Pitchers we didn't get

gunnarthor · April 18, 2013

The Twins frustrated a lot of us by signing Correa and Pelfrey (and Harden). Thought it would be interesting to see how some of the other pitchers we wanted are doing.

Baker - Cubs - started season on 60 day DL

Marcum - Mets - started season on 15 day DL

Saunders - Seattle - 3 starts, 1-1, 2.08 era (182 ERA+), 17.1ip 1.43 k/bb

Blanton - Angels - 3 starts, 0-3, 8.59 era (44 ERA+), 14.2ip 2.0 so/bb

Liriano - Pirates - 1 minor league start. Injury rehab, I believe.

Haren - Nats - 3 starts, 1-2, 8.10 era (49 ERA+), 13.1ip 17.6(!) h/9

Jackson - Cubs - 3 starts, 0-2, 6.06 era (76 ERA+), 16.1 ip, 1.59 whip

Villanueva - Cubs - 2 starts, 0-0, 0.64 era (634 ERA+), 14 ip, .857 whip

I don't remember who else there was serious consideration for. I wanted Anibal Sanchez but don't think he was being seriously considered. I can't remember if there was any push for the Twins to trade for Santana (which the Royals did).

Anyhow, 3 games is far too soon to make any conclusions (although Baker clearly wasn't ready) but thought it would be interesting to look at this now and again.

IdahoPilgrim · April 18, 2013

Don't forget those who wanted to leverage the future and sign Greinke. That worked out well for Los Angeles.

jay · April 18, 2013

Thanks for the look back. It's interesting to see how many are DL'ed or 'Marquis-esque' so far.

For sake of comparison, the guys we did get:

Pelfrey - 3 starts, 2-1, 7.30 era (56 ERA+), 12.1 IP, 1.95 WHIP (5.17 xFIP)

Correia - 3 starts, 1-1, 2.95 era (137 ERA+), 21.1 IP, 1.22 WHIP (4.22 xFIP)

PseudoSABR · April 18, 2013

Lannan 3 starts, 0-1, 6.14 ERA (68 ERA+), 14.2 IP , 4.3 K/9

--

I like the idea of keeping track of these guys. And I think a look at the list--if it tells anything--suggests that identifying good value in middle-tier free agent pitchers is a really difficult thing to do with any precision or consistency, and as the sample size becomes more useful, I think this conclusion only becomes more concrete.

cmathewson · April 18, 2013

McCarthy: 0-2 7.47 ERA 2.03 WHIP

jay · April 18, 2013

Don't forget those who wanted to leverage the future and sign Greinke. That worked out well for Los Angeles.

a. He never would have plunked Quentin if the Twins had signed him.

b. Are we really passing judgment on a 6 year deal in April of the first year?

IdahoPilgrim · April 18, 2013

a. He never would have plunked Quentin if the Twins had signed him.
b. Are we really passing judgment on a 6 year deal in April of the first year?

A. No, but something else could just have easily happened with somebody else. Stuff happens all the time.

B. Yes. That's the point of this thread. It was stated up front that this was based on a small sample size. If you're going to make the argument that long-term the deal will be a good one, that same argument can be made about anybody we talk about here.

And, I will admit, I'm probably soured a little bit because I had Greinke on my fantasy team (along with Jered Weaver) and thus I am now in last place pitching wise.

jay · April 18, 2013

And, I will admit, I'm probably soured a little bit because I had Greinke on my fantasy team (along with Jered Weaver) and thus I am now in last place pitching wise.

You and I both, brother.

beckmt · April 18, 2013

Small sample size and Correia and Saunders have been noted in other posts to have good Aprils. Will be more interesting at the end of June, when we may be able to draw some very good conclusions.

gunnarthor · April 18, 2013

One thing to note though is how screwed the Twins would have been if they had planned on an April rotation of say, Baker, Diamond, Marcum, Deduno and Worley.

Mike Sixel · April 18, 2013

How does signing Grienke mortgage the future? Can't recall if you had to give up a draft pick for him, but if today someone offered you the choice of Grienke for the next 6 years, or Sean Manea, who would you take? It's not like the money would be spent elsewhere.

cmathewson · April 18, 2013

How does signing Grienke mortgage the future? Can't recall if you had to give up a draft pick for him, but if today someone offered you the choice of Grienke for the next 6 years, or Sean Manea, who would you take? It's not like the money would be spent elsewhere.

I would be very reluctant to give a pitcher like him a long-term deal like that. All you have to do is look at some of those deals to know they are very high risk (Zito, Hampton, Santana).

Mike Sixel · April 18, 2013

How does it mortgage the future, not, would you ever give a pitcher a long term deal.

they won't need the money for at least 3 years, maybe more. They lose another $20MM in payroll in the next two years, they get $25MM more in revenue starting next year.

I get the risk aversion to signing pitchers to long term deals, I don't get how doing so this year mortgages the future.

drjim · April 18, 2013

Grienke wasn't coming here after the last two seasons and it is unrealistic to expect the Twins to outbid the two LA teams, Texas, etc for a pitcher.

Twins could easily have spent more and have more revenues than in the past but that is still a bidding war they cannot win.

ashbury · April 18, 2013

How does it mortgage the future, not, would you ever give a pitcher a long term deal.

they won't need the money for at least 3 years, maybe more. They lose another $20MM in payroll in the next two years, they get $25MM more in revenue starting next year.

I get the risk aversion to signing pitchers to long term deals, I don't get how doing so this year mortgages the future.

The answer comes back to risk. Unless you think the '13-'14 squads are playing for the postseason, you are taking on the risk of injury in those years for the value of having the guy in '15 and beyond. Unless you think Grienke is the last bus leaving this station for the next three years, wait until the offseason after next to pull the trigger on that one stud pitcher; then the risk and the reward match up.

drjim · April 18, 2013

How does it mortgage the future, not, would you ever give a pitcher a long term deal.

they won't need the money for at least 3 years, maybe more. They lose another $20MM in payroll in the next two years, they get $25MM more in revenue starting next year.

I get the risk aversion to signing pitchers to long term deals, I don't get how doing so this year mortgages the future.

This is easy. To get Grienke it would have taken a 7 or 8 year deal to beat the Dodgers at around $25 mil a year. It is possible he is effective for this deal (current fluke injury notwithstanding) but if he was to suffer an injury or a loss of effectiveness that would be a lot of money to have on the books. That is real space that will be needed to potentially lock up Sano, Meyer, Arcia, whatever other prospects might make it while also hampering any other free agent signings/trades down the road.

This is a lot of ifs, but it is a huge risk for a team like the Twins who are and will be middle of the road in revenues.

edavis0308 · April 18, 2013

You and I both, brother.

I'm sure KC is available in both of your leagues to fill the void.

drjim · April 18, 2013

The answer comes back to risk. Unless you think the '13-'14 squads are playing for the postseason, you are taking on the risk of injury in those years for the value of having the guy in '15 and beyond. Unless you think Grienke is the last bus leaving this station for the next three years, wait until the offseason after next to pull the trigger on that one stud pitcher; then the risk and the reward match up.

Exactly. This goes for other free agent pitchers as well. Stopgaps made sense but the big signing was still overly risky for the current state of the team.

Mike Sixel · April 18, 2013

Sano won't be up until Grienke is in his 3rd year, with 6 years of team control....well, NOT ONE prospect in the minors today needs to be signed to be big deal in the first 4-6 years of the Greinke deal. Not one. By then Mauer is likley off the books, there's another $23MM on top of the $20MM from Morneau and Willingham, and the $25MM in additional revenue. That's a lot of money not going to players. Heck, pay Grienke $30MM this year, and less in future years....

"only sign him if he's the last piece" would, taking it to it's logical conclusion, lead you to never sign an expensive FA to build a team, only to finish one. Is that the argument, I just want to understand your statement. If it is, why is anyone upset they did not sign any good players this year*?

*assuming the players they signed this year are cheap, not good

Ultima Ratio · April 18, 2013

A. No, but something else could just have easily happened with somebody else. Stuff happens all the time.

This is not a good reason to either do or not do anything.

jokin · April 18, 2013

a. He never would have plunked Quentin if the Twins had signed him.
b. Are we really passing judgment on a 6 year deal in April of the first year?

Hey, you can't have an online forum without judgement passing. Knee-jerk reactions are better than no reaction at all.

jokin · April 18, 2013

Lannan 3 starts, 0-1, 6.14 ERA (68 ERA+), 14.2 IP , 4.3 K/9

--

I like the idea of keeping track of these guys. And I think a look at the list--if it tells anything--suggests that identifying good value in middle-tier free agent pitchers is a really difficult thing to do with any precision or consistency, and as the sample size becomes more useful, I think this conclusion only becomes more concrete.

Thinking and/or researching before you post also comes in handy. It helps especially if you claim to "like the idea of keeping track of these guys."

Lannan in 2013:

[TABLE=class: tablehead mod-player-stats]

[TR=class: colhead]

DATE

OPPONENT

RESULT

[TD=class: textright]IP[/TD]

[TD=class: textright]H[/TD]

[TD=class: textright]R[/TD]

[TD=class: textright]ER[/TD]

[TD=class: textright]HR[/TD]

[TD=class: textright]BB[/TD]

[TD=class: textright]SO[/TD]

[TD=class: textright]GB[/TD]

[TD=class: textright]FB[/TD]

[TD=class: textright]TBF[/TD]

[TD=class: textright]Pit[/TD]

[TD=class: textright]Dec.[/TD]

[TD=class: textright]Rel.[/TD]

[TD=class: textright]ERA[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: oddrow]

04/17

@ CIN

L 2-11

[TD=class: textright]1.2[/TD]

[TD=class: textright]8[/TD]

[TD=class: textright]6[/TD]

[TD=class: textright]1[/TD]

[TD=class: textright]0[/TD]

[TD=class: textright]3[/TD]

[TD=class: textright]9[/TD]

[TD=class: textright]14[/TD]

[TD=class: textright]66[/TD]

[TD=class: textright]L(0-1)[/TD]

[TD=class: textright]--[/TD]

[TD=class: textright]6.14[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: evenrow]

04/12

@ MIA

W 3-1

[TD=class: textright]6.0[/TD]

[TD=class: textright]3[/TD]

[TD=class: textright]1[/TD]

[TD=class: textright]0[/TD]

[TD=class: textright]1[/TD]

[TD=class: textright]2[/TD]

[TD=class: textright]11[/TD]

[TD=class: textright]7[/TD]

[TD=class: textright]22[/TD]

[TD=class: textright]92[/TD]

[TD=class: textright]--[/TD]

[TD=class: textright]2.77[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: oddrow]

04/06

vs KC

W 4-3

[TD=class: textright]7.0[/TD]

[TD=class: textright]5[/TD]

[TD=class: textright]3[/TD]

[TD=class: textright]0[/TD]

[TD=class: textright]5[/TD]

[TD=class: textright]18[/TD]

[TD=class: textright]3[/TD]

[TD=class: textright]27[/TD]

[TD=class: textright]92[/TD]

[TD=class: textright]--[/TD]

[TD=class: textright]3.86[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

Hmm, one bad start in 3, directly attributable to the knee injury that he complained was causing him trouble throughout his appearance, he's seeing a specialist today.

[TABLE=class: tablehead mod-player-stats]

[TR=class: oddrow]

[/TD]

[TD=class: textright]

[TD=class: textright][/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: evenrow]

[/TD]

[TD=class: textright]

[TD=class: textright][/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: oddrow]

[/TD]

[TD=class: textright]

[TD=class: textright][/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

cmathewson · April 18, 2013

Sano won't be up until Grienke is in his 3rd year, with 6 years of team control....well, NOT ONE prospect in the minors today needs to be signed to be big deal in the first 4-6 years of the Greinke deal. Not one. By then Mauer is likley off the books, there's another $23MM on top of the $20MM from Morneau and Willingham, and the $25MM in additional revenue. That's a lot of money not going to players. Heck, pay Grienke $30MM this year, and less in future years....

"only sign him if he's the last piece" would, taking it to it's logical conclusion, lead you to never sign an expensive FA to build a team, only to finish one. Is that the argument, I just want to understand your statement. If it is, why is anyone upset they did not sign any good players this year*?

*assuming the players they signed this year are cheap, not good

There might be a chance of acquiring him down the road. Zito and Santana have been available for free (with salary help) for the last two years. The odds of him having an arm injury increase every year, to the point where there is a good chance he will be out for more than a year of the deal, when you would have had a chance to win if you only had the cash for that one last piece of the puzzle.

Personally, I'll take my chances with Meyer. He's likely to win more games than Grienke over the life of that contract.

drjim · April 18, 2013

Sano won't be up until Grienke is in his 3rd year, with 6 years of team control....well, NOT ONE prospect in the minors today needs to be signed to be big deal in the first 4-6 years of the Greinke deal. Not one. By then Mauer is likley off the books, there's another $23MM on top of the $20MM from Morneau and Willingham, and the $25MM in additional revenue. That's a lot of money not going to players. Heck, pay Grienke $30MM this year, and less in future years....

"only sign him if he's the last piece" would, taking it to it's logical conclusion, lead you to never sign an expensive FA to build a team, only to finish one. Is that the argument, I just want to understand your statement. If it is, why is anyone upset they did not sign any good players this year*?

*assuming the players they signed this year are cheap, not good

I'm personally not especially upset with the free agents that they signed. I thought they should have signed a couple of bridge guys for the rotation (which they did) and maybe a CF on a one year deal. I hoped they would sign better bridge starters but as the other thread as shown that is a crap shoot at best.

"Last piece" is a bit of a stretch, but I would argue that a premium free agent should not be signed unless he is supplementing an established homegrown core. The Twins do not really have that right now, they may have it in a couple of years. The additional risk required because they would have to overpay in years and dollars does not make sense in the current state of the franchise. They do have the ability to take on one of those contracts for the next 3-4 years but at the cost of flexibility during that time, and similar free agents will be available in the next couple of years that they could sign instead. At this point they will theoretically be a more attractive destination if some of a young core starts to emerge (so they won't have to overpay as much as they would now) and they will avoid having to take extra risk in the next couple of seasons.

April 18, 2013

There might be a chance of acquiring him down the road. Zito and Santana have been available for free (with salary help) for the last two years. The odds of him having an arm injury increase every year, to the point where there is a good chance he will be out for more than a year of the deal, when you would have had a chance to win if you only had the cash for that one last piece of the puzzle.

Personally, I'll take my chances with Meyer. He's likely to win more games than Grienke over the life of that contract.

What kind odds are you offering, and what's the bet?

jokin · April 18, 2013

What kind odds are you offering, and what's the bet?

Can I get some of that action, too?

ThePuck · April 18, 2013

Can I get some of that action, too?

Me too?

cmathewson · April 18, 2013

What kind odds are you offering, and what's the bet?

4-1 with Grienke as the obvious favorite. I'll take your bet with a honey bee, if you're interested, and willing to stick around here to the end of the contract. I am obviously very high on Meyer and short on Grienke (because of the injury risk).

April 18, 2013

4-1 with Grienke as the obvious favorite. I'll take your bet with a honey bee, if you're interested, and willing to stick around here to the end of the contract. I am obviously very high on Meyer and short on Grienke (because of the injury risk).

Since Meyer is "likely" to win more games than Grienke, then Meyer should be the obvious favorite, no? I have no idea what "take your bet with a honey bee" means, but how about a sig bet? Since Meyer is the favorite, in your eyes, and Grienke the favorite in mine, I'll go even up: At the end of Grienke's contract, winner gets to write the "tag" (yours is currently "I've been planning it for years") for the other for one month. Deal?

snepp · April 18, 2013

Wake me in 2020, let me know who won.

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