Twins thought process leading to pitching rotation

[Otto von Ballpark]

Rarely does a team go with a single strategy like you outlined. Virtually all of them mix approaches, and the Twins were no different this offseason:

 

Kevin Correia fits your approach #2 in the Twins eyes (durable innings eater)

Pelfrey straddles 2 & 3 (injury make good)

Harden straddles 3 & 4 (minor league contract)

Vance Worley probably fits plan 1 (spending) although the cost was players(s) in trade rather than money

May & Meyer probably count toward plan 4 too (rebuilding)

 

Most of us have argued they didn't do a very good job at approaches 2 & 3, and many are disappointed they didn't execute approach #1 on the free agent market, but I don't think there is anything unusual here.

[nicksaviking]

Twins had the 3rd largest drop in attendance last year. Only Houston and Cleveland saw a bigger drop-off

 

Attendance Winners And Losers | FanGraphs Baseball

 

And they ain't seen nothing yet. Wait until they see the drop in attendance this season.

[Mike Sixel]

I think the strategy was play for the future, and 2013 was all about not making any long term commitments. I think the strategy was to cut costs. So they paid low dollars for low impact guys.

[johnnydakota]

I'm not sure how using attendance statistics from other markets is really relevant. Different contexts and situations. You're telling me that the Twins still would have had Target Field half-full frequently in August and September if they were in a race? You're telling me the same number of season tickets would have been dropped this year if the team hadn't lost 95 games?

 

Personally i think most season tickets were dropped after seeing what moves the front office made...

[FrodaddyG]

You know the answer to that...they trade a low-level prospect or two for a large expiring contract from a team that's not going anywhere and is looking to shed dollars, adding to the Twins' 2013 payroll. I thought it was obvious.

This line of thinking will likely come into play for the Twins this year, just not in the direction you're referring to.

[johnnydakota]

You know the answer to that...they trade a low-level prospect or two for a large expiring contract from a team that's not going anywhere and is looking to shed dollars, adding to the Twins' 2013 payroll. I thought it was obvious.

So your saying , after assembling this team , you believe we will be in contetion and will go get a big salary contract or 2?

or even believe we will part with a prospect or 2?

 

What in the Twins or Terry Ryans past indicte this is how they operate?

[Nick Nelson]

You think the Twin Cities is some sort of magic place where market factors behave differently than everywhere else?

 

No, I think your methodology is extremely flawed. Making single-year attendance comparisons between the Twins and Nationals (or the White Sox, whose ballpark is 20 years older) without context is meaningless. If you’d mentioned that Washington drew 400K more fans in 2012 (when they won 98 games) than 2011 (when they won 80), that might have been meaningful.

 

The example of the mid-90s Twins, brought up by another poster, is a good one. In 1995 when the Twins won 56 games they barely drew a million fans. In 2005 when they won 83 they drew over 2 million. Fans – both hardcore and casual – are more interested in the team when they’re winning, and that effect magnifies over extended winning/losing periods. That’s why a third straight 90-loss season would be dangerous, IMO.

[johnnydakota]

Or they use the cash to buy more prospects, by partially or totally buying out the remaining years of either Willingham or Mauer's contracts.

So your saying if we trade Justin in july , we send his salary with him to acquire either more prospects or better prospect, or

if we trade Josh we pay his contract? in both cases the money is already accounted for , so saving an extra 30 million to buy players in mid season is untrue... the players salary is already accounted for...

[Willihammer]

Say the Red Sox are interested again, and just as a pot sweetener, or to help them avoid payroll tax issues maybe, the Twins throw in 23m cash to buyout a year of Mauer's contract in a trade for some of the pitching prospects they took from the Dodgers. Instead of trading a 6/138 player they're trading a more "team friendly" 6/115 player while lifting their own 2013 payroll back to the 100m range.

[Kwak]

I firmly believe the plan was three-fold: 1) shed payroll 2) affix blame for poor results--ineffective starting pitching caused by an over-reliance on high-priced injury-prone veterans 3) make public announcements to remedy situation, but recall prime directive and utilize existing philosophy of bargain-priced innings-eaters signed to short-term contracts. Ergo, more of the same. The team is in full-rebuild mode and requires a return to relying on young players who are: more athletic, have less wear-and-tear on the body in order to be less injury prone, and have lower salaries. All of this to be accomplished while convincing the fan base that the team can actally contend for post-season play.

 

Recall St.Peter's response of payroll between $80 and $85 million. All previous mention of payroll was vague except we were to be assured that "it won't be a problem". Now we can surmise this was the plan. Also recall lack of offers to other FA pitchers in January--that would have exceeded budget.

Recall Ryan's response to "demand on the new rotation": "Health". Blame was affixed to injured veterans which required utilization of over-matched replacements.

Signed FA were of the bargain-priced veterans only--reliance on quanity vs. quality.

[ThePuck]

After Ryan made his speech during the Season Ticket holder conference, about how he promised to do everything possible to seriously improve the pitching staff and that money was no object, how much of a dropoff in season ticket holders will we see NEXT year after seeing what he actually did?

[diehardtwinsfan]

Last fall I read somewhere that Twins season ticket renewals were at 81% already.

 

I could have sworn that ended up in Gleeman and John's recent interview with Mr. St. Peter.

[Willihammer]

They did. I'm almost positive its an old figure though. Probably closer to 90% by now.

 

edit: actually, I think they were talking about twinsfest attendance in the podcast. I will have to track down the source for that figure if I can. Maybe I am imagining it.

[LoganJones]

They did. I'm almost positive its an old figure though. Probably closer to 90% by now.

 

edit: actually, I think they were talking about twinsfest attendance in the podcast. I will have to track down the source for that figure if I can. Maybe I am imagining it.

Don't forget that ST renewals are likely inflated by 2014 All Star Game implications.

[Willihammer]

Yeah. Talk about what separates the casual fan from the hardcore. Count me out for that.

 

I think the honeymoon will be all but over after that though. They will finally have to start fielding a competitive product in order to sell tickets.

[TheLeviathan]

I can tell you as a former season ticket holder that seat demand for games I had to sell got really, really ugly about halfway 2011. As someone earlier said, you sometimes have to wait more than a season to see the full effect - after people have started to drop their season ticket packages and you are relying on day-of-game sales.

 

I expect 2013 will be a very cheap time to catch a game at Target Field unless the team does something wholly unexpected. And when you have penny-pinchers for owners, it's a tad disturbing to think about future payroll decisions when you pull significant revenues from their ticket sales.

[johnnydakota]

Say the Red Sox are interested again, and just as a pot sweetener, or to help them avoid payroll tax issues maybe, the Twins throw in 23m cash to buyout a year of Mauer's contract in a trade for some of the pitching prospects they took from the Dodgers. Instead of trading a 6/138 player they're trading a more "team friendly" 6/115 player while lifting their own 2013 payroll back to the 100m range.

 

I dont believe who pays the salary , it counts against the team he plays for , as far as the lux. or payroll tax is concered