Game Thread: Twins @ Tigers, 5/1 - 12:08pm

[ashbury]

In the spirit of a recently posted article, would that have improved the win probability?

 

That's actually some information I'd want to have at hand, for a more serious second look. However, those are just averages, and not taking into account that this is the 2-3-4 part of the lineup, and also not taking into account that Carroll is subbing today in the 2 hole and Morneau will be facing a lefty...

[James]

Micro granny works too.

Wait, Morneausie is going to hit a little person now?

[GCTF]

What did she ever do to him?

 

She knows what she did.

[Aaron Cross]

2 runs out of all of that? Twins baseball at its finest.

[GCTF]

Dick: "Follows up a deuce with a deuce"

 

I hate when that happens. Your all set to move on with your day and bam, not quite done.

[ashbury]

2 runs out of all of that? Twins baseball at its finest.

 

Bullpen ought to be able to hold a three run lead for three innings; but yes, let's hope there's no reason to look back at that inning.

[edavis0308]

Diamond out after 88 pitches? Is this a situation where we are turning 7-8-9 to the pen or was he running out of gas?

[ashbury]

I hate when that happens. Your all set to move on with your day and bam, not quite done.

 

Just drop it.

[snepp]

In the spirit of a recently posted article, would that have improved the win probability?

 

Out of curiosity....

 

 

Starting win expectancy, runner on 2nd, no outs, up 2: 86.3%

 

Win expectancy after Dozier flyout: 82.2%

 

Win expectancy if successful sac bunt: 84.6%

[IdahoPilgrim]

2 runs out of all of that? Twins baseball at its finest.

 

No. "Twins baseball at its finest" would have involved leaving the bases full with no runs in. This actually turned out not that badly.

[ashbury]

Diamond out after 88 pitches? Is this a situation where we are turning 7-8-9 to the pen or was he running out of gas?

 

Long inning to sit, facing a day off, it seems reasonable to me.

[snepp]

I hate when that happens. Your all set to move on with your day and bam, not quite done.

 

This is what I refer to as the three S's.

 

 

****, shower, ****.

[IdahoPilgrim]

Out of curiosity....

 

 

Starting win expectancy, runner on 2nd, no outs, up 2: 86.3%

 

Win expectancy after Dozier flyout: 82.2%

 

Win expectancy if successful sac bunt: 84.6%

 

Thanks. Where do you find that?

[Guest USAFChief]

I hate when that happens. Your all set to move on with your day and bam, not quite done.

Well, to each his own. At my age, I find it damned satisfying.

[snepp]

No. "Twins baseball at its finest" would have involved leaving the bases full with no runs in. This actually turned out not that badly.

 

That would be Twins Baseball™.

[ashbury]

Starting win expectancy, runner on 2nd, no outs, up 2: 86.3%

Win expectancy after Dozier flyout: 82.2%

Win expectancy if successful sac bunt: 84.6%

 

That represents a little bit of a second guess, though. Sac bunts are usually successful. I think these numbers mean that we are leaving out the chance (proven untrue by events as they already unfolded) of Dozier getting a base hit of some kind, or a walk. If you start with 86.3, and the bunt leaves you at 84.6, then not bunting ought to be above 86.3... but maybe I'm missing something in statistical inference.

[snepp]

Thanks. Where do you find that?

 

The link that Seth included in that article he wrote lets you enter the individual game situations.

[Guest USAFChief]

That represents a little bit of a second guess, though. Sac bunts are usually successful. I think these numbers mean that we are leaving out the chance (proven untrue by events as they already unfolded) of Dozier getting a base hit of some kind, or a walk. If you start with 86.3, and the bunt leaves you at 84.6, then not bunting ought to be above 86.3... but maybe I'm missing something in statistical inference.

Wouldn't that possibility be included in line one (runner on 2nd, no outs, up 2)?

[IdahoPilgrim]

That represents a little bit of a second guess, though. Sac bunts are usually successful. I think these numbers mean that we are leaving out the chance (proven untrue by events as they already unfolded) of Dozier getting a base hit of some kind, or a walk. If you start with 86.3, and the bunt leaves you at 84.6, then not bunting ought to be above 86.3... but maybe I'm missing something in statistical inference.

 

Maybe they already do this, but if not the day can't be far away when they have a laptop or something in the dugout that shows which is statistically more likely to result in a win, having him bunt or swing away, etc. in each particular game situation.

[James]

Parmalee with the HR. Screwing up the save situation for Perkins unless he pitches at some point in the 8th inning as well.

[snepp]

That represents a little bit of a second guess, though. Sac bunts are usually successful. I think these numbers mean that we are leaving out the chance (proven untrue by events as they already unfolded) of Dozier getting a base hit of some kind, or a walk. If you start with 86.3, and the bunt leaves you at 84.6, then not bunting ought to be above 86.3... but maybe I'm missing something in statistical inference.

 

That win expectancy is just what it would have been after the fact. You could of course input every potential result of his plate appearance, take the likelyhood of each event occurring, and then come up with an expected win expectancy for non-bunting, but that's an awful lot of work for a game thread.

 

[ashbury]

Wouldn't that possibility be included in line one (runner on 2nd, no outs, up 2)?

 

Maybe I'm misreading, or maybe I'm not saying it clearly. Line one is before you make the decision whether to bunt or hit away, yes? (Florimon's already given you the two-run lead, now Dozier is up.)

[Guest USAFChief]

Fien has been a really nice addition to the pen. Kudos.

[IdahoPilgrim]

Parmalee with the HR. Screwing up the save situation for Perkins unless he pitches at some point in the 8th inning as well.

 

Did they change the rules? I thought you had to go three innings before you could qualify for a save with the size run differential.

[GCTF]

Maybe they already do this, but if not the day can't be far away when they have a laptop or something in the dugout that shows which is statistically more likely to result in a win, having him bunt or swing away, etc. in each particular game situation.

 

Gardy wants me to ask you what a laptop is.

[Willihammer]

Damn, almost broke Dazzle's mic with that foul ball

[ashbury]

Parmelee homering also factors into the computation somewhere, I think.

[IdahoPilgrim]

Gardy wants me to ask you what a laptop is.

 

It's a place where kids sit with their grandparents and Santa Claus.

[Guest USAFChief]

Maybe I'm misreading, or maybe I'm not saying it clearly. Line one is before you make the decision whether to bunt or hit away, yes? (Florimon's already given you the two-run lead, now Dozier is up.)

Right, but I'm assuming the percentage for that situation includes all possible outcomes for the upcoming ABs, including Dozier possibly not moving the runner up, getting a hit or walk, an error, WP, or any possible outcome. Perhaps I'm confused.

[glunn]

Parmelee homering also factors into the computation somewhere, I think.

 

The blond avatar is working today.