Nick Gordon heading to the IL

[dxpavelka]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

And I'd replace him with Lewis as well. My stance is that Royce Lewis would be in CF any day Byron Buxton isn't in CF for the foreseeable future. Now there's a number of variables that can change that for this season, but as a general plan for the CF position those would be the 2 guys I want there.

There is a huge disconnect between "wanting" those 2 guys in CF and those two guys being  in CF  being the best plan.  That's why they're not out there and quite possibly won't be for most of the season even the going forward part of it.

[chpettit19]

9 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

There is a huge disconnect between "wanting" those 2 guys in CF and those two guys being  in CF  being the best plan.  That's why they're not out there and quite possibly won't be for most of the season even the going forward part of it.

I have no idea if not playing Buxton in CF at all is the best idea. I understand the thought behind it. But if he can't even play 1 game a week there at all this year this team is drastically different than it could be.

And I have no reason to believe there's any medical reason to not put Royce Lewis in CF. The only debate about him out there, as far as I'm concerned, is whether him in CF is better for getting the best overall team on the field, or of him at 3B is better. I see way more options at 3B than I do CF so I'd put him in CF.

[Riverbrian]

5 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

My thoughts on the current 13 man hitter roster, player by player: (ordered by highest to lowest wRC+)

Kirilloff: 186 wRC+ should be currently locked into a lineup spot everyday. Fine playing him at 1B, LF, RF

Gallo: 144 wRC+ should be currently locked into a lineup spot everyday. Fine playing him at 1B, LF, RF

Buxton: 129 wRC+ should be currently locked into a lineup spot everyday. The real challenge is they won't put him in CF (no idea if that's the right decision or not, but it's most definitely not ideal)

Jeffers: 129 wRC+ should be in an even split with Vazquez. Fine playing him at C.

Farmer: 128 wRC+ should be playing everyday to find out if he can actually hit righties this year. Fine playing him anywhere in the IF, never seen him in cOF so not sure on that.

Polanco: 124 wRC+ should be locked into a lineup spot everyday. Fine playing him at 2B, and wouldn't cry if he spot started at SS.

Larnach: 103 wRC+ I'd play him everyday for a week and see if he's found his swing again like he has the last couple games. Fine playing him in LF or RF.

Solano: 95 wRC+ I'd keep him in his current "only hits against lefties" for the rest of the month, and send him out for Lewis. Fine with him playing 2B and 1B, even though it's not ideal, they're his only options with Buxton at DH.

MAT: 91 wRC+ I'd like him in defensive replacement/pinch runner role, with spot starts to give a guy a day if needed. Fine with him in the OF anywhere.

Garlick: 82 wRC+ I don't think short side platoon, negative base runner, negative fielder players have any spot on any roster, unless it's the playoffs and you know you're running with your core 9 guys and have a MAT type player to immediately replace him after an AB

Correa: 80 wRC+ Has to play everyday. Simply needs to get his act together. No idea how you decide when to pull the plug on your newly re-signed cornerstone player.

Castro: 77 wRC+ I like him as a pinch runner, super-utility backup used sparingly, and not as some sort of true platoon. Fine with him playing any position but catcher.

Vazquez: 72 wRC+ I'd split him 50/50 with Jeffers because I believe he plays a real role in the pitching success.

So I have 7 "everyday" guys for right now, plus the C timeshare. I know we disagree on some defensive things, and I have much higher standards for who I'd put in up-the-middle defensive spots. To me the obvious opening is CF, and Buxton would go a long ways to fixing that. Then you call up Julien, or whoever, and see what they can do. But, to me, every other spot is filled with guys who either deserve to play based on current performance (Farmer, Gallo, Kirilloff), you need to see if they've figured it out (Larnach), are your core (Buxton, Correa, Polanco), or are the catchers. Their problem continues to be that they're full of corner defenders, and have no answer for Buxton not playing CF. Thoughts?

Kirilloff - Agreed... I'm hoping this the type of hitter that can help turn us around. I'm good with him at 1B, LF, RF and DH but I will add this to yours: He can play 6 out of 7 games to give others playing time so we don't get clogged up with too many left handed corner outfielders and... and... under no circumstances is he to be a strict platoon. He faces lefthanders until he shows that he shouldn't face them. If it is determined that he shouldn't face lefthanders. He isn't what we need. We are not developing a platoon hitter here... We are developing a top of the order bat that can play at least 6 out of 7 games and his time is now in the context of the current team and in regards to how many options he has left. Can't screw around with this guy.  

Gallo - Kinda Agree... He appears to be streaky... If the ball is flying out the park on his way to 40 home runs... put his name in the lineup... again 6 out of 7 days is fine with me to give others playing time but let's be clear... if he's in one of those 0 for 28 funks. He can play less... like 5 out of 7 days or 4 out of 7 days to feed some playing time to others. In a nutshell he has unmistakable power and the way this offense is performing we will need his 2 run home runs even if 3 K's surround it. I love watching him play. He plays hard, he's aggressive on the bases and he's a great defender. I thought I would regret his signing... I don't regret his signing at all. 

Buxton - I don't know what to do here and I'm not qualified to suggest what to do here. As long as he is the DH... He almost hurts the team as much as he helps it. Whatever we gain keeping him on the field in the DH position is almost completely lost by losing the DH spot to someone who could be a better hitter and turning Taylor who is a below average hitter into an every day player. You take two body blow to deliver one punch. It's easy for me to say... if he can run hard and dive into 1B to beat out an infield single against the Dodgers that he can run hard and catch a ball in CF but... I have to trust the medicals which I wouldn't know how to read if I had access to them. All I can do is pray that he finds himself in CF soon to un-bottleneck the DH position. 9 out of 10 days is fine with me as CF/DH combo...  5 out of 7 if he is a DH only.

Jeffers - Two out of three games at the moment. We need offense... his is better at the moment. I reserve the right to switch him back to 1 out of 3 games if Vazquez starts to hit while Jeffers declines. What happens to his trade value if he continues to hit like he has and is playing two out of three games. Catchers have insane trade value. This adjustment should have been done yesterday just in case Jeffers is what he has been. Not making this switch is way too auto-pilot for me. 

Farmer - Here is an example of what I often talk about. Farmer didn't reach the majors until age 26 and he barely played until he was 30. He was a throw in in a 7 player deal as the Dodgers were cleaning out the closet. When he got that playing time it was at SS despite playing a total of 84 innings and he did alright. Farmer is an average player and that's OK with me... He's Trevor Plouffe. Decent player but not the guy who stops Miguel Sano from playing 3B because we got Plouffe production and we don't ask for anything more. He's the guy who is going to get some of that playing time from players that are playing 6 out 7 games in my system and those games will add up to decent playing time. He's the guy who pushes the guy in front of him at 3B, SS, 2B and the OF. He's the guy who gets more playing time if the guy in front of him is hitting .210. Not a starter... Not Bench... Just an important guy to have on your roster that can help you win games. Don't let him rust.... Keep him sharp. Utility... Almost Super Utility. 

Polanco - 6 out of 7 games. 2B primarily... wouldn't mind him playing some DH to let a Julien play some 2B on occasion or get Farmer into a game and if the team context changes and his playing some SS would help the team. The world will not collapse. 

Larnach - If he is on the roster... Play him 6 out 7 or 5 out of 7 but let's be clear. He has two options remaining. He is competing for those 6 out of 7 or 5 out of 7. If he is losing that battle to Kirilloff, Kepler, Wallner, Julien, Gallo... anyone... then down to the minors he goes. No one can compete for a job without playing time so give him playing time. If he is on the roster... he is allowed to compete. If Wallner is on the roster... he is allowed to compete with Larnach. The loser wins a trip to St. Paul. Let the players decide. I certainly don't the front office to say (Any front office... the margins are too thin)... this is the guy and then throw all of those eggs in that basket with a Minnesota or bust sign on the back of the truck. The players decide with performance. Hedge your bets. Letting a player struggle until he stops struggling is a bad idea and it keeps you out of the playoffs. 

Solano - None of this is his fault. When we needed him due to injuries he stepped up and hit right handers and left handers alike. Everything was fine with Solano until we got healthy. However... I'm losing interest and I'm losing interest fast. The theme with me should be apparent... If the strong side of the platoon is struggling, I could care less about the weak side. If I'm given a choice between fixing 75% playing time or 25% playing time. I'm choosing the 75% every time. For the time being... I'm giving him more playing time because I think it is possible that he could out produce some of the 75% crew but in order to do that... I'd like to see Buxton get out of the way at the DH position. DH, 2B, 1B are the positions that I would spoon feed him some time. 

Taylor - He's OK... He's a good defensive CF... He can run into one every once in awhile and help a team on any given day but this isn't Mike Trout and shouldn't get playing time like he is. This is one of those situations where I didn't have a problem with the Gordon/Taylor strict platoon. That platoon made sense to me while I was wishing that Buxton would just wipe it off the face of the earth with a triumphant return to CF. Every other day in the lineup... all three outfield positions are fine with me. 

Garlick - I'm done with him. I apologize to him because I don't believe it is his fault, he was never given a chance to be anything but a short side platoon specialist but that is what he is now and I have no use for him at all. He will not be allowed to be the solution. He has no value... if you took him off the 40 man roster... he won't be claimed. He's just a guy who is occupying a valuable 26 man spot on a team that should be given to someone else who could be the solution in time. 

Correa - Just to show that I'm not a total "What me worry about defense guy". Yeah... Correa should play 6 out 7 games just because of his defense alone at that position and we will have to be patient for him to add the offense that his contract promised to us. But let's be honest... what he has provided us thus far. Can anyone say that we wouldn't have been better off with a Schmitt, Duran, Rodolfo Castro or Perdomo so far. C'mon Correa... get it together quickly. If given the choice... I would sign him again but that's a lot of money being spent for below average. 

Castro - He is not necessary at all. This team does not have the offensive talent to reserve space for a late game defensive replacement or late game pinch runner. Those skills are great when you have a 1 through 9. We don't have that and we need to quit acting like we do. What's the point of subbing Castro at second to start the 10th inning when the lineup isn't capable of moving him along anyway. I'd call up Julien instead of Garlick... Julien can run. When Kepler comes back... Castro is the guy sent to AAA. If Miranda is leading the team in AB's before he is sent down. That means... that no matter how bad it gets with Miranda... the manager is not going to turn to Castro. He is not going to be allowed to help so he simply doesn't matter. Bottom of the pile is where you start when it comes to making yourself better. Castro is the bottom of the pile. 

Vaquez - 1 out of 3. He needs to find that bat to reverse this back.    

 

 

[Squirrel]

You guys really know how to threadjack AND write novels in one fell swoop! 🙂

[Jocko87]

8 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Why do the high school lefties carry less value now and the future? If either of them turns out to be Corbin Carroll I'd think it'd be pretty valuable, no?

A CFer who can field and hit is lightyears more valuable than a 2B or 3B who can. And Lewis has been very good out there. Go watch his AFL tape, and even the play he got hurt on. If Lewis is Buxton 2.0 this team would have a way bigger advantage than if he's Polanco 2.0.

Agreed, but they would be in the mix at 1-1 in that case.  Clark may stick in center, he may grow out of it in a year.  Carroll was the 16th pick. Hindsight would have him 2-5 not getting ahead of Rutshman for anyone and not ahead of Witt for me.  I’m taking the shortstop almost every time. It’s a personal philosophy in general and I believe fits the next 3-5 years for the roster better.  In this case I want the college RH outfielder or an ace.  Mayo’s new mock yesterday had both high schoolers gone with the Twins getting Langford. To me, that’s like Lee falling to 8.

Don’t limit our comps to the Twins players with Lewis. He still has a path to Machado or Altuve 2.0 which is more valuable than Buxton 2.0.  They should take that path until it runs out. He doesn’t move for Miranda.  

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Agreed, but they would be in the mix at 1-1 in that case.  Clark may stick in center, he may grow out of it in a year.  Carroll was the 16th pick. Hindsight would have him 2-5 not getting ahead of Rutshman for anyone and not ahead of Witt for me.  I’m taking the shortstop almost every time. It’s a personal philosophy in general and I believe fits the next 3-5 years for the roster better.  In this case I want the college RH outfielder or an ace.  Mayo’s new mock yesterday had both high schoolers gone with the Twins getting Langford. To me, that’s like Lee falling to 8.

Don’t limit our comps to the Twins players with Lewis. He still has a path to Machado or Altuve 2.0 which is more valuable than Buxton 2.0.  They should take that path until it runs out. He doesn’t move for Miranda.  

It's pretty widely accepted that the 5 guys at the top of this draft would likely all have been the first overall pick last year if they were in that class. Whichever guy they end up with will immediately be their #1 prospect. But to each their own. Best player available is the only way to draft in baseball. Roster need/fit shouldn't play into it in any way. Way too much can change in 3-5 years.

Yeah, we'll just have to agree to disagree that a fully healthy Buxton isn't more valuable than Machado or Altuve. The last 2 seasons CF has been the 2nd worst hitting position in the league. A superstar bat that can also play CF is more valuable than a superstar bat that plays at a bat first position. 2B is maybe becoming less bat first now that they've limited the shifts, though, I will concede that.

I'm not moving Lewis for Miranda in the sense that Miranda is better than Lewis, I'm moving Lewis to CF because they have nobody else who can play CF and hit (unless they're going to put Buxton back there), but they likely have other guys who can play 3B and hit. It's not about just Miranda vs Lewis, it's about the complete team setup. Without Buxton, CF is way more of a hole than 3B. Especially if Lee is who we think/hope he is. And if Julien hits like we hope he's way better than any CF option they have so 2B is less of a hole than CF as well. But I don't think ERod sticks in CF, and I think he's still 2 years away, and you may view him differently. But for this year and next, I don't see anyone else on the roster who can play CF, but I see multiple options at 3B and 2B. So I'd let Lewis be a star in CF.

[Jocko87]

30 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

It's pretty widely accepted that the 5 guys at the top of this draft would likely all have been the first overall pick last year if they were in that class. Whichever guy they end up with will immediately be their #1 prospect. But to each their own. Best player available is the only way to draft in baseball. Roster need/fit shouldn't play into it in any way. Way too much can change in 3-5 years.

Yeah, we'll just have to agree to disagree that a fully healthy Buxton isn't more valuable than Machado or Altuve. The last 2 seasons CF has been the 2nd worst hitting position in the league. A superstar bat that can also play CF is more valuable than a superstar bat that plays at a bat first position. 2B is maybe becoming less bat first now that they've limited the shifts, though, I will concede that.

I'm not moving Lewis for Miranda in the sense that Miranda is better than Lewis, I'm moving Lewis to CF because they have nobody else who can play CF and hit (unless they're going to put Buxton back there), but they likely have other guys who can play 3B and hit. It's not about just Miranda vs Lewis, it's about the complete team setup. Without Buxton, CF is way more of a hole than 3B. Especially if Lee is who we think/hope he is. And if Julien hits like we hope he's way better than any CF option they have so 2B is less of a hole than CF as well. But I don't think ERod sticks in CF, and I think he's still 2 years away, and you may view him differently. But for this year and next, I don't see anyone else on the roster who can play CF, but I see multiple options at 3B and 2B. So I'd let Lewis be a star in CF.

If they could all be 1-1 the mocks reflect my value proposition for the most part. College players have less unknowns and less risk. I am trying to draft best player available as well but I’m not a scout so I have to use a valuation method. I would take a long hard look at a Jack Wilson before I took Clark or Jenkins based solely on positional flexibility. Of course that becomes a scouting question but I’m trying to pick as close to a sure major league regular as possible in the 1st round.  I wouldn’t even consider someone who is already a first baseman.  Bringing it back to the thread topic, the only reason Nick Gordon made the big leagues is that he started as a SS. I would not have drafted him out of HS, college maybe.

I agree, roster fit is the wrong term.  They should absolutely be looking at competitive windows, balancing asset categories and projecting timeframes. They are absolutely overloaded with LH hitting outfielders throughout the system.

As for Buxton and Lewis, a healthy one of either doesn’t exist yet. A healthy Buxton is on planet Trout and in a completely different category. I’m comparing actual Buxton, a 4-5 war 100m salary building block. I’m not against Lewis in center but I’m very against treating him like a utility player. Move him with purpose in the off-season if it has to be done. 

[dxpavelka]

5 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I have no idea if not playing Buxton in CF at all is the best idea. I understand the thought behind it. But if he can't even play 1 game a week there at all this year this team is drastically different than it could be.

And I have no reason to believe there's any medical reason to not put Royce Lewis in CF. The only debate about him out there, as far as I'm concerned, is whether him in CF is better for getting the best overall team on the field, or of him at 3B is better. I see way more options at 3B than I do CF so I'd put him in CF.

10 career games in the outfield, eight of those in center doesn't exactly scream outfielder to me.  A lot easier to move from a career SS to 2B or 3B than CF.

[chpettit19]

41 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

If they could all be 1-1 the mocks reflect my value proposition for the most part. College players have less unknowns and less risk. I am trying to draft best player available as well but I’m not a scout so I have to use a valuation method. I would take a long hard look at a Jack Wilson before I took Clark or Jenkins based solely on positional flexibility. Of course that becomes a scouting question but I’m trying to pick as close to a sure major league regular as possible in the 1st round.  I wouldn’t even consider someone who is already a first baseman.  Bringing it back to the thread topic, the only reason Nick Gordon made the big leagues is that he started as a SS. I would not have drafted him out of HS, college maybe.

I agree, roster fit is the wrong term.  They should absolutely be looking at competitive windows, balancing asset categories and projecting timeframes. They are absolutely overloaded with LH hitting outfielders throughout the system.

As for Buxton and Lewis, a healthy one of either doesn’t exist yet. A healthy Buxton is on planet Trout and in a completely different category. I’m comparing actual Buxton, a 4-5 war 100m salary building block. I’m not against Lewis in center but I’m very against treating him like a utility player. Move him with purpose in the off-season if it has to be done. 

Oh, I'd prefer any of the big 3 college players over the HS kids as well, but those 5 overall have ceilings significantly higher than anyone else in the draft, and the Twins passing on Clark or Jenkins would be a massive disappointment. I would've taken Jackson Holliday over Lee last year if it'd been possible. HS arms in the top 10? Never. But elite position players out of HS have pretty solid hit rates these days with all the Team USA, and summer circuits they play. Positional flexibility can come into play if the prospects are in the same tier, but they aren't. The top 5 are on a different level, and passing up a possible superstar because they're a CFer instead of a SS should get the FO fired. If Gordon had started as a CFer he'd still have made the big leagues. I wouldn't have drafted him out of HS either, but it's because he wasn't a good enough prospect to draft him in the top 10 like they did.

They shouldn't. There should be no concern at all about competitive windows or balancing asset categories when you're picking in the top 5. None at all. Take the best player available. Jenkins and Clark have higher ceilings than anyone in the system. Taking a B prospect SS or C or SP because your system is weaker there instead of taking an A level OF is bad asset management. If you end up with 5 LH OF All Stars trade a couple for whatever else you need. It's all about collecting the most talent possible. Figure out the rest later.

I'm sorry for being unclear with what I was comparing Lewis to. I was simply saying a 5 tool center fielder is more valuable than a Machado or Altuve. I really hope he's not a 90 game a year guy like Buxton. That'd be soul crushing. I don't know why they'd wait for the off-season to move Lewis if the bigger hole to fill this season is CF. If they have better players to cover 3B and 2B (Farmer, Miranda, Polanco, Julien) than CF (Taylor and Castro), I don't get why they'd play the season with the better IFers on the bench and Taylor or Castro in CF. Royce is no seasoned vet in CF, but he's played it, and played it well. He's fully capable of stepping out there and doing it tomorrow. If that's how you get your best 9 guys on the field I don't know why they wouldn't do it.

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

10 career games in the outfield, eight of those in center doesn't exactly scream outfielder to me.  A lot easier to move from a career SS to 2B or 3B than CF.

Have you seen him play OF? Did you watch how he played in the AFL? I mean even the play he got hurt on showed he's fully capable of playing an above average CF.

[Jocko87]

3 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

They shouldn't. There should be no concern at all about competitive windows or balancing asset categories when you're picking in the top 5. None at all. Take the best player available. Jenkins and Clark have higher ceilings than anyone in the system. Taking a B prospect SS or C or SP because your system is weaker there instead of taking an A level OF is bad asset management. If you end up with 5 LH OF All Stars trade a couple for whatever else you need. It's all about collecting the most talent possible. Figure out the rest later.

Agreed, I’m not taking someone from a different tier, rather tiebreaker in that tier. If my scouts are convinced Wilson is a tier down that’s disqualifying at #5. We’ve heard from a lot of pundits but not a lot of scouting departments yet. 

I’ve been looking a bit for some data on high school success rates but I’m couch bound on a phone tonight. It’s far better that it used to be but the Angels tonight remind me of the variables. Mickey Moiniak was 1-1 for someone else, Jo Adell 10th and that Trout guy. 

[dxpavelka]

59 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Have you seen him play OF? Did you watch how he played in the AFL? I mean even the play he got hurt on showed he's fully capable of playing an above average CF.

again TEN games