Twins Fantasy Fix (5/26): The First Third Check-in

[Mike Rose]

Some Twins have defied preseason predictions.

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

 

Happy Memorial Day weekend, Twins fans! As you’re reading this, I’m probably hiking somewhere around Bemidji. I hope you’re able to have a fun and relaxing weekend with family and friends.

I also want to thank everyone who has read Twins Fantasy Fix so far. It’s been a blast writing about the Twins from a fantasy perspective, and I hope you have enjoyed these articles.

For this holiday weekend, I thought it’d be a good time to check in on the big picture when it comes to Minnesota fantasy performance. Game 54, which will be on Monday against Houston, will officially put us a third of the way through the season. Here’s who I’ve got as the team’s best performers so far alongside my preseason predictions.

Offensive MVP: Byron Buxton
Preseason pick: Buxton
Buxton has been good if not great, but that’s enough to get the nod here. The Twins have been inconsistent on offense, and other contenders in this area have either gotten off to slow starts (Carlos Correa) or not played enough (Jorge Polanco and Alex Kirilloff).

While Buxton is only batting .238, his .832 OPS helps offset that, and he’s managed 10 home runs and six stolen bases in 45 games. The most encouraging thing is that he hasn’t gone on the injured list yet (knocks on wood), so the Twins’ plan to use him exclusively as a DH has to be considered a success so far. Fans can debate how big of a loss it is not having Buxton in center field, but fantasy managers shouldn’t care as long as he stays healthy because Buxton should have outfield eligibility in most formats. He’s currently the eighth ranked outfielder in ESPN leagues, and if he stays on the field, more good numbers should come, especially if he can get that average up a bit.

Pitching MVP: Joe Ryan
Preseason pick: Jhoan Duran
This was a harder choice, as the Twins have gotten excellent pitching so far, at least from the starting staff. The bullpen has been a bit dicier, but Duran (and Jorge Lopez, until recently) has been good, so I’m not feeling too bad about my preseason pick. Duran has a 1.47 ERA, 24 strikeouts in 18 1/3  innings and leads the team with seven saves. 

All that said, this ultimately comes down to two players at the moment in my mind: Ryan and Sonny Gray. The latter leads the MLB in ERA (1.82), but Ryan isn’t far behind (2.21) and he’s ahead of Gray in wins, strikeouts and WHIP. Ryan is actually second in the majors with seven wins, and his 70 strikeouts are good for ninth. Wins can be tricky to chase in fantasy, but Ryan’s 2.32 FIP suggests that he can keep up the solid work and be a top-line fantasy contributor the rest of the way. Considering that he wasn’t a particularly high draft pick in most leagues, fantasy players who have him have to be ecstatic about their return on investment so far.

Sleeper: Bailey Ober
Preseason pick: Max Kepler
Kepler is currently out with a hamstring injury and was inconsistent while in the lineup, so Ober is an easy pick here. He was in St. Paul to start the season, and while Minnesota fans probably expected to see him at some point, fantasy players can be excused for not having the righty on their radars.

However, he’s been excellent since joining the rotation in place of an injured Kenta Maeda. Across six starts, Ober has a 2.55 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 30 strikeouts in 35 1/3 innings. Maeda should return at some point, but with Tyler Mahle lost for the year, Ober should have a rotation spot locked up for the foreseeable future. He had some MLB success in 2021 and 2022 as well, so this production isn’t coming completely out of the blue. Ober is currently owned in around 37% of ESPN leagues, which is up significantly from early April. If he continues to pitch like this, that number should continue to climb.

Super sleeper: Brock Stewart
Preseason pick: Edouard Julien
Julien did make his MLB debut and has shown flashes of potential with three home runs and a .864 OPS across 46 at-bats. However, it’s unclear if he’ll stick in the majors when Polanco returns. Julien is definitely worth keeping tabs on in fantasy leagues, particularly keeper or dynasty formats, but his short-term outlook remains murky.

Stewart is my pick here because he’s come out of nowhere to become a significant contributor for Minnesota. He’s yet to allow an earned run over 14 appearances, has struck out 15 across 14 innings, and even picked up his first career save since 2017 this weekend. His 11 walks are way too many, and he’ll have to exhibit better control if he wants to sustain his success, but it’s hard to argue with a 0.00 ERA. As I wrote about last week, Stewart probably isn’t worth owning in most leagues quite yet, but if anything happens to Duran, or if Lopez continues his downward trend, he becomes way more interesting. For now, Stewart has probably leapfrogged Griffin Jax in the Twins’ bullpen pecking order.

Who have been your Minnesota fantasy MVPs and sleepers so far? Let me know in the COMMENTS, plus share your outlook for Twins players the rest of the way.

 

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[rv78]

It's funny that Buxton is considered the teams offensive MVP. He surely can't be consider for it defensively. And his .230 batting average is one of the teams best. Let's take a quick look at most of the hitters the FO has bet on this season to be difference makers. The Twins getting paid big money and their respective BA this year. Correa (($33.3M) .215, Buxton ($15.1M) .230, Gallo ($11M) .203, Vazquez ($10M) .227, Kepler ($8.5M) .212, Polanco ($7.5M) .284, Farmer ($5.6M) .275, Taylor ($4.5M) .212. Is it any wonder why this team struggles to score runs when they don't hit HR's. Outside of Polanco and Farmer, who have been hurt, the rest of them can't hit.

[mikelink45]

I would give the batting MVP to Farmer.  He has come through in a variety of ways not just the three true outcomes.

[DJL44]

19 hours ago, rv78 said:

The Twins getting paid big money and their respective BA this year.  Polanco ($7.5M) .284, Farmer ($5.6M) .275

I'm surprised you included them since they both have good batting averages. Polanco would be in the top 40 if he had enough plate appearances to qualify.

[Mike Rose]

I hear the concern on batting average, and it is a weak spot for Buxton right now, both in real and fantasy baseball. But he’s been a better fantasy asset than Kyle Farmer — home runs and steals help.