Share your trade ideas!

[Doctor Gast]

 I'm a big advocate of making trades instead of FA for filling out our roster for many reasons.

#1 It upgrades our 40 man roster- For example we can replace 2 lower valued players with 1 higher.

#2 It frees up space on our 40 man roster, so  don't lose needed undeveloped prospects.- This corresponds with #1, if you trade away 2 or more players and get 1 in return. It's simple math reduction, we free up more free space so you can have more flexibility to keep more needed undeveloped prospects and not lose them through waivers.

#3 It helps to eliminates nonessential and redundant players for players where we need depth. 

#4 It helps to to keep the salary down- FA is always expensive especially top of the line candidates. FA pays normally only when you find a lower tier left overs.

I like to trade on the stock market and I see many similarities in the basic sense with trading  by the MLB teams and on the stock market. I think there are some universal rules when trading so that what I've learned on the stock market could be applied to trading to the MLB arena.

Rule #1  Don't get emotionally attached to your stocks. There are stocks that we like, when they have reached their peak that's well over it's value, this is the time to sell. But we hold onto them for sentimental reasons until they are almost worthless. Know the true value of your stocks and don't be afraid to take   advantage of a windfall.                                                                                                                                                                                                .      Case in point, Tampa  Bay knew the value of Snell, with the hype from the World Series and him placing 3rd in the Cy Young in a shortened season they knew they could make a killing in a trade and they did. TB puts opportunity before emotions that's why they always remain competitive.                                      

Rule #2 Don't go by what people say but do your research. Many people have alternative motives when suggesting stocks they cherry pick data and overlook important factors and conditions so it's very easy to get burned. You need to check unbias information like market, company stability, CEO, underlying factors and conditions present.                                                                                                                                                                                   .          During the Maeda/ Graterol trade, I went out & checked him out. I checked a Dodger fan podcast (team fan podcasts is a good place to discover things that you usually don't hear about). I discovered that Maeda was disgruntle towards the Dodgers and that he's not that good after the 3X through the line-up. I wasn't against obtaining Maeda but I knew we could've gotten a much better deal. We could've traded  a less  needed prospect(s) other than Graterol or include Chris Taylor in the deal, which would've made it hurt much less for losing Graterol. Dodgers being proactive they accomplished their goal of dumping Maeda, obtaining Betts and got Graterol to boot plus winning the WS.

Rule #3 Sell stocks when they're high and buy when they're low. This sounds elementary but when you have sound stocks and they falls a lot, it's easy to get frustrated and sell but this is the time to double down.                                                                                                                                                                   Many fans were shouting " trade  Polanco" early this season when his stock was low. This is exactly when not to trade, we wouldn't have gotten anything in trade. He has a lot of potential, his stock is still rising so don't even think about a trade now. There were many that fit in this category this last year.           On the other hand, players like the pitchers that were candidates for the CY awards in a shorten 2020 season, most were overrated. So it would have been wise to capitalize on this, TB and Cubs did. Many were saying that Maeda was an ace, his stock was rising last off season. It would've been a good time to trade for a real ace, we could have but decided to hold onto him. His stock plummeted where it was worthless, many shouted "trade him" but now is exactly when not to trade.

Rule #4 Look for underlying factors and conditions. Keep your ears open to the news with the intention of, how is this going effect a certain area of the market? What are the opportunities to buy and red flags for a stock to sell and those not to buy.                                                                                             Underlying factors and conditions can greatly influence the performance of a player, negatively or positively. Many people cry out "stats, stats, stats are what really counts" but I beg to differ. Sure stats are essential to get an idea but factors like injuries, juiced ball, steroids, cheats, coaching, short season, long pauses and surroundings can greatly effect the outcome negatively or positively and needs to be considered. Polanco being over extended at SS, his stats didn't indicate who he is. Also Maeda's 2020, it being a short season, pandemic (he was able to adjust better than most) and being new to the division all played into his benefit.  You need to take all this into consideration when evaluating.                                                                                                  Evaluation of your and other team's players potential is paramount. You can't go by the hype with their cherry picked stats, you'll get burned. By the time news of a good deal become common knowledge, the price goes up and you've lost most of your gains. If you pull the trigger at this time odds you'll see regression or worse, or if you're lucky you break even, very rarely you see gains. But if you find the diamond in the rough that's where the real dividends lie.                                                                                                  

You can agree with me or disagree with me. I'm just showing you where I'm coming from when I give my opinions. That being said I'd like to give my opinion on the 2022 off season. Like I said before we need to focus on trading to fill our major holes. And our #1 trading piece should be Luis Arraez, I suggested him last year and so did Ken Rosenthal. He was one of our overrated players last year, even though he had slipped in value this year, he is still overrated (he is even more overrated by the Twins) for being an one dimensional player. Arraez has  very intriguing ABs which people tend to focus on and ignore  his slowness, lack of power and his liability on defense which is the reason for being overrated. He still has very good worth but the longer we hold onto him, the more his value will slip as his intrigue wears off.  He should be used to get much needed pitching. DH should be adopted by the NL this year which will open up our stock pile of DH types (due to the Twins "David Ortiz Syndrome"). The Twins need to get over this syndrome of overrating these DH types and filter them into as many trades as possible, to take advantage of this opportunity.                                                                            Although Kepler and Jeffers (I prefer to trade Jeffers instead of Garver because Garver is a more established hitter, has a much better arm, Jeffers has more trading value and I think Rortvedt can mature into a very good future catcher) have very good upside, I'd consider using them in trades if an ace is available. Here again I wouldn't substitute Kepler as our main trading piece and forget about Arraez, Arraez should remain our primary piece.                Last year I advocated to take advantage of PIT "garage sale" by pursuing Musgrove, Talion (SP) Rodriguez (closer) and Reynolds ( Buxton sub if PIT would have been open, now they definitely wouldn't). They all had good/ very good 2021 seasons and we would have gotten them cheap. This year there's opportunities with teams like MIA, ARI & OAK, so LET'S TRADE and not let these opportunities slip again. I'm planning to put together a 2022 blueprint where I'll indicate trades. If you have any trades you can list them here.

[nicksaviking]

I couldn't agree more with #1. It made sense to be attached to the players when I was a kid, but now I want to win championships, not hang posters on my wall. I cried when Tom Brunansky was traded I wouldn't anymore. OK, bad example, that was an awful trade, I'd probably still cry.

Still, there are some players I like watching more than others, but no one is untouchable if it looks like moving them will improve the team's chances of winning a championship now or in the near future.

And as far as getting attached to the prospects, that's even more troubling. Although I think that's more of a front office thing than a fan thing.

[Vanimal46]

I am with you on Arraez being the top player to trade. He’s a man without a home defensively, and teams should value his pre-arb salary + high contact skill set. Others I am willing to trade to balance the roster include:

Larnach or Kirilloff - with the clear preference towards Larnach since I think AK will be a stud. However, if either one helps bring back a top of the rotation pitcher, you gotta consider it. 

Polanco - If Arraez doesn’t attract top talent, then perhaps Polanco will. This may be his absolute peak as a player. 

Rooker - Don’t expect him to bring back more than a middle relief arm or low level lottery ticket. 

Sano - We’ll have to eat some remaining salary, but freeing up cash and 1B for Kirilloff could be worth it. 

Donaldson - Another move we will need to eat salary to trade away. Might be worth doing now while he was (mostly) healthy and productive. 

I wouldn’t trade all of these players away this winter, but I’m certainly open to trading a couple to acquire pitching and free up the corner OF log jam. 

[tony&rodney]

Proposed trade - Arraez, Duffey, Strotman, Rooker to Oakland for Frankie Montas. Oakland gets a leadoff hitter, near MLB SP, an established RP, and a swing DH/1B/OF.  

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Proposed trade - Arraez, Duffey, Strotman, Rooker to Oakland for Frankie Montas. Oakland gets a leadoff hitter, near MLB SP, an established RP, and a swing DH/1B/OF.  

I like it. I'm not sure if Strotman as the headliner is enough to get Oakland to bite, but I'm more than open to working something out. Since Oakland is incredibly trying to cut payroll from an already modest amount, I'm thinking Duffey might not interest them as much; he's going to get paid fairly well as a reliever.

Montas would be my first choice. I'd be open to lesser deals for the one year left for Mannaea too. I'd not give up as much, but I'd be interested in Chris Bassitt as well.

While he doesn't seem to be a positional fit, it would be pretty fun to talk about Matt Olson.

[Doctor Gast]

3 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Proposed trade - Arraez, Duffey, Strotman, Rooker to Oakland for Frankie Montas. Oakland gets a leadoff hitter, near MLB SP, an established RP, and a swing DH/1B/OF.  

I like this trade. My primary targets are Alcantra, Castillo and Marquez (if CO finally decides to rebuild) I'd headline Arraez, Jeffers and Kepler. If none these need Arraez, I'd swing a 3 way trade, I think Oak, ARI, CO and BAL could use Arraez.

Secondary targets are Montas, Lopez, S Gray,  possibly Manea or anyone from MIA. If we can't land any of my primary targets maybe we can land 2 from my secondary.

[tony&rodney]

8 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

My primary targets are Alcantra, Castillo and Marquez

These were my primary targets as well, initially. There seems to be backlash that these pitchers would cost too much. For example, would we trade Martin and Woods-Richardson for Castillo or Marquez?

My shift was to hope for a trade of Jeffers, Larnach, Celestino, Vallimont, and Canterino for Cabrera and Meyer.  I was willing to include Lewis in a trade for Alcantara.  I have held on to Miranda, Kirilloff, Martin, Urbina, Miller, and Sabato and virtually every pitching prospect. Trades seem like the best opportunity to improve the roster for next season. What about Miguel Sano for Eric Lauer?

I would hope that many more people could share their ideas for trades. Running back the same roster with zero experienced pitchers would be a disaster.

[Nine of twelve]

Here are my trade ideas.

Devin Smeltzer for Shane Bieber.

Caleb Thielbar for Josh Hader.

Nick Gordon for Fernando Tatis, Jr.

Griffin Jax for Shohei Otani.

Brent Rooker for Mike Trout.

Randy Dobnak for Jacob DeGrom.

Willians Astudillo for Aaron Judge.

 

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

6 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Proposed trade - Arraez, Duffey, Strotman, Rooker to Oakland for Frankie Montas. Oakland gets a leadoff hitter, near MLB SP, an established RP, and a swing DH/1B/OF.  

I thought of something similar: Arraez plus non-top-tier prospect (outside the Twins' top 10-15) to Oakland for Montas and Andrus. The Twins take the underwater last year of Andrus' contract in order to give the A's payroll relief (since they seem to need to cut payroll) and to lessen the acquisition cost for Montas, but also this gives them a decent defensive shortstop for a year, if they indeed believe that Lewis can handle SS longer-term.

Arraez is one of my favorite Twins so I don't love the idea of moving him but I'm coming around to thinking he could make sense as a trade chip, and I imagine Oakland could use his bat, versatility, and affordable salary.

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

Here are my trade ideas.

Devin Smeltzer for Shane Bieber.

Caleb Thielbar for Josh Hader.

Nick Gordon for Fernando Tatis, Jr.

Griffin Jax for Shohei Otani.

Brent Rooker for Mike Trout.

Randy Dobnak for Jacob DeGrom.

Willians Astudillo for Aaron Judge.

 

You went over budget and now must find a new job.

[Doctor Gast]

4 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

These were my primary targets as well, initially. There seems to be backlash that these pitchers would cost too much. For example, would we trade Martin and Woods-Richardson for Castillo or Marquez?

My shift was to hope for a trade of Jeffers, Larnach, Celestino, Vallimont, and Canterino for Cabrera and Meyer.  I was willing to include Lewis in a trade for Alcantara.  I have held on to Miranda, Kirilloff, Martin, Urbina, Miller, and Sabato and virtually every pitching prospect. Trades seem like the best opportunity to improve the roster for next season. What about Miguel Sano for Eric Lauer?

I would hope that many more people could share their ideas for trades. Running back the same roster with zero experienced pitchers would be a disaster.

Value of a trade depends on the needs of the team. If they have a serious need for a catcher, RF, 2B or DH. People tend to look at our needs and put a lot of extra value on these players that fill these needs. They look at these players and say we won't be able to get these players because they'll be too expensive, they'll cost a top prospect and never approach them. Last year PIT came to us and offered Musgrove (a borderline ace) to us for Larnach (which was fair), the Twins never counter offered and they let Musgrove go for peanuts. If a team is motivated to trade off players that is what we have to look at. We can obtain a player far less than others expect, you just have to be persistent and have what they need.

[Doctor Gast]

50 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

You went over budget and now must find a new job.

This person I'd never hire to handle my affairs. He'd over pay on transactions or more than likely sit on their hands and tell themselves the trade is too expensive and let some else get the good deals (pretty much what this FO has been doing and sell their Kool-Aid to anyone who want to believe them).

[cjm0926]

I was doing a little thinking the other day and thought of a trade that may be unlikely but could benefit both teams. The trade was Kepler to NYY for Luis Severino. Severino is kind of a gamble coming off injuries but is still young and was an electric starter looking like he would become an ace just a few years ago. There is nothing saying the Yankees would accept this, but the Yankees seemed heavily interested in Kepler at last years deadline and he could become their centerfielder for the next few years while being very affordable for them so they don't have to worry as much about the luxury tax. Severino also has a $15 Million option for 2023 so if he shows up, we can bring him back, or otherwise him and his salary are gone after this year