more power. He homered twice in the first week and has only hit one (barely) over the fence since. Rather than making opposing pitchers pay for a mistake by hitting a single, I'd like to see him drive the ball more. I believe it is in Kirilloff and Lewis to be perennial All-Stars and have to remind myself how little they've played after each missed most of the last two years due to injury. 

 

 

[Linus]

Nice summary. It would be interesting to see the pitching numbers for starters only. The bullpen has been a frustration but Thielbars return should help a lot. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

12 hours ago, Linus said:

Nice summary. It would be interesting to see the pitching numbers for starters only. The bullpen has been a frustration but Thielbars return should help a lot. 

Fangraphs splits tool does that.

here’s Bullpen ranks by WHIP, Twins are 10th

 

here it is by WPA, Twins rank 15 and is in aggregate positive, which tells me the bullpen might not be blowing it as much as it feels. They’re around 500, so WPA wouldn’t be really high. 

Twins starters are 3rd in WHIP

 

4th in ERA

First in WAR

 

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Oh, and Thielbar’s return should help alot

 

[Linus]

Interesting. Bullpen numbers are better than I expected. 

[stringer bell]

I'll add this item here and bump my earlier post. The Twins have only two players that average 3.1 plate appearances or more per game, the amount of plate appearances required to be considered for leadership in rate statistics like batting average, slugging and OPS.  No other team has less than four. Why is this? Most injuries, I guess--here's a walk around the diamond:

First base--Joey Gallo started here and Alex Kirilloff has gotten the majority of at-bats since he was activated. Gallo has played in the outfield and most likely will continue there, but he is on his second IL stint. Second base--long time regular Jorge Polanco also started on the IL and has had a subsequent IL stint. Shortstop--Correa is the starter and is qualified, but has been dogged by a foot injury. Third base--Jose Miranda started at third, but was demoted. Kyle Farmer replaced Miranda until Royce Lewis came off the IL. Lewis has 25 at-bats, but looks like he'll get the bulk of third base at-bats going forward. Left field--Trevor Larnach started there and has the most time there. He was optioned briefly to AAA and now is on the Injured List, due to return any time. Center Field--Michael A Taylor has the majority of starts in center, but hits in the bottom of the lineup and has been pinch hit for frequently. Right Field--Max Kepler started the season there, but has two Injured List stints. He's also hitting under .200 and is a replacement candidate. Catcher--Christian Vázquez and Ryan Jeffers have shared catching, with neither averaging much more than two plate appearances per game. DH--Despite missing the last three games, Byron Buxton has enough plate appearances to qualify.