Berríos trade

[MABB1959]

2 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Simeon Woods-Richardson and Austin Martin.  The two players we got for Berrios so the point was basically reversing the trade but making it any player performing at the level Berrios is right now.  We all love Berrios so making it generic remove the bias we might have for Berrios.

I loved watching him pitch.  Stats are one thing.  A good stat for him is number of innings pitched his win loss record is above 500.  He is on the field where as our "stars" seem to have limited playing time.  He is in a tougher division and one of his last outings was against the Dodgers.   I am a fan of players not stats.  Seemed we were finally assembling a fun team to watch.  Buxton is almost a part-time player, Correa has been out plenty too and all talks are he won't be here long.  We do have some good players but not many big names.

[Major League Ready]

13 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

On top of that also gave that pitcher a 7 year 130 million extension.   I think Berrios will improve, but there are 2 issues, one is his stuff even last year was beginning to regress.   His whiff percentage last year declined from 2020,  and this year is even worse.  2. Some of it is due to better competition on a more regular basis,  but he is losing some control.  Likely his fastball is probably needing more effort to keep it at the current velocity which is causing more accuracy issues.   It is more down in the zone than previously leading to more hard hit percentage.   

I would be a little concerned about that investment right now.  However, it's too early for conclusions.  More importantly, the extension should not be considered when evaluating the trade.  It's an entirely different issue.  He would be in his final year with the Twins so for me the issue is the Twins gave up Berrios in a lost season plus this season.  With him pitching to an ERA of 5, he would be supplying very little value this year.  Therefore, the addition of SWR and Martin comes at a very low cost.  The should we have given him whatever was needed to extend him is a different question.  On that question, I have to agree with you that the ERA and peripherals are concerning.

[MABB1959]

3 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

2 prospects both in AA

Simeon Woods Richardson is a 21 year old pitcher who has been fast tracked to AA.   After last night his ERA is down to 2.93.  He is 3.5 years younger than the average player in AA.  He had generally been known as a control pitcher with 4 good pitches working on a fifth,  sitting at 93 mph on fastball up to 95.  The month before traded to the Twins and in AA his control failed him.  His ERA was 5- 6 in the Blue Jays system.  Essentially I think they were willing to give up on him.  I haven't heard if his velocity has increased since coming over but he is back on track to being a #2 to #3 pitcher.   

Austin Martin is an OF/SS prospect.  Primarily played OF for Blue Jays.  He is a Top 50-100 prospect in all of Baseball.  His Bat is one of the best in the minors,  His OBP regularly hovers around .400.  Actually he has been struggling a bit with the bat,  but still getting plenty of walks and still sitting at .380 OBP.  His defense at short is currently rough.  However, if the Twins can help him clean that up his prospect status goes up even more, but honestly the Twins do not need that.  Ultimately he becomes a super utility in the Arreaz mold or an elite defensive outfielder.  His bat can play in the majors now.   Did I mention he has nearly 20 steals this year.   He is a very good player.  

Thanks for the information!  I do appreciate it for sure

[bunsen82]

15 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I would be a little concerned about that investment right now.  However, it's too early for conclusions.  More importantly, the extension should not be considered when evaluating the trade.  It's an entirely different issue.  He would be in his final year with the Twins so for me the issue is the Twins gave up Berrios in a lost season plus this season.  With him pitching to an ERA of 5, he would be supplying very little value this year.  Therefore, the addition of SWR and Martin comes at a very low cost.  The should we have given him whatever was needed to extend him is a different question.  On that question, I have to agree with you that the ERA and peripherals are concerning.

It is fully part of the calculation.  If he was still with the Twins the extension needed to be signed last summer when they were working on it of this offseason like Buxton.  Otherwise we are in the exact situation we are in with Correa.   He would have been playing on an extended contract if the Twins were planning on keeping him or traded in the offseason for a package less than the one we received from Toronto.   You have a player that intends to go to free agency unless given essentially #1 pitcher money.   It was a wise decision to trade him for the package we received from Toronto.  Otherwise as currently stands you would have a pitcher that is struggling to start the year,  his trade value would be down unless he turns it around,  and a player and agent that still want the big money.  It was a no mans land for the Twins.  

[Major League Ready]

11 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

It is fully part of the calculation.  If he was still with the Twins the extension needed to be signed last summer when they were working on it of this offseason like Buxton.  Otherwise we are in the exact situation we are in with Correa.   He would have been playing on an extended contract if the Twins were planning on keeping him or traded in the offseason for a package less than the one we received from Toronto.   You have a player that intends to go to free agency unless given essentially #1 pitcher money.   It was a wise decision to trade him for the package we received from Toronto.  Otherwise as currently stands you would have a pitcher that is struggling to start the year,  his trade value would be down unless he turns it around,  and a player and agent that still want the big money.  It was a no mans land for the Twins.  

I don't see it this way.  They could have kept him without extending him.  Many would have preferred we did over trading him.  Of course, many wanted us to pay whatever it took.  Regardless, we traded him with 2 months to go in 2021 plus all of 2022.  Given his current performance, that means we would have gotten two months in a lost season and a pitcher performing rather poorly this year vs whatever we get out of SWR and Martin.  I see little value in having Berrios last year and little value if he performs this way all year.  Therefore, the cost of SWR and Martin is very low.  Extending him was not entirely separate decision as they were intertwined to some degree.  However, it can definitely be separated in the sense that the cost associate with Berrios post twins contract can be very clearly defined by his extension details.  The return or benefit in trading him had nothing to do with that extension. 

[bunsen82]

8 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I don't see it this way.  They could have kept him without extending him.  Many would have preferred we did over trading him.  Of course, many wanted us to pay whatever it took.  Regardless, we traded him with 2 months to go in 2021 plus all of 2022.  Given his current performance, that means we would have gotten two months in a lost season and a pitcher performing rather poorly this year vs whatever we get out of SWR and Martin.  I see little value in having Berrios last year and little value if he performs this way all year.  Therefore, the cost of SWR and Martin is very low.  Extending him was not entirely separate decision as they were intertwined to some degree.  However, it can definitely be separated in the sense that the cost associate with Berrios post twins contract can be very clearly defined by his extension details.  The return or benefit in trading him had nothing to do with that extension. 

He wanted the near 20 million a year contract,  and the Twins would have been unlikely to outbid.  So if he was to be a Twin still in 2022 he would have needed to sign the extension like he did in Toronto.  Toronto was not willing to risk him going to free agency.  Now look at the mess Toronto is in.   We can agree to disagree.  For my calcs I am including in as part of the cost of doing business.  Or you are losing an asset for nothing.  

[MGM4706]

Anyone who thinks the Twins would be better if Correa walks is a Fool!! Best SS Twins have ever had  In field and in the dugout. Lewis can learn to play LF where Larnach has no clue on how to play the fence or put at first base and let Sano go.

As far as Berrios, he will get it together. Always a slow starter. But look at the contenders after the playoffs start. Rarely does any team without an Ace and strong number two go deep in the playoffs. Remember that when you bad mouth Berrios!! An Ace is a must!! Until then be happy with competing for a Wild Card and then sitting down after one series!!

[rwilfong86]

1 hour ago, bunsen82 said:

It is fully part of the calculation.  If he was still with the Twins the extension needed to be signed last summer when they were working on it of this offseason like Buxton.  Otherwise we are in the exact situation we are in with Correa.   He would have been playing on an extended contract if the Twins were planning on keeping him or traded in the offseason for a package less than the one we received from Toronto.   You have a player that intends to go to free agency unless given essentially #1 pitcher money.   It was a wise decision to trade him for the package we received from Toronto.  Otherwise as currently stands you would have a pitcher that is struggling to start the year,  his trade value would be down unless he turns it around,  and a player and agent that still want the big money.  It was a no mans land for the Twins.  

I think the FO made the right move, trading him when they did while he looked good and had decent numbers. His value would have depreciated otherwise if he was putting up numbers then like he is now. 

[rwilfong86]

11 minutes ago, MGM4706 said:

Anyone who thinks the Twins would be better if Correa walks is a Fool!! Best SS Twins have ever had  In field and in the dugout. Lewis can learn to play LF where Larnach has no clue on how to play the fence or put at first base and let Sano go.

As far as Berrios, he will get it together. Always a slow starter. But look at the contenders after the playoffs start. Rarely does any team without an Ace and strong number two go deep in the playoffs. Remember that when you bad mouth Berrios!! An Ace is a must!! Until then be happy with competing for a Wild Card and then sitting down after one series!!

Berrios is a good pitcher but I think Sonny Gray has been better at this point this season. If Gray stays healthy he could be our ace with Joe Ryan as a solid #2. 

[Major League Ready]

53 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

He wanted the near 20 million a year contract,  and the Twins would have been unlikely to outbid.  So if he was to be a Twin still in 2022 he would have needed to sign the extension like he did in Toronto.  Toronto was not willing to risk him going to free agency.  Now look at the mess Toronto is in.   We can agree to disagree.  For my calcs I am including in as part of the cost of doing business.  Or you are losing an asset for nothing.  

We agree in principle but are looking at it from different angles.  Many here believed it was a sin to trade Berrios even if it meant foregoing the return (SWR & Martin) and taking our chances signing him in free agency.   We could have done that and still had him for the 2022 season.  He might completely turn it around but at the moment that particular scenario would have been a disaster.  Again, many people said prospects are suspects, keep Berrios for 2022 or we will lose 100 games if you happen to remember those posts.   

No doubt, you are correct, one potential scenario was extend Berrios, give up the prospects, AND spend $140M to keep him.  That scenario had a heavy cost in no prospects and a big financial investment.  The front office weighed that cost and I assume decided they would rather have the prospects and $140M to spend elsewhere.  I would add there are a number of free agents next year that look far more appealing than Berrios at this moment and the various moves the FO made will make it very financially feasible to land one of them.

My only point was that the two scenarios could also be looked at separately.   They could have had Berrios for this year at a cost of passing on SWR & Martin.  That scenario would have also been a horrible decision.  In that scenario, the decision can also be evaluated separately.  Bottom line is we agree while getting there from slightly different paths.

[Major League Ready]

40 minutes ago, MGM4706 said:

Anyone who thinks the Twins would be better if Correa walks is a Fool!! Best SS Twins have ever had  In field and in the dugout. Lewis can learn to play LF where Larnach has no clue on how to play the fence or put at first base and let Sano go.

As far as Berrios, he will get it together. Always a slow starter. But look at the contenders after the playoffs start. Rarely does any team without an Ace and strong number two go deep in the playoffs. Remember that when you bad mouth Berrios!! An Ace is a must!! Until then be happy with competing for a Wild Card and then sitting down after one series!!

Since when is a guy with a career 4.12 ERA and a current ERA over 5 considered an "Ace"  Gray has been waaaaay better.  Hell, Smeltzer looks a lot better than Berrios at the moment.

BTW .... Larnach has been pretty darn good defensively.  He has a +7 DRS and that play he made last night going over the fence was something you rarely see Kepler get done.  

[Nine of twelve]

On 6/2/2022 at 10:48 AM, MGM4706 said:

Anyone who thinks the Twins would be better if Correa walks is a Fool!! Best SS Twins have ever had  In field and in the dugout. Lewis can learn to play LF where Larnach has no clue on how to play the fence or put at first base and let Sano go.

I know this is going off-topic, but...LF is where your least-talented fielder plays. (See Young, Delmon and Willingham, Josh.) First base requires a good glove but not a good arm or good speed. Lewis' talent would be under-utilized at either position, and we want to get the most out of our players. If Correa, Buxton, and Lewis are all on the roster going into next season something has to give, probably via trade.

[jorgenswest]

20 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

I know this is going off-topic, but...LF is where your least-talented fielder plays

I think the way teams value defense in left field has changed with the statcast data. The days of Willingham may not return. In Target Field a left fielder that can cover a lot of ground can be very helpful particularly with the more extreme shifts.

To bring it back to the topic this is where the athletic Martin may fit well defensively (as well as 2B).