Berardino profiles Twins' mysterious stat guy

[IdahoPilgrim]

There's no "vibe" to read - they pretty much openly mock Goin for just sharing basic knowledge that everyone else in baseball is already comfortable with. I guess it's nice they occasionally listen but the organization is proudly primitive.

 

I guess we must have read different articles - I didn't get that feel.

[Mike Sixel]

Speaking with certainty on how they view Goin and use him is like speaking with certainty on Scott Baker's arm/shoulder/mind. We really have no idea.

 

i'm getting bored with the "twins don't care about stats" meme. We just don't know.

[nicksaviking]

Ryan may or may not care about Sabr-stats. Anderson may or may not care about WAR. But as implied by other posters, even if they don't want to use the stats, they should be expected to be aware of them and know their significance and functions. There are people on this site from all walks of life working jobs totally unrelated to baseball who know this stuff. These guys have full-time jobs in the industry, they should actively seek out new learning opportunities to better understand their field.

 

I am quite aware of the many functions of my business even outside of the department that I am paid to perform in. Why can't we expect these guys to have the same grasp of other areas of their industry as Mike at Walmart who follows baseball as an unpaid hobby?

[Alex]

Speaking with certainty on how they view Goin and use him is like speaking with certainty on Scott Baker's arm/shoulder/mind. We really have no idea.

 

i'm getting bored with the "twins don't care about stats" meme. We just don't know.

 

I'd argue that the Twins could help themselves in this regard. Until we see new evidence, the current evidence is all we have and most of it points in one direction. There's certainly been some encouraging steps this season.

[ashbury]

WAR for pitchers is pretty pointless to be honest.

 

Well, I think the spirit is that it tries to condense into one number what normally takes two numbers. You want to know a pitcher's ERA, but if it wasn't across a lot of innings then he didn't actually contribute as much to his team as someone with a little worse ERA but 200 innings. Unless, the ERA is as bad as what you could have gotten from someone off the waiver-wire. WAR sort of does all that.

 

But for most situations, you can tell from ERA and IP how two pitchers compare; and if it's close, other factors may play a greater role depending on what decision you are trying to make. And, as others have said, I don't see much that a pitching coach would use, by knowing it.

[IdahoPilgrim]

It doesn't bother me at all that Anderson wasn't familiar with WAR. I'm not a big fan of WAR in general, and especially for pitchers, as there isn't any standard definition of how it is calculated. Comparing pitcher's WAR on fangraphs with those on baseball reference (Worley, for example) shows how useless the stat is, absent that definition.

[cmathewson]

I don't get the meme that the Twins would ignore information that can help them make better decisions. Scouting and stats are not mutually exclusive. Ryan even said (in so many words) that he uses stats to validate scouting all the time. He rarely starts with stats and sends scouts out to validate that. But who cares about the order the information is accessed?

 

I'm reminded of the story in Moneyball where the stats guy recommended a pitcher affectionately known as the "creature"--a lefthander who threw like the dad in the VW commercial. He got results in some independent league because none of those hitters had ever seen the ball coming in from that angle. They signed him without asking any scouts about him. He got completely destroyed in real pro ball. He never would have been signed if they had sent a scout first.

[Mike Sixel]

The meme is all over this thread, imo. The meme is referenced on hardballtalk.com. The meme is, well, a meme......

[cmathewson]

The meme is all over this thread, imo. The meme is referenced on hardballtalk.com. The meme is, well, a meme......

 

Then perhaps the meme is a myth, which the Twins are all too happy to perpetuate so that they can get get talent from teams more cheaply. No need to show your cards in this game.

[drivlikejehu]

There is just no way the GM, VPs, manager, pitching coach, etc. are all pretending to be ignorant. The ignorance is real. Some of it matters, some of it doesn't - no one is suggesting Anderson needs to know about WAR. That's just a red herring.

 

If the Twins considered various metrics, and decided some are useless... that would be great. If they tried to develop their own, to focus on their particular priorities, that would be great. Sticking their heads in the sand is just not acceptable.

[cmathewson]

There is just no way the GM, VPs, manager, pitching coach, etc. are all pretending to be ignorant. The ignorance is real. Some of it matters, some of it doesn't - no one is suggesting Anderson needs to know about WAR. That's just a red herring.

 

If the Twins considered various metrics, and decided some are useless... that would be great. If they tried to develop their own, to focus on their particular priorities, that would be great. Sticking their heads in the sand is just not acceptable.

 

And, after everything you've read in these two articles, you believe they've stuck their heads in the sand? If so, you are purposely ignoring what they say in order to form your own conclusions.

[Willihammer]

I would be curious to know why they don't have the various f/x systems installed in their own affiliate ballparks, if they like information so much.

[snepp]

I would be curious to know why they don't have the various f/x systems installed in their own affiliate ballparks, if they like information so much.

 

Well, it came down to that, or replacing the decor in the corporate offices.

 

 

Something's got to give.

[cmathewson]

I would be curious to know why they don't have the various f/x systems installed in their own affiliate ballparks, if they like information so much.

 

Let me get this straight. You won't be satisfied that the Twins like information until they install Pitch F/x machines in every minor league ballpark without the help of the other 29 MLB teams? I see.

[Guest USAFChief]

And, after everything you've read in these two articles, you believe they've stuck their heads in the sand? If so, you are purposely ignoring what they say in order to form your own conclusions.

So in your opinion, Mastro playing in 8 games in 15 days is clearcut evidence the Twins should have put him on the DL earlier, but the pitching coach not knowing what the acronym WAR stands for isn't evidence the organization is behind the times WRT "stats." Do I have that correct?

[Willihammer]

Let me get this straight. You won't be satisfied that the Twins like information until they install Pitch F/x machines in every minor league ballpark without the help of the other 29 MLB teams? I see.

 

Well, that is what Jack Goin wants to do. Jack Goin is the information guy. You need the tools to get the info.

 

So, yes. Until they make that a priority, and go do it, I personally will remain skeptical that they actually do value information all that much

[cmathewson]

So in your opinion, Mastro playing in 8 games in 15 days is clearcut evidence the Twins should have put him on the DL earlier, but the pitching coach not knowing what the acronym WAR stands for isn't evidence the organization is behind the times WRT "stats." Do I have that correct?

 

I don't see how those are related. And no, you don't have that correct. They are behind the times in a number of areas. Ryan, Gardy, Andy, the whole senior leadership still have a long learning curve. Being somewhat behind the times and not caring about stats are two different propositions.

 

The posters were saying they didn't care about digital information. I thought that was a reach. I called them on it.

[Alex]

I don't get the meme that the Twins would ignore information that can help them make better decisions. .

 

Teams did for decades. Why is it surprising that extremely scout-heavy organization (with a rep for doing it well) that rarely hires people from the outside would be one of the last teams adopt or consider these ideas?

[cmathewson]

Teams did for decades. Why is it surprising that extremely scout-heavy organization (with a rep for doing it well) that rarely hires people from the outside would be one of the last teams adopt or consider these ideas?

 

Again, being one of the last teams to adopt digital information and analysis does not mean they ignore information that might be helpful. I don't have a problem with saying they could or even should do more with digital information. I just think the meme paints them as completely ignoring it, which is a huge overstatement.

[drivlikejehu]

Millions of people see Pitch f/x every day. Congratulating the Twins on using it a little is like congratulating a landscaper for using a lawnmower.

 

Has any Twins official, other than Goin (who hasn't said much himself) ever referenced a single value metric? Acknowledged the concept of replacement level? DIPS theory?

 

In literally a few hours, a reasonably intelligent person could read up on the basics. The Twins management chooses not to, and there is absolutely no excuse for it.

[DaveW]

 

In literally a few hours, a reasonably intelligent person could read up on the basics. The Twins management chooses not to, and there is absolutely no excuse for it.

 

Yes, clearly the entire front offense is just inept all around, what a great analysis. I mean if someone could spend a couple hours and make better decisions why aren't we all getting GM jobs left and right? I KNOW PEOPLE DAMNIT!!!

[drivlikejehu]

Yes, clearly the entire front offense is just inept all around, what a great analysis. I mean if someone could spend a couple hours and make better decisions why aren't we all getting GM jobs left and right? I KNOW PEOPLE DAMNIT!!!

 

This is pretty clearly not what I was saying.

 

Please just explain to me how it makes Ryan a better GM to remain intentionally ignorant of sabermetrics? The fact he is better than a random person on the street means nothing. He is competing against 29 other professionals. I realize you have no actual argument here, but just admit it rather than throwing out nonsense like that.

[drjim]

This is pretty clearly not what I was saying.

 

Please just explain to me how it makes Ryan a better GM to remain intentionally ignorant of sabermetrics? The fact he is better than a random person on the street means nothing. He is competing against 29 other professionals. I realize you have no actual argument here, but just admit it rather than throwing out nonsense like that.

 

I still don't know what proof you have that Ryan is ignorant of sabermetric stats. The best I can tell is that in this entire thread you had a pre-existing opinion and read everything in that article to fit your opinion.

 

I personally think most of them are overrated and tell a story that should more or less be captured by a competent scout. They have value for casual fans who can't see many game but have less value when the majority of games (majors and minors) are scouted and reports are filed for an organization.

 

Ryan said in the article that he trusts people, so he trusts his scouts judgements first and will also use stats and other information to verify when something doesn't seem right. What is wrong with this process?

[DaveW]

I am having beers next week with a guy who was a scout for the Twins for 3 years (before deciding he wanted to start making real money about a year ago) he also has known Bill Smith for about 20 years and said Smith is a lot more intelligent then the results indicated. He (the scout) also is very well versed in sabre-metrics etc

 

To settle this stupid notion that Ryan doesn't understand more than basic stats I will ask him personally if the front office is aware of WAR, BABIP etc, I am pretty sure he will laugh and think its a dumb question since its pretty evident that Ryan understands..., but hopefully it will allow us to put this stupid notion that gets thrown around multiple times per season to rest.

[Riverbrian]

I read the article and I get the impression that Terry Ryan runs an organization and he has people that he relies upon and trusts.

 

Sounds a lot like most businesses in all professions.

 

He says in the article that he gets an opinion from Goin on everything. Billy Beane probably wasn't a sabermetric expert and got opinions from DePodesta.

 

Epstein Hired Bill James to provide opinion.

 

I guess I just read the article differently.

[Willihammer]

sabre-metrics

 

You mean like swordplay?

[Oxtung]

There are 2 particular items in the Berardino article that left me with an uneasy feeling.

 

Ryan says. "It's part of the equation. You could talk to Jack a little more about it than me." Jack Goin, who has the unwieldy title of manager, major league administration and baseball research for the Twins, is seated across the table from Ryan.

Famously press-shy, Goin immediately picks up his dining tray and excuses himself from the table.

"That didn't take long," Ryan says, shaking his head as the gathering breaks into laughter. "See you, Jack."

 

Putting an employee into a position to fail then poking fun at him when it happens is poor managerial skills.

 

"I told him, 'Finally you're in a position, your name's going to hit the paper: Jack Goin's lineup,' " Gardenhire said. "Now what's going to happen? He's going to walk down the hallway like this ..."

Gardenhire lowers his gaze and shuffles along for a few unintimidating steps behind the batting cage.

"It'll be fun," says Gardenhire, who uses the mocking term "cybermetrics" for new-age analytics. "He's going to be right there with us. 'Moneyball!' "

 

Again we see a high level Twins employee mocking Goin for some eccentricities.

 

To me these quotes making me uncomfortable as both are very close, if not crossing the line, into bullying territory. When you are making fun of a coworker you clearly no longer respect that person and ultimately their work, even if it is at a subconscious level.

 

Together these quotes give the impression that there is a clique within the Twins organization that Mr. Goin is on the outside of.

[ashbury]

I personally think most of them are overrated and tell a story that should more or less be captured by a competent scout.

 

Doesn't that suggest an opportunity to deploy your scouts in a way that maximizes what can't be automated?

[Guest USAFChief]

I am having beers next week with a guy who was a scout for the Twins for 3 years (before deciding he wanted to start making real money about a year ago) he also has known Bill Smith for about 20 years and said Smith is a lot more intelligent then the results indicated. He (the scout) also is very well versed in sabre-metrics etc

 

To settle this stupid notion that Ryan doesn't understand more than basic stats I will ask him personally if the front office is aware of WAR, BABIP etc, I am pretty sure he will laugh and think its a dumb question since its pretty evident that Ryan understands..., but hopefully it will allow us to put this stupid notion that gets thrown around multiple times per season to rest.

I can point you to an interview conducted by TD's own Parker Hageman with Twins Ass't GM Rob Antony in which Antony can't even break out the acronyms FIP and BABIP. This interview was conducted in 2010. Maybe things have changed. Or maybe, they haven't. Over The Baggy: Q-And-A: Assistant GM Rob Antony If that doesn't work, go here: BBTF's Newsblog Discussion :: Hageman: Are the Twins using advanced stats?

[cmathewson]

There are 2 particular items in the Berardino article that left me with an uneasy feeling.

 

 

 

Putting an employee into a position to fail then poking fun at him when it happens is poor managerial skills.

 

 

 

Again we see a high level Twins employee mocking Goin for some eccentricities.

 

To me these quotes making me uncomfortable as both are very close, if not crossing the line, into bullying territory. When you are making fun of a coworker you clearly no longer respect that person and ultimately their work, even if it is at a subconscious level.

 

Together these quotes give the impression that there is a clique within the Twins organization that Mr. Goin is on the outside of.

 

I don't think you get the humor in it. They're clearly messing with him, but they trust his judgement. Gardy listened enough to him to put Mauer in the 2 hole and Willingham in the 3 hole because they get on base. That's a significant change for him. The way I read it, they're using self-effacing humor to call out the fact that they're not tech savvy. It doesn't mean they can't learn from him, but he's the expert.