One Stop Shop for the 2013 Draft.

[cmb0252]

Definitely a fan of loading up on more pitching in this draft. Maybe they can focus on MI on the Int'l market?

 

With the depth at college pitching and HS LHPing loading up on arms shouldn't be hard, even if they don't take an arm at #4. At this point I'm not sure if the Twins are linked to any international MI prospects but they sure as heck won't find any in the rule 4 draft. Hopefully a few guys we have like Levi, Eddy, and Mr.Polanco keep developing to fill the gap.

[cmb0252]

From Jim callis' chat today:

 

 

• Any chance one of Appel/Gray/Bryant fall to the Twins at #4? And is it automatic they take one of the 3 if they are available? If they are all gone, who is the #4 prospect available?
  

Jim Callis: There's a chance, especially because I could see the Rockies going for a pitcher at No. 3. And because the Twins want pitching, I don't think it's a lock that they'd take Bryant at No. 4. I don't see any way Appel or Gray get to Minnesota. If all three of those are gone, Clint Frazier is our highest-rated prospect and Kohl Stewart is our highest-rated pitcher.

 

• If the draft were today: Manaea, Shipley or Stanek?
  

Jim Callis: I would take Shipley. Most athletic of that group, deepest repertoire of that group, most consistent season of that group. If you could guarantee that Manaea would turn back into the guys we saw in the Cape Cod League last summer, I'd take Manaea.

 

 

 

[cmb0252]

From Laws chats today:

 

A few people have been saying Twins are thinking of taking Reese McGuire at 4 to save money and potentially get some harder to sign prospects later in the draft. I don't understand since they have a deep system. Wouldn't you rather add the best player at number 4?

[h=6]Klaw (12:08 PM)

[/h]

 

I've heard that as well, and I do know they like McGuire, but that would be a really poor use of the pick with Kohl Stewart on the board.

 

Who do you honestly think the Twins will take at 4? Hopefully they dont make a deal with mcguire but that sounds like a Twins move.

[h=6]Klaw (12:55 PM)

[/h]

 

Stewart. Their scouting director has seen him at least three times including Monday. And they want power arms.

[amjgt]

Also, from Law's mock draft today, he mentioned the possibility (small one) of the Astros not taking Gray or Appel

 

"There is one hot rumor this week that has the Astros on UNC third baseman Colin Moran, one of the top statistical performers in this draft and someone likely to rate at or near the top of Houston's internal analytics."

 

Don't get my hopes up Mr Law.

[gunnarthor]

Also, from Law's mock draft today, he mentioned the possibility (small one) of the Astros not taking Gray or Appel

 

"There is one hot rumor this week that has the Astros on UNC third baseman Colin Moran, one of the top statistical performers in this draft and someone likely to rate at or near the top of Houston's internal analytics."

 

Don't get my hopes up Mr Law.

 

Wow, that would be great. Cubs grab Appel. Rockies remain in love with Bryant and we get Gray. I'd be really ok with that.

[cmb0252]

Wow, that would be great. Cubs grab Appel. Rockies remain in love with Bryant and we get Gray. I'd be really ok with that.

 

 

Let's not get our hopes up. Rockies biggest need is pitching too so if some how the Astros are dumb enough to pass on an arm I doubt the Rockies do. Unless there is an injury I put the chances of Appel or Gray to the Twins at under 5%.

[diehardtwinsfan]

seems to me that if the Astros are going to rock the boat, they take HS talent to fit in with the guys they have... I'd think Stewart would be a better pick for them... Same upside as Appel/Gray, but a bit further away and more in line with what they have... I could see him going a couple million under slot too. They could use that to entice other HS guys.

[cmb0252]

Mayo released two articles about the Astros and how they are getting ready for the draft. The first article is about them getting ready to have draft work outs and had this interesting line:

"

This is something in St. Louis we had a lot of success with, and a lot of the later kids [drafted] were kids who attended the workouts," Elias said. "They weren't drafted high or for a significant amount of money, but they got in front of Jeff and the crosscheckers and brought some extra attention to themselves prior to the Draft and put themselves more firmly in our mind on Draft day. When you're staring at the board, you can put a face to the magnet and have a clearer picture of who the player was. It really helps those players get drafted and helps us make better decisions in the Draft."

 

The second article is about Jim Crane, owner of the Astros, going to an Astros game after personally scouting UNC college game.

Luhnow said it was the first time Crane had been out in person this year to watch potential Draft targets. The Astros have the No. 1 overall pick in the First-Year Player Draft on June 6. Luhnow wouldn't say which player they were watching, but North Carolina third baseman Colin Moran is a top prospect.

"We don't comment on Draft-eligible players for obvious reasons, but we continue to put in a lot of time against it, and it was great Jim was willing to go out and see a player with his own eyes," Luhnow said. "We might try another couple before it's all said and done."

Crane was a standout college pitcher at Central Missouri State, so he provides anything but the layman's eye.

Articles below:

http://mlb.mlb.com//news/article.jsp?ymd=20130519&content_id=47986054&notebook_id=47986774&vkey=notebook_hou&c_id=hou

 

Astros to hold first Draft workout on Sunday | astros.com: News

[Brodin4Calder]

Mayo released two articles about the Astros and how they are getting ready for the draft. The first article is about them getting ready to have draft work outs and had this interesting line:

"

This is something in St. Louis we had a lot of success with, and a lot of the later kids [drafted] were kids who attended the workouts," Elias said. "They weren't drafted high or for a significant amount of money, but they got in front of Jeff and the crosscheckers and brought some extra attention to themselves prior to the Draft and put themselves more firmly in our mind on Draft day. When you're staring at the board, you can put a face to the magnet and have a clearer picture of who the player was. It really helps those players get drafted and helps us make better decisions in the Draft."

 

The second article is about Jim Crane, owner of the Astros, going to an Astros game after personally scouting UNC college game.

Luhnow said it was the first time Crane had been out in person this year to watch potential Draft targets. The Astros have the No. 1 overall pick in the First-Year Player Draft on June 6. Luhnow wouldn't say which player they were watching, but North Carolina third baseman Colin Moran is a top prospect.

"We don't comment on Draft-eligible players for obvious reasons, but we continue to put in a lot of time against it, and it was great Jim was willing to go out and see a player with his own eyes," Luhnow said. "We might try another couple before it's all said and done."

Crane was a standout college pitcher at Central Missouri State, so he provides anything but the layman's eye.

Articles below:

http://mlb.mlb.com//news/article.jsp?ymd=20130519&content_id=47986054&notebook_id=47986774&vkey=notebook_hou&c_id=hou

 

Astros to hold first Draft workout on Sunday | astros.com: News

 

Maybe HOU takes Moran and COL had already made up their minds about taking Bryant so Gray or Appel drops to the Twins? Could happen, everyone thought HOU was gonna take Appel last year or atleast Buxton but they made a deal and could do the same this year with Moran. Its highly unlikely but it would be awesome to get Gray or Appel.

[beckmt]

Consider it very unlikely

[Jeremy Nygaard]

My guess is this is a ploy to drive the price of #1 down. Everybody expected to be selected before Moran stands to make less money if he goes first. Same with Twins and McGuire.

[Brodin4Calder]

From Laws chats today:

 

A few people have been saying Twins are thinking of taking Reese McGuire at 4 to save money and potentially get some harder to sign prospects later in the draft. I don't understand since they have a deep system. Wouldn't you rather add the best player at number 4?

Klaw (12:08 PM)

 

 

 

I've heard that as well, and I do know they like McGuire, but that would be a really poor use of the pick with Kohl Stewart on the board.

 

Who do you honestly think the Twins will take at 4? Hopefully they dont make a deal with mcguire but that sounds like a Twins move.

Klaw (12:55 PM)

 

 

 

Stewart. Their scouting director has seen him at least three times including Monday. And they want power arms.

 

That 2nd question was me, ha.

[Brodin4Calder]

With HOU hiring Reid Ryan as their president a few days ago theres no way they dont take Appel or Gray, he even said that pitching was the key to winning. Maybe his dad could play on the team?

[cmb0252]

With HOU hiring Reid Ryan as their president a few days ago theres no way they dont take Appel or Gray, he even said that pitching was the key to winning. Maybe his dad could play on the team?

 

Ryan's dominating Texas baseball!

[cmb0252]

I'm too lazy to update every players thread with stat updates so I will just do it here.

 

The Good:

Chris Anderson: 10 innings, 0 ER, 9/1 K/BB ratio

Ryan Stanek: 7.2 innings, 0 ER, 4/4 K/BB ratio

Manaea: 5.2 innings, 0 ER, 5/1 K/BB ratio (was on a pitch count)

Moran: 10 Abs, 4 hits (one 3B), 4 RBIs

Shipley: 7 innings, 0 ER, 10/1 k/bb

 

The bad:

Appel: 7 innings, 4 ER, 11/1 k/bb

Gray: 6.1 innings, 4 ER, 3/1 k/bb

 

The Ugly:

Wahl, Williams, and Blair (aka college arms trying to stay in the first round)

 

Christopher Crawford notes a scout had this to say about Shipley:

 

He was impressive,” said an NL East scout. “This was the guy we saw in March, the guy with a mid-90’s fastball and plus-plus change who attacked hitters and missed bats. When he’s firing on all cylinders, he’s as good as any pitcher not named Appel in this class.”

[gunnarthor]

I think Shipley could be a dark horse pick for us at #4 (assuming Gray, Appel and Bryant are off the board). He meets a lot of the criteria the Twins like - good control, good change up, good fastball. Not a Boras guy. College arm. I wouldn't be surprised if it came down to him and the HS arm in Stewart.

[Mike Sixel]

I could see that also, gunnarthor. Shipley and Manaea are doing their best (heck, maybe Stanek) to challenge to move back into the top 5.

[cmb0252]

Present and future scouting grades for this years top 5 college pitchers via Jonathan Mayo and Keith Law.

 

Mark Appel

Fastball: 70/80 (Mayo) 65/70 (Law)

Slider: 50/60 (Mayo) 60/65 (Law)

Change up: 50/60 (Mayo) 65/70 (Law)

Control: 50/60 (Mayo) 65/65 (Law)

 

Jonathan Gray

Fastball: 70/80 (Mayo) 80/80 (Law)

Slider: 50/60 (Mayo) 65/70 (Law)

Change up: 40/50 (Mayo) 50/55 (Law)

Control: 40/50 (Mayo) 60/60 (Law)

 

Sean Manaea

Fastball: 60/60 (Mayo) 50/55 (Law)

Slider: 40/50 (Mayo) 50/50 (Law)

Change up: 50/60 (Mayo) 50/50 (Law)

Control: 50/60 (Mayo) 65/65 (Law)

 

Ryan Stanek:

Fastball: 60/70 (Mayo) 60/60 (Law)

Slider: 40/55 (Mayo) 45/55 (Law)

Curve ball: 40/60 (Mayo) 50/60 (Law)

Control: 40/50 (Mayo) 45/55 (Law)

 

Braden Shipley

Fastball: 60/70 (Mayo) 60/70 (Law)

Curve ball: 40/50 (Mayo) 50/60 (Law)

Change up: 40/50 (Mayo) 65/65 (Law)

Control: 40/50 (Mayo) 45/55 (Law)

 

Interesting comparisons. They are different on a lot of these. Just goes to show scouting isn't an exact science.

[cmb0252]

Matt Garrioch over at minorleagueball released his 2013 draft players with signability concerns list. With the Twins having the 43 pick there is a chance that most of these guys will be there and if they Twins like them will have to decide if they are worth the risk.

 

Several names of interest:

Kohl Stewart which he puts 2% chance of not signing

Logan Shore which he puts at 50% chance he won't sign

Ryan Boldt which he puts at a 40% chance he won't sign

And my personal favorite:

Kyle Serrano which he puts at a 50% chance he won't sign.

 

There are a ton of talented prep arms on the list. Full article below:

 

2013 MLB Draft: Players With Signability Questions - Minor League Ball

[gunnarthor]

Braden Shipley

Fastball: 60/70 (Mayo) 60/70 (Law)

Curve ball: 40/50 (Mayo) 50/60 (Law)

Change up: 40/50 (Mayo) 65/65 (Law)

Control: 40/50 (Mayo) 45/55 (Law)

 

Interesting comparisons. They are different on a lot of these. Just goes to show scouting isn't an exact science.

 

Thanks for posting that, cmb. Going off the old grading system at minor league ball, Mayo sees Shipley as a solid #3 type while Law thinks he could be a #2. But, and this is probably the most important to me, both think he has enough pitches to remain a starter. I'm a bit surprised to see all those 40s and 50s for all those guys. I thought some of them had questions about whether or not they had a 3rd pitch to make it as a starter (Stanek).

[Mike Sixel]

It goes to show BPA is not so obvious, imo.

[maxisagod]

Thanks for posting that, cmb. Going off the old grading system at minor league ball, Mayo sees Shipley as a solid #3 type while Law thinks he could be a #2. But, and this is probably the most important to me, both think he has enough pitches to remain a starter. I'm a bit surprised to see all those 40s and 50s for all those guys. I thought some of them had questions about whether or not they had a 3rd pitch to make it as a starter (Stanek).

 

What is it, 45 is average? A pitcher with 2 pitches is more of a reliever, A guy with just a bunch of 50's is a... Hendricks. So 3 pitches at 60 or higher would be #2 stuff?

[gunnarthor]

What is it, 45 is average? A pitcher with 2 pitches is more of a reliever, A guy with just a bunch of 50's is a... Hendricks. So 3 pitches at 60 or higher would be #2 stuff?

 

A #2 would be two plus pitches and an average third one.

 

Here's a decent link to what scouts mean by #1, 2 etc: Defining 1-2-3-4-5 Starters - Minor League Ball. It's based on scouting, not nec results. Other websites - baseball prospectus for instance - have similar definitions, if you can find the articles. It's not perfect but it's a decent start.

[cmb0252]

It goes to show BPA is not so obvious, imo.

 

While this very true for fans but for front offices it is not. They are not looking at Law's or BA's or Mayo's prospect grades but their own. They pay area scouts, regional scouts, cross checkers, and front office people to make sure they get it right. Do they always get it right? Clearly not but once again, this isn't an exact science.

[cmb0252]

What is it, 45 is average? A pitcher with 2 pitches is more of a reliever, A guy with just a bunch of 50's is a... Hendricks. So 3 pitches at 60 or higher would be #2 stuff?

 

50 is average. Gunnarthor's link is a pretty good article to help understand the grading system. You are pretty close with your examples but the one thing I would point out is that actual scouts grade on more than just 3 pitches/control. While I didn't post all of Law's grades, Mayo only had the basics, Law also has fastball movement, command (different than control), and feel for pitching in his grades. All these and much more can make and break a pitcher.

[Mike Sixel]

While this very true for fans but for front offices it is not. They are not looking at Law's or BA's or Mayo's prospect grades but their own. They pay area scouts, regional scouts, cross checkers, and front office people to make sure they get it right. Do they always get it right? Clearly not but once again, this isn't an exact science.

 

Given that most scouts only see guys in their region, I'd think it is even less an exact science than we would think from the outside. This is not, I'd guess, like the NFL or NBA.

[cmb0252]

Given that most scouts only see guys in their region, I'd think it is even less an exact science than we would think from the outside. This is not, I'd guess, like the NFL or NBA.

 

Jeremy's interview with Sean Johnson paints a pretty good picture. As he said everyone has the same guys in the top 90-100 in some order for the most part. Around late third round is when you start getting your surprises, as you said, because most scouts only see regional guys. Whoever the Twins take at 4 will be well scouted.

[Mike Sixel]

Oh, I agree with that.....the top players are well scouted.....

[cmb0252]

Jim Callis did his weekly chat and here are the questions where he mentioned the Twins.

 

• 
  Is Frazier or Meadows more likely to end up with the Twins at #4?
  

Jim Callis: Sorry, another phone call, but I'm back ... Really don't think either is in the mix for the Twins. If Minnesota takes a HS bat, it will be Reese McGuire.

 

• Twins have to go BPA at #4 (I don't see the Reese McGuire as smart, or likely) if that's true, is Kohl Stewart likely to sign if taken that high? Recent tweets from him suggest he's excited for Texas A &M, but is that just agent-inspired? Also, is his stuff that much better than Trey Ball, or Braden Shipley as the "best pitcher available" or should the Twins grab Clint Frazier?
  

Jim Callis: Agree on best player available. Stewart will sign, the football talk is leverage, he's not going to turn down millions to go to Texas A&M to sit behind Johnny Manziel. Once scouting director told me Stewart's stuff is as good as Gray and Appel's, and he's more athletic. Clear No. 3 pitcher in draft for me, and more upside than any of them.

 

• Kiley McDaniel tweets that there is real momentum to Colin Moran going #1 to Houston. How would this affect the picks following it?
  

Jim Callis: I can't really see Moran going 1-1. But if he did, it might mean that one of Gray or Appel would get to the Twins at 4, Stewart would get to the Red Sox at 7 and both Frazier and Meadows could fall out of the top 10.

 

Not Draft related:

Do you think Byron Buxton could be the # 1 prospect in baseball by the end of the year ?

Jim Callis: Yes ... I appear to have shifted into lightning-round mode. Still have 125+ unread questions in the queue, will try to plow through some more.

[InfraRen]

Good stuff from Callis. I like his opinion on Stewart. I'm leaning towards him if this Moran #1 thing doesn't happen and send one of the "Big 3" our way.