Article: Minnesota Twins Roster Projection 3.0

[Mike Sixel]

I think you're right in the sense that Benson shouldn't be a 4th OF quite yet. I'm glad that the Twins stuck with him through that initial struggle, realizing he was so far behind after being hurt all of last season and not being able to play and train throughout the offseason either. He's been much better and likely needs to continue to play most every day.

 

I like Wilkin Ramirez. Loved when they signed him a year ago. He's still not old and does have power. I like that he's right-handed and could platoon with Parmelee as well as pinch hit.

 

 

Seth, when is Benson a 4th OFer, though? If he's not great this year, can they have him on the roster next year as a 4th (likely faster, better arm, more power than Maestro)? I guess I'm asking, much like trying to keep a SP a SP instead of making him a good RP, when do you say "benson is really a 4th OFer)?

[stringer bell]

Benson has an option left, correct? I would expect that he will be sent down and play every day for the Red Wings. If he can get it going there, then the Twins can look at giving him a bit more sporadic playing time in the majors. However, if Arcia hits as I expect, he will probably be promoted when (not if) either the Hammer or the Big Canadian get moved.

[Mike Sixel]

stringer, my question is more, how long do you go before you say "I get more out of Benson as a 4th OFer, than I do out of keeping him in AAA hoping he develops into a starter"? I mean, if he 's in AAA for two more years, and then is a 4th OFer, wouldn't you have gotten more out of him if he's a 4th OFer now, rather than, um, if Hicks isn't up, I have no idea who....At some point, you get value out of a guy either through him being up, by him being traded. So, how long do you wait, vs, just call him up and either see what you have, or use him as a 4th OFer?*

 

*I have no idea if that is what he really is, but at some point, you are better off getting ML use out of him, than waiting to see what he is or is not.

[Dilligaf69]

Have to think Hicks and Maestro come north with Benson/Arcia playing everyday in AAA with callups at some point this season. Hicks may even be sent back down at some point with the other two getting an oppurtunity. Next yr When Justin is gone and probably Hammer then you have Hicks/Benson/Arcia/Maestro and parm at 1B. If everything falls into place that's probably what we are looking at in 2014.

[stringer bell]

stringer, my question is more, how long do you go before you say "I get more out of Benson as a 4th OFer, than I do out of keeping him in AAA hoping he develops into a starter"? I mean, if he 's in AAA for two more years, and then is a 4th OFer, wouldn't you have gotten more out of him if he's a 4th OFer now, rather than, um, if Hicks isn't up, I have no idea who....At some point, you get value out of a guy either through him being up, by him being traded. So, how long do you wait, vs, just call him up and either see what you have, or use him as a 4th OFer?*

 

*I have no idea if that is what he really is, but at some point, you are better off getting ML use out of him, than waiting to see what he is or is not.

I think Benson gets this year to re-establish himself as a potential starter. If he isn't up to it this year, he probably joins the Clete Thomases of the world as guys that will kick around and hope to "find it" maybe with the Twins, maybe with someone else. I really like Benson's tools and I don't see any point in having him play once or twice a week and otherwise serving as a pinch-runner and defensive replacement. However, if he can't get it going this year, it's probably time to move on to the next class.

[Mr. Brooks]

I agree. I think with a guy like Benson who has the tools, but for whatever reason may or may never develop them, that you keep giving them chances to be an everyday player until they run out of options.

Then, at that point, if they are good enough, you use up their cheap years as a 4th OF'er or some other minor role capacity, and then once they get to the point where they reach their 2nd or 3rd arb years, you move on again.

[Mike Sixel]

Thanks! Sounds reasonable as an approach, I guess. So a college guy, we'd wait until he is into his prime? Interesting, I have to think about the implications of that.

[Mr. Brooks]

Not necessarily. I'm only speaking for guys like Benson who have all the tools, but for whatever reason something isnt quite clicking.

Most of your 5 tool prospects are going to be drafted out of HS or as a 16 year old I'ntl signing.

I think you move on a lot sooner if the guy doesnt have the tools.

[Seth Stohs]

Seth, when is Benson a 4th OFer, though? If he's not great this year, can they have him on the roster next year as a 4th (likely faster, better arm, more power than Maestro)? I guess I'm asking, much like trying to keep a SP a SP instead of making him a good RP, when do you say "benson is really a 4th OFer)?

 

It's a good question. One I'm trying to get a better feel for. Maybe it's more of a gut thing of when a guy is most likely not to be a regular. I'm trying to read that situation.

[diehardtwinsfan]

You give a guy like Benson every chance to play every day until he's out of options and forces it. He's a 5 tool player who could have a top end ceiling of similar to Cuddyer with more speed and defense. His floor, which I think he's at right now, is a 4th OF. He needs a chance to develop those tools, and quite frankly he should get it as long as an opportunity provides. Once he's out of options, it's a different story, but until then, you give him the opportunity to start.

[stringer bell]

You give a guy like Benson every chance to play every day until he's out of options and forces it. He's a 5 tool player who could have a top end ceiling of similar to Cuddyer with more speed and defense. His floor, which I think he's at right now, is a 4th OF. He needs a chance to develop those tools, and quite frankly he should get it as long as an opportunity provides. Once he's out of options, it's a different story, but until then, you give him the opportunity to start.

I agree 100% about Joe. While his hitting has been subpar, he's apparently healthy and isn't beating himself up too much when he doesn't get a hit. The strikeouts continue to be too high, but slumps happen. As long as he has an option left, it is fine to send him down and wait (hope) for Joe to harness his tools.

[Kwak]

Benson's floor?--is what last year was, and this season is shaping-up to be--a Bust! He's got about 2 months to show that he might become a MLB player or else be relegated. The Twins have many high-quality OF prospects that rising in the system.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Benson can already give you elite CF defense. As long as that continues, his floor is a 4th OF. His offense is the issue at hand.

[Physics Guy]

I agree for the most part that Benson can give above average to elite defense, but not sure he can hit enough yet to be a 4th OF. Doesn't he need to hit at least .250? I might put his floor at AAA OF, unless you are OK with a .220 4th OF. I don't think the Twins were, hence going from Komatsu to Thomas to Mastro last year. Benson did hit .239 in what was considered an unimpressive debut in 2011, so maybe he's not far off. He just needs to show that 2012 was about injuries and not regression.

[Mr. Brooks]

I agree for the most part that Benson can give above average to elite defense, but not sure he can hit enough yet to be a 4th OF. Doesn't he need to hit at least .250? I might put his floor at AAA OF, unless you are OK with a .220 4th OF. I don't think the Twins were, hence going from Komatsu to Thomas to Mastro last year. Benson did hit .239 in what was considered an unimpressive debut in 2011, so maybe he's not far off. He just needs to show that 2012 was about injuries and not regression.

I dont think he has to hit .250 to be a serviceable 4th OF'er so long as he can show some power.

Mastro is a career .248 hitter with NO power, and I think most of us agree he is a serviceable 4th OF'er, so I think .235 with power would be acceptable.

[Mr. Brooks]

Benson's floor?--is what last year was, and this season is shaping-up to be--a Bust! He's got about 2 months to show that he might become a MLB player or else be relegated. The Twins have many high-quality OF prospects that rising in the system.

 

I'd say 2 months is a bit of an exaggeration. I mean, even if he only shows enough this year to relegate himself to 4th OF duty, he could still work his way into the line up after that.

It does however, make TR's job a lot easier if he DOES show us something in the first couple months, because if he shows he can be a competent every day outfielder that allows us to move Willy and Justin at the deadline.

[cmathewson]

The battle between Benson and Hicks is a lot like the battle between Gomez and Span. Span was clearly the better player that spring, and Gomez clearly needed more time in AAA. But the Twins went the other way because they wanted to show some value for the Santana trade. In this case, there should be no such pressure.

[Mike Sixel]

True, but hicks sells tickets, benson does not, yet. I still have hope he is a .275 guy with great defense and some pop. But I would bet there is some pressure to have Hicks up. But I also doubt that matters to Ryan or Gardenhire.

[Shane Wahl]

Let's calm all the homies down. There are plenty of approaches to take:

 

1: Start Mastroianni/Boggs at CF and delay on Hicks and Benson as they partake in AAA awesomeness.

 

2. Start Hicks (most likely scenario) and have Mastro as the 4th OF. Maybe even Ramirez as the fifth OF. This means that Benson, imagine this, should get some AAA batting time. Imagine that. They wrongly demoted him last year to AA in an abominably stupid move. So why not just give Benson the 3-spot in the Rochester order for awhile before relegating him to 4th OF status?

 

Clearly the floor is 4th OF: this guy is better than Mastro by a significant margin. Full stop. But that 4th OF option isn't really going to happen immediately. The 2013 could rightly end with Benson-Hicks-Arcia manning the OF.

[jokin]

Let's calm all the homies down. There are plenty of approaches to take:

 

1: Start Mastroianni/Boggs at CF and delay on Hicks and Benson as they partake in AAA awesomeness.

 

2. Start Hicks (most likely scenario) and have Mastro as the 4th OF. Maybe even Ramirez as the fifth OF. This means that Benson, imagine this, should get some AAA batting time. Imagine that. They wrongly demoted him last year to AA in an abominably stupid move. So why not just give Benson the 3-spot in the Rochester order for awhile before relegating him to 4th OF status?

 

Clearly the floor is 4th OF: this guy is better than Mastro by a significant margin. Full stop. But that 4th OF option isn't really going to happen immediately. The 2013 could rightly end with Benson-Hicks-Arcia manning the OF.

 

Abominable? Characterizing a demotion as something akin to the torture of prisoners might be a wee bit harsh?

 

They do have the very separate interests of the AAA team's ownership to consider.

[jun]

I saw Pedro Hernandez pitching in the game on TV today. Not too bad. I don't think he is going to be with the Twins, but if they need an extra starter, he is an option (and he is lefty)

 

Starters: De Vries, Diamond, Pelfrey, Correia, Worley (Deduno would be the 6th starter or long reliever)

Bullpen: Perkins, Burton, Duensing, Hernandez, Pressly, Walters, Deduno. (Fien would be the extra)

[jun]

I agree for the most part that Benson can give above average to elite defense, but not sure he can hit enough yet to be a 4th OF. Doesn't he need to hit at least .250? I might put his floor at AAA OF, unless you are OK with a .220 4th OF. I don't think the Twins were, hence going from Komatsu to Thomas to Mastro last year. Benson did hit .239 in what was considered an unimpressive debut in 2011, so maybe he's not far off. He just needs to show that 2012 was about injuries and not regression.

 

I totally agree, we don't need another Butera in the outfield since we have one as the catcher and another one as the middle infielder. Enough is enough.

[jun]

I really see another year where the starting staff is in flux most of the season. We have 3 gimpy arms in Diamond, Pelfrey, and Worley. Our addition of Correria is to be an innings eater but his history would suggest he will be demoted to the bullpen at some point due to ineffectivess and Hendriks sent to AAA for more refinement. I haven't seen the improvement in Hendriks to warrant a spot in the rotation. Still no out pitch and very much suseptible to the long ball. A long look at Deduno, Hernandez, Walters and De Vries (a continued pleasand surprise) needs to be done yet this spring. My starters going North would be Worley, Pelfrey, Correria (only cuz I hafta), DeVries, Deduno. ( Diamond DL)

The bullpen isn't that hard to figure out. Perkins-closer. Burton-setup Duensing-LH specialist. Fien should be in as a 7th inning guy. Pressley wins a spot, you can always return him to the Sox later if he falters, Wood-paying him, so he comes North. So the final spot goes to either Roenicke, Robertson, Hernandez, or Burnett. Right now I'd go with Hernandez. LH has done well this spring. Robertson is to inconsistent. Burnett goes back to AAA with his option and poor pitching. Roenicke you pass through wavers and hope for the best.

 

Agreed. However I believe Hernandez has earned a spot in the bullpen. Fien would be the 7th or 8th man in the bullen.

[jokin]

Starters: De Vries, Diamond, Pelfrey, Correia, Worley (Deduno would be the 6th starter or long reliever)

Bullpen: Perkins, Burton, Duensing, Hernandez, Pressly, Walters, Deduno. (Fien would be the extra)

 

Your SP projection is close, but if Diamond is scheduled to have his first start on April 12, Deduno, or someone else, is getting at least a start or two in early April.

 

Regarding the BP, a few things we know for certain:

 

1) The Twins won't have the next 3-4 potential starters on their depth chart as role players in the bullpen. Duensing, for sure, but at most, only one of the other 3, likely dependent on...

 

2) ...Just how soon Swarzak becomes available for long relief. The Twins do love their mop-up man doing all the hard mopping.

 

3) And they love Burnett, too. And Fien has done nothing to change their plans for him, either. And Wood is there to justify his signing.

[jun]

I have a hard time seeing Benson or Escobar on the major league roster as backups. While that maybe their ceilings, I don't think we can say that for sure, yet. They both need regular AB's and a chance to improve their games, if you believe either can be a major league regular. Having Escobar around as a backup to the utility man(Carroll) doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Benson almost certainly needs regular AB's at this point of his career to be productive. He wouldn't get that as the 5th OF and probably wouldn't as the 4th.

 

I think Butera makes the team. His presence doesn't take AB's from Mauer or Doumit, on the contrary, his presence or somebody like him, probably means those 2 get more AB's. If Butera takes a few AB's from some other backup, which is really the case, that isn't going to hurt the offense that much.

 

I think DeVries makes the team, either as the 5th starter or a long reliever. Although there are ways for Deduno to make the team, he probably begins in AAA. Burnett hasn't pitched himself to AAA, yet, but he better step it up. I think the Twins keep Pressly, his upside is probably higher than Roenicke or Wood and they can't keep all three.

 

I think Robertson goes to AAA and the Twins want to keep Hernandez starting, at least for now, so he goes to AAA as well.

 

As far as comparing MacPhail and Ryan. Ryan did a much better job getting his team to the postseason and having a competitive team year after year. Ryan was/is much better at building a farm system. MacPhail had 2 teams get to the postseason, neither of whom was among the top 10 teams in baseball in those years, by most measures. That those teams won was probably a greater testiment to Kelly's skill as a manager than MacPhail's at roster building. It was another example of getting hot and lucky in the postseason rather than having the best team in the postseason.

 

I agree with you Benson should not be on the major league roster. However I have a hard time to find any difference between Escobar and Florimon except that Escobar has hit better than Florimon in the spring. I really don't understand why people are so high on Florimon, he is clearly the Butera in the middle infield. Btw, is his defense really that good?

[stringer bell]

The bullpen is still shaking out IMHO. I think the Twins want a third lefty in the 'pen and I think Robertson has pitched himself into contention. Ryan told me he liked what he saw a week ago when he faced Tampa. He has had one outing since and pitched two scoreless innings. I think Burnett is now on the outside looking in and that one bullpen spot will be going to someone who is not making the starting rotation. Right now I see Diamond and Swarzak DLed, Worley, Correia, Pelfrey, De Vrieze, and Deduno starting, with Walters, going to the bullpen. The rest of the bullpen: Perkins, Burton, Duensing, Robertson, Fien, and Pressley. That would necessitate making space for Walters and Deduno. Wood and Roenicke could both be outrighted, I guess.

[stringer bell]

After sleeping on it, I have changed my bullpen projection. I think Roenicke makes the club at the expense of Fien. Roenicke is more suited to long relief and Fien has that option remaining. I like Fien and expect he will be back with the Twins before April is over, but without having a true long man it probably makes sense to keep Roenicke.