Buxtons hot start

[kab21]

Is BPA code for people who always want to take a hitter with the first pick? I think for some people it stands for Batter Pick, Always.

 

This year should be a good test case as the offensive options do not look to be overly special.

 

Are you kidding me? it means don't reach for a less talented player just because it fills a need. As of right now I don't think the pitchers after Appel, probably Gray and possibly Manaea look overly special. And I'm still on the fence with Manaea. Meadows, Frazier and Humpries all look really good.

[Mike Sixel]

Really? I read about holes in Meadows and Frazier's game in every write up. I don't see them having a likely outcome of All Star OFer. Do you? Because a number 2 pitcher is an All Star pitcher.....

[nicksaviking]

Are you kidding me? it means don't reach for a less talented player just because it fills a need. As of right now I don't think the pitchers after Appel, probably Gray and possibly Manaea look overly special. And I'm still on the fence with Manaea. Meadows, Frazier and Humpries all look really good.

 

I think you can throw Bryant in that group too, but none are standout. I think they'd all take a backseat to Appel and Gray and at best are only equal to Manaea and Anderson.

 

Some people will look for any excuse not to draft a pitcher, I don't believe you are one of them, but I thought this year will be a good test case because I think the top couple of players are clearly pitchers and the BPA arguement for a hitter holds little water because none of them will clearly be the BPA at the #4 pick.

[Mike Sixel]

BTW, I kind of hate we stopped talking about Buxton and his great start.

[kab21]

Really? I read about holes in Meadows and Frazier's game in every write up. I don't see them having a likely outcome of All Star OFer. Do you? Because a number 2 pitcher is an All Star pitcher.....

 

Again the problem is that I'm not sure Manaea, Anderson, Stanek or any of the other pitchers are #2's. Manaea is the one I'm highest on and he has a good ceiling but two inconsistent secondary pitches bring a lot of downside to the pick.

 

Contrary to your opinion I really, really want the BPA to be a pitcher but as far as I can tell there is a contingent that thinks the only correct choice to pick a pitcher and has felt this way since well before last year's draft.

[Jim Crikket]

BTW, I kind of hate we stopped talking about Buxton and his great start.

 

Glad someone else felt this way. I'd kind of avoided the "Drafting an ACE" thread because I freely admit I know very little about what the Twins should/shouldn't do with the draft.

 

As for Buxton, let me just add a reminder to anyone who is inclined to listen to radio broadcasts of Buxton and the Kernels, every game is broadcast on KMRY radio in Cedar Rapids by Morgan Hawk and is available over the web at KMRYradio.com or from a link at kernels.com.

[kab21]

BTW, I kind of hate we stopped talking about Buxton and his great start.

 

It was 1 of John's 2 discussion questions in the opening post.

[gunnarthor]

Some people will look for any excuse not to draft a pitcher, I don't believe you are one of them, but I thought this year will be a good test case because I think the top couple of players are clearly pitchers and the BPA arguement for a hitter holds little water because none of them will clearly be the BPA at the #4 pick.

 

Who has been looking to not draft a pitcher? I think everybody hopes the Twins get a pitcher and in this draft, that is very likely. Some people are, smartly, saying that the Twins shouldn't reach just to get a pitcher or ignore a greater talent just b/c that player isn't a pitcher. That isn't the same as trying to not draft a pitcher.

[cmb0252]

Who has been looking to not draft a pitcher? I think everybody hopes the Twins get a pitcher and in this draft, that is very likely. Some people are, smartly, saying that the Twins shouldn't reach just to get a pitcher or ignore a greater talent just b/c that player isn't a pitcher. That isn't the same as trying to not draft a pitcher.

 

This.

 

Everyone wants an ace to be there at #4 but if there isn't one there why reach?

 

Back to Buxton. He has started better than could be predicted but he will cool down. What he does after he cools down will be what dictates when, if, he get promoted to high A. I think if he is playing well by mid season the Twins will promote him but no sooner.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm not asking for an Ace.....you are setting the bar higher for pitchers than hitters. Because Ace=MVP candidate for hitters. Do people think Meadows and Frazier are MVP candidates?

[gunnarthor]

I'm not asking for an Ace.....you are setting the bar higher for pitchers than hitters. Because Ace=MVP candidate for hitters. Do people think Meadows and Frazier are MVP candidates?

 

Nobody is claiming a higher standard for pitchers. They are just arguing that it might be possible that a position player to be the better player than any available pitchers at #4.

[maxisagod]

I'd say Buxton could have MVP ceiling or a top 15 hitter in baseball peak. Everyone else in this draft seems a step or two below that, pitchers and hitters. I'm hoping a 3rd pitcher like Manaea climbs up to that high 2 range that Gray and Appel are currently at.

[Mike Sixel]

I must have read this wrong.....

 

"Everyone wants an ace to be there at #4 but if there isn't one there why reach?"

[gunnarthor]

I must have read this wrong.....

 

"Everyone wants an ace to be there at #4 but if there isn't one there why reach?"

 

Yes, you have correctly read that sentence and still managed to misunderstand everyone's point.

[KernelsNerd]

Either watched or listened to all four home games over the weekend in CR. Buxton is the real deal. He's patient at the plate, smooth in the field. Was hitting .563 (Midwest League lead) after those first four games. Woof.

 

Also impressed with the Kernels' 7-for-7 stolen bases performance over the weekend, which is tops in the league.

[Mike Sixel]

Not really, I don't think anyone on any website I've read has claimed Frazier and Meadow are MVP type prospects, yet people are saying to pass on the next level of pitchers because they are not aces. If Frazier and Meadows are not in that elite prospect level, why are we holding the pitchers to that level? I understand peoples' arguements, I don't think others are being consistent in their requirements.

[Mike Sixel]

Nor do I think drafting a number 2 pitchers 4th overall is a reach if no great hitter is sitting there as the clear BPA. But that is what the sentence implied, if you are not an ace, you are a reach at pick 4. I think I read that correctly.

[nicksaviking]

Who has been looking to not draft a pitcher? I think everybody hopes the Twins get a pitcher and in this draft, that is very likely. Some people are, smartly, saying that the Twins shouldn't reach just to get a pitcher or ignore a greater talent just b/c that player isn't a pitcher. That isn't the same as trying to not draft a pitcher.

 

No one wants to reach for lesser value, but why would you think it's a reach to take a pitcher but not a batter? They have to take someone, even if there is not a true #4 value. I'm not claiming to be an expert, but from my view, the pitchers look like they have much higher upside than the HS bats being discussed.

 

I'll try this another way. The college arms aside from Manaea are likely all fairly close to MLB ready. They throw hard which everyone can clearly see is the number one factor in a dominant MLB arm right now, and they have a strong grasp of multiple pitches. There, I've made a minimal case that Appel, Gray, Manaea and Anderson are in fact the BP'sA, those that think the batters are better please rebut because I've heard no legit arguement for any of the bats, only implied trepidation that a pitcher surely can't be more valuable.

[diehardtwinsfan]

And then there's the whole underslot component. I'd bet Anderson would sign underslot, and they can use that savings to get a tough prep sign... Then you essentially have 2 lower first rounders (one of which fills an immediate need), which might be a better option if there's no good standout in what you need.

[gunnarthor]

 

I'll try this another way. The college arms aside from Manaea are likely all fairly close to MLB ready. They throw hard which everyone can clearly see is the number one factor in a dominant MLB arm right now, and they have a strong grasp of multiple pitches. There, I've made a minimal case that Appel, Gray, Manaea and Anderson are in fact the BP'sA, those that think the batters are better please rebut because I've heard no legit arguement for any of the bats, only implied trepidation that a pitcher surely can't be more valuable.

 

In this draft, that's how it'll probably shake out.

[cmb0252]

Currently no one is arguing that Manaea or Anderson or Shipley or Stewert or Stanek or Gray or Appel wont be the BPA by draft time. This isnt pitcher vs hitter. This is people saying they don't want the Twins to say I'm drafting X no matter what. What the Twins need today might not be what they need in a year or two.

 

Anyways back to Buxton....in a different thread I think I remember seeing Seth say Buxton could steal 80 bags this year. Setting the over/under at 60. I'm going with 54.

[gunnarthor]

And then there's the whole underslot component. I'd bet Anderson would sign underslot, and they can use that savings to get a tough prep sign... Then you essentially have 2 lower first rounders (one of which fills an immediate need), which might be a better option if there's no good standout in what you need.

 

Mayo has him #8 on his list that wasn't updated that recently. He could sign for, say, #5 money, the Twins would save a million for their 2nd round pick. I'm not sure the Twins will do that, though.

 

And Anderson could keep pitching himself up the lists and be a slot signing.

[lightfoot789]

Nor do I think drafting a number 2 pitchers 4th overall is a reach if no great hitter is sitting there as the clear BPA. But that is what the sentence implied, if you are not an ace, you are a reach at pick 4. I think I read that correctly.

 

I think an Anderson or Manea or Stanek (possible number 3's) are better candidates than the 2 OFers who might be everyday players but not stars. I would rather take a chance on the Pitcher than the high upside OFer (Not Buxton projected great OFer). Sign below slot and get projected unsignable high schooler with extra money on next pick.

[Pitz]

I think an Anderson or Manea or Stanek (possible number 3's) are better candidates than the 2 OFers who might be everyday players but not stars. I would rather take a chance on the Pitcher than the high upside OFer (Not Buxton projected great OFer). Sign below slot and get projected unsignable high schooler with extra money on next pick.

 

 

Several people have suggested this, and I had thought about it as well. But I remember someone (Jeremy?) in another thread talking about how this is also a risky strategy. I like the idea of trying to spread out the talent if there's no clear cut BPA. However, its pretty tough to predict that 'projected unsignable high schooler' is still going to be available with the next pick. Maybe another team decides to save on their later round picks and go well above slot to sign the unsignable.

If it were to work out, it looks genius (kudos to Houston for what they were able to do last year), but I'd rather the Twins go with the top player on their board.

[Pitz]

As for Buxton, it is great to see him get off to such a hot start. From different reports I've read, it sounds like he has a great work ethic and desire to improve. Hopefully, he can continue to put up solid numbers and in a couple months maybe he'll be ready for the next challenge.

[kab21]

Not really, I don't think anyone on any website I've read has claimed Frazier and Meadow are MVP type prospects, yet people are saying to pass on the next level of pitchers because they are not aces. If Frazier and Meadows are not in that elite prospect level, why are we holding the pitchers to that level? I understand peoples' arguements, I don't think others are being consistent in their requirements.

 

Unless a prospect is Harper or Strasburg they possess question marks, risk and holes in their game. It's not that we are holding pitchers to a higher we are targeting the best player and Manaea is the only pitcher that's in discussion as comparable talent at #4. And most of the mock drafts agree.

 

rankings from Sickels mock, MLBdraftinsider, bigleaguefutures and throughthefence (in that order below). I wish I could find recent mocks/rankings places like BA, Perfect game and other similar sites but this is what I can find. Perhaps in a month there will be more mock drafts out there to look at.

 

Appel - 2,1,1,2

Gray - 6,2,2,3

Meadows - 5,3,4,1

Bryant - 3,4,3,4

Frazier - 1,7,6,5

Manaea - 12,5,5,6

Shipley - ?,8,8,9 - I have found sickels mock draft (1st ranking) with Garrioch to have a lot of question marks. I don't know if it was sloppily done or if they are seeing something that others aren't (Shipley not drafted, Gray at #6, etc...)

Stanek - 11,6,9,10 - and he will probably drop farther

Anderson - 18,9,15,14 - Perhaps he is a riser that hasn't risen in other rankings yet but these are mid 1st rd rankings currently.

[Vervehound]

the early returns from last year's draft are awesome so i'm going to give deron Johnson and company a lot of room this time around.

[Oxtung]

I have found sickels mock draft (1st ranking) with Garrioch to have a lot of question marks. I don't know if it was sloppily done or if they are seeing something that others aren't

 

These are all quotes by Garrioch or Sickels during that draft. I think they were just trying to create conversation and interest with their draft more than actually predict where people would go this early in teh season.

 

 

Garrioch and Sickels:

-We also threw a couple of changeups in there to keep things interesting.

 

-This draft is less about best player available and more about who fits in your system

 

-Let's make this interesting, avoid the obvious choices like Manaea and Stanek, and go with helium man Kevin Ziomek, LHP, Vanderbilt (NOTE: I wrote this on Thursday and Ziomek promptly had a bad start Friday night. Serves me right for trying to be interesting I suppose).

 

-I'm leaning toward going off my board...

[kab21]

I'm not sure how much weight they put into 'fits into your system' when they didn't pick a pitcher for both the Rockies and Twins. I almost didn't include these picks because it seemed like they were trying to hard too be different. Yet I don't understand omitting Shipley unless they have an opinion on him that is significantly different.

 

If anyone wants to read anything into this then Sickels did not go with a pitcher when he picked for the Twins. Sickels claims the Twins as one of his favorites and he does a shadow draft every year for the Twins.

[maxisagod]

I'm not sure how much weight they put into 'fits into your system' when they didn't pick a pitcher for both the Rockies and Twins. I almost didn't include these picks because it seemed like they were trying to hard too be different. Yet I don't understand omitting Shipley unless they have an opinion on him that is significantly different.

 

If anyone wants to read anything into this then Sickels did not go with a pitcher when he picked for the Twins. Sickels claims the Twins as one of his favorites and he does a shadow draft every year for the Twins.

 

Didn't they go with a catcher in that mock? There's an argument that can be made that the Twins Minor league system is weakest behind the plate. A top notch High school catcher would take longer to develop but would be ready in 5-6 year around the time Mauer is a free agent or at least is ready to move to 1st base for most of the time. There is a lot of college pitching bunch around the end of the 1st round, some of that could easily fall to the Twins at the top of the 2nd round. Between the trades they made last off season, the trades they could make at the deadline, and the progression of the arms from the last draft, pitching may not look like a weak spot by this time next year.