Draft Targets

[jtrinaldi]

someone needs to be fired if the Twins take an outfielder with that pick. None of the OFers in this draft can clearly separate themselves from the others. The Twins should be taking a pitcher, middle infielder, or catcher, with an emphasis on the first two.

The top 5 is pretty much set, unless Ball establishes himself, instead of entering the draft as either a dual sport Athlete. The outfielders you are talking about are Meadows and Frazier, who both have a great ceiling. Just because they cannot separate themselves from one another does not mean that they are not good.

The Twins second pick is likely where they can get there catcher.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

I just want to ask, where you read anything about him ending up in Centerfield, or if that is just your opinion?

 

Personally, I think he'll be given every chance to stay at SS by the team that drafts him. That's my opinion. Between different sites and different conversations, people are still questioning it. When there are questions already - only 4 projected SS came were prep draftees - it's a legitimate question.

 

The top 5 is pretty much set

 

I disagree. Perfect Game and Baseball America don't even share the Top 5 prospects. PG has Meadows #3 in his high school class and Baseball America has him #3 overall, as an example.

[jtrinaldi]

Personally, I think he'll be given every chance to stay at SS by the team that drafts him. That's my opinion. Between different sites and different conversations, people are still questioning it. When there are questions already - only 4 projected SS came were prep draftees - it's a legitimate question.

 

 

 

I disagree. Perfect Game and Baseball America don't even share the Top 5 prospects. PG has Meadows #3 in his high school class and Baseball America has him #3 overall, as an example.

 

Ah, I see, you have never actually seen JP play, and forming your opinion just to start conversation.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Ah, I see, you have never actually seen JP play, and forming your opinion just to start conversation.

 

EDIT: While I can be snarky, I'm not going to be...

 

Yes, I have seen him play.

 

I don't know if Crawford will stick at SS or not.

 

I'm simply trying to present the facts: Not everyone is convinced the he can stick at SS.

[maxisagod]

If Appel fell to #4, would he demand over slot to sign him, again?

 

Assuming he has a simular season to last year with no new injury concerns, then yes he will. Boras' job is to get the most money for his clients. Boras will start negotiations by say Appel should have gone 1-1 and should get paid like he's the 1st overall draft pick. He'll than wait it out watching how the Twins spend their money on their other picks ( if I remember correctly, because Appel is a college senior he's signing deadline might be later than the other players) and then Boras will make a "compromise" the amount above slot the team can spend before they loss a draft pick, but still above the amount the team gets fined for going past team budjet. All the while, talking about Appel wiliness to go to Independent ball or excitement about the prospect of playing in Japan. So no, he won't come cheap. On the other hand if Appel is injured at some point or has a down year, than he would sign for slot. Both sides will have leverage, it how they are willing to use it which will determine the outcome and amount.

[diehardtwinsfan]

If he gets injured, he won't go high if he wants slot... I think most would be fine giving appel whatever is left of the cap space available, but if that was the case, he should have signed this year. The extra 2M or whatever it was is not nearly worth the year of FA he lost.

[70charger]

I just don't see Appel going over slot. I think he has to have been chastened by last year's experience (and if not, he's way too stupid to be at Stanford), and he also has to realize that there's nowhere else to go if doesn't sign. He has to be aware of the indy ball horror stories. He has to realize that his failure to get paid last year has already put a dent in his potential career earnings. He has to know that teams are already looking at him warily. I expect a more pliant Appel this time around.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

I really think the Twins - and many other teams - will use the approach the Astros used last year. They will have a specific amount that they are willing to spend and shop it to advisers. If they can't get an assurance that the player will sign for X amount of dollars, they'll take someone they know that will.

 

In the past, if you don't sign a pick, you get a comp pick the next year and really that's all. Now, you get the comp pick, but you lose the money in the spending pool which you're seeing is becoming a very, very big deal. It's too big of a risk to not be able to sign a guy.

 

The Twins pick will be worth $4.5m. They will be able to spend about $4.7m on that pick w/o penalty (independent of the other picks). If its the day of the draft, I get Boras on the phone and say, "Scott, we like Appel and we're willing to go up to $4.7m for him. If we don't have a verbal agreement by the time we hang up the phone, we'll look elsewhere." I'd also do that with a half-dozen other guys, adjusting the offer, of course.

[3rd Inning Stretch]

Im sure Jeremy will touch on this in his writeup (If not, you're welcome for the idea), but they have to go best player available. Manaea may end up being the best in this draft, but I think he will be gone before we pick. Stanek (if I remember correctly) isnt the hardest thrower (92-93), and that goes away from what we've been doing with pitchers. I think all the concerns about Appel (arm wear throwing 150 pitches a game, Boras, etc) I hope they pass on him if he's there. That leaves the two GA outfielders...I am actually hoping one of them falls to us, with no preference at this point between Meadows and Frazier. Despite the OF prospects we have now, I think they have the highest ceilings of anyone in the draft and that is the sort of thing we should be looking for now...none of the SPs being discussed are thought of as true #1 starters, which should be the potential for a pitcher taken #4 overall. Having too much top end talent is not an issue...and they should go for that talent, even if it's at a perceived position of strength with the current minor league crop.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think they should target that hard-throwing high schooler whose season hasn't started yet.

[drjim]

I would be be all over Appel if he fell. Seems like they should end up with a college arm unless someone really emerges.

[gunnarthor]

Karsten Whitson injured his shoulder (2013 MLB Draft: Florida's Karsten Whitson Out With Shoulder Trouble - Minor League Ball) He could have been a top 10 pick but now I wonder how much he might slide. Probably not to 42 but it would be nice if the Twins could get another solid pick with their second choice.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Karsten Whitson injured his shoulder (2013 MLB Draft: Florida's Karsten Whitson Out With Shoulder Trouble - Minor League Ball) He could have been a top 10 pick but now I wonder how much he might slide. Probably not to 42 but it would be nice if the Twins could get another solid pick with their second choice.

 

He's out for the year. I would guess he'll take a medical redshirt this year and try to come back and improve his draft stock for the 2014 draft.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Mark Appel made his season debut against Rice today. 5 IP, 5 R (2 ER), 7 H, 3 BB, 3 K, WP. Pretty nondescript.

 

Sean Manaea lost to IPFW. 4+ IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 6 K. Not nearly as dominant as his Cape Cod League Summer.

 

Ryne Stanek beat W. Illinois. 4 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, BB, 4 K.

 

Taking it on the chin was projected #1 in 2014, NC State LP Carlos Rodon. 6 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, BB, 8 K... the biggest news was that, after only allowing 2 HRs his entire freshman year, and not losing a game since his junior year of high school, he gives up 3 HR and takes a loss in his 2013 debut.

[nicksaviking]

Nice update. I guess another GA high school outfielder it is. Kidding of course. This will be a fun race to track and at this point I'd still be happy with Appel, but I can't say I wouldn't be smiling on the inside if he falters big time this year and his stock plummets. Finding himself and Boras in a position where he would actually have to prove himself at the MLB level before he gets a big payday would be fitting after stink they put up last year.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'd say it's a bit too soon to be start tracking. Come back in 3 months and we should have a real good idea who is going where.

[cmb0252]

Matt garrioch over at minorleagueball posted his top 100 list today. Good read for people trying to get familiar with the names. Here is the link:http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/2/22/4013450/2013-mlb-draft-top-100-draft-prospects

 

Also, I disagree diehardtwinsfan, its never too early to talk about the draft! With how bad the twins are going to be this year it is really the only thing some of us have to look forward to. Well, that and the development of our young players.