Hicks - Hunter comparison

[jokin]

Point number 1: Sample size much? This was one game. One good game, but seriously this may be the best game of his career. One game should not make a decision on where he ends up.

 

Point number 2: I'm not sure about the Hicks/Hunter comparrison, and to be honest, any Hunter comparrison is dangerous. Hunter was a late bloomer. That rarely happens. Hicks could do it, yes... and that's far more likely given that they are both hitting the bigs at a very young age, but to project that type of improvement on Hicks would hardly be fair to him. Not to mention the fact that their hitting styles are nothing alike.

 

I'm confident that Hicks will be an impactful player once he finally sticks. While it's exciting to see what he did last year, albeit in AA and is certainly the #1 topic this spring, it's important to remember that way back a "toolsy" Herman Hill was once the talk of spring training before he ended up on a likely 4th OF track before his tragic demise. Not saying that Hicks is Hill, just that thus far this spring Hick's numbers have come against an average pitcher experience level of AAAA, at best. The Twins should handle this potentially huge asset carefully to maximize his value. Is he capable of a Hunter-esque career, albeit in his own style in producing the numbers? Absolutely. Should he be annointed as such now? Definitely not. The body of evidence is simply not there to label him as "can't miss" and applying the label could damage his development. The Twins would be wise to continue to monitor his progression carefully. I hope he makes it North in the opening day lineup and hits the ground running, ala Harper (sans the delayed call-up). If the Twins don't bring him up right away, or demote him shortly after an early season failed tryout, it's no reason to panic and every reason to continue the Twins steady and patient course with Hicks, just as they did with Hunter.

 

The unbiased, and unemotionally attached, "projection experts" (ZIPS, Oliver, Steamer) certainly aren't expecting what the OP has practically deemed as the gospel outcome. He also failed to note Hicks' unrealistically sustainable recent minor league BABIP numbers. Based on their 2013 predictions of around .236/.317/.370/.687, I think realistic enthusiasm for Hicks in his first year would be .250/.330/.395/.725 (his OBP could be even better with the right guy batting #2).

 

FWIW: Hunter's first-year slash line was .255/.309/380/.689 (his BABIP dropped dramatically to .289):

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/fanpdetails...71&position=OF

[Kwak]

Hunter provided far more than statistics. He was the rock of the OF and permitted pitchers to challenge hitters because of his outstanding defense. When Hunter stole a base--it came at a time when it was really useful--often late in close games. If Hicks becomes that CF, the Twins will be really lucky.

[Top Gun]

Do a fantasy baseball draft, and then tell me what spring training means to you. I bet Hicks move up 100 places on draft sheets yesterday. you will be reading the news on every player daily then.

[PseudoSABR]

Do a fantasy baseball draft, and then tell me what spring training means to you. I bet Hicks move up 100 places on draft sheets yesterday. you will be reading the news on every player daily then.

Oh, boy.

[kab21]

I just read something the other day that compared Buxton to Hunter. Is it safe to say that every toolsy CF'er will be comped to Hunter?

[LaBombo]

Maybe if we're desperate for a twins CF comp for Hicks, we should start thinking Player B to keep expectations in line. He was a switch hitter who struggled from one side (albeit RH), had good plate discipline, some pop, and contact issues:

 

Hicks: AA age 22. 472 AB .286/.384/.460 79 BB 116K 13HR 32SB 11CS

 

Player B: AA age 21 516 AB .287/.398/.450 94 BB 117K 15HR 29SB 7CS

 

B was a third rounder who was less highly regarded than Hicks but who marched through the minors without a level repeat. Half season of AAA and midseason call up at 22. 98 AB .265/.351/.327 before knee injury ended season. Struggled following year in 392 mlb AB's posting .232/.303/.296. Put it together at age 24, 525 AB .291/.372/.434 12HR 19SB 5CS as the Twins CF in 1996...

[Physics Guy]

I can only hope that Hicks doesn't turn out to be "Player B". I'd gladly take his 1996 season for a couple of years, but hopefully Hicks improves beyond that and doesn't fall flat on his face like Player B. If so, Buxton had better develop in a hurry.

[worm33]

Maybe if we're desperate for a twins CF comp for Hicks, we should start thinking Player B to keep expectations in line. He was a switch hitter who struggled from one side (albeit RH), had good plate discipline, some pop, and contact issues:

 

Hicks: AA age 22. 472 AB .286/.384/.460 79 BB 116K 13HR 32SB 11CS

 

Player B: AA age 21 516 AB .287/.398/.450 94 BB 117K 15HR 29SB 7CS

 

B was a third rounder who was less highly regarded than Hicks but who marched through the minors without a level repeat. Half season of AAA and midseason call up at 22. 98 AB .265/.351/.327 before knee injury ended season. Struggled following year in 392 mlb AB's posting .232/.303/.296. Put it together at age 24, 525 AB .291/.372/.434 12HR 19SB 5CS as the Twins CF in 1996...

 

Yes, Rich Becker is a much better comp for Hicks then Hunter.

[worm33]

I can only hope that Hicks doesn't turn out to be "Player B". I'd gladly take his 1996 season for a couple of years, but hopefully Hicks improves beyond that and doesn't fall flat on his face like Player B. If so, Buxton had better develop in a hurry.

 

Becker was well ahead of his time. Amazing that his last 2 years in the major leagues he posted the following lines...

 

1999: 327 AB 258/395/371

2000: 357 AB 242/384/375

 

His last 684 AB in the major leagues he posted a 390 OBP and couldnt find a job after that.

[John Bonnes]

Becker was well ahead of his time. Amazing that his last 2 years in the major leagues he posted the following lines...

 

1999: 327 AB 258/395/371

2000: 357 AB 242/384/375

 

His last 684 AB in the major leagues he posted a 390 OBP and couldnt find a job after that.

 

Wow. That would make an interesting blog post. Or a neat thread.

[worm33]

Wow. That would make an interesting blog post. Or a neat thread.

 

To be fair the league AVG OBP the last 3 years is about .322. In 1999-2000 it was .345

 

But still you think maybe the Giants should have signed Becker in 2001 and had him leadoff in front of Bonds 73 homeruns instead of having Marvin Benard (.320 OBP) or Armando Rios (.332).

[Seth Stohs]

Yeah, I remember looking at Rich Becker's numbers a couple of years ago and thought that he would be much more appreciated now than he was in the mid-to-late '90s. He was a walk machine. He also struckout a ton.

 

And, to answer the question, will all toolsy outfielders in the Twins system be compared to Torii Hunter? Yes, of course. In the same way that all strike-throwing pitchers who top out at 91 yet put up good numbers will be compared to Brad Radke.

 

But, I would say that in terms of prospect status, Hicks and for sure Buxton are much more highly thought of prospects.

[Snortwood]

Assuming the Cube's assessments are close to accurate, how is Hicks going to out-walk Beltran Patience of 94 when Hicks is a 71?

[kab21]

And, to answer the question, will all toolsy outfielders in the Twins system be compared to Torii Hunter? Yes, of course. In the same way that all strike-throwing pitchers who top out at 91 yet put up good numbers will be compared to Brad Radke.

 

And that sums up my complaint with the Hunter comparison.

[LaBombo]

Assuming the Cube's assessments are close to accurate, how is Hicks going to out-walk Beltran Patience of 94 when Hicks is a 71?

 

Other way 'round. Beltran 71, Hicks 94. For what they're worth.

[UCLA_YANKEE_COLA]

Yes, Rich Becker is a much better comp for Hicks then Hunter.

 

I hate to be a stickler, but we should really refer to him by his full name. Richard Godhard Becker. Thanks.

[LaBombo]

I hate to be a stickler, but we should really refer to him by his full name. Richard Godhard Becker. Thanks.

 

Thankfully, his name was never Twinkified down to 'Beckie'.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Not to be a killjoy, but I have to second the poster who stressed that Hunter was a late bloomer. You can't project Hicks based on Hunter alone. There are probably a hundred guys in every age cohort that post similar minor league stat lines to Hunter. Only a very small number of them develop at AAA and in the majors like Hunter did. You have to compare Hicks to all of those guys, and consider all of those potential outcomes. (Although Hicks would probably have a very different set of comparables, based on walk rate.)

 

I would be curious to see what ZiPS would say about Hicks' career potential right now, but I'd give him rough outcome distribution like this: 50% bust potential (below average major leaguer), 30% average major leaguer, 20% above average (Hunter territory). And that's probably very favorable to Hicks, before we see whether he can continue his trends from 2012.

 

On the radio yesterday, Dick Bremer compared Hicks to Andrew McCutchen. Another bit of a late bloomer. I would put the odds of Hicks ever posting a season like McCutchen's 2012 at maybe 5%? (Of course, McCutchen probably won't post another season like that either!)

 

How many guys have we seen compared to Roberto Clemente, just because Clemente didn't become a star until his 6th major league season? I think Delmon Young even got compared to Clemente for awhile because of their ages and "similar stats".

 

Comparisons are definitely fun, but it's important not to lose sight of the basic facts. Hicks posted a solid all-around season at AA last year after a few disappointing years. For some guys, that's their peak; for a special few, it's part of an improving trend.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Looking at spring stats, interesting to note that Hicks has only walked 1 time in 34 PA. That worries me a bit -- I want to see that OBP translating to higher competition, that's going to be key to his potential MLB success.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Rich Becker is actually a really good comp for Hicks right now. And as a reality check, his career might be Hicks' most likely "good" outcome, at this point (although injuries certainly affected Becker).

 

Much is made of the Twins "passing the torch" in CF, from Puckett to Hunter to Span, but it's interesting that none of the three projected as stars in the minors.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Looking at spring stats, interesting to note that Hicks has only walked 1 time in 34 PA. That worries me a bit -- I want to see that OBP translating to higher competition, that's going to be key to his potential MLB success.

 

That's not uncommon early in spring, as pitchers are throwing a lot of fastballs over the plate and hitters are looking to get their timing down and make good contact.

 

Plate discipline is something I completely ignore in ST.

[LaBombo]

That's not uncommon early in spring, as pitchers are throwing a lot of fastballs over the plate and hitters are looking to get their timing down and make good contact.

 

Plate discipline is something I completely ignore in ST.

 

Really? It would seem like the pitchers who really matter when evaluating hitters in spring training would be working on the control of off-speed offerings and ensuring that the arm angle and release match the fastball as closely as possible.

 

But maybe you're right, that a crucial phase of the game magically disappears in an otherwise really meaningful set of exhibition games. Does that make a bunch more sense than the possibility that a kid who has been christened the default opening day center fielder by a borderline-negligent organization, and by much of the media and fan base as Torii Hunter and Kirby Puckett's love child, would be, I dunno, maybe pressing a bit, overly aggressive even?

 

Yeah, silly me.

[John Bonnes]

Comparisons are definitely fun, but it's important not to lose sight of the basic facts. Hicks posted a solid all-around season at AA last year after a few disappointing years. For some guys, that's their peak; for a special few, it's part of an improving trend.

 

+1. Just like I get suspicious as soon as I hear any pitcher being compared to Tom Glavine.

[Brock Beauchamp]

+1. Just like I get suspicious as soon as I hear any pitcher being compared to Tom Glavine.

 

My personal favorite is Maddux.

 

Because we all know how often guys with his ability, command, and brains come through baseball.

 

*rolls eyes*

[Otto von Ballpark]

That's not uncommon early in spring, as pitchers are throwing a lot of fastballs over the plate and hitters are looking to get their timing down and make good contact.

 

Plate discipline is something I completely ignore in ST.

Just looking at BB-Ref's spring training stats (an awesome new feature there, by the way), so far this spring pitchers are posting cumulative 3.4 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 rates. Here's how that compares with past seasons:

 

[TABLE=class: grid, width: 300]

SEASON

BB/9

K/9

2013 ST

3.4

7.1

2012

3.1

7.6

2011

3.1

7.1

2010

3.3

7.1

2009

3.5

7.0

2008

3.4

6.8

[/TABLE]

 

It would obviously be interesting to see how past spring training rates compared with the following seasons, but this suggests overall rates aren't too out of line in the exhibition season.

 

In any case, Hicks' sample is quite small, so it may not be terribly meaningful anyway. Just something to keep an eye on, especially as the games get a little more "real" further into the exhibition schedule.

[Otto von Ballpark]

My personal favorite is Maddux.

I'd like to see more pitchers compared to Maddux, fashion-wise.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Really? It would seem like the pitchers who really matter when evaluating hitters in spring training would be working on the control of off-speed offerings and ensuring that the arm angle and release match the fastball as closely as possible.

 

But maybe you're right, that a crucial phase of the game magically disappears in an otherwise really meaningful set of exhibition games. Does that make a bunch more sense than the possibility that a kid who has been christened the default opening day center fielder by a borderline-negligent organization, and by much of the media and fan base as Torii Hunter and Kirby Puckett's love child, would be, I dunno, maybe pressing a bit, overly aggressive even?

 

Yeah, silly me.

 

Over aggressive much?

 

Yeah, there's a chance that Hicks is free-swinging a bit. On the other hand, he's absolutely raking against ST pitchers.

 

I don't think a guy is "pressing" when he's OPSing at 1.287 in ST.

 

I also don't think ST numbers are indicative of much of anything, whether it's plate discipline, average, slugging, or whatever.

[Nick Nelson]

Really? It would seem like the pitchers who really matter when evaluating hitters in spring training would be working on the control of off-speed offerings and ensuring that the arm angle and release match the fastball as closely as possible.

 

But maybe you're right, that a crucial phase of the game magically disappears in an otherwise really meaningful set of exhibition games. Does that make a bunch more sense than the possibility that a kid who has been christened the default opening day center fielder by a borderline-negligent organization, and by much of the media and fan base as Torii Hunter and Kirby Puckett's love child, would be, I dunno, maybe pressing a bit, overly aggressive even?

 

Yeah, silly me.

That was an awful lot of sarcasm and snark expended making a horrible point. "Overly aggressive"? He's been the best hitter on the team. The dude is taking long at-bats and laying off bad pitches, it's not like he's swinging at everything. Your rant comes off as uninformed.