MLR 2023 Payroll Blueprint

[Major League Ready]

I start by signing Rodon.  Maeda is either moved to the BP or traded.
Sign Andrus to a 1 year deal he can’t refuse.  (Whatever that is)
Trade Kepler and/or Urshela if the return is good.  This plan assumes Kepler is traded and Hannigar added.

Fulmer or Rogers signed for the BP.  I used $7M but I really don't know what Rogers gets after an up and down 2022.

    2023    140,000,000     
    Starters    SALARY    OPT
1    Carlos Rodon    25,000,000     
2    Sonny Gray    12,000,000     
3    Tyler Mahle    8,500,000     
4    Joe Ryan    700,000     
5    Bailey Ober    700,000     
            
Depth:  Varland / SWR / Paddack / Dobnak            
            
    Relief Pitchers        
7    Jorge Lopez    3,000,000     
8    Jhoan Duran    700,000     
9    Jorge Alcala    700,000    
10    Griffin Jax    700,000    
11    Caleb Thielbar    2,000,000    
12    Josh Winder    700,000    
13    Fulmer or Rogers    7,000,000     
            
Megill / Stashak / Sands / Moran / Sisk            
            
    Catchers        
14    Ryan Jeffers    700,000     
15    Gary Sanchez    8,000,000     
            
            
    Infielders        
16-1B    Alex Kirilloff    700,000     
17-2B    Jorge Polanco    7,500,000     
18-3B    Jose Miranda    700,000     
19-SS    Andrus / Lewis    12,000,000     
20    Luis Arraez    700,000     
21    Gio Urshela    9,000,000     
            
Depth:  Martin  /  Julien / Holland / Williams            
            
    Outfielders        
22    Mitch Hanigar    10,000,000     
23    Byron Buxton    15,000,000     
24    Trevor Larnach    700,000     
25    Nick Gordon    700,000     
26    Celestino or Wallner    700,000     
X    Sano Buyout    2,750,000     
X    Paddack    3,000,000     
            
    TOTAL PAYROLL       130,850,000     93.5%  (6.5% under budget)
 

[Squirrel]

This is a general comment not specific to yours alone, but I am surprised by the number of these that have little to no changes to the bullpen from last season. I’m not sure who I would trade for or sign, and who I’d move out to make room, why I haven’t built a roster myself, but it seemed most everyone on TD had issues with the BP, yet I’m seeing little changes to it in these roster creations. Why is that? Do you and others think the BP will be completely turned around just by removing Pagan?

[tony&rodney]

This roster has a payroll of @$130 million and that seems more likely than a higher figure. I'm not sure how the basic agreement changes some rookie contracts (not much in terms of numbers) and Arraez is due a raise. The point concerning Maeda is going to change the roster. It will be difficult to return anything of short term value by trading Maeda but rolling the dice on someone unknown from rookie ball has worked before. I think Maeda would be good in the pen.

It is hard to dismiss Kirilloff because he looks the part of a competent glove at first base (not so much in the OF) and has displayed a swing that would play. Of course, he is an unknown, which is why (I guess) this roster has both Arraez and Urshela. Andrus is an interesting choice. Elvis looked totally washed up with Oakland, taking poor at bats and looking pretty lazy in the field, but he was tough on both sides of the ball with the White Sox. Andrus might be worth a gamble. Haniger is another enigma, but for different reasons. He has had a rough go, struggling to stay healthy which might be too familiar for the Twins. 

The bullpen question by Squirrel is legitimate but can also be answered by suggesting that a core of Duran, Lopez, Alcala, and Thielbar has some talent. From there various people insert other already rostered/ controlled Twins and usually one addition. Maeda would be a strong addition. Any or all of Moran, Jax, Winder, and Henriquez are also sound bullpen options. It would be deflating if Pagan returns.

My biggest concern with any roster is how the team lines up defensively and the hole for the Twins is behind the plate. Twins pitchers simply don't throw the ball in the dirt with any confidence. Guys like Maldonado and Hedges are examples of how valuable a glove is behind the plate. I know Jeffers has many fans and he is young enough to improve. Jeffers should be a backup. The plan does include some changes and I like that because the plans that return the roster virtually intact seem depressing.

Will the Twins continue with their failed approach to starting pitching? It was really just this past season so we shall see. Rodon will want a specific answer.

[wxman91]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

 

Will the Twins continue with their failed approach to starting pitching? It was really just this past season so we shall see. Rodon will want a specific answer.

What wouldn't be a failed approach, though?  Is throwing an offer at Rodon that is so far above the market that he has "no choice" but to come to a mediocre team the right decision? 

 

edit - Spotrac has Rodon at $31m/yr.  To get him to MN, $35M+? 

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

53 minutes ago, wxman91 said:

What wouldn't be a failed approach, though?  Is throwing an offer at Rodon that is so far above the market that he has "no choice" but to come to a mediocre team the right decision? 

 

edit - Spotrac has Rodon at $31m/yr.  To get him to MN, $35M+? 

Rodón made $21.5M this year and is likely opting out of the remaining $22.5 on his deal. A longer-term deal would keep the average annual value from going too high. Would you expect him to get much more than recent free agents like Gausman, Wheeler, etc?

[Major League Ready]

I originally had Rodon at $27.5M.  Obviously, the number of years will play into the AAV but it would not be surprising if he ended up getting above the $25M I project.  The $27.5M I had originally may have been a better estimate.

I had the same general thought as Squirrel.  However, for better or worse, they put some of their eggs in the Lopez basket.  He did not perform but it's reasonable to expect better next year.  Then, there is Winder.  There won't be a spot for him in the rotation in this plan so he takes a BP spot.  Plus, Alcala will be back.  I was being optimistic he will be back and performing well.  I was thinking there was still room in the budget if Alcala was not looking ready.  Another consideration is can Moran command the strike zone.  He could be really good.  It's probably smart to give him that opportunity.   

[stringer bell]

I think the bullpen would be made much better by adding quality and innings from the starting staff. Duran is elite, and Thielbar, Jax and Alcala make a nice setup crew. Getting López back to his Oriole part of 2022 would make this a far above average group. Bringing the starters average closer to 6 innings would be most helpful.