One Stop Shop for the 2013 Draft.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Based on recent developments regarding Manaea, if the Twins still want a pitcher, they pretty much have to take Stewart right?

 

I don't know what to think anymore. The Twins have a history of taking guys who have done well in the Cape Cod League. Typically, though, the guys that did well there and struggle in college don't get drafted very high.

 

Eight months ago, Manaea was 1a and 1b on my personal preference list. After watching him play live and following Appel closely, Appel nudged ahead. Manaea was good, not electric, but showed flashed of a top-of-the-rotation starter. He missed a lot of bats, but was even further away than I had anticipated. He worked slow, but was still 92, 93, 94. He rolled his ankle in celebrating the win. Now the hip deal.

 

For sanity's sake, I'm hoping against a hitter, but Kris Bryant has been unbelievable. Besides Gray, who won't be around, no one else has really come to the forefront.

 

Kohl Stewart? I'd buy it. Not sure the Twins go prep that early. Austin Meadows? The Twins like him. I'm really at a loss.

 

I'm going to give it through the weekend and start bugging people again.

[clutterheart]

Article from Mayo at mlb.com, Who's No. 1? Six leading candidate s for the first draft pick. Article below:

 

Who's No. 1? Six leading candidates for the first pick in 2013 First-Year Player Draft | MLB.com: News

 

Two things surprise me.

1) He has Manaea in the conversation for #1.

2) He doesn't have Stewart in the mix even though some people have link the Astros to them.

While I still think the Astros will take Appel or Gray it is an interesting read.

 

Astros are the wild card here I think. They had a HUGE draft last year taking a guy they could sign for less and then using the money for lower round guys. If they do that again, Appel, Gray or Bryant would be there for them. Its kind of bummer that this year the draft looks to be 3 deep without the Gausmans or Zimmers that were around last year.

[cmb0252]

Baseball America has a weekly article called Ask BA which answers three reader questions a week. This week they had a very interesting draft question, also a question about the Twins own Adam Walker, but here is the draft question:

 

The consensus is that 2013 is a relatively weak draft for top-end position players, especially from the college ranks. To put things in perspective, where would you have ranked San Diego third baseman Kris Bryant and Georgia high school outfielders Clint Frazier and Austin Meadows in the 2011 and 2012 drafts?

 

What BA has to say is an interesting read and way too long to repaste here but here is the break down.

 

In the 2012 draft Bryant, Meadows, and Frazier would be behind Buxton, Correa, and Zunio but in the same group as Almora which would put them in the 8-11 range overall. In the 2011 draft they would be behind Rendon and Starling (even though Starling's star has dimmed since the draft) but in the same group as Lindor which would put them in the 7-10 range in one of the deepest drafts ever. These placements focus on how the players were viewed before the draft and not what they have done since.

 

For the full explanation of the question above or to reads the Adam Walker question click the link below:

Ask BA: How Do Draft's Top Bats Stack Up? - BaseballAmerica.com

[gunnarthor]

Based on recent developments regarding Manaea, if the Twins still want a pitcher, they pretty much have to take Stewart right?

 

What about Stanek or Shipley?

[cmb0252]

The Twins are in a hard spot at #4. The year started with 3 elite pitchers in Appel, Stanek, and Manaea before the emergence of Gray. Due to inconsistency Stanek has most likely fallen out of the top ten while Manaea has been a mess himself. This leaves the draft with two top pitching prospects, which will most likely go 1-2, for the top four teams who all need pitching.

 

Bryant, Frazier, and Meadows are great prospects, would be welcome additions to our minors, but they don't exactly fill any major need. We have the deepest group of young outfielders in the game and a bunch of fringe 3B. Clearly you don't draft for need but every Twins fan in the world was hoping for a college ace at 4.

 

Then there is one of my personal favorites, Kohl Stewart. He is a pitcher with ace potential but is a HS arm with several big question marks. Add in the fact Johnson has only drafted 2 HS pitchers in his 33 top 5 round picks and I'm not sure I see the Twins pulling the trigger.

 

Where does that leave the Twins? Some might suggest take a lesser player at 4 at a discount and spend the savings later but I'm not a fan. While we might not need one of the bats above there is a huge drop off of talent after the top 6 and I want a star if I'm drafting in the top 5. I also don't see punting the pick this year to get the #5 pick next year in what is currently considered a deeper class. Drafts are fluid and things change. There is no way to know if a better prospect will be there at 5.

 

There isn't a ton of time left, college pitchers only get 3 more starts, before the draft. While everyone wants a college arm at 4 don't be surprised if it doesn't happen.

[nicksaviking]

More on McGuire vs Denney: Twins view McGuire as more complete package; Denney with more power. Consider McGuire mid-first round, Denney back-half of first round.

 

Interesting, yes. But sounds about right considering how the Twins operate. Sounds like Pittsburgh (who drafts 9 and 14) likes McGuire. I have my eyes on a different prep catcher, who I'll reveal in my next draft post, potentially this weekend.

 

That makes me feel better. I don't want the Twins to go anywhere near a HS catcher.

 

If the Twins happened to draft Bryant, what will come of the minor league 3B situation? They'd have Sano, Bryant and Harrison, three slugging 3B prospects with questionable defense. RF is always a possiblity but 1B is probably the bigger hole. Does one of them get moved from 3B immediately?

 

My guess is Harrison would move across the diamond to 1B immediately. The team has put a lot of time and effort into Sano's defense and it's starting to pay off. Bryant has RF experience so if they needed to move him to the OF at some point, it should not be a difficult or lengthy transition.

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What about Stanek or Shipley?

 

After putting together several good starts in a row Stanek threw a very mediocre game last weekend. 5.1 innings, 7 H, 3 ER, 4/2 K/BB with reports that his stuff was really inconsistent during the outing. He is way too inconsistent to be a top 5 pick IMO.

 

Shipley had a great game this past weekend but threw a clunker the week before. Like Zimmer last year, both converted position players, there is room to dream about them turning into aces but a ton of question marks. Also, I believe Jeremy has reported that the Twins aren't high on him.

[cmb0252]

That makes me feel better. I don't want the Twins to go anywhere near a HS catcher.

 

If the Twins happened to draft Bryant, what will come of the minor league 3B situation? They'd have Sano, Bryant and Harrison, three slugging 3B prospects with questionable defense. RF is always a possiblity but 1B is probably the bigger hole. Does one of them get moved from 3B immediately?

 

My guess is Harrison would move across the diamond to 1B immediately. The team has put a lot of time and effort into Sano's defense and it's starting to pay off. Bryant has RF experience so if they needed to move him to the OF at some point, it should not be a difficult or lengthy transition.

 

Bryant definitely has the arm and athletic ability to play RF but what do you do with Arcia? Move him to left? I actually think with Morny most likely leaving this year you can draft Bryant and have him up early in 2014 playing 1B.

[gunnarthor]

 

Where does that leave the Twins? Some might suggest take a lesser player at 4 at a discount and spend the savings later but I'm not a fan. While we might not need one of the bats above there is a huge drop off of talent after the top 6 and I want a star if I'm drafting in the top 5. I also don't see punting the pick this year to get the #5 pick next year in what is currently considered a deeper class. Drafts are fluid and things change. There is no way to know if a better prospect will be there at 5.

 

Yeah, I don't really like the idea of abandoning BPA either. One way it could work would be if the Twins could land an arm like Florida's Whitson who is out for the season with an injury but was supposed to be a top 10 talent coming into the draft. Jeremy thinks he'll stay in college. The Twins would have to pick him in a later round and hope that they could save enough money to take a risk on a injured player. I'm not sure I love that idea. The other way would be if there were tough HS players to sign (McCullers last year) but that doesn't seem like Johnson's MO.

 

I guess I still think the Twins take Manaea unless Houston does something strange for us.

[Reginald Maudling's Shin]

After putting together several good starts in a row Stanek threw a very mediocre game last weekend. 5.1 innings, 7 H, 3 ER, 4/2 K/BB with reports that his stuff was really inconsistent during the outing. He is way too inconsistent to be a top 5 pick IMO.

 

Shipley had a great game this past weekend but threw a clunker the week before. Like Zimmer last year, both converted position players, there is room to dream about them turning into aces but a ton of question marks. Also, I believe Jeremy has reported that the Twins aren't high on him.

I watched a little but of Stanek vs. Kentucky this weekend. The UK guys were even saying his velocity was way down. I've never seen him pitch before but he didn't look overpowering at all.

[gunnarthor]

Bryant definitely has the arm and athletic ability to play RF but what do you do with Arcia? Move him to left? I actually think with Morny most likely leaving this year you can draft Bryant and have him up early in 2014 playing 1B.

 

Well, keep in mind that Bryant will finish this year at, most likely, A+. Next year he'll be in AA and hopefully he moves fast but he might not be ready until 2015. He's having a great year but he's not playing in the SEC either (Zunino is struggling at AAA for Seattle). I don't think he's going from college to the majors with only 300 milb PAs.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I agree. It's similar to my confusion why some people see Frazier as a better bat but would rather have Meadows simply because he has a slight chance of playing CF. If you're picking offense at #4, pick the best bat, don't qualify based on position.

 

I have to disagree here. A guy that will stick at SS and hit .300 with 25 HRs is far more valuable than a guy who's a DH/1B and hit .310 with 35 HRs. Position matters, especially with positions like C, SS, 2B, and CF.

[cmb0252]

BA put out a nice article about this years draft class which they talk to the Astros new scouting director Mike Elias. Elias mentions that the group they are considering for the #1 pick is down to seven (doesn't give names) and talks about the pressure that comes with this high of pick.

 

“It’s a little easier in one sense because there’s less guesswork as to who’s getting to you, so you can basically get as much information as you want on the players that you’re targeting,” Elias said. “The negative end of it is that it’s very time-consuming scouting those guys. Especially this year with there being several Friday night starters basically in contention for the spot, you’re using a lot of Fridays on those guys and it makes it difficult to scout and see the rest of the Friday night guys across the country. That’s one negative—and then yeah, it’s the No. 1 pick, so expectations are obviously very high. It’s good because you’re going to get a good player no matter what, but it’s a big decision, clearly, so there’s certainly a lot of pressure to deliver on it.”

Link for the full article below:

Sizing Up The Draft Class Of 2013 - BaseballAmerica.com

[nicksaviking]

I have to disagree here. A guy that will stick at SS and hit .300 with 25 HRs is far more valuable than a guy who's a DH/1B and hit .310 with 35 HRs. Position matters, especially with positions like C, SS, 2B, and CF.

 

Right, but it's not as though Meadows can be slotted in CF with any certainty. It's not likely that he will stick there anyway. Even if he was capable, you'd basically be drafting a lesser offensive talent as insurance in case Buxton (the far superior fielder) didn't pan out. That's much too passive of an approach to the draft.

 

I'm not exceedingly excited about Frazier either, but if the team thinks he has a higher ceiling, it would be silly for them to take a inferior hitter because he may be able play CF.

[Please]

I wonder with the knee injury to Ryan Boldt if that will drop him to the second round where I'd love the Twins to take him?

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I wonder with the knee injury to Ryan Boldt if that will drop him to the second round where I'd love the Twins to take him?

 

While I still don't think he will make it back to the Twins at 43 he has a significantly higher chance than he use to. Not only has the injury slowed him down but the whole living in Minnesota hasn't helped. His season just started while other HS prospects have finished up. When a HS season starts doesn't hurt a draft prospects ability, it does limit how much you get to see of them before the draft which might scare some teams off. He would be a steal at 43!

[Please]

While I still don't think he will make it back to the Twins at 43 he has a significantly higher chance than he use to. Not only has the injury slowed him down but the whole living in Minnesota hasn't helped. His season just started while other HS prospects have finished up. When a HS season starts doesn't hurt a draft prospects ability, it does limit how much you get to see of them before the draft which might scare some teams off. He would be a steal at 43!

 

I know he's shown enough on the showcase curcuit over the last couple years that I could still see him getting taken late 1/early 2. But hopefully (selfishly for the Twins) between cold weather, knee, not being able to play summer ball and Nebraska commit that he'll drop.

[cmb0252]

On ESPN, insider required, Jason Churchill put out an article called Draft Could Produce Run on Bats. It talks specifically about the age old Need vs BPA and how this is such a deep college pitching draft that teams might grab bats early. One executed said:

" [There's] a better chance of getting that [college] pitcher with your second pick than the bat you're looking to add," said one high-ranking executive, whose club is not alone in such a realization.

And:

"top guys, Appel, Gray, Stanek, Shipley, those guys, they aren't going to fall out of the first round, the senior scout opined. "Some of the second-tier guys that have first-round abilities ... they could drop if the bats start to go quickly and teams react to it."

 

While the Twins might he "stuck" taking a bat at 4 that doesn't mean they can't grab a college arm at 43. Last year after taking Buxton at two they went pitcher heavy and might do the same thing this year.

 

Link to article below:

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog/_/name/mlb_draft/id/9258106/with-much-dominant-young-pitching-mlb-focus-turned-bats-mlb

[gunnarthor]

Well I certainly wouldn't mind if the Twins took someone like Ziomak in the 2nd round. Thanks for posting that.

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From Jim Callis' draft chat:

 

Who is likely to be there at 4 for the Twins and who do they take?

Jim Callis: Appel and Gray are almost certainly gone and San Diego 3B Kris Bryant probably won’t be there. I think the Twins take whoever they believe is the best pitcher left. In my mind, that would be Kohl Stewart.

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This is one of three weekends left before the draft for draft prospects to increase or decrease their stock. I will up date all the individual draft pages on Monday but here is a quick run down.

Good:

Manaea-11k, 1 ER outing

Bryant- 2-5, 1 HR

Moran- 1-2, 1 HR

 

Bad:

Appel-5 ER, 4/5 K/BB ratio

 

Ugly:

Shipley- 7 ER, 6/4 K/BB ratio

 

Also, Chris Anderson was average.

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Someone posted an interesting read over at minorleagueball.com named Everything you wanted to know about how your team drafts. It breaks down college vs hitters, pitchers vs hitters, and even positionally. It goes back 5 years which in the Twins case is perfect because that's when Johnson took over. Link below:

 

EVERYTHING you wanted to know about how your team drafts - Minor League Ball

[jay]

Someone posted an interesting read over at minorleagueball.com named Everything you wanted to know about how your team drafts. It breaks down college vs hitters, pitchers vs hitters, and even positionally. It goes back 5 years which in the Twins case is perfect because that's when Johnson took over. Link below:

 

EVERYTHING you wanted to know about how your team drafts - Minor League Ball

 

Interesting stuff. Definitely shows an effort to get more pitching in the system. Twins have drafted the highest percentage of 'Arms' over the last 5 years. You can clearly see the preference for college over HS pitchers at an almost 8-to-1 rate. People blast the Twins' MI development, but they draft them right on par with the rates of other teams.

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Some other interesting thoughts about the numbers. The Twins only draft 29% of HS players in the first 5 rounds, 4th lowest in all of baseball, while taking college pitchers at almost a 10% higher amount than the next team. Also, if you are wondering who they will take in the 3rd round I can tell you one thing, its most likely going to be a college player seeing they have done that the last 5 years.

[jay]

Also, if you are wondering who they will take in the 3rd round I can tell you one thing, its most likely going to be a college player seeing they have done that the last 5 years.

 

That was the one thing I didn't agree with in the article. Flipping heads 5 times in a row doesn't make you more likely to flip heads again the sixth time. Granted, it's probably not a 50-50 equation like a coin, but the concept applies.

 

I don't think 5 years gives you much predictive value for a specific round, but certainly more so for overall draft strategy and tendencies.

[nicksaviking]

That was the one thing I didn't agree with in the article. Flipping heads 5 times in a row doesn't make you more likely to flip heads again the sixth time. Granted, it's probably not a 50-50 equation like a coin, but the concept applies.

 

I don't think 5 years gives you much predictive value for a specific round, but certainly more so for overall draft strategy and tendencies.

 

I agree, it was an interesting read but 5 years only shows a minor trend the sample size is just too small. Many factors could influnce who they take in the 3rd round. Perhaps through the second round other teams had been picking the bones of the HS players they still thought they could give a decent enough bonus to skip college and left some college players available the Twins were still really high on.

 

I could see some stratagy working in tandem with rounds one and two about picking guys who compliment the expected size of each others contract, but I'd think after round two it's a free-for-all unless there's a significant signability issue.

[Twins Twerp]

That was the one thing I didn't agree with in the article. Flipping heads 5 times in a row doesn't make you more likely to flip heads again the sixth time. Granted, it's probably not a 50-50 equation like a coin, but the concept applies.

 

I don't think 5 years gives you much predictive value for a specific round, but certainly more so for overall draft strategy and tendencies.

 

Causation vs. Correlation. Smoking does not CAUSE cancer. There is simply a CORRELATION between the two.

[cmb0252]

That was the one thing I didn't agree with in the article. Flipping heads 5 times in a row doesn't make you more likely to flip heads again the sixth time. Granted, it's probably not a 50-50 equation like a coin, but the concept applies.

 

I don't think 5 years gives you much predictive value for a specific round, but certainly more so for overall draft strategy and tendencies.

 

Oh, you are completely right. Clearly 5 as a sample size isn't a statistically accurate number but there are a few other reasons to think the Twins will take a college guy in the third round.

 

They take college guys at a 71% clip out of a 33 sample size. While the Twins have always preferred college arms to HS arms, last year they started using a strategy of drafting and converting college relief pitchers which increases the amount of college players taken. Several people around here in the know think the Twins are going to pile up on arms again like last year. With this being a deep draft in college arms it gives me little doubt that most likely the third round pick will be a kid.

 

As I say this, the Twins take BPA and if that's a HS kid in the third round they are taking him!

[cmb0252]

Keith law put out an article today called Epic Shortstop Era comes in Focus. While the article is most about the current young shortstops in the bigs and in the minors there was this excerpt about the upcoming draft:

 

"This year's draft class offers an unfavorable omen that this run of good young shortstops might not last much longer. I have just one true shortstop in my top 50 draft prospects, Lakewood (Calif.) High School's J.P. Crawford, and he's a long-term project rather than a fast mover through the minors; I don't have a college shortstop who projects to stay at the position anywhere on my top 100."

 

Our greatest need is pitching which is a strength of this draft and MI help which might be the drafts weakest point. In a but shell, don't hold your breath for a SS in this upcoming draft.

[jay]

Keith law put out an article today called Epic Shortstop Era comes in Focus. While the article is most about the current young shortstops in the bigs and in the minors there was this excerpt about the upcoming draft:

 

"This year's draft class offers an unfavorable omen that this run of good young shortstops might not last much longer. I have just one true shortstop in my top 50 draft prospects, Lakewood (Calif.) High School's J.P. Crawford, and he's a long-term project rather than a fast mover through the minors; I don't have a college shortstop who projects to stay at the position anywhere on my top 100."

 

Our greatest need is pitching which is a strength of this draft and MI help which might be the drafts weakest point. In a but shell, don't hold your breath for a SS in this upcoming draft.

 

Definitely a fan of loading up on more pitching in this draft. Maybe they can focus on MI on the Int'l market?