Game Thread: Twins @ Tigers, 5/1 - 12:08pm

[Willihammer]

Burton's average FA velo in April 2012: 92.91

Burton's average FA velo in April 2013: 91.44

[ashbury]

Gardy wants me to ask you what a laptop is.

 

He's been sneaking a look at my avatar, hasn't he?

 

/ edit: oops, sbk went the same direction and sooner, while I was updating and typing... I'll go with it anyway.

[James]

Did they change the rules? I thought you had to go three innings before you could qualify for a save with the size run differential.

This also applies:

He enters the game, regardless of the count, with the potential tying run either on base, at bat or on deck

 

From here:

Save (baseball) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

[GCTF]

Maybe I'm misreading, or maybe I'm not saying it clearly. Line one is before you make the decision whether to bunt or hit away, yes? (Florimon's already given you the two-run lead, now Dozier is up.)

 

The flyout (obviously) and the bunt, to a lesser extent both slightly reduce your win probability.

[ashbury]

Right, but I'm assuming the percentage for that situation includes all possible outcomes for the upcoming ABs, including Dozier possibly not moving the runner up, getting a hit or walk, an error, WP, or any possible outcome. Perhaps I'm confused.

 

I think we're both on the same track then. First line was before the decision on Dozier, next two lines represent two possible outcomes, but there are others, and together (and properly weighted by frequency) they should all add back up to the first line's percentage. Most of the missing outcomes involve Dozier hitting safely or walking, and those should be lumped together with the second line, when deciding whether to bunt or not. That's my take, anyway.

[snepp]

*snip*

 

I think we're all on the same page here.

 

 

 

Page 83, right?

[ashbury]

The flyout (obviously) and the bunt, to a lesser extent both slightly reduce your win probability.

 

Well, I'm about done beating this horse, whether it's dead or alive. But if these both reduce the win probability, then something else must raise it, and those are mostly associated with having Dozier hit away (and this time succeeding).

 

Bottom line, for me at least, is that bunt or not-bunt was indeed a close decision, and I'm currently persuaded that hitting away was a stronger choice than I originally thought. And I think the top of the order being up only strengthens that choice.

[ashbury]

I think we're all on the same page here.

Page 83, right?

 

tl;dnr

[glunn]

Burton is wild today?

[ashbury]

Parmalee with the HR. Screwing up the save situation for Perkins unless he pitches at some point in the 8th inning as well.

 

Perkins: shakes tiny fist at Parmelee.

[ashbury]

Burton is wild today?

 

Effectively wild; do I earn a cliche point?

[Guest USAFChief]

Closers have trouble bearing down in non-save situations. Cliché point?

[Willihammer]

What is the biggest waste of money at Treasure Island Casino:

 

A. Slots

B. Raffle

C. Gabriel Iglesias

[ashbury]

Closers have trouble bearing down in non-save situations. Cliché point?

 

Ding ding ding. But, please elaborate. Because we know you can.

 

/ edit: oh, and one style point for the accent aigu.

[GCTF]

Closers have trouble bearing down in non-save situations. Cliché point?

 

Lulz...the Tigers announcers just went there.

[glunn]

Perk may get the save oppty after all. Not good. A double play would help right now.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Sigh.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Perk may get the save oppty after all. Not good. A double play would help right now.

 

You can't pitch your way into a save opportunity.

[snepp]

Perk may get the save oppty after all. Not good. A double play would help right now.

 

Can't pitch yourself into a save opp glunnsie.

[James]

What is the biggest waste of money at Treasure Island Casino:

 

A. Slots

B. Raffle

C. Gabriel Iglesias

At least option A and B are fun.

[glunn]

You can't pitch your way into a save opportunity.

 

Congress does it all the time. But thanks for educating me on that.

[TwinVike61]

Perk may get the save oppty after all. Not good. A double play would help right now.

 

Good call!

[big dog]

Winner winner chicken dinner!

[snepp]

Back to .500, the march for 81 rolls on.

[GCTF]

Can't pitch yourself into a save opp glunnsie.

 

Does the guy in the official scorer thread have a sense of humour? Maybe I'll ask him about this.

[glunn]

Yes!!! Good win!

[Guest USAFChief]

What is the biggest waste of money at Treasure Island Casino:

 

A. Slots

B. Raffle

C. Gabriel Iglesias

I misread option A and was checking flight prices to the cities. Glad I checked again.

[GCTF]

Good thread, from cliches to win probability to poop jokes and even 4 or 5 posts of actual game discussion.

[ashbury]

Lulz...the Tigers announcers just went there.

 

Looks like Perk went out of his way to prove the point. But, did they put the accent mark on Cliché like Chiefsié did?

 

To wrap up: it will take some time to count up all the Likes bestowed upon me this game. Price Waterhouse will be contacting the winner, and sending them their complimentary JPEG of avatar girl.

[Guest USAFChief]

Winnah! Nice to get out of Day-twah with a win.